M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

I made a post D3 about not wanting to let a scum flum get to mafia chat. I think anything flum says from D4 onward could be tainted with the knowledge he was going over one way or the other
As much as I’ve advocated killing subs…I gunk Jamie may be my other wagon of choice.

we have 3 kills left, this should be a dunk if we can narrow it down

[Bonatogether]

hi eden

are you proud of me

[brainbomb]

If I die kill from Worcej, RDR, ghug, and Pyxxy

how many scum does he realistically put in this joke

[Bonatogether]

If I die kill from Worcej, RDR, ghug, and Pyxxy

how many scum does he realistically put in this joke

if the cej is flipper, i could see it

[Bonatogether]

If I die kill from Worcej, RDR, ghug, and Pyxxy

how many scum does he realistically put in this joke

that's also an EoN3 post, when it looked like ghuginator was a strong contender for death

[brainbomb]

My EoN 2 reads in case I die

BesharamSabi: Town

As far as I can tell they're trying their best to solve even if they have drifted back in a lot of way to either saying "this is weird" or something to that effect or now sometimes failing to really provide the internal links that make a strong case. That all being said I don't think Sabi plays like this as scum.

Bonatogether: Town

The SIMP spreadsheet was hilarious and was a strong independent source for scum!celaph read. Has engaged with the thread well outside of his celaph read and pushed Sabi and encouraged others to reconsider giving them as much town cred as we have which seems like a reasonable thing for town!bona to do.

bozotheclown: Conditional town

I think their play is straight up pretty scummy if I am being honest. town!bozo seems like he would put in significantly more effort here in terms of reading the game, referencing history, and doing some actually good complex analysis. He's made some more serious posts during N2 as he makes some attempt to read and solve the game, but the real analysis to back it up you would expect from them is sorely lacking. That being said Eden cleared him so I trust him for now. So long as Celaph isn't the flipper, which I severely doubt, I think that bozo is basically town cleared.

brainbomb: Town core

He asked me what it would take for me to town core him either yesterday or the day before and he just did it. His posts over the course of last night showed deep thought and consideration of the game and I found his overall narrative for the game has gone to be compelling. I do find his defense of Maniac odd, but honestly it boosts his town cred in my view for the arguments he employed to justify it. I'll explain my argument for why I disagree with him in a bit on Maniac in a separate post to avoid clogging this one up, but yeah.

BusinessLamp: Slight town

Blamp is one of the hardest players in the game for me to reconcile. I like his vote a lot for Celaph at the end. I like his thoughts on Maniac. I like a lot of his posts in general. But there's some weird thing nagging me in the back of my head that just doesn't sit right with me when I think about him and I find it impossible to put a finger on. It almost felt like he was soft bussing Celaph. Almost as if while voting for him he was always genuinely trying to find a way to clear celaph, but I think that's the paranoia that dooms webDip towns talking, so I'll push that aside for now. I generally like what I see overall, so I'd be disinclined to see Blamp go anytime soon.

Chaqa: Town

I really didn't like our early interactions but I think since then I've been quite happy with Chaqa's explanations and his reads and his attempts to the solve the game. I think he comes out looking really good from his push on Celaph. I think his push on Maniac is the correct one. I think his read on Blamp is sensible even though I don't fully agree. I think he backed off his push on Sabi as well when he realize Sabi and I were linked not them and Celaph. Also scum leans ghug. I think the desire to create discussion with the shift to Maniac before coming back to Celaph with a proper amount of time to spare also looks really good. All around really good D2 imo.

damo666: Slight town

I feel like Damo is normally more memorable than this, but I think thinking about his progressions post ISO is enough to be mostly comfortable with him. I think it was overly reactive to have me in his tier 4, but outright declaring at night that following the celaph kill his new kill list was "1) Maniac
2) Sabi/ghug/rdr/Jamie [that order]" without any bad math in the way suggests to me that he is thinking about this game earnestly and in a townie way and doesn't feel the need to create fake reads.


DemonRHK: Town

Even though he has an activity problem in my view, when he does post, I thought his posts have been generally excellent this game and has left me impressed. I think his analysis of what EoD1 meant makes sense and his analysis of Maniac and his prediction of D3 wars suggest good town insights. I am a little confused by when he suggested Maniac needed to be scanned and flipped (surely he only needs one to be done?). Also good read on ghug.

ghug: Scumpool

I have been mildly wary of ghug given that I expected to do a lot more for town. I've mentioned this in other games, thought kept quiet about it this one to watch, and probably would have waited one more day to say something if not for this sub kerfuffle, but ghug is certainly a player likely to go open wolfing as scum. I called him being scum in the god thread because of the way he generated miskills along with damo (due to his blatant scum slip), though I admittedly missed hard on DL8, but I digress.

The important part of this is that ghug's game there reminded me a lot of his game here with the biggest difference that it hasn't worked as well with a more competent town. D1 he seemed to subtly protect Celaph while pushing me, RHK, and Kak. D2 he aggressively pushes me to try and save celaph.

I don't think the desire to sub or his emotional reaction are scummy though. I think this drama has been hashed out multiple times here on the forum and on discord before the game started so I don't think this is some manufactured issue. I think both of y'all need to calm down and find a way not to provoke each other to keep D3 useful if the sub doesn't happen.

Jamiet99uk: Null

I think his evolution on reads like Chaqa bought town cred with me. His EOD1 looked acceptable as well even though he chose the wrong side without much explanation, it seems like he did it to break the tie and had a decently explained read on Chaqa. Over the course of D2 though his play becomes weirder. It is odd and notable he never voted for celaph at any post that day. It is also odd that his comments on celaph and speculation as to his role is really limited to one post commenting that he viewed celaph as collected and likely town. Outside of that most discussion of celaph is limited to his links to Maniac despite him basically being the biggest wagon most of the day. Hard to parse. I lean town on vibes, scum on actions.

Maniac: Scumpool

Already hashed out a billion times

President Eden: Town core

Already hashed out

pyxxy: Scumpool

The attempt to save celaph either by tying or last minute getting me killed strikes me as highly suspicious now that we know Celaph is the god father. Perhaps he got cold feet on the bus when he realized there was a chance to save the godfather and as a new forum mafia player didn't understand the follow on effects of that decision? Regardless, that vote looks highly suspect. Celaph's strong defense of him could point to a pocket attempt of a newbie or an effort to save scum. Normally I would lean the former, but part of me thinks the latter under the hope of being able to coach him as pyxxy is clearly a smart new player.

His other posts and hunting strike me as smart new town as well. I would say this is my weakest scum read despite that vote behavior being pretty scummy

rdrivera2005: Scumpool

Post-carnival I'd expect a much higher quality of analysis from RDR. I found his posts lazy, ad hoc, and illogical. Felt like he didn't care really if he were right or wrong and was just going through the motions in an attempt to survive rather than contribute.

worcej: Scumpool

I feel like this is scum trying to setup a miskill on me again. Worcej in his mentions of me during D2 seems to heavily imply that he was looking at late unexplained shifters onto to Kak as the primary source of scum targets if celaph flipped scum. He says these are the people he wants to look at. He also indicated earlier in that post he found my votes easily explainable.

Maniac moves to Kak
Celaph moves to Kak - self-saving IMHO
Chaqa moves to Celaph - once again tying the vote...
Bozo moves to Kak
Blamp moves to Kak
Jamie moves to Kak

However, now in the night where we have celaph as known scum we have blamp sailing high without much explanation, me at the bottom with Jamie and Sabi which makes no sense given his prior explanations. To me it seems like he's just lazily aggregating reads by others and tossing them together into a mix without much thought at all and calling a day and hoping no one notices.

he writes the most about ghug and definetely distances ghug hard here.
his scumpool includes rivera worcej and pyxxy and he generously townreads bona there and credits bona with catching celaph with his simp study

[Bonatogether]

gonna go to bed

will do more rereads tomorrow

[brainbomb]

Kill RDR after me and game will be over. Seeya again

I look at this post and think that fluminator likes winning. fluminator stating exactly what town needs to do to win seems completely preposterous. I would consider this to be highly out of character for flum to tell us exactly what to do to win. I dont think he dislikes rdrivera enough to do that

[brainbomb]

lets go jamie

you were first to buy Jamies cop
scan on maniac

why?

[brainbomb]

Another newbie Q, from the game start post:

"​Order of Operations

Roleblock
Kills
​Janitoring
Investigations
Saves"

What is the order of operations if JOAT uses vig but is also killed by mafia during the same night?

Is it bullet time where both shots fly past each other towards their targets? Or do mafia bullets travel at supersonic scum speeds and kill the JOAT before they can take their shot?

Hypothetically speaking.

Pow! Simultaneous death!

So this sorta looks good that pyxxy is asking this publicly and getting a public reply imo

[brainbomb]

Pow! Simultaneous death!

Thank you Mr. BobMcBoc sir.

That would make it pretty unlikely that damo was JOAT then, imo, given how much momentum there was behind having the JOAT shoot Maniac. It's more like that JOAT just wasn't convinced in the idea of shooting Maniac. Or am I completely off base here?

Actually nevermind I think this is WIFOM. @TFB please confirm if I'm using that phrase correctly.

Why do you need tfb to verify what wifom is?
im assuming this was from a prior topic?

[brainbomb]

Thank you Mr. BobMcBoc sir.

That would make it pretty unlikely that damo was JOAT then, imo, given how much momentum there was behind having the JOAT shoot Maniac. It's more like that JOAT just wasn't convinced in the idea of shooting Maniac. Or am I completely off base here?

Actually nevermind I think this is WIFOM. @TFB please confirm if I'm using that phrase correctly.

WIFOM comes into play whenever you're trying to intuit whether someone will or or has made the predictable "optimal play" or the generally "suboptimal play" that is less predictable. Think of it as different but flowing from the same root as yomi concepts in the FGC. In mafia contexts it's generally used to handle the unbreakable argument between X person isn't Y because they would have done Z and the natural response X person is still Y because they did A knowing that others knew they would do Z and the infinite argument that continues.

In this case I don't think it's WIFOMy as not all motive speculation is necessarily WIFOMy even though a lot of it does end up being so.

id need an expert analyst
to tell me why tfb needs to
openly coach a scum
buddy on what wifom is. it feels pretty unlikely as this whole convo wouldve just never happened in thread at all. unless we think this is scum theatre

[brainbomb]

Listen.

I feel for flum. Subbing in 4000 posts behind is no laughing matter.

The fact of the matter is this:

If GHUGIMATOR IS SCUM - We have to get him today. This slot now has had NO time to formulate with the remaining scumteam, and only has what was said in the past to go off of. If Flum is scum and makes it to night, it will be exponentially harder to flip later.

too over eager to flip the goon?
I need more opinions on this. I kinda feel
like this is legit

[brainbomb]

okay, my poe is just worcej and bona at this point

AMA

[BobMcBob]

##Call GM if the flipper fails to tell you what they want to flip as by end of day 1 what happens?

No comment.

you cant tell us if you would give them extra time or rng a role or disqualify the role from getting too choose ?

pardon me but Im pretty sure we have a right to know if a special rule is possible . you dont have to verify if such a rule actually happened

I would randomise it.

[pyxxy]

Thank you Mr. BobMcBoc sir.

That would make it pretty unlikely that damo was JOAT then, imo, given how much momentum there was behind having the JOAT shoot Maniac. It's more like that JOAT just wasn't convinced in the idea of shooting Maniac. Or am I completely off base here?

Actually nevermind I think this is WIFOM. @TFB please confirm if I'm using that phrase correctly.

Why do you need tfb to verify what wifom is?
im assuming this was from a prior topic?

Ah so before this game even started TFB introduced me to the concept of WIFOM like 1-2 months ago or something. This is me basically making a callback to that, in like a poke in the ribs kinda way.

Kill RDR after me and game will be over. Seeya again

I look at this post and think that fluminator likes winning. fluminator stating exactly what town needs to do to win seems completely preposterous. I would consider this to be highly out of character for flum to tell us exactly what to do to win. I dont think he dislikes rdrivera enough to do that

....is this WIFOM?

"There's no way Flum would just tell us the answer and give up on winning like this....so what if he did "

[pyxxy]

okay, my poe is just worcej and bona at this point

AMA

1. worcej > bona, ya?

2. Does this mean that bona's Demon analysis convinced you that Demon is town?

3. What happened to your feelings about me?

4. What did you get for your birthday?

[rdrivera2005]

rdrivera2005
worcej
Jamiet99uk
DemonRHK
pyxxy

let's play: can we pick 1 person out of 5, with 3 tries and weeks of interactions?

town has this if we just do the rereads and keep in the POE

Jamiet was scanned town. Replace him by Brainbomb that isn't clear on any way.

[rdrivera2005]

I made a post D3 about not wanting to let a scum flum get to mafia chat. I think anything flum says from D4 onward could be tainted with the knowledge he was going over one way or the other
As much as I’ve advocated killing subs…I gunk Jamie may be my other wagon of choice.

Why people aren't fucking reading the game?

[rdrivera2005]

Actually nevermind I think this is WIFOM. @TFB please confirm if I'm using that phrase correctly.

Why do you need tfb to verify what wifom is?
im assuming this was from a prior topic?

Ah so before this game even started TFB introduced me to the concept of WIFOM like 1-2 months ago or something. This is me basically making a callback to that, in like a poke in the ribs kinda way.

Kill RDR after me and game will be over. Seeya again

I look at this post and think that fluminator likes winning. fluminator stating exactly what town needs to do to win seems completely preposterous. I would consider this to be highly out of character for flum to tell us exactly what to do to win. I dont think he dislikes rdrivera enough to do that

....is this WIFOM?

"There's no way Flum would just tell us the answer and give up on winning like this....so what if he did "

Yes, this is a great example of WIFOM.

The hard part of analyzing Flum is that he was the main counterwagon both D4 and D5. And he was likely to flip, so his partner could have even bussed him.

Looking only the votes Brain looks the worst for the way D4 went. D5 EOD can't be really usefull because people decided to hammer.