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I’ve been keeping quiet about this, but there’s some chance I die I think. I find it oddly suspicious that TFB is still alive. I think he should be kept in the picture if he stays alive much longer.

Got busy with work so this is shittier than I wanted it to be but c'est la vie

End of Day wagons up to EoD6 for reference:

DAY ONE:
Fluminator (8): Jamiet99uk, TheFlyingBoat, damo666*, Chaqa, Hellenic Riot, rdrivera2005, bozotheclown, ghug
BobMcBob (5): Maniac, DeathLlama8, Durga, celaph, kgray
TheFlyingBoat (4): BobMcBob, Bonatogether, BusinessLamp, DemonRHK
Hellenic Riot (1): goldfinger0303
ghug (1): Vecna
Durga (1): Donny Dude
rdrivera2005 (1): Fluminator

DAY TWO:
celaph (9): Vecna, TheFlyingBoat, ghug, Chaqa, DemonRHK, bozotheclown, Donny Dude, Jamiet99uk, rdrivera2005
TheFlyingBoat (7): Bonatogether, celaph, kgray, BusinessLamp, BobMcBob, Durga, Hellenic Riot
BobMcBob (3): Maniac, damo666, goldfinger0303

Focusing on D1-2 where we have the most info about alignments, it seems that the following things are true:

It is exceedingly unlikely that Maniac is scum. That 3 scum would pop on one wagon together D1 seems unlikely to me, especially given how safe and easy Flum was to ride and how unlikely it is scum seriously wanted to save Flum.

It is almost certain to me that the last two scum were either both on Flum or one on me and one on Flum, with the latter seeming more likely just because I doubt scum would want 4 of the 5 scum members to be clumped on two wagons D1 and link themselves so closely, and would rather prefer to create distance. For the latter to be true, Bob must be scum given all the other votes that have been cast on the third major wagon are known town.

For Day 2, the possibility of it being a 1-3-1 split seems increasingly possible to me. This would require Damo to be the GF and for Bob to the be the goon if you you assume Bob is town. Damo theoretically would have cast this vote on him to increase Bob's wagon in size knowing either it could created distance and would be a good looking bus if Bob were flipped given the timing or if Bob's wagon melts away and the active scum manage to force a miskill, all the better as you create the distance without even having to get the miskill. The more I look the 2-3 split is starting to make less sense to me given the way the wagon arose so quickly on Celaph. There was no need for scum to do that in that context.

Gold seems town to me given the way that the Vecna-HR-Gold thing worked out as Vecna could have just taken the easy miskill on HR rather than switching to gold, which leaves Damo as the only way for the 1-3-1 split to make sense to me.

If I die, kill damo, then kill Bob.

NIGHT HAS ENDED. PLEASE HOLD

Snow, snow and more snow….

CHAQA has DIED. They were a VANILLA TOWNIE.

Day 7 has begun. You may now post

Ok, I'm pretty irritated at all the people who felt the need to state their intention to kill Maniac today, since scum killing one of Maniac and gold would have been handy. Killing Maniac today would be stupid, so we will not be doing that.

@Boat, imagine for a moment that gold is scum, and then prove by contradiction with your D1 VCA that he isn't.

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:07 am

Ok, I'm pretty irritated at all the people who felt the need to state their intention to kill Maniac today, since scum killing one of Maniac and gold would have been handy. Killing Maniac today would be stupid, so we will not be doing that.

@Boat, imagine for a moment that gold is scum, and then prove by contradiction with your D1 VCA that he isn't.

I don't think I could. It isn't impossible to rule out mafia just chilling on a vanity wagon. I don't think gold is scum because why would scum!vecna not stay on the HR wagon? Switching to gold instead of forcing HR is ultimately what got him killed.

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:46 am

All right, I'm off til the end of phase. Whoever we end up on, I hope they're scum.

I don't like celaph or Vecna, of the leaders. Try to stay off them.

I did find this quote amusing at EoD 2, with like 15 mins left in phase. I would find it odd if he were scum that he didn't seem willing to stay the extra 15 mins to put in any effort to save Celaph or guarantee the kill though on me. Also interesting he chose to vote for Bob, a secondary wagon, instead of me. Celaph already made it clear that I was the easy opportunistic wagon for scum and Durga was happy to follow.

Why wouldn't another scum looking to ice the day and make sure neither Vecna, the RBer or Celaph face any heat cast their vote for me? It's not like I wouldn't have been an easy miskill that day. I fully admit my play that day was pretty shit tier and when combined with my bad call on D1 re:Flum, I doubt a miskill of me would have generated much suspicion. The answer for Vecna was obvious in that he was offline when I became an easy wagon. But for goldie? He was on 15 minutes before EoD. He can read the wagons and tell that I was an easy kill.

Vote count at the time he made that post announcing his departure, for reference: Me(5), Bob(4), Vec(4), Jamie(3), Celaph(2).

Now that coupled with the far more important case of Vecna's behavior D4? I think goldie is pretty townie.

TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:56 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:07 am

Ok, I'm pretty irritated at all the people who felt the need to state their intention to kill Maniac today, since scum killing one of Maniac and gold would have been handy. Killing Maniac today would be stupid, so we will not be doing that.

@Boat, imagine for a moment that gold is scum, and then prove by contradiction with your D1 VCA that he isn't.

I don't think I could. It isn't impossible to rule out mafia just chilling on a vanity wagon. I don't think gold is scum because why would scum!vecna not stay on the HR wagon? Switching to gold instead of forcing HR is ultimately what got him killed.

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:46 am

All right, I'm off til the end of phase. Whoever we end up on, I hope they're scum.

I don't like celaph or Vecna, of the leaders. Try to stay off them.

I did find this quote amusing at EoD 2, with like 15 mins left in phase. I would find it odd if he were scum that he didn't seem willing to stay the extra 15 mins to put in any effort to save Celaph or guarantee the kill though on me. Also interesting he chose to vote for Bob, a secondary wagon, instead of me. Celaph already made it clear that I was the easy opportunistic wagon for scum and Durga was happy to follow.

Why wouldn't another scum looking to ice the day and make sure neither Vecna, the RBer or Celaph face any heat cast their vote for me? It's not like I wouldn't have been an easy miskill that day. I fully admit my play that day was pretty shit tier and when combined with my bad call on D1 re:Flum, I doubt a miskill of me would have generated much suspicion. The answer for Vecna was obvious in that he was offline when I became an easy wagon. But for goldie? He was on 15 minutes before EoD. He can read the wagons and tell that I was an easy kill.

Vote count at the time he made that post announcing his departure, for reference: Me(5), Bob(4), Vec(4), Jamie(3), Celaph(2).

Now that coupled with the far more important case of Vecna's behavior D4? I think goldie is pretty townie.

You're fitting all of your day one analysis into this super specific picture of how you think scum would behave and then completely throwing it out for day 2 and day 3. If they're so concerned about spreading out (and happy to bus Bob to that end), why do you expect them all to pile on one person to save another? Why is it out of the question that Vecna saw the writing on the wall and voted gold to create that all-powerful distance at the end? He literally said he was voting gold because his other option was death and HR was hammering them for protecting a scumbuddy with his refusal to move.

ghug wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:53 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:34 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:25 pm

Let's all just agree it's Maniac.

Yep. Maniac 2m. Those alive on d8 can worry about the goon.

I don't see how Maniac is possibly more scummy than gold.

I really think you're town, damo, but it's kinda frustrating that when I'm scum you always catch me but when I'm town your reads are like this.

Yeah the game would make suspiciously more sense if we considered that goldfinger might be gf.

Also RIP Chaqa, I expected that to be the kill.

ghug wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:09 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:05 pm

ghug wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:53 pm

I don't see how Maniac is possibly more scummy than gold.

I really think you're town, damo, but it's kinda frustrating that when I'm scum you always catch me but when I'm town your reads are like this.

d4 5 minutes to go it's HR 5 Vec 5 Gold 4

Why would RBerVecna move from townHR to GFGold?

I cannot entertain the idea Gold is scum.

HR was aggressively pushing the idea that Vecna was scum because he wasn't moving. It seemed exceedingly likely that one of Vecna and gold would die. Moving to cut losses and create some distance is entirely within the realm of possibility.

Exactly this. It is entirely unreasonable to clear goldfinger based off one vote by a mafia PR when both were heavily scumread and Vecna had been trying his best to avoid goldie all day..

##vote goldie

Seems like there might finally be enough support for it, not that that's ever stopped me.

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:58 am

I’ve been keeping quiet about this, but there’s some chance I die I think. I find it oddly suspicious that TFB is still alive. I think he should be kept in the picture if he stays alive much longer.

Note to self: look into goldie/tfb as a team.

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:13 am

TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:56 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:07 am

Ok, I'm pretty irritated at all the people who felt the need to state their intention to kill Maniac today, since scum killing one of Maniac and gold would have been handy. Killing Maniac today would be stupid, so we will not be doing that.

@Boat, imagine for a moment that gold is scum, and then prove by contradiction with your D1 VCA that he isn't.

I don't think I could. It isn't impossible to rule out mafia just chilling on a vanity wagon. I don't think gold is scum because why would scum!vecna not stay on the HR wagon? Switching to gold instead of forcing HR is ultimately what got him killed.

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:46 am

All right, I'm off til the end of phase. Whoever we end up on, I hope they're scum.

I don't like celaph or Vecna, of the leaders. Try to stay off them.

I did find this quote amusing at EoD 2, with like 15 mins left in phase. I would find it odd if he were scum that he didn't seem willing to stay the extra 15 mins to put in any effort to save Celaph or guarantee the kill though on me. Also interesting he chose to vote for Bob, a secondary wagon, instead of me. Celaph already made it clear that I was the easy opportunistic wagon for scum and Durga was happy to follow.

Why wouldn't another scum looking to ice the day and make sure neither Vecna, the RBer or Celaph face any heat cast their vote for me? It's not like I wouldn't have been an easy miskill that day. I fully admit my play that day was pretty shit tier and when combined with my bad call on D1 re:Flum, I doubt a miskill of me would have generated much suspicion. The answer for Vecna was obvious in that he was offline when I became an easy wagon. But for goldie? He was on 15 minutes before EoD. He can read the wagons and tell that I was an easy kill.

Vote count at the time he made that post announcing his departure, for reference: Me(5), Bob(4), Vec(4), Jamie(3), Celaph(2).

Now that coupled with the far more important case of Vecna's behavior D4? I think goldie is pretty townie.

You're fitting all of your day one analysis into this super specific picture of how you think scum would behave and then completely throwing it out for day 2 and day 3. If they're so concerned about spreading out (and happy to bus Bob to that end), why do you expect them all to pile on one person to save another? Why is it out of the question that Vecna saw the writing on the wall and voted gold to create that all-powerful distance at the end? He literally said he was voting gold because his other option was death and HR was hammering them for protecting a scumbuddy with his refusal to move.

Note to self: really look into tfb/gold as scum together.

Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:04 am

Snow, snow and more snow….

CHAQA has DIED. They were a VANILLA TOWNIE.

Day 7 has begun. You may now post

Shit, and I had hoped my posts yesterday and about the RB might have helped throw some shade on his towny-ness

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:34 am

Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:04 am

Snow, snow and more snow….

CHAQA has DIED. They were a VANILLA TOWNIE.

Day 7 has begun. You may now post

Shit, and I had hoped my posts yesterday and about the RB might have helped throw some shade on his towny-ness

Question for the masses: when's the last time a gold post didn't make your skin crawl?

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:13 am

TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:56 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:07 am

Ok, I'm pretty irritated at all the people who felt the need to state their intention to kill Maniac today, since scum killing one of Maniac and gold would have been handy. Killing Maniac today would be stupid, so we will not be doing that.

@Boat, imagine for a moment that gold is scum, and then prove by contradiction with your D1 VCA that he isn't.

I don't think I could. It isn't impossible to rule out mafia just chilling on a vanity wagon. I don't think gold is scum because why would scum!vecna not stay on the HR wagon? Switching to gold instead of forcing HR is ultimately what got him killed.

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:46 am

All right, I'm off til the end of phase. Whoever we end up on, I hope they're scum.

I don't like celaph or Vecna, of the leaders. Try to stay off them.

I did find this quote amusing at EoD 2, with like 15 mins left in phase. I would find it odd if he were scum that he didn't seem willing to stay the extra 15 mins to put in any effort to save Celaph or guarantee the kill though on me. Also interesting he chose to vote for Bob, a secondary wagon, instead of me. Celaph already made it clear that I was the easy opportunistic wagon for scum and Durga was happy to follow.

Why wouldn't another scum looking to ice the day and make sure neither Vecna, the RBer or Celaph face any heat cast their vote for me? It's not like I wouldn't have been an easy miskill that day. I fully admit my play that day was pretty shit tier and when combined with my bad call on D1 re:Flum, I doubt a miskill of me would have generated much suspicion. The answer for Vecna was obvious in that he was offline when I became an easy wagon. But for goldie? He was on 15 minutes before EoD. He can read the wagons and tell that I was an easy kill.

Vote count at the time he made that post announcing his departure, for reference: Me(5), Bob(4), Vec(4), Jamie(3), Celaph(2).

Now that coupled with the far more important case of Vecna's behavior D4? I think goldie is pretty townie.

You're fitting all of your day one analysis into this super specific picture of how you think scum would behave and then completely throwing it out for day 2 and day 3. If they're so concerned about spreading out (and happy to bus Bob to that end), why do you expect them all to pile on one person to save another? Why is it out of the question that Vecna saw the writing on the wall and voted gold to create that all-powerful distance at the end? He literally said he was voting gold because his other option was death and HR was hammering them for protecting a scumbuddy with his refusal to move.

Because I don't think scum voting patterns are required to be as diffuse on later days? And 1-3-1 is still a reasonable spread when the lead wagon is scum. It's not like it's a 4-1 or something. As for vecna seeing the writing on the wall? Perhaps. It does seem like he was more defeatist than he had any reason to be. But still, to bus the godfather? That's a bit extreme. IMO HR was a wagon he could have gotten killed if he wanted.

I did find it suspect he did ask for the cop scan and yes there is a chance he is the godfather, but I think odds are good he isn't

##VOTE The

ghug wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:37 am

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:34 am

Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:04 am

Snow, snow and more snow….

CHAQA has DIED. They were a VANILLA TOWNIE.

Day 7 has begun. You may now post

Shit, and I had hoped my posts yesterday and about the RB might have helped throw some shade on his towny-ness

Question for the masses: when's the last time a gold post didn't make your skin crawl?

I can't remember the last time I didn't dislike something he said, probably D1 when he was swimming in his house.

##vote damo

RIP chaqa

##vote Damo. I also strongly g/f read goldie so happy to vote for them.

I think the clincher on me Sven reading Damo is when he votes town he says he won’t be on EOD and then goes missing. When he votes Durga he says he’ll be back EOD and actually turns up. I think scum would signal to their team that their town vote is final but that they will be around EOD when fellow scum is at risk.