M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

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Chaqa
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3381 Post by Chaqa » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:39 am

Hellenic Riot wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:10 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:43 pm
Something I was thinking about just now -

At least for the next two day phases or so, I think we should try to focus wagons on those who didn’t vote celaph. We can worry about bussers a bit later, but I have a good feeling that if we focus on those who didn’t vote him, we will find even more mafia.

Two, maybe three day phases should be safe to use for this. One can even be a TFB flip if we think it was scum vs scum
Last time I heard you use this argument, you were the last scum after bussing multiple partners and went on to win :razz:
Am I possibly the last scum at this time?
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3382 Post by Chaqa » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:40 am

BusinessLamp wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:14 am
@TFB, ghug, chaqa, demon, bozo, donny, jamie, rdr, bob

what made you switch onto celaph?
Ghug mentioned TFB probably would have fake claimed as scum and that made sense to me, and I had alwuas been stronger on celaph being scum anyways. TFB was just the least bad of the wagons at the time
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3383 Post by DemonRHK » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:42 am

BusinessLamp wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:20 am
DemonRHK wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:18 am
BusinessLamp wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:14 am
@TFB, ghug, chaqa, demon, bozo, donny, jamie, rdr, bob

what made you switch onto celaph?
I was on celaph for a time D1 (with bad reasoning tho), and I liked the wagoners more than I did the other.
which wagoners did you like/dislike that most influenced your decision
Liked ghug and Chaqa. Didn't like bob and HR
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3384 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:53 am

BusinessLamp wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:14 am
@TFB, ghug, chaqa, demon, bozo, donny, jamie, rdr, bob

what made you switch onto celaph?
I like to be on a meaningful wagon.

Vecna wasn't going to happen, sadly.
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3385 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:56 am

kgray wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:23 am
I think Durga is actually my biggest scumread. She doesn't seem too involved and I kind of think she's avoiding the game and giving her opinions, both of which I have seen her do as scum. I haven't seen her really commit to any reads (Demon is her most consistent scumread I think? And I struggle to understand why) and I definitely get the feeling she was hoping other non-celaph wagons would take off yesterday.

I scumread Vecna pretty actively, since he seemed to be making up random meta on Demon and when I called him on it he tried to flip it on me.

I could actually maybe see Chaqa as scum but probably not? I'm starting to get more interested in a damo flip. HR's D2 wasn't great but it was like a more passive version of mine so idk if I find it that bad.

Bozo is my top townread. He's fully in his element, especially after the scum flip, and I don't think he's ever done this as scum. Never kill him. And if I start to doubt him, please refer me to this post.

I begrudgingly think boatman is probably town, but mostly that's because of ghug's point that he'd have claimed PR if he were scum. Unless ghug is his scumbuddy and was maybe annoyed he didn't claim something, but as boatman pointed out that situation is *impossible*.

Lamp continues to be super towny to me. I get that he could be putting on the best act of all time, but it's little things like him mentioning forum mafia can be fun when we killed scum that are really convincing me.

I haven't reread celaph or EODs so I don't think I have any more thoughts that I haven't shared.
I will join you on Vecna or Durga, totally.
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3386 Post by Chaqa » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:57 am

Durga, HR, Blamp, and Maniac are my top 4 scum suspects
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3387 Post by DemonRHK » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:59 am

Don't have a lot of solid thoughts tonight. Understandably the eod action and the flip gives us a lot of new info, but night discussion is always a but lackluster, Right now, i am thinking something along the lines of vecna/damo/bob and maybe one deep busser maybe bozo. Got no real case for the last two, just a feeling the wagons couldn't have been that lopsided with scum. A bit of reverse gambler's fallacy?

Interestingly enough, d2 does a lot to help clear up d1 cel beinging on boat there too may mean bob is an important scum role, and i would be down to see bob sorted out today. Same with vecna and damo, also in my prefered daykill pool and would love to see one of these three parted from the mortal coil.

Got a townie vibe from as couple of people on the boat wagon, durga and blamp. Usually i read rdr as scum too much but even i can't see him as scummy after that last second vote. I don't see him bussing like that. Like bona and kgray despite them being off scum too. Trying to read hr is a nightmare to me, like reading stereo instructions. Your mileage may vary, but maniac is also on the low side of null to me too.

i hope to see y'all on the back side of the flip. if not, keep calm, respect the dead, and carry on.
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3388 Post by BesharamSabi » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:00 am

NIGHT HAS ENDED.

PLEASE HOLD
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3389 Post by Hellenic Riot » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:00 am

Aite, time for some VCA. Given how wildly the analysis changes depending on the role of TFB, this will also be further broken down into three scenarios to cover that. Analysis will begin from when celaph casts his first vote at T-71 minutes.

Scenario A: TFB is town

1:11: celaph votes TFB

Wagons are:
celaph (5): ghug, goldie, HR, kgray, Vecna
BobMcBob (4): damo, Donny Dude, Maniac, rdrivera
TheFlyingBoat (4): Bonatogether, celaph, Chaqa, Durga
Vecna (3): Bozotheclown, Jamie, TheFlyingBoat
Others: BobMcBob (Goldie), BusinessLamp (Unvote), DemonRHK (damo)

First point: celaph voting TFB rather than Vecna looks good for TFB and less good for Vecna. celaph had earlier townread/"buddied" Bob, so a Bob vote was probably harder for him to justify and thus less relevant.

Now, going forward.
1:01 - kgray switches from celaph to TFB (4 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 3 Vecna)
0:56 - RHK switches from damo to Vecna (4 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna)
0:25 - ghug switches from celaph to Jamie (3 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie)

None of these trio of votes look particularly good, though kgray's obviously looks worst.

0:24 - Donny unvotes Bob (3 celaph, 3 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie)
0:24 - Goldie switches from celaph to Bob (2 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie) - Nadir of celaph wagon

Should be noted - again - That soon after this, Goldie states that he dislikes the celaph wagon... Having only just left it. That looks atrocious.

0:22 - BusinessLamp switches from Unvote to TFB (2, 4, 6, 4, 1)
0:19 - Bob switches from goldie to Jamie (2, 4, 6, 4, 2)
0:19 - Durga switches from TFB to Jamie (2, 4, 5, 4, 3) - Peak Jamie reached

The Jamie wagon, interestingly, seems to rise more as a response to TFB taking a significant lead than to anything to do with celaph.

0:11 - Donny switches from unvote to TFB (2, 4, 6, 4, 3)
0:08 - TFB switches from Vecna to celaph (3, 4, 6, 3, 3)

TFB's change is interesting given he was the lead wagon and he moved on to celaph rather than staying on Vecna (though given the stasis of Vecna at 3, that may not be unreasonable)... But also, not moving on to Bob. Looks good.

0:08 - ghug switches from Jamie back to celaph (4, 4, 6, 3, 2) - Vote looks very good. End of Jamie as a credible wagon.

0:07 - Chaqa switches from TFB to celaph (5, 4, 5, 3, 2) - Another vote that looks very good if TFB is town

0:04 - Jamie switches from Vecna to Bob (5, 5, 5, 2, 2) - A vote that looks a lot less good. End of Vecna as a credible wagon.

0:03 - Bob switches from Jamie to TFB (5, 5, 6, 2, 1)
0:02 - Durga switches from Jamie to TFB (5, 5, 7, 2)
0:02 - HR switches from celaph to TFB (4, 5, 8, 2)

A trio of votes that all look awful if TFB is town. Peak TFB reached.

0:02 - RHK switches from Vecna to celaph (5, 5, 8, 1) - A vote that looks very good... Except that it's so close to the deadline that maybe it looks like a convenient way to have ended on a partner without thinking they would die.

0:02 - Bozo switches from Vecna to celaph (6, 5, 8) - A vote that looks very good, and if he saw RHK's first, looks exceptional

0:01 - Donny switches from TFB to celaph (7, 5, 7) - A vote that ties it very close to EoD, and only takes place ten minutes after he voted TFB. This vote, of all of those that moved at the end, definitely looks the most questionable

0:01 - Jamie switches from Bob to celaph (8, 4, 7)
0:01 - rdrivera switches from Bob to celaph (9, 3, 7)

Two votes that look very good, particularly if TFB is town.

So if TFB is town:

- ghug and Chaqa look very very good for making celaph the counterwagon after TFB took the lead
- Bob, Durga, and Myself look very poor for the late votes on TFB

- RHK's vote could be good, but could also have been a hedge vote expecting TFB to have died given the vast gap between celaph & TFB when he made it.

- Bozo, Jamie, rdrivera look good at the end. Jamie looked less good when he tied it three way when he voted Bob.

- Donny's vote, coming just ten minutes after voting TFB in the first place, could very much have been a scum player scrambling to get onto a teammate he thought was dead. Absolutely love to hear a good explanation for why he voted celaph so soon after voting TFB.

Most Townie in this scenario:
- ghug, Chaqa, Bozo, rdrivera

Most Scummy:
- Durga, Bob, Me

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scenario B: TFB is a Mafia Goon

In this scenario, there's very little reason for mafia to choose to 'sacrifice' TFB to save celaph... Therefore late switches onto celaph would be very weird for scum to make. As indeed, would my own switch from celaph to TFB.

So, looking through it all again:
Wagons are:
celaph (5): ghug, goldie, HR, kgray, Vecna
BobMcBob (4): damo, Donny Dude, Maniac, rdrivera
TheFlyingBoat (4): Bonatogether, celaph, Chaqa, Durga
Vecna (3): Bozotheclown, Jamie, TheFlyingBoat
Others: BobMcBob (Goldie), BusinessLamp (Unvote), DemonRHK (damo)

1:01 - kgray switches from celaph to TFB (4 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 3 Vecna)

This vote now makes very little sense as scum. kgray looks very townie as a result in this scenario.

0:56 - RHK switches from damo to Vecna (4 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna)
0:25 - ghug switches from celaph to Jamie (3 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie)
0:24 - Donny unvotes Bob (3 celaph, 3 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie)
0:24 - Goldie switches from celaph to Bob (2 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie) - Nadir of celaph wagon

RHK's vote looks very poor - Putting Vecna up level when there are two Mafia Goons on the block. ghug's flashwagon starter also looks poor.

Should be noted - again - That soon after this, Goldie states that he dislikes the celaph wagon... Having only just left it. That looks atrocious. I'll say this every time, because it looks atrocious in every scenario.

0:22 - BusinessLamp switches from Unvote to TFB (2, 4, 6, 4, 1)

This vote now looks pretty good, or at least a commitment to bus has been made.

0:19 - Bob switches from goldie to Jamie (2, 4, 6, 4, 2)
0:19 - Durga switches from TFB to Jamie (2, 4, 5, 4, 3) - Peak Jamie reached

The Jamie wagon, interestingly, seems to rise more as a response to TFB taking a significant lead than to anything to do with celaph. It looks utterly atrocious if TFB is scum as a result.

0:11 - Donny switches from unvote to TFB (2, 4, 6, 4, 3)
0:08 - TFB switches from Vecna to celaph (3, 4, 6, 3, 3)

Donny's vote looks good.

TFB's change is interesting given he was the lead wagon and he moved on to celaph rather than staying on Vecna (though given the stasis of Vecna at 3, that may not be unreasonable)... But also, not moving on to Bob. Looks good.

0:08 - ghug switches from Jamie back to celaph (4, 4, 6, 3, 2) - Vote looks decent, but also may have been a realisation that one of the two was dying. End of Jamie as a credible wagon.

0:07 - Chaqa switches from TFB to celaph (5, 4, 5, 3, 2) - A vote that looks distinctly meh in this scenario.

0:04 - Jamie switches from Vecna to Bob (5, 5, 5, 2, 2) - A vote that looks extremely bad. End of Vecna as a credible wagon.

0:03 - Bob switches from Jamie to TFB (5, 5, 6, 2, 1)
0:02 - Durga switches from Jamie to TFB (5, 5, 7, 2)
0:02 - HR switches from celaph to TFB (4, 5, 8, 2)

A trio of votes that now don't look too bad.

0:02 - RHK switches from Vecna to celaph (5, 5, 8, 1) - A vote that looks very good... Except that it's so close to the deadline that maybe it looks like a convenient way to have ended on a partner without thinking they would die. Same as before.

0:02 - Bozo switches from Vecna to celaph (6, 5, 8) - A vote that looks very good, and if he saw RHK's first, looks exceptional. Same as before.

0:01 - Donny switches from TFB to celaph (7, 5, 7) - A vote that ties it very close to EoD, and only takes place ten minutes after he voted TFB. This vote, of all of those that moved at the end, definitely looks the most questionable. If they're both scum, it looks even more questionable.

0:01 - Jamie switches from Bob to celaph (8, 4, 7)
0:01 - rdrivera switches from Bob to celaph (9, 3, 7)


No credit really garnered by the final two if it was Scum vs Scum.

So if TFB is a Mafia Goon, the Jamie wagon (and people on it) look very poor, and the late slides onto celaph do not garner anywhere near as much credit. Donny once again looks weird for switching from TFB to celaph so soon after voting TFB. Bozo & RHK look good for their late votes but RHK's Vecna vote earlier on looks terrible. At some point presumably scum will have decided to bus here.

Most Townie:
- Bozo, ME

Most Scummy:
- Donny, Durga, Bob

Out of time so posting before Scenario C (TFB as Mafia PR)
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3390 Post by BesharamSabi » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:01 am

PLEASE HOLD 😡
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3391 Post by BesharamSabi » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:10 am

Evelyn followed Kasia into a large room, lit by dozens of candles and a fire in the corner, what smelled like some kind of stew cooking atop it. She did not know exactly where she was, only that they had entered an empty church, took some stairs down underground and weaved in and out of a maze of tunnels before ending up in this chamber. Kasia walked over to the pot of stew, ladled a generous serving into a bowl and handed it to Evelyn.

“Sit,” she said. “I want you to meet someone.”

Evelyn sat and realized she was quite hungry, the smell of the stew filled her nostrils. She took a bite, and another, and soon she was devouring the bowl. Kasia returned as Evelyn was spooning the last drops from the bowl - another woman stood next to Kasia.

“This is Mara,” Kasia said. “She is the leader of our group.”

“Hello Evelyn,” Mara said. “I am Mara, and I am here to protect you. We are all here to protect you. We fight against the persecution of sorceresses, and resist the Empire. You are safe as long as you remain with us. Unfortunately, the Empire will now know who you are, and you won’t be safe out there.”

“Are you like her?” Evelyn asked, pointing at Kasia.
“Yes. I am similar to Kasia in that I can do magic. In that regard, you are also like her. Many of the people in our group can perform magic. You will meet the rest of them soon.”

“Will you teach me to do what Kasia did? With the blue soldiers she made?” Evelyn asked.

“Yes. They are called Echoes. And we will teach you that and more. When I was a little girl, the Empire took me and my sister away. Stole me from my family. This was before they knew I could perform magic - just the typical evil they perform. I escaped, and formed this resistance. We fight the empire, and protect those with magic, those who can fight back. We fight how we can. I will teach you what I know, but in return I ask that you join us in the fight.

“Well..I…” Kasia said, but was interrupted by two new people entering the chamber. The man in front opened his mouth to say something, then noticed Evelyn there and promptly closed it, eyes shifting to Mara.

“It’s ok,” said Mara, “Mission success?”

“Mission success,” the man replied, though he looked crestfallen.

Mara picked up on this as well. “Marcus didn’t make it?”

The man shook his head, his eyes looking down.

Mara walked over to the man and put her hand on his shoulder. “You did well.”

Evelyn finally allowed the thought she had been ignoring to sink in… Her life was about to change dramatically.

“Come,” Mara said, turning to Evelyn, “Let's introduce you to the others.”

—-------------------------------------------------

BOZOTHECLOWN has DIED. They were DOCTOR.


DAY 3 HAS BEGUN. YOU MAY NOW POST
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3392 Post by Hellenic Riot » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:11 am

Scenario C (Hopefully I'm not typing this while dead because I hate wasting effort): TFB is a Mafia PR

1:11: celaph votes TFB

Wagons are:
celaph (5): ghug, goldie, HR, kgray, Vecna
BobMcBob (4): damo, Donny Dude, Maniac, rdrivera
TheFlyingBoat (4): Bonatogether, celaph, Chaqa, Durga
Vecna (3): Bozotheclown, Jamie, TheFlyingBoat
Others: BobMcBob (Goldie), BusinessLamp (Unvote), DemonRHK (damo)

First point: celaph voting TFB in the first place here looks really fucking weird if TFB is a Mafia PR, so this is already an unlikely scenario.

Now, going forward.
1:01 - kgray switches from celaph to TFB (4 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 3 Vecna)

This vote now looks extremely good

0:56 - RHK switches from damo to Vecna (4 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna)
0:25 - ghug switches from celaph to Jamie (3 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie)
0:24 - Donny unvotes Bob (3 celaph, 3 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie)
0:24 - Goldie switches from celaph to Bob (2 celaph, 4 Bob, 5 TFB, 4 Vecna, 1 Jamie) - Nadir of celaph wagon

Should be noted - again - That soon after this, Goldie states that he dislikes the celaph wagon... Having only just left it. That looks atrocious. It still looks atrocious. In every scenario. I forgot to add Goldie to Most Scummy in Scenario A & B - But he absolutely is. And he is in this too.

0:22 - BusinessLamp switches from Unvote to TFB (2, 4, 6, 4, 1)

A vote that now looks great

0:19 - Bob switches from goldie to Jamie (2, 4, 6, 4, 2)
0:19 - Durga switches from TFB to Jamie (2, 4, 5, 4, 3) - Peak Jamie reached

The Jamie wagon, interestingly, seems to rise more as a response to TFB taking a significant lead than to anything to do with celaph. This therefore looks really *REALLY* bad if TFB is a Mafia PR.

0:11 - Donny switches from unvote to TFB (2, 4, 6, 4, 3)

A vote that now looks pretty good

0:08 - TFB switches from Vecna to celaph (3, 4, 6, 3, 3)
0:08 - ghug switches from Jamie back to celaph (4, 4, 6, 3, 2) - Vote looksokay but could easily be the lesser sacrifice. End of Jamie as a credible wagon.

0:07 - Chaqa switches from TFB to celaph (5, 4, 5, 3, 2) - A vote that now looks terrible

0:04 - Jamie switches from Vecna to Bob (5, 5, 5, 2, 2) - A vote that looks frankly appalling. End of Vecna as a credible wagon.

0:03 - Bob switches from Jamie to TFB (5, 5, 6, 2, 1)
0:02 - Durga switches from Jamie to TFB (5, 5, 7, 2)
0:02 - HR switches from celaph to TFB (4, 5, 8, 2)

A trio of votes that suddenly look like geniuses

0:02 - RHK switches from Vecna to celaph (5, 5, 8, 1) - A vote that now looks very average.

0:02 - Bozo switches from Vecna to celaph (6, 5, 8) - A vote that also looks very average

0:01 - Donny switches from TFB to celaph (7, 5, 7) - A vote that ties it very close to EoD, and only takes place ten minutes after he voted TFB. This vote, and the outside possibility of an intentional tie, still looks quite poor. And given that Donny had only just voted TFB, it could very easily be a scum unsure who to bus. Very suspicious vote.

0:01 - Jamie switches from Bob to celaph (8, 4, 7)
0:01 - rdrivera switches from Bob to celaph (9, 3, 7)

Two votes that now just look pretty meh.

So if TFB is a Mafia PR:

- I look like the best player ever, so I love this scenario already.
- kgray also looks very good, as does BusinessLamp
- Jamie wagon looks awful, but Bob & Durga salvage it by voting TFB.

Most Townie in this scenario:
- Me, kgray, BusinessLamp

Most Scummy:
- Donny Dude, Goldfinger0303, ghug, DemonRHK


Though primarily my main view is that given celaph's vote, this is just a very unlikely scenario.
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3393 Post by Chaqa » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:12 am

Ghug was roleblocked

Rip Bozo
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3394 Post by kgray » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:12 am

dammit, rip bozo :cry:
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3395 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:12 am

Aw fuck.

RIP, BOZO

I was not roleblocked.

##Vote Vecna.
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3396 Post by Hellenic Riot » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:13 am

##vote goldfinger0303


Time for you to explain what made you dislike the celaph wagon that you'd literally only just left.



@Donny

Also time for you to explain why you voted TFB and then switched to celaph ten minutes later.
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3397 Post by kgray » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:13 am

I was RB'd.

##vote durga
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3398 Post by DemonRHK » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:13 am

Fuck, bozo :(

##vote Vecna
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3399 Post by BusinessLamp » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:21 am

thank you for making that summary HR
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Donny Dude
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Re: M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#3400 Post by Donny Dude » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:25 am

Hellenic Riot wrote:
Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:13 am
##vote goldfinger0303


Time for you to explain what made you dislike the celaph wagon that you'd literally only just left.



@Donny

Also time for you to explain why you voted TFB and then switched to celaph ten minutes later.
k hr
Looking back at it there was a chaqa post about celaph not really defending himself that I thought was out of character and decided then to vote for him.
I admit it was more a sudden gut feeling then than anything else.
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