MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[TheMadMonarch]

if sabi is town then scum would want sabi alive so thats two people who would want sabi in the endgame

if sabi is scum then the other scum member would want sabi alive so the clears can die rapidly here

there isnt a scenario where sabi is an easy miskill that scum would be pushing fot today so your logic is fraudulent

my entire thought process here is: sabi is the next biggest target, if I needed someone else to die, I'd make it them.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Some vote overview of our remaining candidates.

...Damo votes Flum at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Started out voting Ghug, but moved to Cap when Ghug's wagon got big around 8 hours to EOD. I don't think that would count as "bussing then saving" since Damo would know that there would be plenty of time for ghug's wagon to calm down before he needed to get off, but I'm also skeptical that Ezik-Damo would bus Ghug and then even momentarily bus Meme...
...Bozo votes Ghug at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Voted ghug D2 until the very end. Probably not likely to be Ezik, then.
...Brain voted only town on D1. Voted Macca and Flum on D2, among other town.
...Sabi voted only town on D1. Opened on Brain, ended up voting town the rest of D2.
...Macca early on Sabi, ending on Tom on D1. Voted Ghug early on D2, and then Meme bussed Ghug, but right after Lfischl voted Ghug, Macca moved off. Bozo was also voting ghug most of D2 until the last few minutes. I think that says that Macca was possibly Ezik and that Bozo is unlikely to be. More reason to vote for Macca...

Conclusions:
Damo less likely to be either team.
Bozo less likely to be Ezik.
Macca not looking good for evacuating from Ghug wagon at critical time.

With RB, Brain probably not Kolechian.

Therefore:
Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu (less likely)
Dam Dur Flu (less likely)

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu (more likely)
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu (less likely)
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu (less likely)

Anyone want to sanity check any of this or tell me where I'm wrong?

So you see Sabi is the only player possible on both teams. Also if we flip Sabi and they are town then Bozo is our Kman.

Is this why Bozo reluctant to vote Sabi?

Why is Brain eliminated if Sabi flips town?

[TheFlyingBoat]

Anyways, I am going to sleep now since it is 1:15 am here and I am very sleepy. I will not be around for EOD unless I wake up in the middle of the night again as EOD is at 4:30am. I like my vote on Macca. Feel free to vote with me on Macca if y'all like, feel free to vote for Damo imo if you find good reason not to vote Macca. While I don't want Sabi or Macca around for any sort of KILO or MKILO situation, I don't think targeting the more likely townie is a good idea.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Some vote overview of our remaining candidates.

...Damo votes Flum at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Started out voting Ghug, but moved to Cap when Ghug's wagon got big around 8 hours to EOD. I don't think that would count as "bussing then saving" since Damo would know that there would be plenty of time for ghug's wagon to calm down before he needed to get off, but I'm also skeptical that Ezik-Damo would bus Ghug and then even momentarily bus Meme...
...Bozo votes Ghug at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Voted ghug D2 until the very end. Probably not likely to be Ezik, then.
...Brain voted only town on D1. Voted Macca and Flum on D2, among other town.
...Sabi voted only town on D1. Opened on Brain, ended up voting town the rest of D2.
...Macca early on Sabi, ending on Tom on D1. Voted Ghug early on D2, and then Meme bussed Ghug, but right after Lfischl voted Ghug, Macca moved off. Bozo was also voting ghug most of D2 until the last few minutes. I think that says that Macca was possibly Ezik and that Bozo is unlikely to be. More reason to vote for Macca...

Conclusions:
Damo less likely to be either team.
Bozo less likely to be Ezik.
Macca not looking good for evacuating from Ghug wagon at critical time.

With RB, Brain probably not Kolechian.

Therefore:
Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu (less likely)
Dam Dur Flu (less likely)

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu (more likely)
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu (less likely)
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu (less likely)

Anyone want to sanity check any of this or tell me where I'm wrong?

So you see Sabi is the only player possible on both teams. Also if we flip Sabi and they are town then Bozo is our Kman.

Is this why Bozo reluctant to vote Sabi?

Why is Brain eliminated if Sabi flips town?

I am assuming it is some interaction with the role block, but I just don't get what Sabi has to do with it.

[BesharamSabi]

if sabi is town then scum would want sabi alive so thats two people who would want sabi in the endgame

if sabi is scum then the other scum member would want sabi alive so the clears can die rapidly here

there isnt a scenario where sabi is an easy miskill that scum would be pushing fot today so your logic is fraudulent

my entire thought process here is: sabi is the next biggest target, if I needed someone else to die, I'd make it them.

But why

[TheMadMonarch]

if sabi is town then scum would want sabi alive so thats two people who would want sabi in the endgame

if sabi is scum then the other scum member would want sabi alive so the clears can die rapidly here

there isnt a scenario where sabi is an easy miskill that scum would be pushing fot today so your logic is fraudulent

my entire thought process here is: sabi is the next biggest target, if I needed someone else to die, I'd make it them.

But why

why were you the next biggest target? you were in tied 2nd place, for scum and town reasons.

[BesharamSabi]

Anyways, I am going to sleep now since it is 1:15 am here and I am very sleepy. I will not be around for EOD unless I wake up in the middle of the night again as EOD is at 4:30am. I like my vote on Macca. Feel free to vote with me on Macca if y'all like, feel free to vote for Damo imo if you find good reason not to vote Macca. While I don't want Sabi or Macca around for any sort of KILO or MKILO situation, I don't think targeting the more likely townie is a good idea.

Lfischl hasn't contributed anything either just saying

[TheMadMonarch]

Good morning all mafia players. I have an announcement.


Since I am already on death's door, I would like to let you in on a secret most of you already know.

I am the Ezic Forger.

I have been protecting my own identity every night, which is why fox scanned as he did.


I hope that by coming to you with this, that I will be able to secure myself a second place, rather than third. I am prepared to let the town decide the direction of my NK.

Remember, you can always kill me at a later date.

Have a wonderful night!

[Foxcastle]

Well, I'm actually inclined to just kill Macca. It's a nice thought that he would promise to let us direct his NK, but he could be trying to wriggle his way to a win and I think reducing the number of NKs down to just 1 is much more in Town's favor.

[BesharamSabi]

Well, I'm actually inclined to just kill Macca. It's a nice thought that he would promise to let us direct his NK, but he could be trying to wriggle his way to a win and I think reducing the number of NKs down to just 1 is much more in Town's favor.

Tgey/them is their pronouns btw

[BesharamSabi]

Well, I'm actually inclined to just kill Macca. It's a nice thought that he would promise to let us direct his NK, but he could be trying to wriggle his way to a win and I think reducing the number of NKs down to just 1 is much more in Town's favor.

Tgey/them is their pronouns btw

They ** omg

[BesharamSabi]

Good morning all mafia players. I have an announcement.


Since I am already on death's door, I would like to let you in on a secret most of you already know.

I am the Ezic Forger.

I have been protecting my own identity every night, which is why fox scanned as he did.


I hope that by coming to you with this, that I will be able to secure myself a second place, rather than third. I am prepared to let the town decide the direction of my NK.

Remember, you can always kill me at a later date.

Have a wonderful night!

Well one scum is down

If this is true, why would you admit this?

##VOTE macca

[Foxcastle]

Sigh. I am truly sorry, Macca. I will do better!

[brainbomb]

Good morning all mafia players. I have an announcement.


Since I am already on death's door, I would like to let you in on a secret most of you already know.

I am the Ezic Forger.

I have been protecting my own identity every night, which is why fox scanned as he did.


I hope that by coming to you with this, that I will be able to secure myself a second place, rather than third. I am prepared to let the town decide the direction of my NK.

Remember, you can always kill me at a later date.

Have a wonderful night!

you lied to me twice when I asked you if you were scum

very disappointed in your lies

[Foxcastle]

Gonna drop a ##VOTE MACCA and we can go from there if anyone else has particularly good ideas.

[brainbomb]

##vote macca

[BesharamSabi]

Good morning all mafia players. I have an announcement.


Since I am already on death's door, I would like to let you in on a secret most of you already know.

I am the Ezic Forger.

I have been protecting my own identity every night, which is why fox scanned as he did.


I hope that by coming to you with this, that I will be able to secure myself a second place, rather than third. I am prepared to let the town decide the direction of my NK.

Remember, you can always kill me at a later date.

Have a wonderful night!

you lied to me twice when I asked you if you were scum

very disappointed in your lies

So do you believe them? I don't see a reason to lie about this but the announcement is weird.

[brainbomb]

macca does what macca do

[Foxcastle]

Good morning all mafia players. I have an announcement.


Since I am already on death's door, I would like to let you in on a secret most of you already know.

I am the Ezic Forger.

I have been protecting my own identity every night, which is why fox scanned as he did.


I hope that by coming to you with this, that I will be able to secure myself a second place, rather than third. I am prepared to let the town decide the direction of my NK.

Remember, you can always kill me at a later date.

Have a wonderful night!

you lied to me twice when I asked you if you were scum

very disappointed in your lies

So do you believe them? I don't see a reason to lie about this but the announcement is weird.

I cannot see Town making this claim. Like, maybe in some circumstances you'd want to reaction test, but I think they're being practical that they had 2 votes and that I was clearly scumreading them. Asking for second place in order to help get rid of the last Kolechian is not such a bad offer, but I just don't think it's enough for town to take up at this point, in no small part because if K could screw it up.

0. Right now, it's E (Macca) + K + (lfischl, TFB, me) + 3 town.

1. If we consider a worst case scenario where we miskill town, and then Macca unluckily hits town, and K hits a townclear, then it's: E (Macca) + K + (2 townclear) + 1 town.

Scenario 2.a: we kill Macca, K kills a townclear and it's K + 1 clear + 1 town my KiLo.

Scenario 2b: we miskill again (although at that point, it's 50/50) and go into the night with E + K + 2 townclear, and town can't win that.

Those are bad scenarios, maybe we could get luckier, but maybe we could also just thrash it out versus the last Kolechian.

[BesharamSabi]

you lied to me twice when I asked you if you were scum

very disappointed in your lies

So do you believe them? I don't see a reason to lie about this but the announcement is weird.

I cannot see Town making this claim. Like, maybe in some circumstances you'd want to reaction test, but I think they're being practical that they had 2 votes and that I was clearly scumreading them. Asking for second place in order to help get rid of the last Kolechian is not such a bad offer, but I just don't think it's enough for town to take up at this point, in no small part because if K could screw it up.

0. Right now, it's E (Macca) + K + (lfischl, TFB, me) + 3 town.

1. If we consider a worst case scenario where we miskill town, and then Macca unluckily hits town, and K hits a townclear, then it's: E (Macca) + K + (2 townclear) + 1 town.

Scenario 2.a: we kill Macca, K kills a townclear and it's K + 1 clear + 1 town my KiLo.

Scenario 2b: we miskill again (although at that point, it's 50/50) and go into the night with E + K + 2 townclear, and town can't win that.

Those are bad scenarios, maybe we could get luckier, but maybe we could also just thrash it out versus the last Kolechian.

That clears things up in my mind. Thank you