MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[ghug]

Mixed bag of a EOD.

Nice work to the vig. Hope you stay alive.

I know that I also voted for tom, but reading through EOD, 10 votes just comes out of absolutely nowhere and necks the guy. This seems suspicious to me. For the record, Damo led that charge, being the first vote in both waves, and declaring it a good idea at the first.

@Bozo: I would like to put Damo where Tom was, on my list.

Got things to do, I'll be back in a couple hours.

snowy and ghug led the Tom DK, and a number of players moved to Tom after lfischl claimed. I am not sure yet if snowy and ghug leading the town is as good idea.

You're not sure? Does that mean you've reconsidered the ghug/lfischl team? Tell me about that thought process.

[bozotheclown]

Mixed bag of a EOD.

Nice work to the vig. Hope you stay alive.

I know that I also voted for tom, but reading through EOD, 10 votes just comes out of absolutely nowhere and necks the guy. This seems suspicious to me. For the record, Damo led that charge, being the first vote in both waves, and declaring it a good idea at the first.

@Bozo: I would like to put Damo where Tom was, on my list.

Got things to do, I'll be back in a couple hours.

snowy and ghug led the Tom DK, and a number of players moved to Tom after lfischl claimed. I am not sure yet if snowy and ghug leading the town is as good idea.

You're not sure? Does that mean you've reconsidered the ghug/lfischl team? Tell me about that thought process.

lfischl claimed vig, no one else claimed vig, so I thought "lfischl is probably town".

[Squigs44]

To answer your questions squiggs,

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Given that last night two kills happened, one on a VT, one on a Bus Driver there a couple possibilities.

A VT was role blocked: To my knowledge they do not get a PM letting them know they were so they wouldn't be able to claim it

An opposing mafia member was role blocked: Can't tell us anything since Durga is dead. We know the Enforcer did not use their power OR was not role blocked given two kills occurred. Maybe Durga was role blocked, which would be good to know, but she can't tell us because she is dead. Maybe Kolechian Goon was blocked, but that's as good as blocking a townie to my understanding.

A Town PR was role blocked: If it was like M70 where I believe the doctor was PMed they were role blocked even if their save was unnecessary, it could out the doctor. If they don't they can't give any info so it's irrelevant. Otherwise we know a cop failed in their investigation, which lends credibility to their claim if it goes unchallenged, but it also forces them to claim very early for no apparent reason. Unless I am missing something I don't see what is gained through this other than a non-Ezic clear that will likely die at the hands of the Ezic team the next day. Maybe it makes a good Doc target, but shit that just doesn't seem worth it.

What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

They know that they have a power, whether a scum member or a town PR and are therefore a good target. I don't see why this would be revealed?

The only way I could see it having any value is if VT get messages on a role block in which case there is a far wider pool of potential non-Ezic clears which could be nice.

If you disagree, Squiggs, tell me what I am missing, because I straight up don't get it.

In every game I've played, VTs are alerted if they are RBd

I can see why you would be opposed under that assumption. What games have VTs not been alerted?

[Squigs44]

TFB while I think your reasoning is okay based on your premise, I think your assumption that the last Kolechian will specifically be targeting the Ezic team is incorrect. All they care about is surviving now, and there are two ways they can die: NK and DK vote. They can increase their probability of surviving during the day guaranteed by killing townread players or townclears, while they have to off three Ezic members before that kill goes away. Yes they need the Ezic team to die, but I don't think they're just gonna kill who we want.

I don't think that's true. They also need to kill Kolechians to stave of the Kolechians being an out right majority. At the end of this night there will be 9 people. Let's assume for the sake of a reasonable worst case scenario first for the Kolechians (other than outright elimination and ignoring the doctor so that we can focus on a simples days to loss calc not predicated on doctor luck) that they miss and two townies die. We would then have 5 town, 1 Kolechian, and 3 Ezic.

The Kolechians need to either get the day vote right or an NK on Ezic or it's game over. With PRs alive a mass role claim may buy time for both town and Kolechia, but if the PRs get NKed by chance and only VTs and maybe one PR are alive for the sake of a pure probability look in this hypothetical, then the Kolechians lose if they fail to hit Ezic in the day and night. The odds of failure obviously go way up if they're not even TRYING to hit Ezic and instead are taking shots at town clears. They need Ezic dying while knowing that Ezic has the incentives to take shots at town clears to increase their likelihood of winning.

I don't know how Kolechia can play it any other way here other than shoot at Ezic, knowing that shooting town clears just accelerates the end. Kolechia wants town clears alive until they have the Ezic down to 1 if not zero in order to increase the odds of hitting Ezic with a day vote or with an NK in order to stave off the far more likely and difficult to avoid loss condition given their current state. Time is already very much not on their side if two townies die tonight.

First of all, there are 13 people still alive, not sure how we get to only 9 people tomorrow. So it would be 7/3/1. Secondly, it could be 3/3/1 and Kolechia could still win by daykilling and NKing an Ezic back to back to back. Letting a townclear or two through and being at 4/2/1 is probably a worse situation since they would have to kill both Ezic and the one or two townclears with 3 or 4 consecutive kills.

Not saying they are going to ignore Ezic, but its not their only threat and killing a townclear would be guaranteed, while aiming at Ezic could just make it harder for them to hide in the POE. We don't really know what the situation of the Kolechian is, how hidden they are, so we don't know their exact intention.

[Squigs44]

Mixed bag of a EOD.

Nice work to the vig. Hope you stay alive.

I know that I also voted for tom, but reading through EOD, 10 votes just comes out of absolutely nowhere and necks the guy. This seems suspicious to me. For the record, Damo led that charge, being the first vote in both waves, and declaring it a good idea at the first.

@Bozo: I would like to put Damo where Tom was, on my list.

Got things to do, I'll be back in a couple hours.

Is there a specific person or people who you are most surprised voted for Tom (came out of nowhere)

Do you think scum is more likely to lead the charge on a wagon or follow along to avoid blame?

[Squigs44]

Wouldn't that also out the person if they were pr too.

I just think it's a bad idea to admit you were roleblocked because it's just giving ammo to scum.

I think if you try to answer my questions I posed to you, you might realize why both of points here are wrong

Squiggles can you go reread Durga and Flum cause I don't have time?

Yeah but in like 6 hours when I wake up... which reminds me I should sleep. I'll do it before EoD though

[Squigs44]

I mean EoN

[Squigs44]

I hate Mondays, but on the brightside this is the last Monday I have to work on this year.

How is that for positivity, Meme?

[Squigs44]

I was quickly gonna look at Tom's reads to see if there was any wisdom there, but he was townreading Durga and Flum before they flipped and was voting lfischl (who we are assuming is the actual vig for now) so he hasn't been the most accurate this game.

I do think his take on rdr is probably true though

[Squigs44]

I'm also starting to doubt my read on TFB. He just seems to have a different understanding of the game entirely and so I think I may have been attributing scuminess to what can be explained by genuine misunderstanding. That and I doubt he is on a team with Durga/Flum as well as some of my other scumreads so I think I need to rebuild my scumteams before EoN as well.

[snowy801]

snowy and ghug led the Tom DK, and a number of players moved to Tom after lfischl claimed. I am not sure yet if snowy and ghug leading the town is as good idea.

You're not sure? Does that mean you've reconsidered the ghug/lfischl team? Tell me about that thought process.

lfischl claimed vig, no one else claimed vig, so I thought "lfischl is probably town".

We've never seen scum fake claim to save their lives before, right guys?

[TheFlyingBoat]

TFB while I think your reasoning is okay based on your premise, I think your assumption that the last Kolechian will specifically be targeting the Ezic team is incorrect. All they care about is surviving now, and there are two ways they can die: NK and DK vote. They can increase their probability of surviving during the day guaranteed by killing townread players or townclears, while they have to off three Ezic members before that kill goes away. Yes they need the Ezic team to die, but I don't think they're just gonna kill who we want.

I don't think that's true. They also need to kill Kolechians to stave of the Kolechians being an out right majority. At the end of this night there will be 9 people. Let's assume for the sake of a reasonable worst case scenario first for the Kolechians (other than outright elimination and ignoring the doctor so that we can focus on a simples days to loss calc not predicated on doctor luck) that they miss and two townies die. We would then have 5 town, 1 Kolechian, and 3 Ezic.

The Kolechians need to either get the day vote right or an NK on Ezic or it's game over. With PRs alive a mass role claim may buy time for both town and Kolechia, but if the PRs get NKed by chance and only VTs and maybe one PR are alive for the sake of a pure probability look in this hypothetical, then the Kolechians lose if they fail to hit Ezic in the day and night. The odds of failure obviously go way up if they're not even TRYING to hit Ezic and instead are taking shots at town clears. They need Ezic dying while knowing that Ezic has the incentives to take shots at town clears to increase their likelihood of winning.

I don't know how Kolechia can play it any other way here other than shoot at Ezic, knowing that shooting town clears just accelerates the end. Kolechia wants town clears alive until they have the Ezic down to 1 if not zero in order to increase the odds of hitting Ezic with a day vote or with an NK in order to stave off the far more likely and difficult to avoid loss condition given their current state. Time is already very much not on their side if two townies die tonight.

First of all, there are 13 people still alive, not sure how we get to only 9 people tomorrow. So it would be 7/3/1. Secondly, it could be 3/3/1 and Kolechia could still win by daykilling and NKing an Ezic back to back to back. Letting a townclear or two through and being at 4/2/1 is probably a worse situation since they would have to kill both Ezic and the one or two townclears with 3 or 4 consecutive kills.

Not saying they are going to ignore Ezic, but its not their only threat and killing a townclear would be guaranteed, while aiming at Ezic could just make it harder for them to hide in the POE. We don't really know what the situation of the Kolechian is, how hidden they are, so we don't know their exact intention.

Uh that would be because I can't math. I knew there were 13 people alive because I mentioned in a response to Sabi that if we nailed the Kolechian in the day we would be playing a 9-3 game where the enemy mafia has had time to blend into town and build up significant credibility.

I mentioned this to them because a 9-3 is a relatively balanced 12 person game starting from scratch, but my worry is that in this altered state where scum has had a chance to build up fake reads and even land some successful ones on the other scum team, we would wind up in a very bad place with some scum being able to burrow deep and win args in KILO.

I think what ended up happening was I had the 9 town number fixed in my head as the number of living town players and then it became my total living players when I replied to you. Then I back calculated the math from there knowing there would be 3 Ezic and 1 Kolechian which is where the math started to get bad.

I think this tilts the Kolechians best strategy a little bit away from needing to go Hail Mary, bum rush the Ezic team to the end towards a more balanced strategy. I still think the balance tilts towards targeting Ezic when possible, but I think you are right and I was wrong in these past two posts given how much more dire the math is when there will be 11 people alive versus 9 people alive.

[Squigs44]

I may not be great at scumhunting and I may be susceptible to buddying, but when it comes to math and mechanics I'm usually above average (although I've had my fair share of brain farts too)

[TheFlyingBoat]

To answer your questions squiggs,

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Given that last night two kills happened, one on a VT, one on a Bus Driver there a couple possibilities.

A VT was role blocked: To my knowledge they do not get a PM letting them know they were so they wouldn't be able to claim it

An opposing mafia member was role blocked: Can't tell us anything since Durga is dead. We know the Enforcer did not use their power OR was not role blocked given two kills occurred. Maybe Durga was role blocked, which would be good to know, but she can't tell us because she is dead. Maybe Kolechian Goon was blocked, but that's as good as blocking a townie to my understanding.

A Town PR was role blocked: If it was like M70 where I believe the doctor was PMed they were role blocked even if their save was unnecessary, it could out the doctor. If they don't they can't give any info so it's irrelevant. Otherwise we know a cop failed in their investigation, which lends credibility to their claim if it goes unchallenged, but it also forces them to claim very early for no apparent reason. Unless I am missing something I don't see what is gained through this other than a non-Ezic clear that will likely die at the hands of the Ezic team the next day. Maybe it makes a good Doc target, but shit that just doesn't seem worth it.

What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

They know that they have a power, whether a scum member or a town PR and are therefore a good target. I don't see why this would be revealed?

The only way I could see it having any value is if VT get messages on a role block in which case there is a far wider pool of potential non-Ezic clears which could be nice.

If you disagree, Squiggs, tell me what I am missing, because I straight up don't get it.

In every game I've played, VTs are alerted if they are RBd

I can see why you would be opposed under that assumption. What games have VTs not been alerted?

I used to play a lot of mafia on MafiaScum and SmashBoards back when I was a kid like a decade ago, and at least iirc on both of those sites you only got a role block message if your actual move failed as a result of the role block. No clue if they changed their rules since then and my memory is admittedly hazy, but I think they went so far as to not give a doctor notice they were role blocked if their target wasn't targeted for a kill.

So in those games you'd only really ever get reliable notices of a role block if you were a cop/tracker/other investigative role. I have no idea if there were any games where they weren't notified on here, but I don't think it really came up much in the games I was in in any meaningful way so I don't think I ever changed my prior assumptions as to how they worked until now.

[captainmeme]

Proud of ya squiggs

[captainmeme]

@bozo will get you up to 100% during the day

[captainmeme]

I should say positivity day is over now, you can all go back to being the kind of people who play forum mafia

[damo666]

If we assume

i) Durga didn't bus
ii) the entire durga team were not on Bona

then there has to be at least one Durga team member in:

Sabi Bozo Flum rdr TFB Tom

I townread most of these though.

Sabi and Bozo should not be in the above.

So, one of Flum rdr TFB Tom

##vote The FlyingBoat

So this was correct. The third member is probably a high poster who was on Bona day 1. This is brain, ghug and Squigs.

[damo666]

So following TFBs theory ghug brain and Squigs should be off table until we kill some Ezics

[captainmeme]

last kolechian should just claim tbh

we can vote on their nightkill

they'd have a better shot at winning than they do currently bc if they get down to 3 or 4 players left (which they have to anyway) with an Ezic person still in the game then we will probably give it to them as a thank you

and Doc would be down to protect them if they're acting as a town vigilante