M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

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DeathLlama8
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3401 Post by DeathLlama8 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am

Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh

Also re: snowy - I think I generally agree that meta reads are bad and that scumreading anyone who acts differently to you in the same situation is also bad, and it was probably pretty frustrating to die D2 like that for pretty weak reasoning. I don't think the game would've gone meaningfully differently if he had been free D2 (he probably obvtowns D2 and maybe get ghug killed if town follow you? and then we kill snowy/celaph instead of celaph/jamiet) though
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ghug
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3402 Post by ghug » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:16 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:44 am
BesharamSabi wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:32 am
we basically just needed to convince sabi to follow one of us today

I hate this.

How do I fix this lol
I didn't mean to single you out in that sense, more that everyone else had voted for ghug already and I knew you trusted me. I thought you generally played much better than previous games and obvtowned almost immediately which is the best first step for new(ish) town to take. Like was said above, next it's about focusing the effort and trying to more directly look for things that are scum-indicative (which you probably would've done had this game come at a better time).

In terms of your read on me, I feel like it was based on me trying to direct your play D1 for the better which you thought I would only do as town. Mafia me is trying to seem genuine though and would do the same thing though, so it's important not to base your read off one thing like that unless it's completely ironclad
Lol I totally tried to advise Sabi D1 by being snowyly condescending because I thought that would be seen as ghuggly.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3403 Post by ghug » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am
Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh

Also re: snowy - I think I generally agree that meta reads are bad and that scumreading anyone who acts differently to you in the same situation is also bad, and it was probably pretty frustrating to die D2 like that for pretty weak reasoning. I don't think the game would've gone meaningfully differently if he had been free D2 (he probably obvtowns D2 and maybe get ghug killed if town follow you? and then we kill snowy/celaph instead of celaph/jamiet) though
I don't think meta reads are bad at all. To get in somebody's head, you have to know how they operate. Operating completely without meta is as flawed as only looking at whether people disagree with your ideas

I've been in the position snowy was in before, and I do empathize with it. Making yourself a little scummier preserves you and helps you read people better. Sometimes you thread the needle wrong though, and I think Snowy's death was largely a result of his flying too close to the sun.

There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone. The flip side is that sometimes if your convincing skill is weak, you just need to bloviate a little. I think snowy, for example, would be served by contriving some points to support his generally decent (but again not impeccable) reads.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3404 Post by DeathLlama8 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:28 am

ghug wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone
Agreed in general, but if snowy was convinced his reads were that much better than the rest of town's then he should've just constructed something. I don't see how he expected town to follow him onto us when he didn't put much effort into explaining why he suspected us (and died thinking I was town fwiw)
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3405 Post by ghug » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:05 am

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:28 am
ghug wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:27 am
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone
Agreed in general, but if snowy was convinced his reads were that much better than the rest of town's then he should've just constructed something. I don't see how he expected town to follow him onto us when he didn't put much effort into explaining why he suspected us (and died thinking I was town fwiw)
Yeah, I feel like anyone preaching self-doubt should probably not be talking about how their reads were perfect when they die townreading 2/3 scum.
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damo666
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3406 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm

Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3407 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:19 pm

@kouncil where are we with the lack of QT situation?
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3408 Post by BesharamSabi » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm

damo666 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm
Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.
Could you explain how you figure out scum pairs and what causes you to figure out they are not scum pairs.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3409 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:31 pm

Oh the game is over?

GG well done scum.

Ghug was on the block last time I checked. Why did you all jump to Darg?

Thanks for running this, PE.

Last ever game with a QuickTopic... how about that.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3410 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:34 pm

Without having read the last EoD in detail I have to offer my congrats to Ghug for avoiding death at the last and therefore locking in the victory for his team.

DeathLlama, you gave off very towny vibes. Of the three Mafia you were the only one I didn't suspect at all. A good performance.

Damo you're always hard to read, solidly played again.

For the record, because people always shit on my reads, I did explicitly scumread Ghug and Damo before I was killed - but DL had me totally fooled.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3411 Post by dargorygel » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:53 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:31 pm
Oh the game is over?

GG well done scum.

Ghug was on the block last time I checked. Why did you all jump to Darg?

Thanks for running this, PE.

Last ever game with a QuickTopic... how about that.
Dargo did an odd jump to 'end,' not recalling at the moment that it was a dangerous KILO. (Hoping that all would jump to end and finish it, making MY schedule better.) When dargo REALIZED it, he unjumped. It looked very, very, very, very, very scummy.

So all voted for darg. (other than me...)
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3412 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:52 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:34 pm
Without having read the last EoD in detail I have to offer my congrats to Ghug for avoiding death at the last and therefore locking in the victory for his team.

DeathLlama, you gave off very towny vibes. Of the three Mafia you were the only one I didn't suspect at all. A good performance.

Damo you're always hard to read, solidly played again.

For the record, because people always shit on my reads, I did explicitly scumread Ghug and Damo before I was killed - but DL had me totally fooled.
Thanks Jamie
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Durga
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3413 Post by Durga » Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:53 pm

DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am
Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh
Yeah I'm gathering that 😂
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3414 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:07 pm

BesharamSabi wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:18 pm
Eden - you are being to hard on yourself.

Snowy - you are being too hard on everyone lol.

Sabi - I like eliminating scumpairs as a tool to determine an estimate of each players' likelihood of being scum. It is of course not an exact science and not everyone's cup of tea.
Could you explain how you figure out scum pairs and what causes you to figure out they are not scum pairs.
Looking at votes. I know people bus but looking at the votecount at the time people vote you can spot what looks like a very unlikely scum on scum move, also taking into account where the principal wagons are voting themselves and considering likely self save switches. Of course when one is scum oneself it is somewhat easier!

For instance consider day 2. DL votes Bozo to put him 4-3 in the lead and never moves off. To me that's then an unlikely scumpair. Similarly celaph's Bozo vote and only moving off last minute when it was all over looks an unlikely scumpair. Arguably you could same the same for Bozo and Bona (look at both their voting). So if Bozo has 3 people he unlikely to be in a scum team with it's starting to look unlikely he is scum at all.

Hope that helps.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3415 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:08 pm

Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:53 pm
DeathLlama8 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:47 am
Durga wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:02 am
I'm glad you all had fun
idt they did tbh
Yeah I'm gathering that 😂
I did.
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3416 Post by dargorygel » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:48 pm

That sounds scummy
##vote damo
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Re: M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

#3417 Post by bozotheclown » Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:25 am

This is from M1020 D3, when damo voted for his teammate DeathLlama, despite DeathLlama having drawn little to no suspicion at that point:
damo666 wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:04 pm
Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.
At the end of D3 in that game, damo voted for ghug, his other teammate, when the DK came down to me and ghug, to tie the vote at 4 with ghug yet to move his vote to me. It was a fairly safe bus with ghug able to break the tie, but there was some risk because one vote change could have swung the vote to ghug.

In summary, damo likes to distance vote his teammates as scum, but does not like to hard bus them and get them DKed.

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