M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[dargorygel]

Clearly everyone is taking the less precautionary stance of assuming three scum team while I'm assuming the worst with four scum team. I dunno why this stance is getting me negative backlash? I rather assume the worst in these type of situations but whatever.

Anyway going to be in and out for the rest of the real life day because I'm traveling to Florida for Thanksgiving so apologies ahead of time.

fwiw, I was not thinking about your comments/arguments in particular. That is why I asked bozo if he has concerns about anyone else. Your comments seemed to me more explorative than declarative.

Enjoy Thankseating day... I'll be travelling similarly, but not in Florida.

In fact an assumption of '3' bothers me more than an assumption of '4.' It could be exuding a false sense of false security falsely.

To all who are assuming '3...' why?

[Jamiet99uk]

I am trying to make no assumption either way. I do think 4 mafia in this setup would be very unbalanced, however.

[ghug]

Scum: Kill me tonight. I am pretty clear in most people's eyes so you're not going to get me mislynched tomorrow.

This is an interesting perspective of your own position in the game.

[ghug]

@sabi
You asked me for an example of 'analyzing' players' scumhunting. I present jamie. Unlike what many folk claim (usually pushing his buttonz) Jamie is good at webMafia. HIs usual scumhunting technique is to find where people lie. He defines lying as any statement that either contradicts a previous (or subsequent) statement.

He sees a lie... and burrows into it. It looks like tunneling, sometimes.

I think this is a good and useful methodology, and I am usually glad to see Jamie evaluating statements, because then I can be lazy. He does this in any alignment, but as scum he is forced to let his teammate's lies go unnoted, or at least unpushed.

Another player's scumhunt pattern is bozo. He is mechanical, mechanical, mechanical. He might seem to be floundering in THIS game because there is not a lot of mechanics. Notice, that he is pushing against YOU because of basically a mechanical analysis.

I find this a good and useful methodology, and I am usually glad to see bozo fine-toothing mechanical issues, because then I can be lazy. When scum, he tends to choose mechanical things that do not matter. I think his analysis in THIS game about how many scum there might be is very worthwhile.

Ghug is my final example. He likes to act snarky. He is motivated by a sense of justice, it seems to me. (Note his reaction to worcej.) When he sees something he dislikes, he pushes and then escalates and escalates and escalates. Ghug knows how to push folk's buttonz and gauges their reaction.

I find this a fairly useful methodology. But it tends to hurt the town, often. Escalating with a bunch of overcompetitive, bored with our lives, prideful folk rarely looks nice at the end. I am usually glad to see ghug attempting some probing escalation because then I can pretend to be nice.

I'm more than a little offended that you think Jamie's a better scumhunter than I am.

[Bonatogether]

day 2 player reads updated

Here is day ones post

viewtopic.php?p=274435#p274435

Bonatogether - (prev null, still null)
I felt like he was more active day 2 but I could be wrong. Still isn't giving me solid town vibes or even scum vibes. He hasn't done his usual scum hunt either. I am still baffled by him.

Bozotheclown - (prev scumlean, still scumlean)
I don't see any issues voting him off for day 3 if he isn't night killed. Yes he was more active and engaged but his vibes are still off. He's sti sporadic and hasn't explained his thought process. What I read from foods post still ringing in my war.

Celaph - (prev null, now scumlean)
I was hyped up about kgray telling me how great and fun celaph is at mafia and I have yet to witness any of that. He was barely around for day 2. When he as here he was barely posting or scum hunting. Don't mind voting for him day 3.

Damo666 - (prev scumlean, now null-scumlean)
Maybe I am biased because of his focus on me, still feel he's scummy but he could also just be null if yiu take away my bias. He seems to finally move on from me and started looking at other options.

Dargo - (prev null, still null)
Giving me nothing. Hasn't contribute much, and if anything less than worcej. Can't read them for anything.

DeathLlama8 - (prev townlean, still townlean)
Yea nothing in my read on him has changed. Still giving me townie vibes.

Ghug - (prev null, now null-townlean)
Would be townlean but snowy rather obsessed tunneling on ghug is inspiring me to reread his post sometime in the next 24 hours or so. Have to honor dead peoples wishes am I right.

Jamiet99uk - (prev townlean, still townlean)
Nothing has changed. Still think he's townie even if my reads in him tends to be more wrong than right. Maybe I will be right this time.

Squigs - (prev null, still null)
I haven't had time to reread them or anything since my last update. Should probably do that before I form an opinion. Trying to not be biased since they are now focusing on me.

1) what is my usual scum hunt, in your view?

2) You said you don't see any issues with voting bozo off - who do you prefer to vote d3?

3) What were you expecting wrt celaph?

4) What are your thoughts on what ghug has done? What specific ghug posts contributed to that?

5) what are your initial thoughts on sqoogs, including bias and without rereads?

[Bonatogether]

major league SvS vibes

i think it's relatively clear that bozo the clown is scum

I would think you might reevaluate after being proved wrong.

i had different reasons for both posts to reflect the new information that had been gained

[Bonatogether]

why is thread dead? eod was informative

I look forward to your EOD analysis.

i'll try to get something out

[Bonatogether]

ow

why is thread dead? eod was informative

What information do you think you gained?

for example, that two people jumped on me at the last second is really informative. need to drill into that nugget.

[Bonatogether]

I was assuming there were only 3 mafia, but looking into mafia theory, the general recommendation for a game with no PRs is that the number of mafia should be equal to (number of players)^0.5, which in this case is 3.6, so 4 mafia is possible.

where are you getting this equation? and why do you think eden and chaqa are doing math?

[Bonatogether]

So we can't afford anymore miskills.

We, including myself in this, suck as town.

I'm sorry snowy but you were a pretty bad town and selfish strategy in day one cost the town the game. Never do that strategy aagain. Like what were you thinking there???

we haven't lost yet

I think BesharamSabi may be telling you that you have lost and just don't know it yet.

if that was lylo, then the game would have finished. We haven't lost

[Bonatogether]

Anyway I am going to go do my day two reads after I posts the post that my dear friend Squigs neglected to cherry pick.

sabi wallposting? strange

... Bruh this whole game I was wallposting. Please look at my word count for this game. If that makes me scum then hammer me. Day 3 I don't care anymore lol. That wasn't even my top 5 longest wallpost this game either.

bruh this one was different

[ghug]

I was assuming there were only 3 mafia, but looking into mafia theory, the general recommendation for a game with no PRs is that the number of mafia should be equal to (number of players)^0.5, which in this case is 3.6, so 4 mafia is possible.

where are you getting this equation? and why do you think eden and chaqa are doing math?

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

[Bonatogether]

Bona
I have stuck with my intitial gut read of bona, and haven't moved from it. Nothing he has written has calmed my stomach.

And also... I note what might be considered Bona's Strategic Defense Initiative. He has had a LOT of votes. But he is arguing back against such votes with focus.

I recall a game with Vecna, who when voted against, argued against every single voter.

Not so bona.

A small for instance... but he has not addressed or commented on my long habit of voting for him. Probably, or at least MAYBE, because he does not respect my analytical power, or power of persuasion... so he does not 'bother' to react to me.

Or I am even more narcissistic.

i've accepted i'm always going to get votes off of tone/gut reads and there's really not a whole lot i can do about that without bending over backwards

[Bonatogether]

darg looking town, love to see it

[dargorygel]

@sabi
You asked me for an example of 'analyzing' players' scumhunting. I present jamie. Unlike what many folk claim (usually pushing his buttonz) Jamie is good at webMafia. HIs usual scumhunting technique is to find where people lie. He defines lying as any statement that either contradicts a previous (or subsequent) statement.

He sees a lie... and burrows into it. It looks like tunneling, sometimes.

I think this is a good and useful methodology, and I am usually glad to see Jamie evaluating statements, because then I can be lazy. He does this in any alignment, but as scum he is forced to let his teammate's lies go unnoted, or at least unpushed.

Another player's scumhunt pattern is bozo. He is mechanical, mechanical, mechanical. He might seem to be floundering in THIS game because there is not a lot of mechanics. Notice, that he is pushing against YOU because of basically a mechanical analysis.

I find this a good and useful methodology, and I am usually glad to see bozo fine-toothing mechanical issues, because then I can be lazy. When scum, he tends to choose mechanical things that do not matter. I think his analysis in THIS game about how many scum there might be is very worthwhile.

Ghug is my final example. He likes to act snarky. He is motivated by a sense of justice, it seems to me. (Note his reaction to worcej.) When he sees something he dislikes, he pushes and then escalates and escalates and escalates. Ghug knows how to push folk's buttonz and gauges their reaction.

I find this a fairly useful methodology. But it tends to hurt the town, often. Escalating with a bunch of overcompetitive, bored with our lives, prideful folk rarely looks nice at the end. I am usually glad to see ghug attempting some probing escalation because then I can pretend to be nice.

I'm more than a little offended that you think Jamie's a better scumhunter than I am.

Ah, ghug. I am sorry I hurt your feeling. If you deduced precedence of ability by the order of my examples, you are simply wrong. If you deduced precedence by the fact that I mentioned the usual negative fallout from what I think of as your methods, then know that Jamie's method produces mountains our if molehills.

If you are pushing back and escalating our discussion kudos.

[Bonatogether]

I was assuming there were only 3 mafia, but looking into mafia theory, the general recommendation for a game with no PRs is that the number of mafia should be equal to (number of players)^0.5, which in this case is 3.6, so 4 mafia is possible.

where are you getting this equation? and why do you think eden and chaqa are doing math?

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

hmm

I don't think it's very useful to do math right now, but moreso to just kill scum and see how play changes and guess based on that

[dargorygel]

Bona
I have stuck with my intitial gut read of bona, and haven't moved from it. Nothing he has written has calmed my stomach.

And also... I note what might be considered Bona's Strategic Defense Initiative. He has had a LOT of votes. But he is arguing back against such votes with focus.

I recall a game with Vecna, who when voted against, argued against every single voter.

Not so bona.

A small for instance... but he has not addressed or commented on my long habit of voting for him. Probably, or at least MAYBE, because he does not respect my analytical power, or power of persuasion... so he does not 'bother' to react to me.

Or I am even more narcissistic.

i've accepted i'm always going to get votes off of tone/gut reads and there's really not a whole lot i can do about that without bending over backwards

I can relate... I'll keep watching you. That is not far off from my alnalysis of what you are doing. "Not Bothering" can be because I have not given you a case against yourself to ask me questions about.

Do you think you were being protected in those end of day votes? Do you think it might look like you were being protected? Was something else going on?

[dargorygel]

correction to the ghug message: mountains out of molehills... not mountains our if molehills.

smh

[dargorygel]

where are you getting this equation? and why do you think eden and chaqa are doing math?

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

hmm

I don't think it's very useful to do math right now, but moreso to just kill scum and see how play changes and guess based on that

Telling bozo we don't need math is like waving a red flag in front of a bull... or a mask in front of a trumpsupporter.

[DeathLlama8]

aight eod2 notes
---
With around one hour left, I switch onto bozo and sabi switches onto snowy. At this point, the vote is 4-4 with two votes on ghug and one on bona. At this point, snowy says he won't vote bozo to save himself and flips to bona.

I know I am town and I believe snowy is town, so for Squigs and ghug to be correct, the scum team would have to be Bonatogether, damo, and celaph, which is not impossible.

Can you explain what the thought process was behind this post?

vote bozo

i'm more sure about this nerd

Given where we were in the day/vote, this looks good if bozo flips scum

I'm driving but I should be home by EoD. Reading but can't post much. Bozo is really sticking to his guns while Snowy continues to come up with posts explaining why he can't give a solid read instead of building a convincing case. And before you say you don't need a case, look what happened with your vibe induced DL read. It evaporated when you did try to find a case

On the other hand, the reasoning here is a little shaky if EOD was TvS, especially since Squigs originally tried to get a Bozo wagon started - why is Bozo sticking to his guns inherently good?
---
Here, Ghug flips between snowy/bozo a few times to tie the vote, which is probably NAI but also annoying (he straight up says he doesn't have a preference between the two which is pretty blatant, so I think Ghug looks worse if this is TvS instead of TvT). Jamiet also gets some meme voting in, then later says it was to "test ghug's reactions" despite 31 seconds passing between his votes?

Bona and (to a lesser extent) Sabi both express distaste for the EOD, mainly due to the lack of actual movement. Celaph notes that the EOD feels like TvT or SvS. With ~2-3 minutes left, Snowy/Bozo switch onto Bona, making it 4-4-3. At thirty seconds, the tie is broken, first by Bona moving to Snowy, then Ghug/Celaph.
---
Few things of note here:
- It's interesting that the two main wagons were tied at 4 for so long, with no indication that a tie would break soon, but there wasn't really an attempt to get another wagon going. I would have to reread, but anyone scumreading Bona who stayed put at 4-4-3 could be worth rereading.
- The lack of movement at EOD feels more like TvT or maybe scum bussing Bozo. It's just weird for town!Bozo to strongly townread his counterwagon and then not try to get anything else going for the final twenty minutes.
- Looking at people's rationales for voting, damo's feels especially weak and his staticness at EOD could've just been out of a desire to protect bozo
- Squigs building the bozo wagon and then jumping back to snowy with that rationale is also weird but plausibly town-motivated - I don't individually scumread him enough to push anything unless bozo flips