M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

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BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1821 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:27 pm

damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:23 pm
I disagree, tracking anyone who does not visit the nk is a townclear.
That's true, we'd have to be unlucky for the sleepwalker or mason to visit the nk while the tracker was tracking them.

Oh...I forgot to go look for ghug's message of his N1 follow! Did you see it?

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1822 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:29 pm

Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:25 pm
damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:23 pm
I disagree, tracking anyone who does not visit the nk is a townclear.

I doubt they had any indication ghug was tracker though. They just got lucky (or not from ypov).
What are you saying. Only one scum has to do the kill right?
He's saying my "negative value" isn't as bad as I originally thought. Since if ghug had tracked the sleepwalk to you, ghug would know the sleepwalker was definitely town (either sleeping or mason/child). It's only bad if the sleepwalker or mason/child visited the nk.

Durga
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1823 Post by Durga » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:30 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:29 pm
Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:25 pm
damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:23 pm
I disagree, tracking anyone who does not visit the nk is a townclear.

I doubt they had any indication ghug was tracker though. They just got lucky (or not from ypov).
What are you saying. Only one scum has to do the kill right?
He's saying my "negative value" isn't as bad as I originally thought. Since if ghug had tracked the sleepwalk to you, ghug would know the sleepwalker was definitely town (either sleeping or mason/child). It's only bad if the sleepwalker or mason/child visited the nk.
Oh I thought that was self evident
1

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1824 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:34 pm

Re-reading ghug's opening posts in D2 has aged well now.
ghug wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:08 pm
Alas, poor snowy.

What'd damo so do, Kak?
He then continues pushing Kaka on the claim being fake.

I don't see any place where ghug made a clear sign of who he followed, but only did a quick skim.

Durga
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1825 Post by Durga » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:36 pm

You know bunny you're townier this game than you were the entire time you were a clear last game
2

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1826 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:37 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:34 pm
Re-reading ghug's opening posts in D2 has aged well now.
ghug wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:08 pm
Alas, poor snowy.

What'd damo so do, Kak?
He then continues pushing Kaka on the claim being fake.

I don't see any place where ghug made a clear sign of who he followed, but only did a quick skim.
Maybe TFB? He for no apparent reason strongly strongly townreads TFB, even making Sabi promise to never vote for "[ghug] or TFB."

This would only make sense if TFB is the other mason or the sleepwalker; ghug wouldn't do this if TFB went nowhere (as I'll eat damo's hat if anyone but kaka did the kill on N1). Or I'm overthinking things.

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1827 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:38 pm

Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:36 pm
You know bunny you're townier this game than you were the entire time you were a clear last game
I LOVED not having to help people townread me last game. Was my favorite part of the game. I worked really really hard on that one post, and then sat back and tried to let other people obv town.

Durga
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1828 Post by Durga » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:39 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:38 pm
Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:36 pm
You know bunny you're townier this game than you were the entire time you were a clear last game
I LOVED not having to help people townread me last game. Was my favorite part of the game. I worked really really hard on that one post, and then sat back and tried to let other people obv town.
That one post where you only looked at me and bona interacting with each other in a 21 person game? 😂😂😂

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1829 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:40 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:38 pm
Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:36 pm
You know bunny you're townier this game than you were the entire time you were a clear last game
I LOVED not having to help people townread me last game. Was my favorite part of the game. I worked really really hard on that one post, and then sat back and tried to let other people obv town.
I also expected to die every night, so didn't really care about the game and solving.

Durga
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1830 Post by Durga » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:40 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:37 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:34 pm
Re-reading ghug's opening posts in D2 has aged well now.
ghug wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:08 pm
Alas, poor snowy.

What'd damo so do, Kak?
He then continues pushing Kaka on the claim being fake.

I don't see any place where ghug made a clear sign of who he followed, but only did a quick skim.
Maybe TFB? He for no apparent reason strongly strongly townreads TFB, even making Sabi promise to never vote for "[ghug] or TFB."

This would only make sense if TFB is the other mason or the sleepwalker; ghug wouldn't do this if TFB went nowhere (as I'll eat damo's hat if anyone but kaka did the kill on N1). Or I'm overthinking things.
Ag+hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhgghhhhggh I hate ghug
1

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1831 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:41 pm

Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:39 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:38 pm
Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:36 pm
You know bunny you're townier this game than you were the entire time you were a clear last game
I LOVED not having to help people townread me last game. Was my favorite part of the game. I worked really really hard on that one post, and then sat back and tried to let other people obv town.
That one post where you only looked at me and bona interacting with each other in a 21 person game? 😂😂😂
No, my counter claim post. I spent literally a couple hours deciding how and when to do it. I figured my one job that game for town was to be ABSOLUTELY clear who was the correct claim. Then I could die. So I sort of gave up surviving until I could solve anything.

damo666
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1832 Post by damo666 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:42 pm

Durga wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:25 pm
damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:23 pm
I disagree, tracking anyone who does not visit the nk is a townclear.

I doubt they had any indication ghug was tracker though. They just got lucky (or not from ypov).
What are you saying. Only one scum has to do the kill right?
Bunny was saying the tracker has -ve uitility. I'm countering by saying if tracker tracks player A who visits player B and there is a NK that is not B tracker knows player A is town.

damo666
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1833 Post by damo666 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:48 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:37 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:34 pm
Re-reading ghug's opening posts in D2 has aged well now.
ghug wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:08 pm
Alas, poor snowy.

What'd damo so do, Kak?
He then continues pushing Kaka on the claim being fake.

I don't see any place where ghug made a clear sign of who he followed, but only did a quick skim.
Maybe TFB? He for no apparent reason strongly strongly townreads TFB, even making Sabi promise to never vote for "[ghug] or TFB."

This would only make sense if TFB is the other mason or the sleepwalker; ghug wouldn't do this if TFB went nowhere (as I'll eat damo's hat if anyone but kaka did the kill on N1). Or I'm overthinking things.
I think you may be right, ghug tracked TFB to non-snowy. Or Sabi maybe. Why did he have both in his town core? He can only have been certain about 1.
1

Doom427
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1834 Post by Doom427 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:54 pm

Well, choosing to not kill clears, and instead go for others, is a bad losing strategy. The fact they went for it implies to me that whoever's playing has to be someone who was on Mafia last game, and really liked the strategy then.

So we have to entertain the possibility than Snowy worked with PE to fake his own death. If PE rolled the Scum Team was Kak/Snowy/PE, it would work shockingly well. They could no Kill night 1, and have an almost guaranteed win.

Just to be safe,

##VOTE SNOWY

(More seriously, considering last game, I'd say scum team is probably players who weren't around that time? After game 70, I don't see any scum player having the courage to not do the boring and obvious play, cause it seemed like a pretty clear lesson that if you're scum, you gotta kill clears. Add in that this is a flip game, where killing clears is even more important, and...)

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1835 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:54 pm

damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:48 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:37 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:34 pm
Re-reading ghug's opening posts in D2 has aged well now.



He then continues pushing Kaka on the claim being fake.

I don't see any place where ghug made a clear sign of who he followed, but only did a quick skim.
Maybe TFB? He for no apparent reason strongly strongly townreads TFB, even making Sabi promise to never vote for "[ghug] or TFB."

This would only make sense if TFB is the other mason or the sleepwalker; ghug wouldn't do this if TFB went nowhere (as I'll eat damo's hat if anyone but kaka did the kill on N1). Or I'm overthinking things.
I think you may be right, ghug tracked TFB to non-snowy. Or Sabi maybe. Why did he have both in his town core? He can only have been certain about 1.
He mentioned TFB a lot more (and somewhat out of nowhere to Durga's frustration). He also told Sabi to never vote TFB, not the other way around. That said, you know if TFB is a mason.

I *think* there might be a restricted choice issue here? Where if TFB isn't a mason, you should be less likely to believe I've found a crumb? Not sure.

Doom427
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1836 Post by Doom427 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:55 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:54 pm
damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:48 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:37 pm


Maybe TFB? He for no apparent reason strongly strongly townreads TFB, even making Sabi promise to never vote for "[ghug] or TFB."

This would only make sense if TFB is the other mason or the sleepwalker; ghug wouldn't do this if TFB went nowhere (as I'll eat damo's hat if anyone but kaka did the kill on N1). Or I'm overthinking things.
I think you may be right, ghug tracked TFB to non-snowy. Or Sabi maybe. Why did he have both in his town core? He can only have been certain about 1.
He mentioned TFB a lot more (and somewhat out of nowhere to Durga's frustration). He also told Sabi to never vote TFB, not the other way around. That said, you know if TFB is a mason.

I *think* there might be a restricted choice issue here? Where if TFB isn't a mason, you should be less likely to believe I've found a crumb? Not sure.
Sleep walker is still alive, tho. And if TFB visited anyone, they could be sleepwalking to them

Durga
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1837 Post by Durga » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:55 pm

You know ghug is a perfectly valid kill and not at all weird like when they killed ifischl or something
1

Durga
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1838 Post by Durga » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:56 pm

Can someone go and reread the convo that ghug had with tfb on the hexenjager that then led ghug to town read tfb.

BunnyGo
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1839 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:58 pm

Doom427 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:55 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:54 pm
damo666 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:48 pm


I think you may be right, ghug tracked TFB to non-snowy. Or Sabi maybe. Why did he have both in his town core? He can only have been certain about 1.
He mentioned TFB a lot more (and somewhat out of nowhere to Durga's frustration). He also told Sabi to never vote TFB, not the other way around. That said, you know if TFB is a mason.

I *think* there might be a restricted choice issue here? Where if TFB isn't a mason, you should be less likely to believe I've found a crumb? Not sure.
Sleep walker is still alive, tho. And if TFB visited anyone, they could be sleepwalking to them
Yes, but I *think* there might be a statistics thing called 'restricted choice' from damo's POV (it's secretly related to the Monte Hall problem, but I have a pet peeve about people thinking everything relates to that). Where when *I* present a possible crumb, it's less likely to be correct (from damo's POV) if it isn't about the mason/child. But I'm tired and doing other stats at work, so I'm not thinking hard about it.

Doom427
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Re: M1019 – Once Upon A Time… [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

#1840 Post by Doom427 » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:03 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:58 pm
Doom427 wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:55 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:54 pm


He mentioned TFB a lot more (and somewhat out of nowhere to Durga's frustration). He also told Sabi to never vote TFB, not the other way around. That said, you know if TFB is a mason.

I *think* there might be a restricted choice issue here? Where if TFB isn't a mason, you should be less likely to believe I've found a crumb? Not sure.
Sleep walker is still alive, tho. And if TFB visited anyone, they could be sleepwalking to them
Yes, but I *think* there might be a statistics thing called 'restricted choice' from damo's POV (it's secretly related to the Monte Hall problem, but I have a pet peeve about people thinking everything relates to that). Where when *I* present a possible crumb, it's less likely to be correct (from damo's POV) if it isn't about the mason/child. But I'm tired and doing other stats at work, so I'm not thinking hard about it.
Ah, I see now.

Well, I'm gonna assume for now if Ghug did see a visit, it was sleepwalker and not Lost Child. The assumption costs nothing, and we'll know for sure who lost child is. We have no idea who sleepwalker is
1

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