M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[snowy801]

Ask it again

You told Chaqa your second kill choice was rivera, but you said that you believed that rivera doesn’t fit the psychological profile of the mafia. Do you think we only have one mafia left?

I do rather suspect that, as I've come to believe that Jasnah was scum

[snowy801]

Also I don't know why you think I'd put some vague psychological assessment ahead of reads

[President Eden]

You seemed like you believed it, and it made sense to me, hence the question. Do you or do not you believe it?

[TheFlyingBoat]

Hmmm, so while I liked my votes on Snowy earlier some of the posts I caught throughout the day from periodic glances at my phone were far closer to the Snowy I expected given Durga's glowing praise for him. Given that I see two possibilities. Either he is reinvigorated due to newfound hope that scum team might win (will need to look into what that might be; does he think we're leaning to an MK on a claimed PR due to mafia not killing him yet or is it what he claimed, namely that he resigned himself to being a vote target and decided to give up?)

Regardless I am fine with punting on snowy for a day to give myself the reading chance I need. Rdr is another interesting wagon that was discussed before and he's starting to get a little more scummy as Town starts fishing for the last 2 mafia (presuming we nailed Bozo and Tom and that jasnah was town and 1 remaining if she isn't)

Therefore in the meantime while I sleep, before digging deeper, I'll cast my ballot ##VOTE rdrivera


NOTE: I am very very sleepy right now, please excuse any grammatical, typographical, and other weird sorts of mistakes I made.

[BunnyGo]

Hmmm, so while I liked my votes on Snowy earlier some of the posts I caught throughout the day from periodic glances at my phone were far closer to the Snowy I expected given Durga's glowing praise for him. Given that I see two possibilities. Either he is reinvigorated due to newfound hope that scum team might win (will need to look into what that might be; does he think we're leaning to an MK on a claimed PR due to mafia not killing him yet or is it what he claimed, namely that he resigned himself to being a vote target and decided to give up?)

Regardless I am fine with punting on snowy for a day to give myself the reading chance I need. Rdr is another interesting wagon that was discussed before and he's starting to get a little more scummy as Town starts fishing for the last 2 mafia (presuming we nailed Bozo and Tom and that jasnah was town and 1 remaining if she isn't)

Therefore in the meantime while I sleep, before digging deeper, I'll cast my ballot ##VOTE rdrivera


NOTE: I am very very sleepy right now, please excuse any grammatical, typographical, and other weird sorts of mistakes I made.

Is THIS a scumslip?

[BunnyGo]

(that's a joke...)

[rdrivera2005]

I had a secret hope that I would wake up check the game and you would have hammered me. Lame.

[kgray]

Ask it again

You told Chaqa your second kill choice was rivera, but you said that you believed that rivera doesn’t fit the psychological profile of the mafia. Do you think we only have one mafia left?

I do rather suspect that, as I've come to believe that Jasnah was scum

Why? Because you townread too many people?

[Doom427]

Doom says-

I dunno, what is there to say? We already are the longest game ever, aren't we?

We're playing Chicken with scum team, and I think we can make another kill without me wanting to blink. I'll revote for someone else around death time, if vote is better on someone else.

[BunnyGo]

You told Chaqa your second kill choice was rivera, but you said that you believed that rivera doesn’t fit the psychological profile of the mafia. Do you think we only have one mafia left?

I do rather suspect that, as I've come to believe that Jasnah was scum

Why? Because you townread too many people?

Yeah…I dunno what scum!jasnah would have been thinking. I don’t know what town!jasnah was thinking either. I half suspect she regretted undoing her permaban and wanted to make a splash and get out fast.

[BunnyGo]

Doom says-

I dunno, what is there to say? We already are the longest game ever, aren't we?

We're playing Chicken with scum team, and I think we can make another kill without me wanting to blink. I'll revote for someone else around death time, if vote is better on someone else.

Care to remind me your general thoughts?

[Doom427]

Doom says-

I dunno, what is there to say? We already are the longest game ever, aren't we?

We're playing Chicken with scum team, and I think we can make another kill without me wanting to blink. I'll revote for someone else around death time, if vote is better on someone else.

Care to remind me your general thoughts?

Ghug and Sabi both put the least amount of voting pressure on Tom, who's our confirmed scum. So, they gotta go first. Chaqa is cop, full stop. You're Miller, really likely, Bona and WorceJ are town, pretty likely. Oracle should scan Bozo, cause who else is there to scan? I think that's the best choice.

[snowy801]

You seemed like you believed it, and it made sense to me, hence the question. Do you or do not you believe it?

These aren't binary beliefs Eden. One should hope you'd know that, but since it's you who knows

But in essence, I suppose

[snowy801]

You told Chaqa your second kill choice was rivera, but you said that you believed that rivera doesn’t fit the psychological profile of the mafia. Do you think we only have one mafia left?

I do rather suspect that, as I've come to believe that Jasnah was scum

Why? Because you townread too many people?

Pretty much

[Vecna]

No fuck you

You keep pretending like your almost flipping day 1 was some inherent flaw in town play when you were playing like literal shit and being called out for it

And then you proceeded to play like garbage for the proceeding actual 2 weeks without pause, spending what bare minimum effort you deigned to expend on this game calling other people shit without a modicum of self awareness

Like honestly I have never once seen a worse townclear in my life and I completely sympathize with everyone who says to vote you out day 1

People were offering up dozens of reasons why I was scum and had to be scum and all this dumb stuff.

We had someone fakeclaiming a PR in a no reveal game, voting jasnah out was the most logical play and everyone acting like it wasn’t is deluding themselves.

And all those reasons I “had to be scum” are not true since, you know, town.

Honestly the literal only reason ANYBODY believes you're cop is because there hasn't been a counterclaim. You have done nothing to distinguish yourself like worcej showing genuine emotions about his play, or TFB just categorically organizing both his crumbs and his reveal in a logical and indisputable manner

If you didn't somehow receive the PR lottery you're just a shitty D1 miskill, and everyone would rightly call you out for being trash town. Literally the only reason you even get a voice in this table is because RHK got real unlucky with his rolls

Like imagine the kind of shit you have to be to get so mad at someone REASONABLY scum reading you that you threaten to end a friendship I've seen filled all day for weeks playing weird board games and shut just because your ego can't handle the fact that you simply do not know how to play this game

Fucking get over yourself

Ok. maybe I should stop being suspicious over Snowy.

The only way I can see him do this as scum is if Chaqa is his teammate, because doing this as scum to town is just overly over the top harsh and savage.

All of everything else he has done, and his opinion of me is completely meh, but I guess he's just still a little butthurt by getting punked so hard last time and needing Bozo to save his honor.

[Vecna]

zzz

(cont.)

Go ahead and cue up the “no one: literally no one:” memes for this post, if you’re convinced the clears are good feel free to skip.

I believe worcej’s and Bona’s claims the most of all. bozo’s version of the N2 events just don’t make sense. Mafia isn’t going to hold their shot and overextend by exposing a second team member to cover for the first one’s counterclaim war. Not when there’s an Oracle and a JOAT who can blow the entire plan sky-high. Perhaps this is an argument for pointing the Oracle at bozo just for insurance, but it’s such a silly plan that I don’t see the need to respect it. If they get us here then okay fine lol.

Next most believable to me is Chaqa, actually, because he has the earliest uncontested claim, meaning that the “real Cop” was overwhelmingly likely to see his claim and counterclaim but simply didn’t. It’s only even possible to me that jasnah or damo were the Cop, and damo only because Chaqa made a scene of retracting instantly and then didn’t bring it back up until damo died. Just from a numbers standpoint that’s unlikely.

TheFlyingBoat’s claim is believable along similar lines; in addition to the previous potential claimants, lfischl could also have been JOAT, but otherwise everyone has had a chance to counterclaim Boat and not done so. Again, just from a numbers standpoint, that’s unlikely.

Least believable is Bunny… but that designation means little as I think he’s well over 80% to be town. If you want insurance we can point the Oracle at jasnah.

I think jasnah is the best reveal for the following reasons:
• If jasnah turns up Cop, we catch Chaqa.
• If jasnah turns up Miller, we catch BunnyGo.
• If jasnah turns up JOAT, we catch TheFlyingBoat, and we also get to start thinking about our other clears.
• If jasnah turns up VT, then it’s highly likely all our clears are good. There are some very fringe scenarios where jasnah is VT and some/all of our clears are bad, but essentially extend the logic above about mafia overextending and numerical unlikelihood and dial it up to 11. It’s just not what happened.
I know I’ve trod a lot of well-worn ground here, but because the game is literally auto from my perspective if the clears are right, I figured it was worth doing due diligence to ensure that they are right. I am solidly convinced they all are.

Since I am not the Oracle, I suppose my next job is to convince the clears to remove me or someone else from the POE.

Its funny that you've been attacking me over holding this opinion all game, yet nothing of those basic facts that made jasnah a good reveal have changed, and now youre suddenly jumping on that boat.

Also, none of the facts that why Chaqa is the most believable PR (bar W/B) have changed much, yet these things you mention now were the things you have disregarded in your assesment most of the game.

So, help me with this; why is this post not just pretty words that dont match with your general play this game whatsoever?

[Vecna]

That’s their loss then…

But we should delay the choice and put it to them.

In bridge we’d call this a squeeze. Whatever they choose will end up harming them because we get to choose 2nd. If they leave our clears, we can afford an Oracle “miskill” to clear it up for us. If they don’t. We don’t need to kill the Oracle and can just have them as a clear.

does town have the collective willpower to not start voting them out?

I’m not budging. And I think chaqa, Rdr, Vecna, snowy, worcej, you, TFB, doom, Eden, Ghug and even Sabi are willing to vote Sabi.

If she's not going to be reasonable and interact with my pleas in her direction, this statement is correct.

[Vecna]

If we can get the oracle to flip someone (especially someone alive now), then we have a lot more information. Flipping jasnah is only insurance against if one of the clears is bullshit, which isn't impossible? But given how things are I think we really just have to gamble on the most likely scenario being the one that's true (that the clears are all legit).

True. There are better uses of the Oracle than insurance against unlikely scenarios. It’d be best if we could point it at someone still alive at this point, and luckily we’ll be able to do so provided we kill someone—literally anyone—today.

I think we should kill a VT hard claimant. I believe so far that’s me, rivera, and Sabi. Obviously I don’t want to go, but reasoning from an objective outside perspective, any of these people wouldn’t have hardclaimed VT while actually being the Oracle (I think). So we’ll be giving the Oracle a valid target.

We should leave the Oracle unclaimed so that mafia might make a mistake and shoot the Oracle instead of a clear.

I didnt run the numbers, but im pretty sure the mafia are no longer going to be killing in the pools of unclears going forward.

The universal townreads within that pool have ceased to be. The rest must be misskill bait for them that they have to conserve.

It was probably Jasnah anyways.

[Vecna]

What's the right decision here?

Well, you seem to agree with me that Chaqa is the Cop, and you don’t have an issue with my reasoning. So it sounds like you think not doubting Chaqa’s claim is the right decision, and that it’s good to have the clarity of mind to recognize that and move on.

But then you’re also suspicious of me for reaching the same conclusion and acting accordingly, because in your mind I’m meant to descend into a deeper case of paranoia and not have the clarity of mind to move on. You’re essentially saying that if I were town, I wouldn’t be capable of figuring it out and moving on, which shoehorns me into this role of unhelpful paranoia.

I haven't moved on, I'm still super fucking suspicious, but the logical side of me is telling me it doesn't need to be acted on yet. You showed less restraint than me on that front when you wanted to kill him days 2 and 3, but then you flipped to not even bothering to be suspicious. It's weird.

Man, stop making it so hard for me to think I need to kill you.

I think this was probably your best posting sequence in the entire game, Ghug.

[rdrivera2005]

If we can get the oracle to flip someone (especially someone alive now), then we have a lot more information. Flipping jasnah is only insurance against if one of the clears is bullshit, which isn't impossible? But given how things are I think we really just have to gamble on the most likely scenario being the one that's true (that the clears are all legit).

True. There are better uses of the Oracle than insurance against unlikely scenarios. It’d be best if we could point it at someone still alive at this point, and luckily we’ll be able to do so provided we kill someone—literally anyone—today.

I think we should kill a VT hard claimant. I believe so far that’s me, rivera, and Sabi. Obviously I don’t want to go, but reasoning from an objective outside perspective, any of these people wouldn’t have hardclaimed VT while actually being the Oracle (I think). So we’ll be giving the Oracle a valid target.

We should leave the Oracle unclaimed so that mafia might make a mistake and shoot the Oracle instead of a clear.

I didnt run the numbers, but im pretty sure the mafia are no longer going to be killing in the pools of unclears going forward.

The universal townreads within that pool have ceased to be. The rest must be misskill bait for them that they have to conserve.

It was probably Jasnah anyways.

I tend to think Jasnah was town.

Of course there is exceptions, but usually weird or unexplainable behavior is more town then scum. As scum you usually have more of a sense of responsibility with the team (you know the team) then as town where you don't know your teammates and tryng to be the hero is tempting.