M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

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kgray
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11541 Post by kgray » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am

President Eden wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:51 am
• kgray’s spirited defense of Sabi is a bit surprising to me, but I’m inclined to chalk it up to frustration with Bunny, and I’m not really clear what the mafia motivation is to hard defend someone else in the POE pool (unless they’re both it??)
I'm not even defending Sabi that hard, I just don't think Bunny's argument makes sense and I'm kinda frustrated because I want to work with him but apparently it's not gonna happen.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11542 Post by Chaqa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:33 am

I think it’s probably a win if we flip snowy, rivera, and ghug

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11543 Post by ghug » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:35 am

President Eden wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:30 am
The fact that the Oracle hard counters hypothetical mafia worcej’s + Bona’s strategy is enough for me to discard it.

Chaqa and/or Boat could have gotten lucky and nightkilled the roles they ended up claiming.

But mafia in worcej’s and Bona’s spot just takes the 1-for-1, kills bozo, kills our PRs and then keeps rolling. Forget analyzing the costs of the play—though they are relevant; they gave us an extra kill for it after all—and look at the benefit. We literally just point an Oracle at bozo and the whole play is broken. No mafia looks at that and goes “nah bro they won’t point the Oracle there, fuck it.” They think “alright, we traded one guy for the Doctor, not ideal but acceptable.”
The Oracle only hard counters if they're on bozo, which is why they should be on bozo. I think we're probably fine if they're town.

I do think worcej is one of the players who would do dumb shit like that, and I'm unimpressed with both of their play since the clearing, but it's also just not what's happening.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11544 Post by ghug » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:35 am

kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:30 am
President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:04 pm
Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.
Wait at this point? You'd believe any cop CC??
Yeah me too
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11545 Post by ghug » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:36 am

Chaqa wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am
Ghug, give me exactly three names. Not including any of the clears
It's the first three, but that's a dumb exercise.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11546 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:38 am

kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am
President Eden wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:51 am
• kgray’s spirited defense of Sabi is a bit surprising to me, but I’m inclined to chalk it up to frustration with Bunny, and I’m not really clear what the mafia motivation is to hard defend someone else in the POE pool (unless they’re both it??)
I'm not even defending Sabi that hard, I just don't think Bunny's argument makes sense and I'm kinda frustrated because I want to work with him but apparently it's not gonna happen.
All you have to do is not die...that's the game here.

And @ghug: you won't need to look at killing the PR claims, you've forgotten something in that case.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11547 Post by kgray » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:39 am

snowy801 wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:02 am
I just want you all to know
That you are the worst and I hate all of you
That is all
Terrible haiku, 2/10
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11548 Post by Chaqa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:39 am

ghug wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:36 am
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am
Ghug, give me exactly three names. Not including any of the clears
It's the first three, but that's a dumb exercise.
Not really. If I crowdsource it we should come up with a pretty averagely good result
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11549 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:40 am

Chaqa wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:39 am
ghug wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:36 am
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am
Ghug, give me exactly three names. Not including any of the clears
It's the first three, but that's a dumb exercise.
Not really. If I crowdsource it we should come up with a pretty averagely good result
:sick: :sick: :sick:
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11550 Post by ghug » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:41 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:38 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am
President Eden wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:51 am
• kgray’s spirited defense of Sabi is a bit surprising to me, but I’m inclined to chalk it up to frustration with Bunny, and I’m not really clear what the mafia motivation is to hard defend someone else in the POE pool (unless they’re both it??)
I'm not even defending Sabi that hard, I just don't think Bunny's argument makes sense and I'm kinda frustrated because I want to work with him but apparently it's not gonna happen.
All you have to do is not die...that's the game here.

And @ghug: you won't need to look at killing the PR claims, you've forgotten something in that case.
Again with the patronizing. There's no oracle choice that clears all of you.

If the scum strategy doesn't involve miskilling one of you, they have to kill every non-oracle, non-clear town. If you want to assume that that is their goal, then it makes complete sense that they'd try to kill Sabi.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11551 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:41 am

@TFB You gotta vote!!!
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11552 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:42 am

ghug wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:41 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:38 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am


I'm not even defending Sabi that hard, I just don't think Bunny's argument makes sense and I'm kinda frustrated because I want to work with him but apparently it's not gonna happen.
All you have to do is not die...that's the game here.

And @ghug: you won't need to look at killing the PR claims, you've forgotten something in that case.
Again with the patronizing. There's no oracle choice that clears all of you.

If the scum strategy doesn't involve miskilling one of you, they have to kill every non-oracle, non-clear town. If you want to assume that that is their goal, then it makes complete sense that they'd try to kill Sabi.
You're miscounting. And I think it might be a town slip. Stop, think. And consider 3 days from now. Don't write it in the thread. But if you still don't see it, then you're wrong.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11553 Post by kgray » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:43 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:09 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:07 am
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:35 pm


I think they "might" be scum for reasons I have described before and won't repeat. And also that it's better to kill them now when we have the chance then later or to have they as the deciding vote on milo. I have said this before in other games and no one listened to me. I exploited this on my last game as scum to win, so I know it happens

I am not fighting your scumread on me, because I also think I shouldn't be around on milo, so you bringing it just to discredit my points about Sabi looks scummy to me.
Okay Rivera, but the only reason you've given for Sabi maybe being scum is because of their "defensive "I am just clueless you can kill me" stance" so don't pretend like you've given so many reasons that you can't repeat them.

And my stance on Sabi doesn't have much to do with my scumread of you, except that I think scum certainly looks for easy people to push and I think Sabi is one of those people. The fact that most of your argument seems to be "oh well they might make a bad decision in the end" doesn't help, especially when plenty of "good" or experienced players have also made the wrong call in the end.
@kgray: do you think scum win by us miskilling anymore? Do you think rdr as scum wins by us miskilling sabi? Is this a valid strategy for him? Is this how scum!rdr plays?
I don't understand your first question because scum always win by us miskilling, right?

I don't know what scum are doing. I think they're desperate and honestly, if Eden's math is to be believed, they're in a rough spot. I think they take things one day at a time and hope to slip by but honestly it seems like we'll be okay.

Or, scum are in a great spot, and I won't find out until Chaqa/worcej/Bona all win. And in that case, oh well.

I don't really know how scum!Rivera plays, I don't think I've ever seen it? But I don't like what he's doing this game.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11554 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:43 am

Hi Doom! What do you think of all this?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11555 Post by ghug » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:45 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:42 am
ghug wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:41 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:38 am


All you have to do is not die...that's the game here.

And @ghug: you won't need to look at killing the PR claims, you've forgotten something in that case.
Again with the patronizing. There's no oracle choice that clears all of you.

If the scum strategy doesn't involve miskilling one of you, they have to kill every non-oracle, non-clear town. If you want to assume that that is their goal, then it makes complete sense that they'd try to kill Sabi.
You're miscounting. And I think it might be a town slip. Stop, think. And consider 3 days from now. Don't write it in the thread. But if you still don't see it, then you're wrong.
Let's talk about this tomorrow.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11556 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:48 am

kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:43 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:09 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:07 am


Okay Rivera, but the only reason you've given for Sabi maybe being scum is because of their "defensive "I am just clueless you can kill me" stance" so don't pretend like you've given so many reasons that you can't repeat them.

And my stance on Sabi doesn't have much to do with my scumread of you, except that I think scum certainly looks for easy people to push and I think Sabi is one of those people. The fact that most of your argument seems to be "oh well they might make a bad decision in the end" doesn't help, especially when plenty of "good" or experienced players have also made the wrong call in the end.
@kgray: do you think scum win by us miskilling anymore? Do you think rdr as scum wins by us miskilling sabi? Is this a valid strategy for him? Is this how scum!rdr plays?
I don't understand your first question because scum always win by us miskilling, right?

I don't know what scum are doing. I think they're desperate and honestly, if Eden's math is to be believed, they're in a rough spot. I think they take things one day at a time and hope to slip by but honestly it seems like we'll be okay.

Or, scum are in a great spot, and I won't find out until Chaqa/worcej/Bona all win. And in that case, oh well.

I don't really know how scum!Rivera plays, I don't think I've ever seen it? But I don't like what he's doing this game.
Right, if scum!chaq/worc/bona somehow are snowing all of us they win a prize. And congratulations to them that a massive gambit paid off (that they are also reinforcing beautifully, and that a town PR has allowed to occur). I'll pay off to them all day here. I think most of us will.

But if the PR claims are legit. Why would scum put themselves in this deep a hole for nothing? It didn't need to be this rough. It's only going to get rougher no matter what happens now. And I don't see Vecna ever doing this. I don't see snowy doing it, or rdr, or anyone else I've played with before who is still alive.

So...why would a scum player volunteer for it to be this hard?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11557 Post by Chaqa » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:50 am

It’s gotta be someone who would showboat.

Snowy/Eden maybe
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11558 Post by ghug » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:50 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:48 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:43 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:09 am


@kgray: do you think scum win by us miskilling anymore? Do you think rdr as scum wins by us miskilling sabi? Is this a valid strategy for him? Is this how scum!rdr plays?
I don't understand your first question because scum always win by us miskilling, right?

I don't know what scum are doing. I think they're desperate and honestly, if Eden's math is to be believed, they're in a rough spot. I think they take things one day at a time and hope to slip by but honestly it seems like we'll be okay.

Or, scum are in a great spot, and I won't find out until Chaqa/worcej/Bona all win. And in that case, oh well.

I don't really know how scum!Rivera plays, I don't think I've ever seen it? But I don't like what he's doing this game.
Right, if scum!chaq/worc/bona somehow are snowing all of us they win a prize. And congratulations to them that a massive gambit paid off (that they are also reinforcing beautifully, and that a town PR has allowed to occur). I'll pay off to them all day here. I think most of us will.

But if the PR claims are legit. Why would scum put themselves in this deep a hole for nothing? It didn't need to be this rough. It's only going to get rougher no matter what happens now. And I don't see Vecna ever doing this. I don't see snowy doing it, or rdr, or anyone else I've played with before who is still alive.

So...why would a scum player volunteer for it to be this hard?
Tom was alive for some of the making it this hard, though.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11559 Post by kgray » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:51 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:38 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:32 am
President Eden wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:51 am
• kgray’s spirited defense of Sabi is a bit surprising to me, but I’m inclined to chalk it up to frustration with Bunny, and I’m not really clear what the mafia motivation is to hard defend someone else in the POE pool (unless they’re both it??)
I'm not even defending Sabi that hard, I just don't think Bunny's argument makes sense and I'm kinda frustrated because I want to work with him but apparently it's not gonna happen.
All you have to do is not die...that's the game here.

And @ghug: you won't need to look at killing the PR claims, you've forgotten something in that case.
Wait what? All I have to do is not die?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11560 Post by kgray » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:53 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:48 am
kgray wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:43 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:09 am


@kgray: do you think scum win by us miskilling anymore? Do you think rdr as scum wins by us miskilling sabi? Is this a valid strategy for him? Is this how scum!rdr plays?
I don't understand your first question because scum always win by us miskilling, right?

I don't know what scum are doing. I think they're desperate and honestly, if Eden's math is to be believed, they're in a rough spot. I think they take things one day at a time and hope to slip by but honestly it seems like we'll be okay.

Or, scum are in a great spot, and I won't find out until Chaqa/worcej/Bona all win. And in that case, oh well.

I don't really know how scum!Rivera plays, I don't think I've ever seen it? But I don't like what he's doing this game.
Right, if scum!chaq/worc/bona somehow are snowing all of us they win a prize. And congratulations to them that a massive gambit paid off (that they are also reinforcing beautifully, and that a town PR has allowed to occur). I'll pay off to them all day here. I think most of us will.

But if the PR claims are legit. Why would scum put themselves in this deep a hole for nothing? It didn't need to be this rough. It's only going to get rougher no matter what happens now. And I don't see Vecna ever doing this. I don't see snowy doing it, or rdr, or anyone else I've played with before who is still alive.

So...why would a scum player volunteer for it to be this hard?
I just think you're overthinking it. They're trying to get in our heads. Don't let them.
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