M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

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ghug
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11381 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:25 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:18 pm
ghug wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:06 pm
It happened very suddenly and awkwardly. I empathized with you for most of the game because your emotional baggage with Chaqa felt genuine and I had the same healthy skepticism, but I think the townie reaction to the mounting evidence that Chaqa is actually the cop, especially combined with the weird night actions, is shock, disbelief, and paranoia. I expected to see that amplified in you because of the emotional baggage, but instead you just kinda stopped questioning it.
The night actions don’t really matter that much in hindsight. What mattered was that Chaqa claimed a guilty on Tom and no living player counterclaimed Cop. Unless the Cop also had a guilty on Tom, they should have claimed at that point to prevent a likely misfire. Since they didn’t, I presume that either the real Cop is still out there, or they’re among the dead, or they’re Chaqa. At that point the only people who could be Cop besides Chaqa are:

jasnah—covered earlier
damo—ditto
bozo—claimed Doc
lfischl—meh
Jamie—claimed VT
Flum—claimed VT

I guess I didn’t cover lfischl in the recap posts, but it’s been my belief for a while that lfischl would have counterclaimed Chaqa. He had at least one post clearly indicating that he knew Chaqa claimed, and in fact explicitly asked why the real Cop hadn’t cc’d if Chaqa was faking. I don’t think he fakes that as the actual Cop, I think that was real belief that Chaqa was the Cop due to no cc.

I did cover jasnah and damo, and I trust Jamie and Flum not to have let Chaqa go uncontested. I also trust bozo not to have claimed Doc and gone through the rigamarole he did as Cop lol… and since then we killed Tom (claimed VT) and Durga (did not cc), both of whom I also trust not to have let Chaqa’s claim go uncontested.

At that point you either have to decide jasnah or damo is the Cop or you have to drop any suspicion of Chaqa, period. And I’ve gone over those scenarios many times… and I just don’t see it.

So that’s why it’s sudden, I suppose. All the other evidence pales in comparison to that specific inflection point, because while it’s conceivable to me that a real Cop might wait to rack up scans for a while, it seems like stopping a fake claimant from pushing a kill through on a guilty scan you know they didn’t get is a high enough priority to draw out a counterclaim, and one didn’t come.

As for awkward… is it? Maybe in the sense that I’m still not particularly happy about him being Cop, since if he is town, he’s made some appeals to me that I find rather underhanded and unwarranted between teammates. In the interest of minimizing unnecessary drama I’ve minimized my comments on it. Maybe there’s some disconnect there that leads you to that conclusion?
I'm not questioning the logic, I'm questioning the vibes you're giving surrounding the logic.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11382 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:36 pm

Dunno what to tell you about that then. This feels a bit like you’re shoehorning me into not being able to make the right decision
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11383 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:39 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:36 pm
Dunno what to tell you about that then. This feels a bit like you’re shoehorning me into not being able to make the right decision
What's the right decision here?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11384 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:40 pm

I just see most of the other experienced nonclears thinking like I am on the Chaqa subject, so the fact that you're not is suspicious.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11385 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:42 pm

ghug wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:39 pm
President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:36 pm
Dunno what to tell you about that then. This feels a bit like you’re shoehorning me into not being able to make the right decision
What's the right decision here?
Well, you seem to agree with me that Chaqa is the Cop, and you don’t have an issue with my reasoning. So it sounds like you think not doubting Chaqa’s claim is the right decision, and that it’s good to have the clarity of mind to recognize that and move on.

But then you’re also suspicious of me for reaching the same conclusion and acting accordingly, because in your mind I’m meant to descend into a deeper case of paranoia and not have the clarity of mind to move on. You’re essentially saying that if I were town, I wouldn’t be capable of figuring it out and moving on, which shoehorns me into this role of unhelpful paranoia.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11386 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:44 pm

ghug wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:40 pm
I just see most of the other experienced nonclears thinking like I am on the Chaqa subject, so the fact that you're not is suspicious.
And what thinking is that? Because now it sounds like you doubt Chaqa’s claim, when you were just saying that you followed my logic for not doubting it.
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ghug
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11387 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:45 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:42 pm
ghug wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:39 pm
President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:36 pm
Dunno what to tell you about that then. This feels a bit like you’re shoehorning me into not being able to make the right decision
What's the right decision here?
Well, you seem to agree with me that Chaqa is the Cop, and you don’t have an issue with my reasoning. So it sounds like you think not doubting Chaqa’s claim is the right decision, and that it’s good to have the clarity of mind to recognize that and move on.

But then you’re also suspicious of me for reaching the same conclusion and acting accordingly, because in your mind I’m meant to descend into a deeper case of paranoia and not have the clarity of mind to move on. You’re essentially saying that if I were town, I wouldn’t be capable of figuring it out and moving on, which shoehorns me into this role of unhelpful paranoia.
I haven't moved on, I'm still super fucking suspicious, but the logical side of me is telling me it doesn't need to be acted on yet. You showed less restraint than me on that front when you wanted to kill him days 2 and 3, but then you flipped to not even bothering to be suspicious. It's weird.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11388 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:48 pm

That’s potentially a productive conversation in itself then, because I think the most important decision we have to make as the non-clears is whether we trust the clears.

How do you explain what’s happened so far under the premise that…
1. The Cop is still alive (don’t bother speculating who, of course), and
2. The Cop is dead (who would it be)

?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11389 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:54 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:48 pm
That’s potentially a productive conversation in itself then, because I think the most important decision we have to make as the non-clears is whether we trust the clears.

How do you explain what’s happened so far under the premise that…
1. The Cop is still alive (don’t bother speculating who, of course), and
2. The Cop is dead (who would it be)

?
Perhaps the living cop thought like I did, that Chaqa was claiming a guilty on a teammate and calling his bluff. Or they actually had a guilty on Tom. Perhaps a dead cop thought they were safe and died. I don't think any individual is particularly likely, but Flum is at least possible, and there are small outside shots that lfischl or Durga was being patient too. Jamie could have gotten distracted by a corset and missed his chance to claim.

I agree with the conclusion that the most likely scenario right now is that Chaqa is really the cop, but I'm not convinced, and there are things pointing the other way, like all the night actions.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11390 Post by Chaqa » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:00 pm

Unfortunately the solutions don't get any better even with knowledge about my role. Like, I know I'm the Cop, but I can see pretty much any other of the PRs being potentially fake except probably TFB.

Why mafia is shooting non-clears, I'm not sure.

Could Bozo have been actual Doc? Maybe. But it seems pretty unlikely.

The whole game state is a clusterfuck
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11391 Post by Chaqa » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:03 pm

I keep wondering why mafia let me get a scan.

The only reason I can come up with is that they believed I would scan the Godfather.

It has to be that. It really does.

I think probably then that they looked at my reads, and the Godfather was probably one of the ones I was sussing the most at the time (notably I was turning pretty hard toward town reading Tom at this time) and took a chance.

I'll have to go back and see what my general reads were on Day 4 and Night 4. I think it probably just brings me back to Snowy/Rivera/Kgray/Ghug.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11392 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:04 pm

Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11393 Post by Chaqa » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:14 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:04 pm
Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.
I was partially excited when ghug CC'd because
1) it meant I would probably no longer have to play this game
2) It meant I went 2-for-1 on mafia members if you guys 50/50'd, which is about as good as I could hope for after the Day 1 outing

I think mafia is unlikely to CC now simply because they would be trading 1:1.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11394 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:22 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:14 pm
President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:04 pm
Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.
I was partially excited when ghug CC'd because
1) it meant I would probably no longer have to play this game
2) It meant I went 2-for-1 on mafia members if you guys 50/50'd, which is about as good as I could hope for after the Day 1 outing

I think mafia is unlikely to CC now simply because they would be trading 1:1.
They might do it at KILO so any non-Chaqa Cops out there, you have til KILO to claim
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11395 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:25 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:22 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:14 pm
President Eden wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:04 pm
Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.
I was partially excited when ghug CC'd because
1) it meant I would probably no longer have to play this game
2) It meant I went 2-for-1 on mafia members if you guys 50/50'd, which is about as good as I could hope for after the Day 1 outing

I think mafia is unlikely to CC now simply because they would be trading 1:1.
They might do it at KILO so any non-Chaqa Cops out there, you have til KILO to claim
Yeah, a real cop should be claiming last night if one exists. It's too risky at this point to string it along.

This is another point in favor of Chaqa being the real cop, but it should be reiterated nonetheless.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11396 Post by Chaqa » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:28 pm

Say it with me:

if a Cop tries to CC in KILO, they're fake.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11397 Post by ghug » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:33 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:28 pm
Say it with me:

if a Cop tries to CC in KILO, they're fake.
Nah

Punt chalk
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11398 Post by BunnyGo » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:40 pm

@eden I’m pretty sure your math is correct but not so useful. If the Oracle claims, it’s only solved for a VT. and only if they believe all the claims.

I’d rather the Oracle stay hidden at least one more day if possible. Then discuss tomorrow.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11399 Post by President Eden » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:42 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:40 pm
@eden I’m pretty sure your math is correct but not so useful. If the Oracle claims, it’s only solved for a VT. and only if they believe all the claims.

I’d rather the Oracle stay hidden at least one more day if possible. Then discuss tomorrow.
Correct on all counts
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#11400 Post by BunnyGo » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:57 pm

ghug wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:47 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:28 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Oct 06, 2021 9:09 pm

does town have the collective willpower to not start voting them out?
I’m not budging. And I think chaqa, Rdr, Vecna, snowy, worcej, you, TFB, doom, Eden, Ghug and even Sabi are willing to vote Sabi.
Why do you think I'm willing to vote Sabi.
I almost didn’t include you. But decided to for rhetorical emphasis.
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