M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[Doom427]

And I guess that's why I should never play Mafia in the Tub. I put my glasses back on, and now I'll be smart, calm, and collected.

People Scum will never Night Kill-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, TFB(?)
Town clears-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, Flum, Bunny, TFB
Mafia likes to kill town clears, so going for Flum isn't that surprising. We already know they want to keep the "Are PR is scum?!?!?(confirmed!!!!)" Controversy alive (And so do I, it's exciting!), And night killing any of them removes all that controversy and potential misKills. (Unless they night kill WorceJ to leave Bona as the lone Mafia, but... They wouldn't, right?).

Killing Flum has an obvious benefit, and if WorceJ has done the same Calculus, he might protect Flum, and Scum REALLY don't want WorceJ to get another scan off, and have a more solid alibi. So, there is a pretty easy explanation, assuming WorceJ and Chaqa are both townies. It does Make Mafia look like total chumps for losing SO badly on another play. Honesly, Mafia has to make a play. If someone claims Cop, I'll probably default to guessing they're Mafia fake-claiming, because if we have a Scum!Tom, Mafia has to go for it and have someone else claim they're cop.

Hmmm.... So... If no one counterclaims, and Tom is scum.... The only reason Mafia wouldn't counter... Is if They already claimed something else . . Are PR is Scum confirmed!!!!!

What the hell is this 'people will never night kill'? If all these people are in town clear, doesn't that mean they will be nked at some point?

Because Mafia WANT town to think you could be scum.

Haven't scum made that clear by now? Why else are they not killing you?

[Doom427]

And I guess that's why I should never play Mafia in the Tub. I put my glasses back on, and now I'll be smart, calm, and collected.

People Scum will never Night Kill-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, TFB(?)
Town clears-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, Flum, Bunny, TFB
Mafia likes to kill town clears, so going for Flum isn't that surprising. We already know they want to keep the "Are PR is scum?!?!?(confirmed!!!!)" Controversy alive (And so do I, it's exciting!), And night killing any of them removes all that controversy and potential misKills. (Unless they night kill WorceJ to leave Bona as the lone Mafia, but... They wouldn't, right?).

Killing Flum has an obvious benefit, and if WorceJ has done the same Calculus, he might protect Flum, and Scum REALLY don't want WorceJ to get another scan off, and have a more solid alibi. So, there is a pretty easy explanation, assuming WorceJ and Chaqa are both townies. It does Make Mafia look like total chumps for losing SO badly on another play. Honesly, Mafia has to make a play. If someone claims Cop, I'll probably default to guessing they're Mafia fake-claiming, because if we have a Scum!Tom, Mafia has to go for it and have someone else claim they're cop.

Hmmm.... So... If no one counterclaims, and Tom is scum.... The only reason Mafia wouldn't counter... Is if They already claimed something else . . Are PR is Scum confirmed!!!!!

What the hell is this 'people will never night kill'? If all these people are in town clear, doesn't that mean they will be nked at some point?

Because Mafia WANT town to think you could be scum.

Haven't scum made that clear by now? Why else are they not killing you?

(that's not rhetorical. Pls. Tell me what you're thinking? Explain why you posted that?)

[BesharamSabi]

I see bunny has moved from sussing me out to doom.

[BunnyGo]

And I guess that's why I should never play Mafia in the Tub. I put my glasses back on, and now I'll be smart, calm, and collected.

People Scum will never Night Kill-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, TFB(?)
Town clears-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, Flum, Bunny, TFB
Mafia likes to kill town clears, so going for Flum isn't that surprising. We already know they want to keep the "Are PR is scum?!?!?(confirmed!!!!)" Controversy alive (And so do I, it's exciting!), And night killing any of them removes all that controversy and potential misKills. (Unless they night kill WorceJ to leave Bona as the lone Mafia, but... They wouldn't, right?).

Killing Flum has an obvious benefit, and if WorceJ has done the same Calculus, he might protect Flum, and Scum REALLY don't want WorceJ to get another scan off, and have a more solid alibi. So, there is a pretty easy explanation, assuming WorceJ and Chaqa are both townies. It does Make Mafia look like total chumps for losing SO badly on another play. Honesly, Mafia has to make a play. If someone claims Cop, I'll probably default to guessing they're Mafia fake-claiming, because if we have a Scum!Tom, Mafia has to go for it and have someone else claim they're cop.

Hmmm.... So... If no one counterclaims, and Tom is scum.... The only reason Mafia wouldn't counter... Is if They already claimed something else . . Are PR is Scum confirmed!!!!!

What the hell is this 'people will never night kill'? If all these people are in town clear, doesn't that mean they will be nked at some point?

Because Mafia WANT town to think you could be scum.

Haven't scum made that clear by now? Why else are they not killing you?

Bona being scum means worcej AND TFB are scum with no counterclaims (except bozo may he rest in reeses pieces).

[President Eden]

TLDR Flum had interesting reads at least partly vindicated by today's results

Current POE pile for me:
BesharamSabi
Doom427
Jamiet99uk
kgray
Tom Bombadil
Vecna

Can anyone tell me if they have a reasonably strong townread on any of the following?

Doom427
Jamiet99uk
kgray
​Tom Bombadil
Vecna

anyone in my poe
Tom, Jamiet, Kgray, Vecna

That eod was very easily scum vs. town the way it went.
Who knows though. We know nothing. And we probably never will.

I'm still confused how anyone thinks this is town sided. The only reason we're not in an awful position is scum flopping on 3 NK in a row.

Kgray voting Jamiet definitely throws my narrative a little off. I know at least one of my scum reads is wrong since I have too many so it might be one of those two.

A sampling of Fluminator's most direct reads posts. Mercifully, unlike many people in here... [scratches head and glances at the ground]... Flum's reads were consistent and clearly and concisely stated, so you can easily check my work.

It's a bit WIFOM to read too much into why mafia nightkills someone for reads-based reasons, but on balance I think they're more likely to kill people who are right rather than kill people who are wrong to make a meta-narrative play. That said, given Chaqa's scan, he was at least right about Tom. I kinda suspect he was right about more. Killing him is a bit weird from a mechanics standpoint, but if Jamie or jasnah were mafia and Fluminator had the rest of the team in his (much narrower than most) POE pool as a nigh-confirmed town, that would be enough reason to prioritize killing him - and presumably the mafia simply valued ensuring the kill worked over preventing a scan (strange and probably wrong play, but mafia are allowed to misplay...).

Mostly this makes me think Jamie was right, with a side of Vecna being sus but not putting a lot of weight on it just from Flum's views. (You could also interpret it to mean kgray is sus, I just think kgray is town.)

blatant repost for visibility

[Bonatogether]

And I guess that's why I should never play Mafia in the Tub. I put my glasses back on, and now I'll be smart, calm, and collected.

People Scum will never Night Kill-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, TFB(?)
Town clears-WorceJ, Bona, Chaqa, Flum, Bunny, TFB
Mafia likes to kill town clears, so going for Flum isn't that surprising. We already know they want to keep the "Are PR is scum?!?!?(confirmed!!!!)" Controversy alive (And so do I, it's exciting!), And night killing any of them removes all that controversy and potential misKills. (Unless they night kill WorceJ to leave Bona as the lone Mafia, but... They wouldn't, right?).

Killing Flum has an obvious benefit, and if WorceJ has done the same Calculus, he might protect Flum, and Scum REALLY don't want WorceJ to get another scan off, and have a more solid alibi. So, there is a pretty easy explanation, assuming WorceJ and Chaqa are both townies. It does Make Mafia look like total chumps for losing SO badly on another play. Honesly, Mafia has to make a play. If someone claims Cop, I'll probably default to guessing they're Mafia fake-claiming, because if we have a Scum!Tom, Mafia has to go for it and have someone else claim they're cop.

Hmmm.... So... If no one counterclaims, and Tom is scum.... The only reason Mafia wouldn't counter... Is if They already claimed something else . . Are PR is Scum confirmed!!!!!

What the hell is this 'people will never night kill'? If all these people are in town clear, doesn't that mean they will be nked at some point?

Because Mafia WANT town to think you could be scum.

Haven't scum made that clear by now? Why else are they not killing you?

That's a possible theory, but if the theory that me/worcej/chaqa/bozo(?) are scum, then 75% of the scumteam is hardlinked together, which is simply beyond the pale (and some clown is going to say 'ohh but that's what scum bona would do!!!'), but it's simply just so far out there.

[Bonatogether]

What the hell is this 'people will never night kill'? If all these people are in town clear, doesn't that mean they will be nked at some point?

Because Mafia WANT town to think you could be scum.

Haven't scum made that clear by now? Why else are they not killing you?

(that's not rhetorical. Pls. Tell me what you're thinking? Explain why you posted that?)

If worcej/chaqa/me are townclear, then it's implicit that we can't be scum making that play, so scum should start nking us sooner or (most likely) later.

[Doom427]

Because Mafia WANT town to think you could be scum.

Haven't scum made that clear by now? Why else are they not killing you?

(that's not rhetorical. Pls. Tell me what you're thinking? Explain why you posted that?)

If worcej/chaqa/me are townclear, then it's implicit that we can't be scum making that play, so scum should start nking us sooner or (most likely) later.

So, you were posting that because you were worried I thought you would be scum, so to say you're not scum you're posting to say you're totally not scum, and will totally be night killed.

Ok, so you see how I might think you're scum if you're not night killed, right? You could be godfather, very easily, and lying? So Scum team aren't going to kill you. Because either you're telling the truth, but I can't know that. Or you're lying, and their team mate. Either way, they win by keeping the ambiguity alive?

[BunnyGo]

TLDR Flum had interesting reads at least partly vindicated by today's results

Current POE pile for me:
BesharamSabi
Doom427
Jamiet99uk
kgray
Tom Bombadil
Vecna

Can anyone tell me if they have a reasonably strong townread on any of the following?

Doom427
Jamiet99uk
kgray
​Tom Bombadil
Vecna

anyone in my poe
Tom, Jamiet, Kgray, Vecna

That eod was very easily scum vs. town the way it went.
Who knows though. We know nothing. And we probably never will.

I'm still confused how anyone thinks this is town sided. The only reason we're not in an awful position is scum flopping on 3 NK in a row.

Kgray voting Jamiet definitely throws my narrative a little off. I know at least one of my scum reads is wrong since I have too many so it might be one of those two.

A sampling of Fluminator's most direct reads posts. Mercifully, unlike many people in here... [scratches head and glances at the ground]... Flum's reads were consistent and clearly and concisely stated, so you can easily check my work.

It's a bit WIFOM to read too much into why mafia nightkills someone for reads-based reasons, but on balance I think they're more likely to kill people who are right rather than kill people who are wrong to make a meta-narrative play. That said, given Chaqa's scan, he was at least right about Tom. I kinda suspect he was right about more. Killing him is a bit weird from a mechanics standpoint, but if Jamie or jasnah were mafia and Fluminator had the rest of the team in his (much narrower than most) POE pool as a nigh-confirmed town, that would be enough reason to prioritize killing him - and presumably the mafia simply valued ensuring the kill worked over preventing a scan (strange and probably wrong play, but mafia are allowed to misplay...).

Mostly this makes me think Jamie was right, with a side of Vecna being sus but not putting a lot of weight on it just from Flum's views. (You could also interpret it to mean kgray is sus, I just think kgray is town.)

blatant repost for visibility

I see you Eden. We should listen to the dead.

Counter theory:

You (eden) are scum. And hope chaqa would scan you. Then you’d get a godfather clear. Or can keep pushing this BS theory that chaqa isnt the cop.

[BesharamSabi]

SOOO what kind of flavor is earl Grey sirarcha?

[BunnyGo]

SOOO what kind of flavor is earl Grey sirarcha?

Lots of bergamot oil. And pepper sauce on top?

[Tom Bombadil]

Chaqa saying that he wasn’t roleblocked because of godfather is nonsense and you guys are eating it up.

The theory isn’t nonsense, but there is no way were I scum that I would let a cop get a scan off when I was one of like the three most likely people to get scanned.

I’m off to bed, but Y’all need to take a step back and think how ridiculous that would be.

[Bonatogether]

(that's not rhetorical. Pls. Tell me what you're thinking? Explain why you posted that?)

If worcej/chaqa/me are townclear, then it's implicit that we can't be scum making that play, so scum should start nking us sooner or (most likely) later.

So, you were posting that because you were worried I thought you would be scum, so to say you're not scum you're posting to say you're totally not scum, and will totally be night killed.

Ok, so you see how I might think you're scum if you're not night killed, right? You could be godfather, very easily, and lying? So Scum team aren't going to kill you. Because either you're telling the truth, but I can't know that. Or you're lying, and their team mate. Either way, they win by keeping the ambiguity alive?

I don't think you think I'm scum, cause you put me as townclear lmao

That goes for any person marked townclear who isn't dead by lylo.

I'm not sure how me being godfather comes into this, since I haven't been scanned. On assumption I'm scum, I could be either goon or godfather.

You don't need to be 100% confident in order to have a working understanding of the game. If we waited for 100% confidence on anything, town would be paralyzed, because we have no universal mechanical pieces of information. All we have is what people said, how people voted, and what people's metas are. If we want to keep up every .1% chance, then we're losing sight of the simple and obvious move here - kill in PoE until d9, kill chaqa, then start killing up the towny list.

[BesharamSabi]

SOOO what kind of flavor is earl Grey sirarcha?

Lots of bergamot oil. And pepper sauce on top?

It apparently a real thing? Wow https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article ... on-market/

[kgray]

If worcej/chaqa/me are townclear, then it's implicit that we can't be scum making that play, so scum should start nking us sooner or (most likely) later.

So, you were posting that because you were worried I thought you would be scum, so to say you're not scum you're posting to say you're totally not scum, and will totally be night killed.

Ok, so you see how I might think you're scum if you're not night killed, right? You could be godfather, very easily, and lying? So Scum team aren't going to kill you. Because either you're telling the truth, but I can't know that. Or you're lying, and their team mate. Either way, they win by keeping the ambiguity alive?

I don't think you think I'm scum, cause you put me as townclear lmao

That goes for any person marked townclear who isn't dead by lylo.

I'm not sure how me being godfather comes into this, since I haven't been scanned. On assumption I'm scum, I could be either goon or godfather.

You don't need to be 100% confident in order to have a working understanding of the game. If we waited for 100% confidence on anything, town would be paralyzed, because we have no universal mechanical pieces of information. All we have is what people said, how people voted, and what people's metas are. If we want to keep up every .1% chance, then we're losing sight of the simple and obvious move here - kill in PoE until d9, kill chaqa, then start killing up the towny list.

Wat

[rdrivera2005]

Chaqa saying that he wasn’t roleblocked because of godfather is nonsense and you guys are eating it up.

The theory isn’t nonsense, but there is no way were I scum that I would let a cop get a scan off when I was one of like the three most likely people to get scanned.

I’m off to bed, but Y’all need to take a step back and think how ridiculous that would be.

I agree this is ridiculous. But what you think of scum claiming a guilt on you with an Oracle still alive?

[Tom Bombadil]

Chaqa saying that he wasn’t roleblocked because of godfather is nonsense and you guys are eating it up.

The theory isn’t nonsense, but there is no way were I scum that I would let a cop get a scan off when I was one of like the three most likely people to get scanned.

I’m off to bed, but Y’all need to take a step back and think how ridiculous that would be.

I agree this is ridiculous. But what you think of scum claiming a guilt on you with an Oracle still alive?

It sorta makes sense if they thought a cop might still be alive. Plus, Chaqa can’t live forever without being suspicious. It 1) would cause a cop cc if there was one 2) guarantees a miskill 3) uses an Oracle on a townie - which kinda wastes it. Sure it condemns Chaqa but see point 1

[rdrivera2005]

Chaqa saying that he wasn’t roleblocked because of godfather is nonsense and you guys are eating it up.

The theory isn’t nonsense, but there is no way were I scum that I would let a cop get a scan off when I was one of like the three most likely people to get scanned.

I’m off to bed, but Y’all need to take a step back and think how ridiculous that would be.

I agree this is ridiculous. But what you think of scum claiming a guilt on you with an Oracle still alive?

It sorta makes sense if they thought a cop might still be alive. Plus, Chaqa can’t live forever without being suspicious. It 1) would cause a cop cc if there was one 2) guarantees a miskill 3) uses an Oracle on a townie - which kinda wastes it. Sure it condemns Chaqa but see point 1

Agree, but why a)there isn't a CC? b)Choose you, a really likely miskill?

[Tom Bombadil]

Chaqa saying that he wasn’t roleblocked because of godfather is nonsense and you guys are eating it up.

The theory isn’t nonsense, but there is no way were I scum that I would let a cop get a scan off when I was one of like the three most likely people to get scanned.

I’m off to bed, but Y’all need to take a step back and think how ridiculous that would be.

I agree this is ridiculous. But what you think of scum claiming a guilt on you with an Oracle still alive?

It sorta makes sense if they thought a cop might still be alive. Plus, Chaqa can’t live forever without being suspicious. It 1) would cause a cop cc if there was one 2) guarantees a miskill 3) uses an Oracle on a townie - which kinda wastes it. Sure it condemns Chaqa but see point 1

I guess point 0. The one where Chaqa can’t live to the endgame without being suspicious

[ghug]

Obviously if there's a cc there's a cc, but short of one I'm pretty comfortable putting the Chaqa controversy to rest. I think they just fucked up with the roleblock assignment or else were that scared of Fluminator. But killing Flum ahead of PRs isn't actually that ludicrous if he's just right about everything.

I feel like I want more awkward contrition from Eden when making this turnaround. Feels off.