M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

it's over 9000

[kgray]

You voted for Tom twice at that EoD, and when asked, couldn't explain why. Taking that at face value, why is it hard to imagine other town players could have acted suboptimally or inexplicably at the same time?

It is not hard to imagine other townies acting suboptimally right at EOD. It was chaos. Worcej himself didn't even end up on bozo lmao. My concern about Vecna is the ~3 minutes between bozo's claim and worcej's CC. I don't see how Vecna's inaction during that time logically follows his stated goals of figuring out if he believed bozo's claim and protecting worcej.

Fair enough.

Why do you think I'm more likely to hound you incessantly with a scumread for reasons you think are irrational and poorly thought out as scum than as town?

Do you think Vecna's EOD makes sense for how he is now describing his thought process?

And I don't think you'd buddy me after that one game, and I think this is distracting and prevents me from doing more relevant things. I think if you were town and thought I were scum you'd either have "better" (imo) reasons, or you wouldn't feel the need to constantly remind everyone of your read. You're always encouraging wagons on me but I don't actually see you trying to convince people that I'm scum. A lot of it is just noise, at some point.

[Vecna]

Did you not see bozo's claim or did you not believe it?

I saw it, and I saw Bona stating to "get him"

Then I started to spam refresh on the thread and the bot to try and see whether worcej was coming into danger.

Why did you townread worcej?

Yeah for these rudimentary questions ill refer you to my iso on the bot and my extensive history of explaining this.

[Doom427]

I keep getting confused by a work thing, then coming on here and hoping I'll see something that solves the whole game. I need a win this week, and if work won't give it to me, I'll need it from y'all.

Please, if my posts have ever spoken to your heart, make a scumslip? One I could see, preferably?

[ghug]

It is not hard to imagine other townies acting suboptimally right at EOD. It was chaos. Worcej himself didn't even end up on bozo lmao. My concern about Vecna is the ~3 minutes between bozo's claim and worcej's CC. I don't see how Vecna's inaction during that time logically follows his stated goals of figuring out if he believed bozo's claim and protecting worcej.

Fair enough.

Why do you think I'm more likely to hound you incessantly with a scumread for reasons you think are irrational and poorly thought out as scum than as town?

Do you think Vecna's EOD makes sense for how he is now describing his thought process?

And I don't think you'd buddy me after that one game, and I think this is distracting and prevents me from doing more relevant things. I think if you were town and thought I were scum you'd either have "better" (imo) reasons, or you wouldn't feel the need to constantly remind everyone of your read. You're always encouraging wagons on me but I don't actually see you trying to convince people that I'm scum. A lot of it is just noise, at some point.

Yeah, kind of. I think a bunch of people, you and me included, did things at that EoD that arguably look scummy, but I know from both the quantity and my knowledge of my own alignment that there are townies in that group, and don't see how to sort them.

Your answer to the latter question seems shitty and OMGUSy, but I actually kinda like that. I continue to think it's unfair to speak about it in the present tense, because I've scaled back to asking you a few questions this phase. Calling out things that point to your being scum when I see them is an effective way of convincing others that you're scum. I happen to be pretty good at getting people killed, for better or for worse, and that's largely how I do it. I don't think my behavior is out of line with what you've seen from me as town (or scum, really, but usually I spend less time on gut and arguing about it when I'm scum), which leaves me incredulous.

[BesharamSabi]

Where is worcej?

[TheFlyingBoat]

Votes of the Scum Targets for non-CC PR/conf town:

Damo: Could have been killed because some viewed Damo incorrectly as the Cop. Votes made: jamie, kgray, jasnah

Important to note that damo voted for plenty of our town as well so I don't think his vote are what scared mafia. Imo it's fairly obvious it was his "townread/assumed N0 given scan" on PE. Turns out he's just a vt shooting in the dark. I don't think his votes imply that any one person in the list has to be scum, but it is important to make note of it for completeness.

Bona: D1: Flu, jasnah, kgray D2: Eden, Bozo. Some could believe he was the cop I guess due to the early Chaqa wagon suggesting a disbelief in the claim followed by a "clearly scum call" on bozo which could be chalked up to a cop scan.

lfischl: D1: jasnah D2: Bozo D3: Bozo

This one is the most puzzling. I don't think lfischl ever crumbed cop that hard and I don't think he was ever I'm position to really hurt mafia by leading a wagon against them, has reads on bozo, eden, and jamie, but the latter two seemed based on the gladiation and said one of them were prolly scum. No PR focus except on the role of Oracle, so maybe they are Oracle??!? Idk this one is weird. He had a meme vote on Vecna when everyone did but that means nothing.

To rationalize the lfischl kill I want to give my perspective as to what I was thinking when I was making the JOAT save. I have no clue how close to this the mafia thought I was thinking but maybe it will help the rest of the town figure it out. My first thought was create the outcome matrix assuming I was going to save either Chaqa or Worcej under the assumption that mafia would spend a role block and a kill only on them.

In my view there were three possibilities: RBC/KW, RBW/KW, RBW/KC, and RBC/KC. At first, I ruled out RBC/KC as very out there. The only reason to do it is if you were truly paranoid about Chaqa being saved by me with my JOAT shot and wanted to prevent the guy from getting a claim no matter what. This started to seem like an increasingly plausible possibility so I included it heavily in my analysis. Looking at those outcomes, I tried to rationalize what Worcej would if he weren't role blocked. I came to the conclusion that he would likely save Chaqa and that his order to not save Chaqa was an indication that he would be and that the JOAT should save elsewhere.

Incredibly uncertain guess as it is entirely possible he genuinely meant Chaqa shouldn't be protected OR that he wouldn't be protecting him and I should (tbh the most likely one now that I think about it, especially since it would be mean for a death to occur, Chaqa would have to get a scan unless mafia somehow caught my crumb and RBed me), but that was my thought process. After WIFOMing myself for about half an hour I decided the obvious move of RBW/KC was so obvious that mafia wouldn't risk going for it knowing that protecting Chaqa was my most likely play. Given that I viewed RBW/KC as INCREDIBLY unlikely I decided that protecting Worcej was the better choice here and that it gave us the best chance at outguessing mafia.

But then I thought about it some more. Wouldn't it be really smart to kill Bona here assuming that I would limit my corpus of possibilities to just Chaqa and Worcej? Worcej can't protect Bona now, so shouldn't I? I then decided that was the best move! But wait! Surely a good mafia would see that as a strong possibility too. They can't afford to go two days in a row with no kills. Who is a good town target that isn't likely to be protected but everyone likes as town and is good at the game? Durga! I got to go there! The more I thought about the more I realized these 4 would form a good corpus and I should just roll a 4 sided dice to decide between them before I lose my mind in a WIFOM chain that never ends. Anyways it wound up on Worcej. Turns out they killed lfischl instead. Good for them. I would never have thought to save lfischl and that's a townie a lot of people would want dead before milo or kilo so imo not a bad thing.

Didn't get nearly as much here in terms of scum reads as I was hoping though...

Perhaps it might make sense to go the other way and see who has led wagons on obv town?

Present Town conf:

Bona

Worcej

Flum

Chaqa

BunnyGo

Me

My likely town:

Durga: Every sign I've gotten from her has pointed overwhelmingly town and I think most people seem to agree on this

rdrivera: Bona actually convinced me on this point a while back when I had a null on him. He hasn't been the most active, but when he has he has made good posts. Might behoove me to do a reread here just in case though.

Sabi: Too many town slips to be mafia. The kill before kilo advocates I view as silly here. I see your arguments here given we have nothing and they've spent most of the game lazily tunneling on me or worcej, but I think it's forgivable since it's their first mafia game on a forum, this is a high volume game that is hard to follow, and their rl stuff has been brutal from what they've shared

PoE List:

Doom

ghug

jamie

kgray

PE

Snowy

Tom of the Shire

Vecna





Bona: Bun/Flum. Nothing there

Worcej:

D1: BesharamSabi Durga Tom Bombadil bozotheclown snowy801 ghug Chaqa TheFlyingBoat

He was the primary counter wagon to jasnah. There are 2 town clears and 2 of my likely towns on here plus one conf scum. Could a large portion of the scum be in here? Bozo +Tom/Snowy/Ghug? Maybe? Not impossible. For context on D1 the other votes we jasnah for PE, Bona and RDR for Chaqa but I think both of them were offline post-claim, while the following were votes for jasnah:

worcej* Doom427 damo666* lfischl BunnyGo Jamiet99uk Fluminator President Eden kgray Vecna

I don't know how much can be gained from D1 votes alone. Will try do more analysis this weekend when I have time.

D2: Eden casts the first vote and then hops off onto Bozo. Bozo casts the new first vote for worcej. 5 mins after Bozo's vote, Eden hops back onto for vote #2. 15 minutes after that Doom hops on the train for vote #3 (their vote didn't get read by the bot so they revote 1 hour later, still vote 3 though). An hour or so after Sabi hops on then so does Tom for wave 1 of the worcej wagon on D2. Eden then hops off again for Tom. Doom follows quickly after. One thing I noted is that on D2 is that Doom did seem to follow Eden's vote on every vote they made. Interesting to note. Tom then jumps off to pursue kgray. The wagon slowly fizzes out until 20 mins before end.

The second wave begins with Snowy, followed rapidly be Durga, Pres, and Sabi. Just as the wave was building Snowy hops off of the wagon to flash me. One oddity of snowy's votes this game is he tends to hop off just as momentum is building. Given his rep I would not expect this. Durga then jumps as well. Tom, Snowy, and I then jump on (wtf snowy?) and then snowy jumps back off. Claims start to go wild after bozo claims doc then worcej claims doc. There is better analysis on these votes so I'll leave it there since I am running low on time


Flum

Really on happened Day 1 while being incredibly weird. Mea culpa. At one point it had me, kgray, Flum himself, snowy, and bozo. Not much there

Chaqa

This one is interesting D1. It starts with ghug, before Eden jumps on, hops off, and the hops back on again, cycling between him and jasnah. Then Durga hops on, RDR hops on, Durga hope off to damo, kgray hops on from flum, Flum stops voting for Chaqa and goes to worcej, while Bona hops on Chaqa, kgray does a Cha to Jamie and back again flip flops, snowy hops on from Flum via a stop over at Worcej for 3 mins, I hop onto Chaqa, Bozo then hops on to make it the leading one. Snowy hops off onto Flum for one of his classic "my wagon is winning let's start a flash on a rando with <10mins left. He then jumps onto Worcej following Chaqa's cop claim. The Chaqa wagon dies here.

Then you have the Eden/Kgray "Damo is Cop" axis which we can absolutely reject now. Bona and Chaqa jump on. Falls apart quickly enough as 31 hours in there's no one there. Chaqa then asks for a mod kill by misspelling y'all at which point a small wagon forms then dies.

D4: Eden returns

BunnyGo: Day 1 kgray, Durga, and ghug (what an alliance) lead a march against bunny for being bunny and other things. Doom, Damo, and I hop on. Jas and elfish hop on. Then it dematerializes as people believe his miller claim.

Me:

D1: All just meme votes

D2: Snowy sets up a wagon, Sabi joins, Snowy abandons it for worcej before coming back to me for a flash wagon BEFORE the claim by worcej but after Bunny's. Ghug hops on BEFORE bozo's role claim as well. After the first claim Bunny votes for me. The wagon quickly falls apart after a double claim.

I guess after this kgray looks less scum than I though before, President Eden and Doom seem to stick out to me as a vet-new player pairing. I could see Snowy as mafia 4. Maybe Tom/Ghug as well.

My vote prefs: Eden>=Doom>Snowy>Tom>=Ghug


##VOTE Eden

[ghug]

^ nerd

[snowy801]

bruh

[Bonatogether]

I want to vote from the PoE consensus pool, but also on someone who hammered Bozo.

I think mafia would try to be part of that to gain town cred.

One of:
Vecna
Jamie
Snowy

##Vote Snowy

I vibe with this list.

[ghug]

Boat, I'm having trouble getting from your evidence to your conclusions. Can you explain more how you've reached the reads you have from your analysis?

[Doom427]

I want to vote from the PoE consensus pool, but also on someone who hammered Bozo.

I think mafia would try to be part of that to gain town cred.

One of:
Vecna
Jamie
Snowy

##Vote Snowy

I vibe with this list.

Yeah, I can accept going for someone who would have done the basic scum play. I'm hoping we go for Tom cause I think he's the best oracle read, but Oracle might stay alive for a while, so let's do it.

##VOTE Jamie

To try and tie up the list for now.

[President Eden]

Boat, I'm having trouble getting from your evidence to your conclusions. Can you explain more how you've reached the reads you have from your analysis?

This. It felt pithy going back and quoting Doom's conspiracy theory about me to retort just the part about me and Doom, amidst a very large and high-effort analysis post, but I wasn't sure what else to say because I got lost somewhere in the A -> B.

[Bonatogether]

Bonatogether
Doom427
rdrivera2005
TheFlyingBoat
Vecna

You peeps going to vote?

i'm thinking, i'm thinking

[Doom427]

Boat, I'm having trouble getting from your evidence to your conclusions. Can you explain more how you've reached the reads you have from your analysis?

This. It felt pithy going back and quoting Doom's conspiracy theory about me to retort just the part about me and Doom, amidst a very large and high-effort analysis post, but I wasn't sure what else to say because I got lost somewhere in the A -> B.

Is it a conspiracy theory in a game where we are literally trying to discover a secret conspiracy of players?

(I still think it's a solid theory for the Damo kill, if Chaqa really is Cop)

[President Eden]

Boat, I'm having trouble getting from your evidence to your conclusions. Can you explain more how you've reached the reads you have from your analysis?

This. It felt pithy going back and quoting Doom's conspiracy theory about me to retort just the part about me and Doom, amidst a very large and high-effort analysis post, but I wasn't sure what else to say because I got lost somewhere in the A -> B.

Is it a conspiracy theory in a game where we are literally trying to discover a secret conspiracy of players?

(I still think it's a solid theory for the Damo kill, if Chaqa really is Cop)

Quite literally yes.
In the implied context that it's wrong, well... still yes, but I can see why, if you didn't have my role PM, you'd think that unfair

[Bonatogether]

I think the Oracle should probably claim today?

Mafia has like two or three priority nightkills before they would kill Oracle, so wouldn't taking someone else out of the PoE make a lot of sense?

Doesn't oracle only work on death? This seems like a terrible strategy.

[Fluminator]

I'm looking at the bot and Snowy is the leading wagon? Please don't kill Snowy. He's so town.

And the wagon mostly consists of town clears which should be a redflag because usually townclears have the worst reads.

[ghug]

I'm looking at the bot and Snowy is the leading wagon? Please don't kill Snowy. He's so town.

And the wagon mostly consists of town clears which should be a redflag because usually townclears have the worst reads.

I slightly prefer the wagon full of clears to the wagon full of scum.

[Durga]

I'm looking at the bot and Snowy is the leading wagon? Please don't kill Snowy. He's so town.

And the wagon mostly consists of town clears which should be a redflag because usually townclears have the worst reads.

I agree with this