M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2681 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:24 am

i'm gonna be honest, i'm pretty sure jasnah was town, so i think we're looking for 4 mafia still.


BesharamSabi
town; effort, conviction, no awkwardness, a little bit of silliness with the self-voting

Bonatogether
town; effort, good observations, pushes with some conviction. rationale for switching to chaqa near eod was pretty odd, but only really aligns with town perspectives; no one would fault him for copy-pasting ghug's or kgray's argument or claiming a gut read + trusting his town reads, so as mafia there's no real need to manufacture some information-based argument when he could sheep existing arguments that directly call chaqa mafia instead.

bozotheclown
on the periphery, but insightful questions and observations when he is around. technically null, but i think he's town

BunnyGo
miller; and doing a great job creating a cohesive pro-town environment in any case. sad that he almost certainly leaves us in 15 hours.

Chaqa
i am going to have a really hard time voting anybody else tomorrow

damo666
see bozo basically, town

Doom427
see sabi basically, minus the self-voting part, town

Durga
i think she's mafia but i get why people wouldn't really buy it. chaqa comes up a ton in her iso, but there's very little direct interaction, and the most interesting example of it, to me, is direct coordination on a viable counterwagon to... him. and while she's careful to throw some shade his way and not to be too buddy-buddy, when the chips are down near EOD she decides that jasnah, who she describes as "obviously town" for most of the day, is a better kill than him. seems like mafia teammates to me.
none of this is stuff that can't also come from town, and of course if chaqa is town then a lot of this doesn't matter. but in a no-flip game, it strikes me that we might need to trust our instincts on these types of things, as we won't be able to verify that chaqa is mafia and then decide how to handle durga. chaqa is extremely suspicious and if he is mafia, durga's behavior is suspicious as well.

Fluminator
feels like he's mostly just been around without making a big impact, but i dig his post on pg 99 to jamie. i'm pretty sure he straight up whiffed on eod1, but he did say that he was operating under the premise that chaqa was cop, which chaqa has retracted. so it'll be interesting to see how he reassesses in light of that. i feel like i'm supposed to townread him here and i can't tell you why i'm hesitant or would be hesitant, so i guess take it as a town read, but lacking the same conviction as some of the previous ones.

ghug
i have never been so hype for a ghug game in my life, this guy is on fire, town

Jamiet99uk
i guess i should townread flum if i'm going to steal his point... i'm shocked jamie has 140 posts. a quick reread didn't really show me anything powerful or compelling either. lots of correct but ultimately not very deep observations, many of which cover no novel ground. and he wasn't around at eod, which was a pretty revealing time. none of that means he has to be mafia obviously, but none of it makes him town either. technically null, but in a way that's suspicious, if that makes sense

kgray
clear town. had some killer posts to close out the day including nailing chaqa. i read too far into not liking her questioning style, clearly a matter of playstyle and not alignment.

lfischl
basically jamie, minus 100 posts. chimed in on a lot of random things without much conviction or new insight. i'm aware he's newer and maybe it's unfair to put a lot of expectation on him to do a bunch, but compare the investment in finding the answers to fellow newer players sabi and doom and the contrast is stark. like jamie, technically null, but in a way that's suspicious

rdrivera2005
town; low posting volume but high quality content in it, very engaging when he's around.

snowy801
town, doing usual town snowy things. lots of energy and engagement, constantly driving at sorting alignments, good votes.

TheFlyingBoat
town enough, copy paste snowy description, i'm kind of fading now so sorry if this is getting low quality

Tom Bombadil
similar to bozo, on the periphery but insightful when present. technically null but i'm thinking more likely town than not. would like to see more though.

Vecna
his eod sucked. i feel like i'm cribbing this observation from someone so claim it if it's yours. he was very invested in protecting worcej. calls chaqa wagon glorious, says he thought chaqa effectively claimed mafia, never votes chaqa. starts wanting to vote ghug when ghug was at his towniest this game. would be pretty inexcusable absent alcohol and i am not sure i'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on that...
tough slot to read because up until eod he seemed like normal town vecna, his body of work looks fine, typical activity and engagement and such, but his eod was not good. logically i think i'm supposed to townread him overall, but intuitively something is amiss and i'm not gonna. null

worcej
i liked his early constructive posting about the setup and optimal strategy, but as the game progressed to real reads i got the sense that he was mailing things in a bit. i understand there's some past history between him and a few players in here and maybe he is deliberately not naming names to minimize the pot-stirring, but there's a lot of what look like veiled shots at ghug, durga and kgray that sort of pass for reads but don't really go the distance. he seemed a bit too content to kill jasnah and move on, and while i don't think that was the worst plan, i think an important part of "move on" is to hunt for the next targets, and that aspect of his game felt lacking as the day wound down. lots of shading his wagon which, to be fair, i don't think was the best wagon, but not a lot of concrete application or clear direction.
i'm going with a null here for now. and like jamie etc., that null is probably revealing.



summary

town: sabi, bona, bunny, damo, doom, ghug, kgray, rivera, snowy, boat
good null: bozo, flum, tom
idk null: vecna
bad null: jamie, lfischl, worcej
mafia: chaqa, durga
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ghug
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2682 Post by ghug » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:35 am

President Eden wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:24 am
i'm gonna be honest, i'm pretty sure jasnah was town, so i think we're looking for 4 mafia still.


BesharamSabi
town; effort, conviction, no awkwardness, a little bit of silliness with the self-voting

Bonatogether
town; effort, good observations, pushes with some conviction. rationale for switching to chaqa near eod was pretty odd, but only really aligns with town perspectives; no one would fault him for copy-pasting ghug's or kgray's argument or claiming a gut read + trusting his town reads, so as mafia there's no real need to manufacture some information-based argument when he could sheep existing arguments that directly call chaqa mafia instead.

bozotheclown
on the periphery, but insightful questions and observations when he is around. technically null, but i think he's town

BunnyGo
miller; and doing a great job creating a cohesive pro-town environment in any case. sad that he almost certainly leaves us in 15 hours.

Chaqa
i am going to have a really hard time voting anybody else tomorrow

damo666
see bozo basically, town

Doom427
see sabi basically, minus the self-voting part, town

Durga
i think she's mafia but i get why people wouldn't really buy it. chaqa comes up a ton in her iso, but there's very little direct interaction, and the most interesting example of it, to me, is direct coordination on a viable counterwagon to... him. and while she's careful to throw some shade his way and not to be too buddy-buddy, when the chips are down near EOD she decides that jasnah, who she describes as "obviously town" for most of the day, is a better kill than him. seems like mafia teammates to me.
none of this is stuff that can't also come from town, and of course if chaqa is town then a lot of this doesn't matter. but in a no-flip game, it strikes me that we might need to trust our instincts on these types of things, as we won't be able to verify that chaqa is mafia and then decide how to handle durga. chaqa is extremely suspicious and if he is mafia, durga's behavior is suspicious as well.

Fluminator
feels like he's mostly just been around without making a big impact, but i dig his post on pg 99 to jamie. i'm pretty sure he straight up whiffed on eod1, but he did say that he was operating under the premise that chaqa was cop, which chaqa has retracted. so it'll be interesting to see how he reassesses in light of that. i feel like i'm supposed to townread him here and i can't tell you why i'm hesitant or would be hesitant, so i guess take it as a town read, but lacking the same conviction as some of the previous ones.

ghug
i have never been so hype for a ghug game in my life, this guy is on fire, town

Jamiet99uk
i guess i should townread flum if i'm going to steal his point... i'm shocked jamie has 140 posts. a quick reread didn't really show me anything powerful or compelling either. lots of correct but ultimately not very deep observations, many of which cover no novel ground. and he wasn't around at eod, which was a pretty revealing time. none of that means he has to be mafia obviously, but none of it makes him town either. technically null, but in a way that's suspicious, if that makes sense

kgray
clear town. had some killer posts to close out the day including nailing chaqa. i read too far into not liking her questioning style, clearly a matter of playstyle and not alignment.

lfischl
basically jamie, minus 100 posts. chimed in on a lot of random things without much conviction or new insight. i'm aware he's newer and maybe it's unfair to put a lot of expectation on him to do a bunch, but compare the investment in finding the answers to fellow newer players sabi and doom and the contrast is stark. like jamie, technically null, but in a way that's suspicious

rdrivera2005
town; low posting volume but high quality content in it, very engaging when he's around.

snowy801
town, doing usual town snowy things. lots of energy and engagement, constantly driving at sorting alignments, good votes.

TheFlyingBoat
town enough, copy paste snowy description, i'm kind of fading now so sorry if this is getting low quality

Tom Bombadil
similar to bozo, on the periphery but insightful when present. technically null but i'm thinking more likely town than not. would like to see more though.

Vecna
his eod sucked. i feel like i'm cribbing this observation from someone so claim it if it's yours. he was very invested in protecting worcej. calls chaqa wagon glorious, says he thought chaqa effectively claimed mafia, never votes chaqa. starts wanting to vote ghug when ghug was at his towniest this game. would be pretty inexcusable absent alcohol and i am not sure i'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on that...
tough slot to read because up until eod he seemed like normal town vecna, his body of work looks fine, typical activity and engagement and such, but his eod was not good. logically i think i'm supposed to townread him overall, but intuitively something is amiss and i'm not gonna. null

worcej
i liked his early constructive posting about the setup and optimal strategy, but as the game progressed to real reads i got the sense that he was mailing things in a bit. i understand there's some past history between him and a few players in here and maybe he is deliberately not naming names to minimize the pot-stirring, but there's a lot of what look like veiled shots at ghug, durga and kgray that sort of pass for reads but don't really go the distance. he seemed a bit too content to kill jasnah and move on, and while i don't think that was the worst plan, i think an important part of "move on" is to hunt for the next targets, and that aspect of his game felt lacking as the day wound down. lots of shading his wagon which, to be fair, i don't think was the best wagon, but not a lot of concrete application or clear direction.
i'm going with a null here for now. and like jamie etc., that null is probably revealing.



summary

town: sabi, bona, bunny, damo, doom, ghug, kgray, rivera, snowy, boat
good null: bozo, flum, tom
idk null: vecna
bad null: jamie, lfischl, worcej
mafia: chaqa, durga
I'll read the rest of your 3AM essay in a minute, but why are you pretty sure jasnah was town after being willing to kill her much of D1?
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ghug
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2683 Post by ghug » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:36 am

Oh it's fucking reads ##VOTE EDEN
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2684 Post by ghug » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:39 am

Ok I read half of them.

I like some of it like the Jamie shade and liking me and not liking Chaqa or Durga.. Prob scum though. What moron taught you law though? I briefly looked up to you as a child.
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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2685 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:43 am

I viewed jasnah as by far the best “miss” available if she were in fact town—there were a couple of “utility” reasons to kill her that didn’t depend on her alignment:
• resolving the Miller claims so people could move on, as several players locked into that issue and didn’t do much of anything else;
• ensuring we didn’t vote a potentially productive player out, as for whatever merits jasnah may have as an individual player, she played very counterproductively for town as a team.

None of that has anything to do with her alignment, so we looked for better shots and found a good one in Chaqa.
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ghug
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2686 Post by ghug » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:52 am

President Eden wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:43 am
I viewed jasnah as by far the best “miss” available if she were in fact town—there were a couple of “utility” reasons to kill her that didn’t depend on her alignment:
• resolving the Miller claims so people could move on, as several players locked into that issue and didn’t do much of anything else;
• ensuring we didn’t vote a potentially productive player out, as for whatever merits jasnah may have as an individual player, she played very counterproductively for town as a team.

None of that has anything to do with her alignment, so we looked for better shots and found a good one in Chaqa.
If you wanted to no kill and thought jasnah was town, why didn't you tie the vote in the final seconds?
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ghug
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2687 Post by ghug » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:53 am

Hello boatman
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2688 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:58 am

ghug wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:53 am
Hello boatman
Hi ghug, just checking to see what new posts there were before I headed to bed. How are you?
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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2689 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:58 am

ghug wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:52 am
President Eden wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:43 am
I viewed jasnah as by far the best “miss” available if she were in fact town—there were a couple of “utility” reasons to kill her that didn’t depend on her alignment:
• resolving the Miller claims so people could move on, as several players locked into that issue and didn’t do much of anything else;
• ensuring we didn’t vote a potentially productive player out, as for whatever merits jasnah may have as an individual player, she played very counterproductively for town as a team.

None of that has anything to do with her alignment, so we looked for better shots and found a good one in Chaqa.
If you wanted to no kill and thought jasnah was town, why didn't you tie the vote in the final seconds?
That’s a good question. I got lost in the moment after Chaqa claimed. Tying might actually have been good there, but even after discussing it, it’s so unintuitive that I just didn’t think about it. And honestly it’s hard to say for sure if putting the jasnah controversy to rest is worth the lost townie. I get the feeling that several people were going to use it to skate through as many days as possible.
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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2690 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:01 am

ghug wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:39 am
Ok I read half of them.

I like some of it like the Jamie shade and liking me and not liking Chaqa or Durga.. Prob scum though. What moron taught you law though? I briefly looked up to you as a child.
also, never meet your heroes. names of professors will be kept secret to protect their reputations from association with me :)
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2691 Post by ghug » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:04 am

President Eden wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:01 am
ghug wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:39 am
Ok I read half of them.

I like some of it like the Jamie shade and liking me and not liking Chaqa or Durga.. Prob scum though. What moron taught you law though? I briefly looked up to you as a child.
also, never meet your heroes. names of professors will be kept secret to protect their reputations from association with me :)
I didn't say you were my hero. I just thought you were good at Diplomacy and then you thought I was an adult and I took the upper hand. #fuckthucy
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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2692 Post by President Eden » Sat Sep 25, 2021 9:07 am

Damn I miss that dude. Wonder how he is these days
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2693 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:13 am

Bonatogether wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 4:32 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 3:57 am
First analysis of a pair of players: Bona-Durga

<snip>

Conclusions? I'm just surprised that the two of them managed to both be fairly active, and basically the same times, and engage with lots of players--except each other.

Time for sleep (my date is complaining about the typing waking her).
What conclusions do you draw from it? You did the analysis.
As a bayesian signal only: I had previous had a null on Durga and a scumlean on you. This moved her higher as a consequence and you as well.

My thoughts on hunting here: I need to find whole teams because finding individuals and then using their flips to update my priors on other reads doesn't work.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2694 Post by damo666 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:21 am

@Chaqa

If you are not cop please hardclaim not cop so PRs don't waste a save on you.

If you are cop please specify whether you want doc or JOAT to heal you to save duplication and guarantee you get a scan in.
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damo666
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2695 Post by damo666 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:25 am

Could somebody from the scumteam please tell us what you are talking about in your night chat.

Thanks.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2696 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:35 am

damo666 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:21 am
@Chaqa

If you are not cop please hardclaim not cop so PRs don't waste a save on you.

If you are cop please specify whether you want doc or JOAT to heal you to save duplication and guarantee you get a scan in.
Dude...let him WIFOM the scum team all he wants. Nobody is going to save me...Nobody should <wink>
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2697 Post by Tom Bombadil » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:42 am

5 minute recap for someone who is traveling this weekend?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2698 Post by damo666 » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:51 am

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:42 am
5 minute recap for someone who is traveling this weekend?
Jasnah is dead

Chaqa claimd cop and retracted.

That's it.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2699 Post by BesharamSabi » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:55 am

Vecna got a 12 center lone top in round one of vdl this morning.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#2700 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:56 am

damo666 wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:51 am
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:42 am
5 minute recap for someone who is traveling this weekend?
Jasnah is dead

Chaqa claimd cop and retracted.

That's it.
Lots of people ran around flashwagoning. Maybe somebody can get a signal from that noise.
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