Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[celaph]

I still like my plan, it just means we could also DK Bona today without limiting the PoE, unless Bona is doing some sort of big-brain reverse psychology play... so maybe just no kill anyway.

We shouldn't hypothesize about whether Bona is doing big brain plays today. Save that for later. Also, his willingness to get himself killed is a bad reason to scumread Bona imo.

[celaph]

I don’t think I fully realized that lfischl was due to be replaced or modkilled when he died. This really reinforces my belief scum could have bussed

Makes me suspicious of Maniac mostly

What do you make of the way that Maniac pushed back against the early formation of the ghug wagon D2? It's certainly some of the bolder play by him regardless of ghug's alignment and given Maniac's past propensity to bus I can only really imagine defending ghug like that if ghug is GF.

Or he was standing up against a shitty town wagon in an attempt to look useful.

Went back to reread Maniac's scum performance last game. In D2 reads list scum are in 3 of the 4 bottom spots. Certainly not opposed to bussing. N2 has both other scum as bottom two reads. -1 town points for Maniac.

I would add that he doesn't really prop up town, but then again he wasn't really given the option to do so.

My review also reminded me of D2 M62 when town Maniac voted when of his strongest townreads because they were otherwise widely scumread. Now, I would like to believe that he has changed since then, but I think I've come around on the idea that while Maniac's defense on ghug is certainly atypical, it may not be town Maniac.

[celaph]

Oh wow, DL8 is browsing. Hi man!! Come back!

I'm thinking atm Bob is the most likely busser. I think he voted for his teammate, went to sleep expecting nothing bad to happen, and then came back to find Lfischl flipped.

The only Bob pairing I can see work is Bob/Rdr for the way he started the worcej wagon on D2. On looking back at it I kinda get the vibes that he needed a reason to create a and take pressure off someone with the only candidate being Rdr. Also worth noting that Rdr advocated giving Bob townpoints for starting the wagon regardless of Worcej's alignment.

Does Rd really say that about a teammate starting a wagon to save him?

The obvious reaction is no because you don't want to draw attention to a teammate saving you. But I think that rdr is self aware enough to know that calling attention to yourself is not always bad and I think he respects enough to know that we would notice the timing of Bob's wagon regardless of his comments.

I'm not convinced that his comments make the case significantly stronger, but I don't think that the comments make for a strong counter argument.

[celaph]

In catching up something in my head was a little bit bothered by the way that ghug/Chaqa, particularly the latter, were controlling the conversation. It makes me nervous.

[rdrivera2005]

@rdr, the exchange between you and ghug reminds me of the game I subbed into recently where the two of you were going at each other and it ended up being TvT letting the scum get away with it. What makes you think that this time is different?

I don't know and that's why I am considering other options like Chaqa and Bona and even Kak. I feel like there is something I am missing on this game.

At this point, I townread you and Maniac and to a lesser degree Bob.

I also think the day is gone, we will end with a no-kill because either town or scum are too afraid to push against it.

[rdrivera2005]

In catching up something in my head was a little bit bothered by the way that ghug/Chaqa, particularly the latter, were controlling the conversation. It makes me nervous.

I had the same feeling. Would they be so obvious as scum?

I also fear we are just putting all our hope in the cop's hands. If he dies or doesn't have usefull info we will be in a worst position tomorrow.

[Maniac]

There probably isn’t much to say today if we’re going down the no kill route. We will have a dead body tonight we can discount and hopefully some useful cop info. Seems little point putting loads of effort into scum hunting when things can change so much.

Whilst I still think no kill is the way to go. It does make me question Chaqa’s motives. Godfather!Chaqa would absolutely suggest this if he feared he was going to be daykilled. He’d hope for a reprieve and hope to be scanned.

Ghug’s support of the plan is less concerning. He definitely wouldn’t endorse a bad for town plan under any circumstances.

I hear the concerns raised about me. I’m actually a bit relieved. Every time someone said ‘Maniac is locked on town’ early days I thought ‘stop putting a target on my back’.

No point me defending myself now as I could be dead or scanned by the time we need to decide another kill.

I suggest we all keep our thoughts to ourselves for now. We don’t want to give scum any more insight into our thought processes.

Just make sure we all post EON cases, read list etc.

[BobMcBob]

Bob, you're being all too reasonable. I might need to unvote you lol

I feel like Maniac, Kak, and RDR should all be able to read through this and come to the same conclusions you are, so hopefully we can stop with this nonsense of voting me.

yeah im really not sold on you being scum here
i dont think it works except as some kind of crazy suicide play which i do not expect
i honestly half expect someone to come along later and tear this completely to shreds and put up a good case for you but really not feeling it right now

@Bob, who do you suspect is scum in this game right now?

best guesses are ghug/bona right now
rdr is the next best option but everyone else i townread

[BobMcBob]

In catching up something in my head was a little bit bothered by the way that ghug/Chaqa, particularly the latter, were controlling the conversation. It makes me nervous.

I had the same feeling. Would they be so obvious as scum?

I also fear we are just putting all our hope in the cop's hands. If he dies or doesn't have usefull info we will be in a worst position tomorrow.

i dont think thats actually what will happen
if we kill town today we have to no kill tomorrow anyway
and if we no kill today we have a better chance of hitting scum tomorrow
we have more info regardless because someone will die which gives us less players to choose from and more info to work with
ideally we get a guilty scan but even without that im pretty sure we still benefit

[BobMcBob]

There probably isn’t much to say today if we’re going down the no kill route. We will have a dead body tonight we can discount and hopefully some useful cop info. Seems little point putting loads of effort into scum hunting when things can change so much.

Whilst I still think no kill is the way to go. It does make me question Chaqa’s motives. Godfather!Chaqa would absolutely suggest this if he feared he was going to be daykilled. He’d hope for a reprieve and hope to be scanned.

Ghug’s support of the plan is less concerning. He definitely wouldn’t endorse a bad for town plan under any circumstances.

I hear the concerns raised about me. I’m actually a bit relieved. Every time someone said ‘Maniac is locked on town’ early days I thought ‘stop putting a target on my back’.

No point me defending myself now as I could be dead or scanned by the time we need to decide another kill.

I suggest we all keep our thoughts to ourselves for now. We don’t want to give scum any more insight into our thought processes.

Just make sure we all post EON cases, read list etc.

the second half of this post is so weird
"yes thank you for scumreading me folks much appreciated"
it feels off kinda, but im not sure if it means anything
maniac is strange at the best of times

[BobMcBob]

also im gonna move to ##vote no-kill
which basically seals that as todays outcome i guess

[Kakarroto]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e23SotgestI

I'm John C. Reilly for sure

I'm ok being Will Ferrell.

'karate' - first scene down there with a sword in hand *facepalm*

[Kakarroto]

My theory is that scum wouldn't be moving their votes around a bunch.

This feels like an incredibly simplistic theory in that it ignores the differences in player behavior. For example, I suspect that someone like ghug has late vote movement far more often than the average player.

I don't think I've played as much with scum Kak as many of you all. Does he have this tendency to show great uncertainty about his actions as scum? I tend to associate it with towny behavior, but maby it's just Kak.

I don't know how much you believe me, but I want to be correct and liked. When I'm mafia, I tend to vote for my teammates and bus them, especially early on. It was that way in the game with guak, rd and chaqa, it was like this last game, it will be probably the next time when I'm mafia so too. Maybe I should change that, but I guess that is my underlying nature, trying to vote the 'bad guys'.

From a neutral perspective, if I'm mafia, with the voting on D1, I would've probably stayed on lfischl if the rest of the bunch is town. We know worcej was town, it now depends what the roles of jamie/bob are, especially bob. If I was a player and ask 'is kak maf or town?' I'd flip bob.

With the same question for the voting of D2, since worcej and Vecna are town, I'd flip celaph to see if kak would be maf or town.

Now right now we are probably not flipping someone today, so each of these have more information in that regard. If you believe my quick self-assessment, that is.

[Kakarroto]

Hrmm ... I kinda don't like the no kill movement today, I mean, clearly I see that there is an advantage to it, but it takes out the flow of the game and I'm not sure I could bear the angry Vecna tirade if we not proceed his wishes.

However, I see that the game already has come to something of a halt (I might be partly responsible for that by trying to resetting myself, I guess) so if we do this, right now might be the best time for it.

I'll also not post more thoughts of mine until shortly before EoN to not give mafia anymore information. I guess right now is also the best time to reread everything and pick up things we might've missed before. Well then, everyone, enjoy your weekend and see you EoN.

##vote no-kill

[Bonatogether]

There's no way Vecna/Chaqa are scum together. Scum Vecna doesn't assume his teammate's blow-up and subsequent removal came off as so townie that he'd call people scummy for still scumreading him without actually reading the day.

i disagree that scum vecna doesn't do that

Two questions: why don't you think that scum Vecna would do that? And more importantly, why do you think it's worth arguing about what scum Vecna would or would not do right after he was flipped as town?

It doesn't seem like you're using this opportunity to say anything about ghug or the state of the game, just that you want to be contrarian.

I don't look at flips until I come up to that point in the game.

[celaph]

##vote no-kill btw

[rdrivera2005]

##vote no-kill

[Chaqa]

If bona doesn't vote, he'll get modkilled.

[Chaqa]

Or replaced, I guess. Unsure on the sub situation

[Hamilton Brian]

Day has ended; please hold.