M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

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Vecna
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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4781 Post by Vecna » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:32 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:18 pm
snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:38 pm
1) In order for this to have happened the scum team would have to have confidence that ghug was in fact commuting, not BP or 3P, as the BP is not an auto-town clear and not as priority for day vig, and 3P is best kept alive to cause fear in town until later in the game.

The only way for this to have happened is that the item investigator N1 checked ghug and discovered it. In which case, why try to shoot the guy who can 100% save himself?

No, ghug was either watcher or napkin. I want to believe napkin, but reality says watcher.
I can think of a scenario where scum just had strong reasons to want to get rid of Ghug (and those reasons probably have to do with him so strongly scumreading Jamiet, even after we flipped kakka).

Im guessing they either failed the NK and gunned down Ghug after to get rid of him still, with potentially the 3p sending a random msg at the same time (or them just being truely weird and random, who knows)

Or they didnt try to NK ghug but had the napkins and the gun and were doing something weird.

Me talking about this is mostly just to offer a different scenario to the one where I magically ended up with the commuting item. Me doing a towny thing does not suddenly mean it wasnt towny if an alternative becomes possible. I probably overestimated how likely it truely is, but I dont think we should discount it at all.

Regardless, at this point it doesnt really matter what scenario ultimately happened. Either we kill the 3P today, or I have to clear myself, or im going up on the block tomorrow most likely. Which would be bad.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4782 Post by snowy801 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:33 pm

@bozo please outline path of failure if we vote out one of Maniac/foodcoats/Jamiet today and Hot Salsa Vecna. Assume scum did not throw all their items to Vecna earlier, or will today.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4783 Post by snowy801 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:37 pm

Vecna wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:32 pm
Either we kill the 3P today, or I have to clear myself, or im going up on the block tomorrow most likely. Which would be bad.
And your best 3P read is foodcoats? Because he arbitrarily voted TB, or is there more to it?

Do you not feel that
a) 3P would more or less assume, having been given the grace period by Macca, that TB would have cleared himself of all his 3P items and
b) not done anything so obvious, rather than expecting us to say "nobody 3P would ever do something so obvious!"?

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4784 Post by snowy801 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:39 pm

Also foodcoats, regardless of alignment, if you get voted out today I hope you learn the value of not doing what town clears and semi-clears told you explicitly not to do because you felt your judgment was better.

Even if it was (and I don't think it was, as I feel Chaqa would've given us the night time discount as long as rdrivera returned in a reasonable time frame which it did), it muddles the solving. As you can see.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4785 Post by Vecna » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:46 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:37 pm
Vecna wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:32 pm
Either we kill the 3P today, or I have to clear myself, or im going up on the block tomorrow most likely. Which would be bad.
And your best 3P read is foodcoats? Because he arbitrarily voted TB, or is there more to it?

Do you not feel that
a) 3P would more or less assume, having been given the grace period by Macca, that TB would have cleared himself of all his 3P items and
b) not done anything so obvious, rather than expecting us to say "nobody 3P would ever do something so obvious!"?
Whether it was a hail mary to try and get a bunch of items because "im not winning anyway" or just to fool us into thinking the actual 3P would never do that, I dno.

My read is mainly just based on play and meta on foodcoats. I also really do not feel town-him would just use his day hammer in the way he did and waste it just for town safety. How boring. Just feels like an intended use to get us to townread him. Theres been loads of little pings throughout the game I commented on in his play that I just do not townread. control f his name on the bot in my overview and I probably quoted and commented it extensively.

Im not saying it cannot be Maniac, because Maniacs play has also just been full of wtf's, but I still think his play is even more "would a 3P really just use his crap in such a terrible way".

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4786 Post by snowy801 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:49 pm

@rdrivera of the pool, I request your wisdom.
I am blind and lost.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4787 Post by snowy801 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:50 pm

I'd like everyone's best guesses at 3P and 2 scums. No waffles, no maybe any of these people could be it.

One 3P, 2 scum names. Please.

I already have Vecna, damo, bozo's, though feel free to repeat/change.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4788 Post by rdrivera2005 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:00 pm

damo666 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:05 pm
Neither Bozo nor Maniac have been on a lead wagon so cannot be anywhere near winning if 3p. [Maniac could of course be mafia]

Of the remaining 3p candidates

Food can have 4 max (but prob max 3)
Jamie can have 5 max (but prob max 4)
Vecna could have 4 max (but isn't mafia)

This means Jamie ought to be the dk BUT he has chicken so it would be too easy for 3p to jump on if Jamie isn't 3p.

I think ##vote food is the way to go.

IT IS IMPERATIVE NO 3p ITEM is passed to any if the above named 5 (obviously).
I would add that if Jamiet didn't pass the chicken we DK him tomorrow.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4789 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:05 pm

Vecna wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:02 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:33 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:02 am


The timing is irrelevant if you're the 3P getting on the wagon in order to obtain an item.
I think it is relevant because town failed to get the hammer on, but, fine.

The same argument then applies to anyone else if timing and reasoning is irrelevant. This is why Vecna is sus to me.
what was sus about the timing of any of my votes?
You’re not sus because of timing. I am saying timing is not relevant. I’m saying the most interesting heuristic for >randomly 3P is what % of wagons has a person been on. You’ve been on them all. Ignore content, ignore timing.Vecna has been on every wagon. I’ve been on fewer. If someone wants to point to me being on Tom’s wagon, my point is, “so was Vecna - and he was on Bona’s, also.”

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4790 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:06 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:10 pm
@Food, just scrolling over these lists that people were kind enough to make:

guac (cop x2) - rdrivera
white rice (doctor x2) - damo
pinto beans (role block x2) - Vecna
brown rice (faith healer x3) - Macca
cheese (fruit vendor) - Kgray
chicken (double vote x2) - Jamiet
corn salsa (tracker x2) - Hamilton Brian
hot salsa (hot potato x2) - snowy
lettuce (jack-of-all-trade) - Maniac
Sofritas - Bob


and :

White rice - Damo to snowy to damo
Brown Rice - Macca to Bob to Vecna
Black Beans - ?
Pinto Beans - Vecna to Bob to donee/scum
Pico - ?
Chicken - Jamie
Napkins - ?
Cheese - 3P


Did you ever claim an item?
I claimed the hammer.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Great Void Beyond the Stars

#4791 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:07 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:11 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:53 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:47 pm


Is that what you are doing?
No. I’m trying to figure out the game. I like what bozo is doing.

I just find it odd you think it’s interesting that I townread someone scumreading me. But that’s neither here nor there.
It wasn't the townreading but the reference to sheeping that I found interesting.

If I'm town, I wouldn't usually sheep someone who was scumreading me, because I know their reads are wrong. Geddit?
Well we can’t all be snowy :lol:

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Great Void Beyond the Stars

#4792 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:10 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:07 pm
Well we can’t all be snowy :lol:
Thank the Good Lord Ghug for that.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4793 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:11 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:49 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:41 pm
Hamilton Brian and myself are currently alive and have not flipped.

What are you bragging about, exactly?

Do you know something town could not possibly know?
See, this is the wrong response too. In your struggle to discredit my statements, you're forgetting to emulate the perspective of a town, reacting to false accusations. Town would never say "you're acting like you know too much Snowy"

Also I'm bragging for the future. Putting my money where my mouth is and all that, so nobody can be like "but snowy you just guessed on a lot of people and got lucky guuuh"
Yeah Jamie has now made several statements that suggest he is not able to keep up with the data town has vs the data scum has.

I’ll vote ##VOTE Jamie

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4794 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:14 pm

damo666 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:10 pm
snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:01 pm
damo666 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:55 pm
@Vecna please get off food

@snowy I want to know what you think of the plan

All players are welcome to self vote
Plan's okay, from a pure probabilistic point of view. I think it doesn't account for reads at all, which is somewhat silly on D5.

My personal proposition is that we are in fact unlikely to be in a circumstance where literally the scum team threw the chicken and Pico at Vecna, and they're one correct guess of winning tonight.

Which means we have more time to figure out 3P without missing, and therefore the usage (or lack thereof) of Hot Salsa will much better inform our decision tomorrow.

I do not believe foodcoats nor Vecna to be 3P or mafia.

This all being said, I don't want to "commit" to a plan quite so early, as it limits player initiative and dulls the information we can gain from their arguments and proposals.
If you think neither Vecna nor Food are scum of any kind then who is third man with Maniac and Jamie?

If Bozo is 3p he is nowhere near winning so not an issue. Who else? Brian? If scum is Maniac Brian then Jamie prob 3p. I don't like killing Jamie today jic Vecna is 3p.
Kgray can be scum.

Say it with me.

Kgray can be scum.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4795 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:14 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:11 pm
snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:49 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 1:41 pm
Hamilton Brian and myself are currently alive and have not flipped.

What are you bragging about, exactly?

Do you know something town could not possibly know?
See, this is the wrong response too. In your struggle to discredit my statements, you're forgetting to emulate the perspective of a town, reacting to false accusations. Town would never say "you're acting like you know too much Snowy"

Also I'm bragging for the future. Putting my money where my mouth is and all that, so nobody can be like "but snowy you just guessed on a lot of people and got lucky guuuh"
Yeah Jamie has now made several statements that suggest he is not able to keep up with the data town has vs the data scum has.

I’ll vote ##VOTE Jamie
What data has Snowy provided that proves I'm scum?

He literally admitted that any mechanical arguments he used against me were "made up".

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4796 Post by Hamilton Brian » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:15 pm

Post

Just thinking out loud here; it’s to mafias endgame benefit to get the town miss killed because then they can vote third-party during the day. Because in that upstairs chances of winning.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4797 Post by snowy801 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:16 pm

I miss being able to +1 whatever I felt like.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4798 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:17 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:39 pm
Also foodcoats, regardless of alignment, if you get voted out today I hope you learn the value of not doing what town clears and semi-clears told you explicitly not to do because you felt your judgment was better.

Even if it was (and I don't think it was, as I feel Chaqa would've given us the night time discount as long as rdrivera returned in a reasonable time frame which it did), it muddles the solving. As you can see.
It would be WIFOM. You just pointed out a different scenario 3P might have considered. So it’s not relevant if you’re thinking above 1st level.

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4799 Post by foodcoats » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:50 pm
I'd like everyone's best guesses at 3P and 2 scums. No waffles, no maybe any of these people could be it.

One 3P, 2 scum names. Please.

I already have Vecna, damo, bozo's, though feel free to repeat/change.
Hmmm

Vecna 3P

Jamie and… kgray scum

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Re: M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

#4800 Post by Hamilton Brian » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:18 pm

I am also wondering if mafia have a very slim idea of who the 3P might be. If they have made two kills on town, and I’ve gotten blocked the other two nights, then they likely have no idea.

In which case the third party just keeps doing what they’ve been doing by scanning each day.

Sorry, I know that is all probably obvious, but I need to say it out loud and read it to just get around it.

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