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snowy801 wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:06 pm

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

What makes you base that ghug is Jester? His claim? Or is there more you read into his comments?

He said he's Jester.

town!ghug would know that's a bad claim to make.

mafia!ghug might make that claim in the hope we don't kill him.

jester!ghug would make that claim.

So there's little likelihood he's town.

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:28 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:06 pm

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

Can you expand why you think he's the jester?

He said he is

Bozo, I feel like your vote on snowy is almost testing for a reaction?

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:40 pm

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:28 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:06 pm

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

Can you expand why you think he's the jester?

He said he is

And you’re willing to take him at his word?

If that’s the case, he’s the last one we should wagon right now, right?

Hamilton Brian wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:44 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:40 pm

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:28 pm

Can you expand why you think he's the jester?

He said he is

And you’re willing to take him at his word?

If that’s the case, he’s the last one we should wagon right now, right?

See above

The math is pretty easy to work out as well

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:40 pm

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 pm

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:06 pm

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

What makes you base that ghug is Jester? His claim? Or is there more you read into his comments?

He said he's Jester.

town!ghug would know that's a bad claim to make.

mafia!ghug might make that claim in the hope we don't kill him.

jester!ghug would make that claim.

So there's little likelihood he's town.

Perhaps there is merit to this train of thought - but if I may counter,
You seem to be basing the day 1 vote on the ideal that taking out the most likely Jester candidate is the best move, for aforementioned reason.

If I were to instead argue that by the arguments and the implications carried within (that ghug would know that people would think this as scum and be less likely to claim it, thus actually lowering his chance of actually being scum and by your axiom that town ghug wouldn't make this claim make him actually jester {I think that's your train of thought - correct me if I'm wrong})

That since it doesn't particularly matter whether we get jester or not today, since as Vecna previously rightly observed that our safety net of misvotes are slimmer than usual and jester would naturally desire the game to go on longer such that he maintains a chance of victory before mafia outright wins, would it not be better to actually avoid the ghug vote on hopes of better hitting scum?

I don't particularly subscribe to your underlying beliefs as a note, I'm just curious on your push to vote out jester today.

Yes, Chaqa; posting delays.

Do we assume ghug is, and then vote around them to hope for a mafia day kill?

It prevents a runaway which gives us no info.

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:14 am

Oh hey people are still up in degen hours. Life is hard and then you die, kids.

bozotheclown wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 5:40 am

Your vote may have been a joke, but I would be OK with DKing snowy D1 for claiming VT the way he did. It is possible it was just WIFOM for the mafia, but it seems like something scum might say.

I just want to not be night killed. I am not and never will be scared of a misvote, as it just doesn't happen to me. But hey - most of those days I had two days to dispel my wagons so who knows.

So that's my motive, but what's yours? Why would you say someone hard claiming VT is more scum indicative? Walk me through the mind of a mafia member who claims VT.

I don't think claiming VT is a good idea as town, as it helps the mafia narrow down the PRs. A mafia might claim VT to avoid suspicion for surviving the NKs.

Sorry, I ran through the math on my own and didn't explain it in the thread, but I'll go back over it now.

Game starts at 8-3-1 spread on day 1.
Mafia has no incentive to nightkill the jester.

We have two lines:
1. Leave the jester alive
2. Kill the jester today

If we follow Line 1, assuming miskills and no doc saves:
On day 2, we are down to 6-3-1.
On day 3, we are down to 4-3-1.

At this point, the jester WANTS to get killed, and the mafia don't care if the Jester does, so it's essentially 4-4 since mafia and jester's interests are aligned, although they can't communicate it as such. Essentially, by keeping the Jester alive, Day 3 is a really good chance of town autoloss.

This does assume Jester stays alive somehow and can figure out a way to make this happen, but I think that's reasonably possible.

Line 2:
If we kill the Jester today, then:
On day 2, we are down to 7-3
On day 3, we are down to 5-3

Day 3 is now not nearly autoloss. We could either vote to try to make it 4-2 on day 4, or we could vote no kill to be at 4-3 on day 4.

Essentially, killing the Jester now is great for town.

The Jester should just claim and let us flip them, they can win and we can focus on mafia.

foodcoats wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:07 pm

BobMcBob wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:55 am

also for the very little its worth, i doubt snowy is jester

What makes you doubt this?

that one post he made where he was like whats the point of jester
thats basically it

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:26 am

bozotheclown wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:38 pm

foodcoats wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:35 pm

Interesting. I don’t think that’s necessarily correct, but it certainly could be.

Regarding your theory that darg and ghug are bussing snowy, is there anything in the way they or snowy have acted in particular that makes you think this? Or is it just a gut feeling?

My theory is based on their collective inclination to bus early as scum (including snowy, who is voting for dargorygel).

This definitely applied to Ghug in the past. Do you think he'd continue doing this though with how often he's been called out for it?

I went over this with ghug already, it appears ghug has been less likely to bus D1 as scum in more recent games.

chaqa your plan would be great if jester was allowed to claim in the rules
also since when do you do maths?

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:30 am

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:54 pm

foodcoats wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:52 pm

Well, of course: I don’t want to vote for the Jester. And I brought up this conversation because you suggested darg might be the third party. But perhaps that was… in… jest?

Generally I don't worry overmuch about accidentally jestering day 1. Good on them if they did, but I think pure min/max it's better to try to properly vote out scum than carefully avoid type II errors, and ending up voting out town.

Killing jester day1 might actually be not such a terrible side effect. Eliminate that pesky wifom "oh he's not actually scum, he just wanna die" train of logic thats undoubtedly to follow. And give the pr's gamesolve time.

I agree we should not worry about the jester. Although, it would be better for town if the mafia wasted a NK on him.

I’m leaning with Chaqa on this based on that explanation.

BobMcBob wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:59 pm

chaqa your plan would be great if jester was allowed to claim in the rules
also since when do you do maths?

Huh?

bozotheclown wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:59 pm

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:30 am

snowy801 wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:54 pm

Generally I don't worry overmuch about accidentally jestering day 1. Good on them if they did, but I think pure min/max it's better to try to properly vote out scum than carefully avoid type II errors, and ending up voting out town.

Killing jester day1 might actually be not such a terrible side effect. Eliminate that pesky wifom "oh he's not actually scum, he just wanna die" train of logic thats undoubtedly to follow. And give the pr's gamesolve time.

I agree we should not worry about the jester. Although, it would be better for town if the mafia wasted a NK on him.

They’re more likely to hit one of us though, right? I think I’d like going into N1 as 8-3 as opposed to 7-3-1?

i want to propose a revolutionary new idea
what if we tried to catch scum today?
instead of trying specifically to catch the jester, we try to catch scum, and if we happen to hit the jester thats just a bonus...ish...kinda

BobMcBob wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:02 pm

i want to propose a revolutionary new idea
what if we tried to catch scum today?
instead of trying specifically to catch the jester, we try to catch scum, and if we happen to hit the jester thats just a bonus...ish...kinda

Bob scum.

Any town would see the math of this situation and agree that getting the Jester out of the way is purely positive to town.

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:32 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:39 am

Johnny Big Horse wrote: ↑

Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:31 pm

Well, to use the logic I am used to seeing here....

University of Wisconsin has a sports team, whose mascot is a badger, and the Mongolian word for badger rhymes with mafioso. If I was mafia, I would never refer to Wisconsin, as it is an obvious giveaway to the Mongolian speakers, and therefore I must be town.

Can't argue with that, bozo.

Just wait until he uncovers the secret message in that post by throwing it through exactly 4 loops of google translate

I did look up the Mongolian translation for badger, and it does end in an "o" sound.

If you take the original message and run it through a Mongolian translation back and forth until it stabilizes, the result is "The University of Wisconsin has a sports team with badgers, and the mafia uses badger associations in Mongolian. If I were a mafia, I would never go to Wisconsin, because it is a gift for Mongolian speakers, so I have to be a city."

Vecna wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:39 am

bozotheclown wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:18 am

ghug wrote: ↑

Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:41 am

I gave an inclination to bus early as scum?

Historically speaking. I remember someone saying it was a good idea to vote for whoever you were voting for D1, because as town you are good at picking up on scum D1, and if you are scum, you are probably bussing. Or did you say that about yourself?

Since when dont you have encyclopedic knowledge about these specifics?

Do you remember someone saying this, and whether it was about ghug? I couldn't find the original quote. If it wasn't about ghug, it might have been about you.