Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[dargorygel]

Not sure if someone has already made this point, but hitting jester today protects or PRs.

I don't understand why the Jester just doesn't claim. The lack of a claim increases the suspicion ghug actually is the Jester who is bit disappointed at drawing the role because you don't get to play much. I'm right aren't I ghug?

Could be jester! ghug... Or someone who has missed the flow.

[snowy801]

Friends, I will not lie, I have no idea about this game.

I would like to defend myself by saying I have been literally working 90 hours this past week and am running on about 3 hours of sleep for the past 48 hours, and am still working now.

My helpful comment of the day thus is to remind everyone that the day ends at 5 EST (2 hours from now), not 6 as we are accustomed to.

[Chaqa]

Friends, I will not lie, I have no idea about this game.

I would like to defend myself by saying I have been literally working 90 hours this past week and am running on about 3 hours of sleep for the past 48 hours, and am still working now.

My helpful comment of the day thus is to remind everyone that the day ends at 5 EST (2 hours from now), not 6 as we are accustomed to.

Oh shit, the phase ends today?

That's exciting.

[ghug]

Sorry, I ran through the math on my own and didn't explain it in the thread, but I'll go back over it now.

Game starts at 8-3-1 spread on day 1.
Mafia has no incentive to nightkill the jester.

We have two lines:
1. Leave the jester alive
2. Kill the jester today

If we follow Line 1, assuming miskills and no doc saves:
On day 2, we are down to 6-3-1.
On day 3, we are down to 4-3-1.

At this point, the jester WANTS to get killed, and the mafia don't care if the Jester does, so it's essentially 4-4 since mafia and jester's interests are aligned, although they can't communicate it as such. Essentially, by keeping the Jester alive, Day 3 is a really good chance of town autoloss.

This does assume Jester stays alive somehow and can figure out a way to make this happen, but I think that's reasonably possible.

Line 2:
If we kill the Jester today, then:
On day 2, we are down to 7-3
On day 3, we are down to 5-3

Day 3 is now not nearly autoloss. We could either vote to try to make it 4-2 on day 4, or we could vote no kill to be at 4-3 on day 4.

Essentially, killing the Jester now is great for town.

The Jester should just claim and let us flip them, they can win and we can focus on mafia.

You're ignoring that the first scenario gives town two chances to kill scum before getting to day 3, whereas the second scenario only gives one, so they amount to roughly the same thing.

Except the first scenario allows Jester to fuck things up for town later on, which you should be aware of. +10 scum points

I'm not ignoring that. If we kill jester D1, we have two chances to kill scum, and lose on D4 if we fail both times. If we kill for scum D1, we have two chances to kill scum, and lose on D3 if we fail both times, unless one of our attempts to kill scum or one of scum's NKs happens to hit the jester. That makes the latter option better.

[rdrivera2005]

With respect to my vote on rdr, what does everyone of policy killing him or someone else for lurking?

We know that in the last three games, at least one scum lurked ('68 emc, '67 Vecna [and by lurked I mean did the parrot thing], '66 Macca). I don't think it would be crazy to assume that one of rdr, JBH, or darg is scum.

I am in favour of policy killing lurkers, but I think we have different concepts about lurking. I think lurking is what Emc did last game and not what me or Dargo are doing this game. If you want to policy kill low-posters, fine, go ahead.

This said, I don't get scummy vibes from either Bob or Snowy, so I will ##vote Ghug

This smacks of saving Bob to me.

Rdr and Bob my leading scuspects.

Yes, because I always defend my scum partners? Show me a game where I did this as scum....

[ghug]

I'll try to be on closer to did... And will switch to the jester if they claim. I'm sad it's not ghug. Or Ghug.

This reduces to "I'm sad it's".

[ghug]

Friends, I will not lie, I have no idea about this game.

I would like to defend myself by saying I have been literally working 90 hours this past week and am running on about 3 hours of sleep for the past 48 hours, and am still working now.

My helpful comment of the day thus is to remind everyone that the day ends at 5 EST (2 hours from now), not 6 as we are accustomed to.

Oh Snowy's excuses are scum indicative. Interesting

[Chaqa]

You're ignoring that the first scenario gives town two chances to kill scum before getting to day 3, whereas the second scenario only gives one, so they amount to roughly the same thing.

Except the first scenario allows Jester to fuck things up for town later on, which you should be aware of. +10 scum points

I'm not ignoring that. If we kill jester D1, we have two chances to kill scum, and lose on D4 if we fail both times. If we kill for scum D1, we have two chances to kill scum, and lose on D3 if we fail both times, unless one of our attempts to kill scum or one of scum's NKs happens to hit the jester. That makes the latter option better.

With worst case assumptions:

Scenario A: Ignore Jester Day 1:
Day 1: 8-3-1 (first shot at scum)
Day 2: 6-3-1 (second shot at scum)
Day 3: 4-3-1 (at this point, town will likely lose as town is less than a majority)

Scenario B: Kill Jester Day 1:
Day 1: 8-3-1 (take out Jester)
Day 2: 7-3 (first shot at scum)
Day 3: 5-3 (second shot at scum, but if we miss, we lose)

I do see how there is an argument to be made either way, but regardless, Day 3 is the break point. By eliminating the Jester, we have all interests within our control, let the PRs have a better idea on targeting, and overall have less moving parts to screw us up.

[Chaqa]

The worst thing for town would be to get into a situation where we have a clear scan claimant and we don't know if they're town or Jester on a day when it really would matter.

[snowy801]

I am however coming to conclude that it is simply unconscionable not to vote out ghug today.

I understood the first jester claim - he framed it as a joke, a joke I set up, and long ago I also made many such similar comments. Just in good fun, you see.

But then town had a very lengthy discussion on the merits of autovoting jester, and he came in and doubled down on the claim. Also understandable - he is in fact the jester, and just wants to fulfill his wincondition. Ez pz

But then he says... he doesn't want to be voted out? Later retracts his claim and says he hates the concept of hard claiming, and also that he faked his 2nd jester claim because he didn't want to get voted?

Call me simple, but town doesn't fake a role to avoid being voted out. You just bite the bullet while doing your best to organically shift the vote.

I mean yes, a PR might fake such a role, but let's be real here - if by voting out ghug we out PR he brought it upon himself.

...I think?

Also I don't know, Bob gives me towny vibes. But take all that I say with a grain of salt I am straight up delirous right now.

I think it I were to shoot for scum here it'd be darg or bozo? But again, I am a proponent for ghug.

[ghug]

I am however coming to conclude that it is simply unconscionable not to vote out ghug today.

I understood the first jester claim - he framed it as a joke, a joke I set up, and long ago I also made many such similar comments. Just in good fun, you see.

But then town had a very lengthy discussion on the merits of autovoting jester, and he came in and doubled down on the claim. Also understandable - he is in fact the jester, and just wants to fulfill his wincondition. Ez pz

But then he says... he doesn't want to be voted out? Later retracts his claim and says he hates the concept of hard claiming, and also that he faked his 2nd jester claim because he didn't want to get voted?

Call me simple, but town doesn't fake a role to avoid being voted out. You just bite the bullet while doing your best to organically shift the vote.

I mean yes, a PR might fake such a role, but let's be real here - if by voting out ghug we out PR he brought it upon himself.

...I think?

Also I don't know, Bob gives me towny vibes. But take all that I say with a grain of salt I am straight up delirous right now.

I think it I were to shoot for scum here it'd be darg or bozo? But again, I am a proponent for ghug.

You're missing the part where I think killing the jester D1 is the wrong move and I only felt the need to clarify that I'm not claiming once it started to become clear that that opinion wasn't the popular one.

[ghug]

The worst thing for town would be to get into a situation where we have a clear scan claimant and we don't know if they're town or Jester on a day when it really would matter.

And yeah, I'm not surprised you feel this way. You tend to look at these things as pretty black and white. Not killing the jester here is the upside play, though, for what I see as pretty limited downside, and killing me is just the bad play, since I'm neither jester nor mafia.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Hello fine town people and some evil bastards.

Tried to catch up last night but fall asleep at page 4 ( one of the side effects of waking up at 06:30 to drive daughter to school). Will catch up now.

I don't think rdr ever caught up. We should help him.

##VOTE rdrivera

With respect to my vote on rdr, what does everyone of policy killing him or someone else for lurking?

We know that in the last three games, at least one scum lurked ('68 emc, '67 Vecna [and by lurked I mean did the parrot thing], '66 Macca). I don't think it would be crazy to assume that one of rdr, JBH, or darg is scum.

Even though I am on this list, I agree wholeheartedly with this. I only played one game, and 2 of the 3 mafia in that game were pretty quiet.

[Chaqa]

The worst thing for town would be to get into a situation where we have a clear scan claimant and we don't know if they're town or Jester on a day when it really would matter.

And yeah, I'm not surprised you feel this way. You tend to look at these things as pretty black and white. Not killing the jester here is the upside play, though, for what I see as pretty limited downside, and killing me is just the bad play, since I'm neither jester nor mafia.

Well, the real Jester *should* claim regardless, so if you're not Jester it will sort itself out. Barring a Jester claim I'll probably vote Bob at this point.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Okay, here's where I'm at based on reads alone, which were all explained in the string of quote-replied I just got finished writing up:

Town
Snowy
Vecna
Hamilton

Scum
Bob
ghug

Null
Bozo (lean town)
Damo (lean town)
Dargo
Food
Johnny
Rivera

Earlier I posted this:

I believe there to be at least 2 scum in the group:

Johnny
Hamilton
Vecna
Dargo

I will explain why later in the day phase.

This was based off two things:
1. A maxim for catching scum I've been developing, which I am not going to share (I did tell Eden about it awhile ago, so I'm sure he'll blab at some point in a future game, but I can use it for this one at least).
2. A gut read on Dargo at the time (separate from the maxim), which I no longer maintain

Upon updating for the current situation, I think I will remove Hamilton and Vecna from my likely scum list based on the maxim, and add Food and Rivera* and which brings me down to:

Bob
Ghug
Rivera
---------------
Johnny
Food

I believe there is a very high likelihood of finding scum in that group.

*Rivera was part of the maxim as well, though I left him out before because he hadn't posted as much yet and I was waiting to see what he would do.

Fine reasoning Chaqa, but ... this is day one. Day one is a waste of time to really contribute much. I think this maxim would work better on any other day but Day 1. I am not saying much because I know that I have nothing to say. Some or most of you also have nothing of value to say today either, but that doesn't stop you from writing. At least I try not to pollute the forum with meaningless words.

Remove me from your list.

[snowy801]

Fine reasoning Chaqa, but ... this is day one. Day one is a waste of time to really contribute much. I think this maxim would work better on any other day but Day 1. I am not saying much because I know that I have nothing to say. Some or most of you also have nothing of value to say today either, but that doesn't stop you from writing. At least I try not to pollute the forum with meaningless words.

Remove me from your list.

By your reasoning, nobody would ever have any reason to write anything except to claim, and to vote based on flips/PR knowledge.

The entire game of mafia would be reduced to a few dozen votes and info claims.

Try again.

[foodcoats]

I am however coming to conclude that it is simply unconscionable not to vote out ghug today.

I understood the first jester claim - he framed it as a joke, a joke I set up, and long ago I also made many such similar comments. Just in good fun, you see.

But then town had a very lengthy discussion on the merits of autovoting jester, and he came in and doubled down on the claim. Also understandable - he is in fact the jester, and just wants to fulfill his wincondition. Ez pz

But then he says... he doesn't want to be voted out? Later retracts his claim and says he hates the concept of hard claiming, and also that he faked his 2nd jester claim because he didn't want to get voted?

Call me simple, but town doesn't fake a role to avoid being voted out. You just bite the bullet while doing your best to organically shift the vote.

I mean yes, a PR might fake such a role, but let's be real here - if by voting out ghug we out PR he brought it upon himself.

...I think?

Also I don't know, Bob gives me towny vibes. But take all that I say with a grain of salt I am straight up delirous right now.

I think it I were to shoot for scum here it'd be darg or bozo? But again, I am a proponent for ghug.

This is a very good analysis of the ghug problem. I think you may have convinced me.

##VOTE ghug

[Johnny Big Horse]

##Vote Hamilton Brian

Why? Well, I am still the village idiot. Working on no clues here.

BUT.. perhaps one. I think all this talk about talk this jester that is diversion for at least one mafioso. Why? Well, as mafia, you cannot lurk, or you shouldn't.

So you got to talk about someting. Several folks talked about jester, most of which are probably town. I picked one at random.

Sorry Hamilton. You won't get voted out anyway.

[foodcoats]

Although I really liked my rdr vote, and rdr basically reappeared to say he's not lurking and vote for ghug for no reason... hmm...

[snowy801]

This is a very good analysis of the ghug problem. I think you may have convinced me.

##VOTE ghug

That's funny, because I haven't even convinced myself.

##vote dargorygel