Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:50 pm
##VOTE rd
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3512
So, if you are just a clueless newbie, why the experienced scumteam decided to kill you N2 instead of any of the other experienced players that are alive, including one that didn't have a rose for sure (Jamiet)? You fake claiming a shot is the best way to get pressure off you and give a cover for the scum Chaqa shot.Johnny Big Horse wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:23 amI don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.
The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.
I don't know why I was shot. Nor am I convinced Scum did it. I hope when the game is over, the Mafia can explain this.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:38 amSo, if you are just a clueless newbie, why the experienced scumteam decided to kill you N2 instead of any of the other experienced players that are alive, including one that didn't have a rose for sure (Jamiet)? You fake claiming a shot is the best way to get pressure off you and give a cover for the scum Chaqa shot.Johnny Big Horse wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:23 amI don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.
The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.
The fact no other town can see this is just making me crazy. No one was able to give a reason to why scum shoot you but they still think you are town.
So? Which pair would allow Chaqa to kill townJBH at that stage? EMC and rdr? EMC and worcej?
The second point here would indicate either JBH is town or ghug is his scum partnerghug wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 11:45 pmA couple of thoughts on the voting:
- Chaqa didn't vote for rdr today until I pressed him on it, despite the fact that he supposedly scumread him for days and it was the leading counterwagon to his own kill.
- The JBH move to celaph feels like he wasn't trying to protect Chaqa. If they were scum together, Horsey would have known Chaqa was willing to flip to rdr and stayed on that wagon with me. Obviously if rdr is scum too this makes more sense, but it seems likely that mafia settled on Chaqa dying before today, so JBH as a partner putting himself out there to half-heartedly doesn't make a lot of sense anyway.
- There was no last minute attempt by scum to shift the vote. I think this is probably just risk aversion/people not being here, but it is worth keeping in mind. A damo emc pairing, for examine, could plausibly have gone for it.
Given the above post surely any pairing with g or w would kill the other with gw killing J. I therefore assume g and w are town.damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 26, 2021 9:38 amI'm fairly confident worcej is town so for me it's 2 from
braincel
EMC
Ghug
Rdr
Braincel - brain being a scumgun could explain his early rantings and he would be fair game for Chaqa's plan, celaph has been very quiet, possibly finding it difficult to have inherited the role and/or struggle to find something useful to say - strong possibility of guilt
EMC - usual low input play NAI. A likely candidate to submit to Chaqa shenanigans. False reaction to D4 reveal? - medium possibilty of guilt
Ghug - mainly townreading him but then I usually do. Seemed reluctant to vote Chaqa but late late move seems much more towny than scum. Slight possibilty he's budding me. Low possibility of guilt
Rdr - looks like him and Chaqa could have been bussing each other. Hard to read as per usual. Medium possibilty of guilt.
If I go with my gut feel that ghug is town (and I can't see ghug endorsing a n2 JBH hit) we are left with 3 possibilities
Braincel EMC
Braincel rdr
EMC rdr
I think EMC rdr is doubtful due to day 2 voting.
Therefore I think you should vote celaph tomorrow. I am reluctant to guess his partner.
If I'm right about braincel I expect day 6 will be
EMC ghug JBH rdr
In this case Johnny follow ghug which will no doubt vote rdr.
This way if EMC is the guilty party with braincel it will be ghug's fault, not mine. Lol.
I can't see rdr posting this if he were partner with J so eliminate JRrdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 26, 2021 9:26 amIf scum use a gun N3 it will be 100% sure one of Chaqa or JBH was lying and we will flip one of them. If it's Chaqa we will also learn JBH is scum. So the right move here is hold the shot.
So, don't clear JBH over this.
I think you make too many assumptions, like Ghug or Worcej won't kill Celaph (they will, Ghug have a high respect for Celaph town play) or that I can't be scum with emc because of voting (that's a buss/distancing that would make sense, not the Chaqa push at EOD like Ghug tried to force that I was bussing out of the blue).damo666 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 11:22 amDay 2 voting makes ER problematic.
Conclusion
The remaining scum pair are
Johnny and EMC
These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.
They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.
@rdr @ghug @worcej
If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.
Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.celaph wrote: ↑Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:33 pmI think Chaqa is scum, one of ghug/rdr is scum (leaning ghug atm), and I'm not sure who the third is. ##vote Chaqa
I don't think that there is an open and shut case on him, but I have a hard time building a scumteam assuming town Chaqa. Removing Damo, JBH, Chaqa, and myself rdr, ghug, worcej, and emc are left. I liked damo's of worcej/emc likely not being scum together and while I can see that an rdr, ghug, worcej/emc team is possible, it wouldn't be my top bet. For one, I think ghug would have used his comment about rdr bussing to move to Chaqa's wagon.