M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[xorxes]

If JBH is scum and Chaqa we have probably already lost so I'm simply going to ignore that possibilty.

I think it's unlikely mainly because the only way I can make sense of JBH fake claiming is if he was covering for Chaqa, since they needed another gunshot to have happened.

scum!Chaqa-scum!JBH my working hypothesis
town!Chaqa-town!JBH second most likely
scum!Chaqa-town!JBH they are out of guns
town!Chaqa-scum!JBH worst case scenario but very unlikely.

I think it is either

A 3 from rdr worcej EMC ghug, of these I think EMC the last likely

Or

B JBH Chaqa plus one of rdr worcej ghug emc

In both cases there is 1 scum gun left and I expect Xorxes to die plus

Case A probably Chaqa rather than JBH if they want 2 sure deaths else they might attempt to kill me or braincel

Case B an attempt on me or braincel

I think town's chances are 20% or less.

I'm mostly in agreement. There's one thing I don't agree with, but I will say it later in my EON post.

[rdrivera2005]

If JBH is scum and Chaqa we have probably already lost so I'm simply going to ignore that possibilty.

I think it's unlikely mainly because the only way I can make sense of JBH fake claiming is if he was covering for Chaqa, since they needed another gunshot to have happened.

scum!Chaqa-scum!JBH my working hypothesis
town!Chaqa-town!JBH second most likely
scum!Chaqa-town!JBH they are out of guns
town!Chaqa-scum!JBH worst case scenario but very unlikely.

I think it is either

A 3 from rdr worcej EMC ghug, of these I think EMC the last likely

Or

B JBH Chaqa plus one of rdr worcej ghug emc

In both cases there is 1 scum gun left and I expect Xorxes to die plus

Case A probably Chaqa rather than JBH if they want 2 sure deaths else they might attempt to kill me or braincel

Case B an attempt on me or braincel

I think town's chances are 20% or less.

I'm mostly in agreement. There's one thing I don't agree with, but I will say it later in my EON post.

I think you are on point but I am not so sure JBH is scum. I was townreading him more but the fact he didn't back up his words with a vote on Chaqa made me less confident, but it's still an incredible act if he is scum.

I really thought the Chaqa wagon might work. HB was starting to look a lot more townie and If JBH and Ghug or emc joined Chaqa wagon it will be a 4 votes wagon and a very possible one.

[damo666]

A single shot against a non-Chaqa target tonight would imply

either

Chaqa is scum

or

Scum withheld factional kill [or didn't fire n3 gun - same thing in essence]

[Chaqa]

What bothered me when I was skimming was that you unvoted JBH and spent most of the day on unvote instead of at least voting for one of rivera/worcej/HB who were your only and constant scumreads for the day. If you thought voting for JBH was a bad idea, why not at least park your vote on one of your scumreads for a little pressure?

I don't really believe in pressure votes. I'm not like ghug or brain, I just plain don't jump my vote around a lot.

Any vote before the last hour or two is not really a vote, IMO. It's why I don't ever really get worried about pressure on me.

A cursory look at some of your past games shows you do often move your vote around. But in any case, if you thought your vote was meaningless, why unvote then?

Depends on which game. I just did a look and found a few such as M57 where I only ever cast one vote per game.

[Johnny Big Horse]

His vote on HB is the most scummy thing in this game. There is no way town Chaqa approach the game this way. Also, from his POV voting JBH makes a lot more sense as he knew the game could end if JBH is scum.

And Ghug is also scum for the way he handle it. The third one is harder. If it's JBH the game is probably over barring a N3 rose. If it's now then we still have a chance.

For the game to be over Chaqa has to be town though, so if you're sure about Chaqa being scum you shouldn't worry.

I was talking about how Chaqa should view the game. If he is town he should be worried that JBH is scum and the game could end but he just didn't care much.

But you are right, if Chaqa is scum the game won't end tonight.

Also, there is no way I can be 100% sure about Chaqa. If he is town and JBH is scum we deserve to lose.

No, on the contrary, if Chaqa is mafia and JBH is town, you deserve to lose. JBH, me, has told you this for like 5 days now, and you wouldn't listen.

[worcej]

##GM-Note

Xorxes has replaced Jamiet99uk

Oh snap, I was wondering where xorxes ran off to!

[Johnny Big Horse]

Also I became confident when I saw that these guys who have been playing for 20 to 40 games didn't have a clue. That they applied reasonable logic to silly premises and ended up with silly conclusions.

You said that it has been explained to me that Jamie and I must both be town or mafia, but I am sorry, I didn't understand, and don't want to. That takes more brain power than I have at the moment.

This I don't buy so much. Why don't you want to understand? Don't you want to win?

Jamie was shot night 1. There can't be any doubt about that, At least two shots were fired and snowy was shot only once. The only way Jamie could have been lying was if some other townie is hiding having been shot, which is absurd.

Chaqa knew Jamie had been shot. That can only be if he is town and shot him himself, or if he is scum.

Someone shot Eden or snowy with a gun N2. That had to be a scum shot, if it was town they would have told us.

So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, scum used two items N1 and one item N2. That's three items. But you claim you were shot. How? There were no more guns in the hands of Mafia. So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, you have to be lying about having been shot, and therefore scum as well.

You seem like a smart person even if you haven't played before, and you seem invested enough in the game to want to solve it, so your refusal to follow that not too complicated argument seems fake.

You explained it very simply. I appreciate that. Now I understand your reasoning.

Suppose Jamie and Chaqa were both mafia. Mafia gets one voted shot a night, and however many shots based on however many guns they have.

Suppose they have 3 guns.

Night 1: Jamie shot, Snowy shot. One gun used, and one voted shot.
Night 2: Eden shot, Snowy shot, Johnny shot. Two guns used and one voted shot... that is three guns used.

Tell me where I screwed this up. I am sure I did.

[worcej]

From what I was reading, damo seems the towniest out of everyone, really putting in the effort.

I think emc is town just because the little he has said seemed always spot on.

I wasn't sure about rivera until he said what he said about people not voting for Chaqa, since Chaqa has seemed the scummiest out of everyone to me.

Not completely sure about JBH, either extremely clueless newbie, or crafty newbie scum. Number of shots tonight should be informative.

worcej hard to read because so absent, but I think he can read damo, and he is not reading him genuinely from my pov.

ghug opaque as usual, could go either way. Could replace JBH depending on what happens tonight.

Did I forget anyone?

What is townie of damo to you? He is pegging my scum-dar yet you think my read isn't genuine. His push on JBH right out of the gate immediately made me think he is pushing for the sake of pushing.

Only one you missed is celaph, who is BB, any take on them?

[Johnny Big Horse]

If JBH is scum and Chaqa we have probably already lost so I'm simply going to ignore that possibilty.

I think it's unlikely mainly because the only way I can make sense of JBH fake claiming is if he was covering for Chaqa, since they needed another gunshot to have happened.

scum!Chaqa-scum!JBH my working hypothesis
town!Chaqa-town!JBH second most likely
scum!Chaqa-town!JBH they are out of guns
town!Chaqa-scum!JBH worst case scenario but very unlikely.

I think it is either

A 3 from rdr worcej EMC ghug, of these I think EMC the last likely

Or

B JBH Chaqa plus one of rdr worcej ghug emc

In both cases there is 1 scum gun left and I expect Xorxes to die plus

Case A probably Chaqa rather than JBH if they want 2 sure deaths else they might attempt to kill me or braincel

Case B an attempt on me or braincel

I think town's chances are 20% or less.

I'm mostly in agreement. There's one thing I don't agree with, but I will say it later in my EON post.

I think you are on point but I am not so sure JBH is scum. I was townreading him more but the fact he didn't back up his words with a vote on Chaqa made me less confident, but it's still an incredible act if he is scum.

I really thought the Chaqa wagon might work. HB was starting to look a lot more townie and If JBH and Ghug or emc joined Chaqa wagon it will be a 4 votes wagon and a very possible one.

I didn't care who I voted for: Chaqa, Jaime or Damo. All the same to me. I wanted Jaime to remain as I enjoyed his venom. There were more Damo votes than Chaqa votes, why would I switch to Chaqa?

[worcej]

I think town!Chaqa with a gun would have been much more invested in the game, like that game when he was neighborizer. He enjoys having power as town.

Also, why weren't more people on board with flipping JBH? Even if he is town, it wasn't a bad flip, as in that case it deprives scum of a sure kill tonight.

I credited Chaqa's lack of interest due to his apparent decision to leave our community after M69.

[worcej]

I think town!Chaqa with a gun would have been much more invested in the game, like that game when he was neighborizer. He enjoys having power as town.

Also, why weren't more people on board with flipping JBH? Even if he is town, it wasn't a bad flip, as in that case it deprives scum of a sure kill tonight.

TBH I was planning to be more involved, but literally the day the game started, my girlfriend's parents told her they're selling the house she rents, so I'm just not super invested or active at the moment since we're in crisis mode.

Looks like I made an ass out of myself.

[damo666]

For the game to be over Chaqa has to be town though, so if you're sure about Chaqa being scum you shouldn't worry.

I was talking about how Chaqa should view the game. If he is town he should be worried that JBH is scum and the game could end but he just didn't care much.

But you are right, if Chaqa is scum the game won't end tonight.

Also, there is no way I can be 100% sure about Chaqa. If he is town and JBH is scum we deserve to lose.

No, on the contrary, if Chaqa is mafia and JBH is town, you deserve to lose. JBH, me, has told you this for like 5 days now, and you wouldn't listen.

If you are town and Chaqa is Mafia we could still win.

[Chaqa]

I think town!Chaqa with a gun would have been much more invested in the game, like that game when he was neighborizer. He enjoys having power as town.

Also, why weren't more people on board with flipping JBH? Even if he is town, it wasn't a bad flip, as in that case it deprives scum of a sure kill tonight.

TBH I was planning to be more involved, but literally the day the game started, my girlfriend's parents told her they're selling the house she rents, so I'm just not super invested or active at the moment since we're in crisis mode.

Looks like I made an ass out of myself.

Well, your reasoning is true as well partially, but it's all together been a perfect storm lol. TBH I haven't even had time to finish up the M69 setup yet :/

[worcej]

Chaqa and/or worcej are also the ones most likely here to concoct a plan where JBH claims to have been shot, so that fits with my theory.

Although I suppose brainbomb and emc could go along with it as well.

In any case, the plan would only have been needed to give Chaqa cover, since they would have needed to account for a missing gun. Otherwise it doesn't make that much sense.

Woah, why would I be included with the 'let's do something crazy' group of Chaqa/EMC/BB? Is this just because damo and I took you to kylo intentionally once?

[damo666]

Also I became confident when I saw that these guys who have been playing for 20 to 40 games didn't have a clue. That they applied reasonable logic to silly premises and ended up with silly conclusions.

You said that it has been explained to me that Jamie and I must both be town or mafia, but I am sorry, I didn't understand, and don't want to. That takes more brain power than I have at the moment.

This I don't buy so much. Why don't you want to understand? Don't you want to win?

Jamie was shot night 1. There can't be any doubt about that, At least two shots were fired and snowy was shot only once. The only way Jamie could have been lying was if some other townie is hiding having been shot, which is absurd.

Chaqa knew Jamie had been shot. That can only be if he is town and shot him himself, or if he is scum.

Someone shot Eden or snowy with a gun N2. That had to be a scum shot, if it was town they would have told us.

So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, scum used two items N1 and one item N2. That's three items. But you claim you were shot. How? There were no more guns in the hands of Mafia. So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, you have to be lying about having been shot, and therefore scum as well.

You seem like a smart person even if you haven't played before, and you seem invested enough in the game to want to solve it, so your refusal to follow that not too complicated argument seems fake.

You explained it very simply. I appreciate that. Now I understand your reasoning.

Suppose Jamie and Chaqa were both mafia. Mafia gets one voted shot a night, and however many shots based on however many guns they have.

Suppose they have 3 guns.

Night 1: Jamie shot, Snowy shot. One gun used, and one voted shot.
Night 2: Eden shot, Snowy shot, Johnny shot. Two guns used and one voted shot... that is three guns used.

Tell me where I screwed this up. I am sure I did.

Yes, assuming you are telling the truth this is correct 3 guns fired. However we cannot be sure of the gunners' alignments. It is probably 3 scum or 2 scum + townChaqa.

[xorxes]

Also I became confident when I saw that these guys who have been playing for 20 to 40 games didn't have a clue. That they applied reasonable logic to silly premises and ended up with silly conclusions.

You said that it has been explained to me that Jamie and I must both be town or mafia, but I am sorry, I didn't understand, and don't want to. That takes more brain power than I have at the moment.

This I don't buy so much. Why don't you want to understand? Don't you want to win?

Jamie was shot night 1. There can't be any doubt about that, At least two shots were fired and snowy was shot only once. The only way Jamie could have been lying was if some other townie is hiding having been shot, which is absurd.

Chaqa knew Jamie had been shot. That can only be if he is town and shot him himself, or if he is scum.

Someone shot Eden or snowy with a gun N2. That had to be a scum shot, if it was town they would have told us.

So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, scum used two items N1 and one item N2. That's three items. But you claim you were shot. How? There were no more guns in the hands of Mafia. So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, you have to be lying about having been shot, and therefore scum as well.

You seem like a smart person even if you haven't played before, and you seem invested enough in the game to want to solve it, so your refusal to follow that not too complicated argument seems fake.

You explained it very simply. I appreciate that. Now I understand your reasoning.

Suppose Jamie and Chaqa were both mafia. Mafia gets one voted shot a night, and however many shots based on however many guns they have.

Suppose they have 3 guns.

Night 1: Jamie shot, Snowy shot. One gun used, and one voted shot.
Night 2: Eden shot, Snowy shot, Johnny shot. Two guns used and one voted shot... that is three guns used.

Tell me where I screwed this up. I am sure I did.

Jamie was shot night one. He had a rose, therefore he could not have a gun. This is not just Jamie's/my claim, this can't be false unless some townie is withholding information.

It is mechanically impossible for Chaqa and Jamie to be scum together if you are town and no town is withholding information.

[xorxes]

I don't really believe in pressure votes. I'm not like ghug or brain, I just plain don't jump my vote around a lot.

Any vote before the last hour or two is not really a vote, IMO. It's why I don't ever really get worried about pressure on me.

A cursory look at some of your past games shows you do often move your vote around. But in any case, if you thought your vote was meaningless, why unvote then?

Depends on which game. I just did a look and found a few such as M57 where I only ever cast one vote per game.

That still doesn't explain the unvote.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Also I became confident when I saw that these guys who have been playing for 20 to 40 games didn't have a clue. That they applied reasonable logic to silly premises and ended up with silly conclusions.

You said that it has been explained to me that Jamie and I must both be town or mafia, but I am sorry, I didn't understand, and don't want to. That takes more brain power than I have at the moment.

This I don't buy so much. Why don't you want to understand? Don't you want to win?

Jamie was shot night 1. There can't be any doubt about that, At least two shots were fired and snowy was shot only once. The only way Jamie could have been lying was if some other townie is hiding having been shot, which is absurd.

Chaqa knew Jamie had been shot. That can only be if he is town and shot him himself, or if he is scum.

Someone shot Eden or snowy with a gun N2. That had to be a scum shot, if it was town they would have told us.

So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, scum used two items N1 and one item N2. That's three items. But you claim you were shot. How? There were no more guns in the hands of Mafia. So if Jamie and Chaqa were both scum, you have to be lying about having been shot, and therefore scum as well.

You seem like a smart person even if you haven't played before, and you seem invested enough in the game to want to solve it, so your refusal to follow that not too complicated argument seems fake.

You explained it very simply. I appreciate that. Now I understand your reasoning.

Suppose Jamie and Chaqa were both mafia. Mafia gets one voted shot a night, and however many shots based on however many guns they have.

Suppose they have 3 guns.

Night 1: Jamie shot, Snowy shot. One gun used, and one voted shot.
Night 2: Eden shot, Snowy shot, Johnny shot. Two guns used and one voted shot... that is three guns used.

Tell me where I screwed this up. I am sure I did.

Ok, I screwed it up...try again.

Suppose they have 3 guns.

Night 1: Jamie not shot but claims he is shot, Snowy shot. No gun used, and one voted shot.
Night 2: Eden shot, Snowy shot, Johnny shot. Two guns used and one voted shot... that is two guns used.

My whole thing goes to hell in the statement you said... that there were 2 shots on night 1. Do we know that? If we do... then yes, I am dead wrong.

[xorxes]

From what I was reading, damo seems the towniest out of everyone, really putting in the effort.

I think emc is town just because the little he has said seemed always spot on.

I wasn't sure about rivera until he said what he said about people not voting for Chaqa, since Chaqa has seemed the scummiest out of everyone to me.

Not completely sure about JBH, either extremely clueless newbie, or crafty newbie scum. Number of shots tonight should be informative.

worcej hard to read because so absent, but I think he can read damo, and he is not reading him genuinely from my pov.

ghug opaque as usual, could go either way. Could replace JBH depending on what happens tonight.

Did I forget anyone?

What is townie of damo to you? He is pegging my scum-dar yet you think my read isn't genuine. His push on JBH right out of the gate immediately made me think he is pushing for the sake of pushing.

Only one you missed is celaph, who is BB, any take on them?

He explained the JBH push perfectly well, and it made perfect sense. Do you also not understand his argument?

I reread celaph and I still don't really have an opinion from that. I had a slight townlean on brainbomb.

[worcej]

From what I was reading, damo seems the towniest out of everyone, really putting in the effort.

I think emc is town just because the little he has said seemed always spot on.

I wasn't sure about rivera until he said what he said about people not voting for Chaqa, since Chaqa has seemed the scummiest out of everyone to me.

Not completely sure about JBH, either extremely clueless newbie, or crafty newbie scum. Number of shots tonight should be informative.

worcej hard to read because so absent, but I think he can read damo, and he is not reading him genuinely from my pov.

ghug opaque as usual, could go either way. Could replace JBH depending on what happens tonight.

Did I forget anyone?

What is townie of damo to you? He is pegging my scum-dar yet you think my read isn't genuine. His push on JBH right out of the gate immediately made me think he is pushing for the sake of pushing.

Only one you missed is celaph, who is BB, any take on them?

He explained the JBH push perfectly well, and it made perfect sense. Do you also not understand his argument?

I reread celaph and I still don't really have an opinion from that. I had a slight townlean on brainbomb.

It felt forced and the case was manufactured (and adapting) to fit the need to flip JBH. The same logical thought process was not being executed with ghug, which stood out to me as concerning.