M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Jamiet99uk]

DAY ONE
foodcoats (6) - rdrivera2005, Hamilton Brian, ghug, Chaqa, e.m.c^42, Jamiet99uk
brainbomb (4) - foodcoats, damo666, Johnny Big Horse, President Eden
e.m.c^42 (2) - Worcej, snowy801
Jamiet99uk (1) - Macca573
President Eden (1) - Brainbomb


DAY TWO
Macca573 (6) - damo666, ghug, President Eden, Hamilton Brian, Johnny Big Horse, snowy801
e.m.c^42 (3) - rdrivera2005, Jamiet99uk*, worcej
damo666 (2) - brainbomb, Macca573
rdrivera2005 (2) - Chaqa, e.m.c^42

[damo666]

It's a small detail but if JBH's claim to have been shot at, and saved by his vest, is true, then it's mathematically impossible for me and JBH to be scum together. We could be town together, and indeed that now seems relatively likely to me.

Unless any townies are holding un-declared guns, I think we can be pretty certain that we are down to just one death per night, for the remainder of the game (not that it will go much longer if we can't find scum today).

If you and JBH and Chaqa are all town thre is still a scum gun left and therefore 2 shots tonight.

[Johnny Big Horse]

It's a small detail but if JBH's claim to have been shot at, and saved by his vest, is true, then it's mathematically impossible for me and JBH to be scum together. We could be town together, and indeed that now seems relatively likely to me.

Unless any townies are holding un-declared guns, I think we can be pretty certain that we are down to just one death per night, for the remainder of the game (not that it will go much longer if we can't find scum today).

No, I think you are wrong Jamie. I am town, you are mafia. Chaca is mafia. And one more, maybe Rivera. What was PE saying when they killed him? And snowy too? Maybe we should put those two together, oh, and me too.

[Jamiet99uk]

No, I think you are wrong Jamie. I am town, you are mafia.

On what basis do you conclude that I am mafia?

[Johnny Big Horse]

I think BB is the third mafioso.

Jamiet
Brainbomb
Chaca

There is the answer.

Why BB? Because he and Jamiet seem to think together. Just now, BB came up with an idea, and Jamiet is immediately onboard. They are a team.

[Jamiet99uk]

but Jamie is still here? They took a chance on Eden and didn't take the clear shot at Jamie?

In what way was it a "chance" shooting Eden?

He had already declared he had a Rose N1:

rose n1

[damo666]

Was Chaqa is town , JBH is lying and scum have two guns left.

Currently 7-3

Mk 6-3

Factional kill plus two successful gunshots tonight (Jamie and Chaqa) and it's game over.

If we kill JBH and he flips town it will be 6-3 but then scum have only one gun left.

Optimum play is

##vote Johnny Big Horse.

Think through the logic it is the only sensible town vote.

##end

[Jamiet99uk]

Endvoting is a bit premature, Damo, calm down.

[damo666]

Was Chaqa is town , JBH is lying and scum have two guns left.

Currently 7-3

Mk 6-3

Factional kill plus two successful gunshots tonight (Jamie and Chaqa) and it's game over.

If we kill JBH and he flips town it will be 6-3 but then scum have only one gun left.

Optimum play is

##vote Johnny Big Horse.

Think through the logic it is the only sensible town vote.

##end

Sorry should have proofread.

If Chaqa is town and JBH is lying then .....

[damo666]

but Jamie is still here? They took a chance on Eden and didn't take the clear shot at Jamie?

In what way was it a "chance" shooting Eden?

He had already declared he had a Rose N1:

rose n1

Hadn't realised PE declared N1 rose.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Damo: Doesn't your little theory rely on the assumption that JBH is not only lying, but that *he* has a gun which he has not yet fired? How could you know that last part?

Otherwise, I fail to see how your idea is the only possible logical vote.

[Johnny Big Horse]

No, I think you are wrong Jamie. I am town, you are mafia.

On what basis do you conclude that I am mafia?

You got all mad at me a couple days ago about this, remember? You wanted to know why I pointed at you. It took me a day, but I decided you were right, and I gave my reasons.

Here are my reasons now:
1. I think the NK of Day 1 was weird and that it was engineered by Mafia, meaning that Jamie and Chaca are mafia.
2. You used your rose Day 1, so you were open for an easy kill Day 2. Why would a seasoned player (and you all are, except me) take a chance shooting me, when Jamie would be an easy 100% effective kill? And they didn't do it. They are either bozos, or you are mafia. I think you are mafia.
3. You were furious I stated you were mafia 2 days ago. It could be your nature, but I think your reaction was over the top, and I think it was a bluff.
4. You voted for Food. (I know, I voted for wrong once too)
5. BB said it was Ghug 15 minutes ago, and you jumped on board immediately. You are working with BB, both of you Mafia.
6. I think your day 1 argument with BB was over the top as well, perhaps a fake argument. Grasping at a straw there, that perhaps means nothing.

[Jamiet99uk]

but Jamie is still here? They took a chance on Eden and didn't take the clear shot at Jamie?

In what way was it a "chance" shooting Eden?

He had already declared he had a Rose N1:

rose n1

Hadn't realised PE declared N1 rose.

It was on page 1; I noticed it at the time but I didn't want to draw attention to it while PE was still alive. Now he's dead it seems safe to mention it.

[damo666]

Three reasons Eden could have been shot rather than Jamie

I) Jamie is scum
2) Scum thought it a decent enough gamble to kill PE with the side effect of throwing shade on Jamie
3) A townie shot PE

I assign rough probabilities as follows:

1) 30
2 ) 67
3) 3

Factoring in PE declared N1 rose (why did he do that?) 2 is not a gamble. Revised %s

1) 20
2) 79+
3) <1

[damo666]

In what way was it a "chance" shooting Eden?

He had already declared he had a Rose N1:

Hadn't realised PE declared N1 rose.

It was on page 1; I noticed it at the time but I didn't want to draw attention to it while PE was still alive. Now he's dead it seems safe to mention it.

So he probably had a N3 rose then lol

[Johnny Big Horse]

Is it legal to copy paste the private msg vecna sent me about being shot? If so I can.

Do you think a newbie, who has never seen a msg like this, would be able to create an authentic one?

If it is legal, I will copy paste it..

[rdrivera2005]

Is it legal to copy paste the private msg vecna sent me about being shot? If so I can.

Do you think a newbie, who has never seen a msg like this, would be able to create an authentic one?

If it is legal, I will copy paste it..

No, you can't. But I believe you. Damo idea makes no sense and we are not voting you today.

[damo666]

@Damo: Doesn't your little theory rely on the assumption that JBH is not only lying, but that *he* has a gun which he has not yet fired? How could you know that last part?

Otherwise, I fail to see how your idea is the only possible logical vote.

Let us assume JBH is scum and Chaqa is town having fired a gun N1.

Case A JBH has already used his gun. There are 2 other scum guns left with two known vulnerable targets.

We mk a town it is 6-3, the 2 guaranteed kills is 6-4 and they use the factional kill against someone not having a N3 rose (>67% surely) town is toast.

Case A JBH has not yet used his gun. Exactly as above with JBH as a gun holder.

We cannot afford to not lynch JBH.

If we mk JBH scum then only has one gun left and we have a chance.

JBH IS THE ONLY SENSIBLE VOTE FOR TOWNSFOLK

[damo666]

Is it legal to copy paste the private msg vecna sent me about being shot? If so I can.

Do you think a newbie, who has never seen a msg like this, would be able to create an authentic one?

If it is legal, I will copy paste it..

No, you can't. But I believe you. Damo idea makes no sense and we are not voting you today.

Of course it makes sense.

[damo666]

The second case A is case B obviously.