M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Jamiet99uk]

(Yes, Damo, that means I am townreading you. Please help yourself to a celebratory biscuit.)

[damo666]

(Yes, Damo, that means I am townreading you. Please help yourself to a celebratory biscuit.)

I've got Rich Tea and Jaffa Cake.

Think I'll go for Rich Tea.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Alright, so max three scum guns. Assume scum hit both snowy and Eden, and JBH If he was really hit. If that's not the case, the town shooter needs to claim.

Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Potentially 2 scum guns outstanding for N3, but there were multiple shots N1, so Chaqa actually probably shot Jamie, barring some other claim. This could be KILO, but it's very unlikely.
Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH scum - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH town - Chaqa shot Jamie, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Jamie had a rose, so one scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH town - Jamie had a rose, JBH was shot, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH scum - Potentially two guns left to be shot. This is the scary timeline
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding

The only case where we're in KILO, presuming no town tells us anything new about shots, which they must if they know something, is if Chaqa and Jamie are town. To me, that means scum has to be horsey plus some combination of Rd/worcej/Brian/damo, and I'd rather just kill in that group, since I independently townread our horse friend.

It'll be useful to come back to this tomorrow after another round of kills. If there's a shot, we eliminate the possibilities with no shots remaining

Numbering the cases 1 to 8

Cases 1 is so unlikely it can be ignored (I think it depends on a non Chaqa unclaimed townshot).

Case 2 is so contrived and doesn't pose an immediate threat so can be ignored.

Cases 5 and 6 I think can also be ignored as I can't see J taking a rose as scum. Also no immediate threat.

Cases 3 and 4 quite possible but no immediate threat.

Chaqa and Jamie should resolve soon anyway and certainly are not on he table for a vote.

This leaves cases 7 and 8 and I actually think jbh much more likely to be town (the false claim is quite a convoluted clever play and takes balls to carry off).

So if we gamble and assume case 8 this leaves

Me you rdr worcej Brian bb/celaph.

(Why did you omit bb/celaph?).

Of these I think HB would be my favoured kill.

However if case 8 is true we must kill JBH.

Now from mpov the nightmare scenario is a scumteam of {ghug, JBH, any other than J or C}. You then argue the above case to create an autowin opportunity.

If I vote anyone other than JBH I am gambling.

If Johnny was actually shot it's a shame he claimed so early. Had he not done so I would definitely vote from {HB, rdr, worcej}.

My big doubt on this reasoning is why choose JBH to claim being shot? He wasn't a likely DK today I think. This only makes sense if the other scum can't claim (Jamie and Chaqa) for example or if they want to sacrifice JBH to get another scum with a gun alive.
But I also find hard to understand why scum shot town JBH, so I really don't know what's best here.

THat is what I am trying to figure out. Why would scum shoot me? No reason, I think, unless I was right.

Scum should have shot Jaime, who was obviously open to being killed, since his rose was used up. Scum is not stupid, everyone here, except me, is expert. So why did scum not shoot Jaime? Isn't that the question?

[Johnny Big Horse]

##Vote Chaca

@JBH if you are town and Chaqa is scum, scum have no guns left and it would be more fruitful to hunt for the others.

Sorry, I don't understand. I don't know how the game goes after night 3.

I figured, if we vote Chaqa, and are right, then ... well, I don't know what happens then.

Suppose, as you say, all scum guns are gone, then how does the game get resolved? Does town win, since scum cannot kill anymore?

[Johnny Big Horse]

Furthermore, @JBH, President Eden did not list me in his final scumreads:

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

At this point you are either not reading the game, or you are just making up lies.

I am either making up lies, or I am misreading this post. You guys post so cryptically often. I am sure PE says in this quote that he is confident that Chaqa is mafia.

He did NOT list you as scum in his final read. Yes. You are right. He did, Night 1, and then he changed his mind. I trusted PE most.

Ok, so I didn't lie, I was lazy, and I apologize for that. He said Chaqa, not Jamie.

[damo666]

##Vote Chaca

@JBH if you are town and Chaqa is scum, scum have no guns left and it would be more fruitful to hunt for the others.

Sorry, I don't understand. I don't know how the game goes after night 3.

I figured, if we vote Chaqa, and are right, then ... well, I don't know what happens then.

Suppose, as you say, all scum guns are gone, then how does the game get resolved? Does town win, since scum cannot kill anymore?

Scum will be limited to just the one factional kill per night after N3 or after N2 if Chaqa is scum and you are town.

If both you and Chaqa are town scum have a gun left.

I think it is more optimal to try and find a scum with a n3 gun but ofc your vote is yours, however I think your shot claim has, perhaps ironically, made you toast.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Vote me if you want. I don't care anymore.

But, if you want to win, I am town, don't vote me.

It would be a stupid vote. Plus if Mafia has a gun (I am unclear if they have any left), they can easily shoot me or Jamie. So maybe save your vote for someone who isn't open for an easy kill.

[Johnny Big Horse]

@JBH if you are town and Chaqa is scum, scum have no guns left and it would be more fruitful to hunt for the others.

Sorry, I don't understand. I don't know how the game goes after night 3.

I figured, if we vote Chaqa, and are right, then ... well, I don't know what happens then.

Suppose, as you say, all scum guns are gone, then how does the game get resolved? Does town win, since scum cannot kill anymore?

Scum will be limited to just the one factional kill per night after N3 or after N2 if Chaqa is scum and you are town.

If both you and Chaqa are town scum have a gun left.

I think it is more optimal to try and find a scum with a n3 gun but ofc your vote is yours, however I think your shot claim has, perhaps ironically, made you toast.

That is what is crazy. I was shot. I got the msg from vecna, and I should have kept it to myself.

Stupid.

But, then, what is the point of the game? It is not to survive to the end, I suppose. If it was, then it would be smart not to volunteer you have been shot. The point is to out Mafiosos. But mentioning that you have been shot only works when people believe you. So, really, next time, I will keep it to myself.

Actually, next time I want to be scum so I can kick your asses.

[Hamilton Brian]

Three reasons Eden could have been shot rather than Jamie

I) Jamie is scum
2) Scum thought it a decent enough gamble to kill PE with the side effect of throwing shade on Jamie
3) A townie shot PE

I assign rough probabilities as follows:

1) 30
2 ) 67
3) 3

I think I am coming around to point 2. Do you think it forces a Jamie wagon?

[Hamilton Brian]

Eden's reads list isn't going to be the be all end all. Remember, according to snowy, we're all idiots. Except for the three scum.

PE post of reads from N2: viewtopic.php?p=244987#p244987
- Most Town -
Eden
snowy
Jamie
brainbomb
emc
dam​o
Johnny
Brian
ghug
= Town/Mafia Border =
rivera
worcej
Chaqa
- Most Mafia -

Then their Last post on the scum team.
Chaqa, rivera, worcej,

Scum knows there's probably town amongst that group (chaqa, rivera, worcej). Set up for another miskill. More likely scum in this group? Jamie,brainbomb/celaph, emc, dam​o, Johnny, ghug?

[Hamilton Brian]

I think Chaqa keeps getting implicated as scum through versions of N2 lists that this alone helps set up a misskill.

##Unvote

[Hamilton Brian]

My top three is always
1. damo
2. emc
3. snowy

after that its
4. Eden
5. Johnny
6. worcej

Knowing they're not hear to answer but maybe someone else might have an idea...are these the 6 that brain found most likely town?

[Jamiet99uk]

My top three is always
1. damo
2. emc
3. snowy

after that its
4. Eden
5. Johnny
6. worcej

Knowing they're not hear to answer but maybe someone else might have an idea...are these the 6 that brain found most likely town?

No those are his scumreads, surely?

[Jamiet99uk]

My top three is always
1. damo
2. emc
3. snowy

after that its
4. Eden
5. Johnny
6. worcej

Knowing they're not hear to answer but maybe someone else might have an idea...are these the 6 that brain found most likely town?

No those are his scumreads, surely?

Look, Brainbomb posted this just a page or two earlier:

This is an interesting post. You are assuming scum take one N1 gun in all possibilities. Are you scum with Chaqa?

again I ask

why
cant
he
be
scum
with snowy
and emc

See?

[Jamiet99uk]

That took me 20 seconds, Hamilton.

Why did you even ask that question and not just check for yourself?

[damo666]

Sorry, I don't understand. I don't know how the game goes after night 3.

I figured, if we vote Chaqa, and are right, then ... well, I don't know what happens then.

Suppose, as you say, all scum guns are gone, then how does the game get resolved? Does town win, since scum cannot kill anymore?

Scum will be limited to just the one factional kill per night after N3 or after N2 if Chaqa is scum and you are town.

If both you and Chaqa are town scum have a gun left.

I think it is more optimal to try and find a scum with a n3 gun but ofc your vote is yours, however I think your shot claim has, perhaps ironically, made you toast.

That is what is crazy. I was shot. I got the msg from vecna, and I should have kept it to myself.

Stupid.

But, then, what is the point of the game? It is not to survive to the end, I suppose. If it was, then it would be smart not to volunteer you have been shot. The point is to out Mafiosos. But mentioning that you have been shot only works when people believe you. So, really, next time, I will keep it to myself.

Actually, next time I want to be scum so I can kick your asses.

It is natural to want to survive but remember it is a team game and that is what is important. You still win if your team wins even if you are dead. If you are town (and I actually think you are) I understand it is frustrating but you ought to realise that from other town's pov the only way scum can have two guns is if you are scum. This makes you a safe mk. Any other mk means scum could win tonight.

If you are scum and we mk [HB say] then you probably* win tonight.

If you are scum and we kill you, we come out after tonight 6-2 or 5-2.

If you are town and we mk you we come out after tonight 5-3 or 4-3.

If you are town and we mk another town we again come out 5-3 or 4-3.

If you are town and we kill scum we come out tonight 6-2 or 5-2.

* about 80* with 20% 4-3.

[Hamilton Brian]

That took me 20 seconds, Hamilton.

Why did you even ask that question and not just check for yourself?

I was going through, came across this: viewtopic.php?p=245030#p245030, and just wanted the certainty.

[Johnny Big Horse]

(Yes, Damo, that means I am townreading you. Please help yourself to a celebratory biscuit.)

Vote me out. But I am right. I will take the solo win, and to hell with the rest of the team.

Mafia is Chaqa, Jamie, and Damo. That is it.

Of course they will self-congratulate each other.
Of course, they will try to convince the rest of you to vote me out.
That is their job

When the game is over, I will go buy myself a trophy because I called it.

[damo666]

Having banged on about JBH being a safe kill his impassioned (though somewhat naive) post sound very town. I am tempted to gamble 'all in' on JBH being town.

In this case who to vote for? I think it has to be from {HB, worcej, rdr}. Thoughts people on kill Johnny v assume Johnny town and if the latter who to kill?

I appeal for a Bozo type survey on the above.

[damo666]

Three reasons Eden could have been shot rather than Jamie

I) Jamie is scum
2) Scum thought it a decent enough gamble to kill PE with the side effect of throwing shade on Jamie
3) A townie shot PE

I assign rough probabilities as follows:

1) 30
2 ) 67
3) 3

I think I am coming around to point 2. Do you think it forces a Jamie wagon?

2 implies Jamie is town.