M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[damo666]

@thug can you explain why, as a town gun claimant, scum haven't killed you yet?

[damo666]

@thug can you explain why, as a town gun claimant, scum haven't killed you yet?

Apologies!

@ghug

Bloody autocorrect.

[damo666]

Alright, so max three scum guns. Assume scum hit both snowy and Eden, and JBH If he was really hit. If that's not the case, the town shooter needs to claim.

Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Potentially 2 scum guns outstanding for N3, but there were multiple shots N1, so Chaqa actually probably shot Jamie, barring some other claim. This could be KILO, but it's very unlikely.
Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH scum - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH town - Chaqa shot Jamie, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Jamie had a rose, so one scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH town - Jamie had a rose, JBH was shot, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH scum - Potentially two guns left to be shot. This is the scary timeline
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding

The only case where we're in KILO, presuming no town tells us anything new about shots, which they must if they know something, is if Chaqa and Jamie are town. To me, that means scum has to be horsey plus some combination of Rd/worcej/Brian/damo, and I'd rather just kill in that group, since I independently townread our horse friend.

It'll be useful to come back to this tomorrow after another round of kills. If there's a shot, we eliminate the possibilities with no shots remaining

Numbering the cases 1 to 8

Cases 1 is so unlikely it can be ignored (I think it depends on a non Chaqa unclaimed townshot).

Case 2 is so contrived and doesn't pose an immediate threat so can be ignored.

Cases 5 and 6 I think can also be ignored as I can't see J taking a rose as scum. Also no immediate threat.

Cases 3 and 4 quite possible but no immediate threat.

Chaqa and Jamie should resolve soon anyway and certainly are not on he table for a vote.

This leaves cases 7 and 8 and I actually think jbh much more likely to be town (the false claim is quite a convoluted clever play and takes balls to carry off).

So if we gamble and assume case 8 this leaves

Me you rdr worcej Brian bb/celaph.

(Why did you omit bb/celaph?).

Of these I think HB would be my favoured kill.

However if case 8 is true we must kill JBH.

Now from mpov the nightmare scenario is a scumteam of {ghug, JBH, any other than J or C}. You then argue the above case to create an autowin opportunity.

If I vote anyone other than JBH I am gambling.

If Johnny was actually shot it's a shame he claimed so early. Had he not done so I would definitely vote from {HB, rdr, worcej}.

Couple of corrections:

If case 7 (not 8) is true we must kill JBH.

EMC should be added to the case 8 pool.

[damo666]

After all that lot I am surely obvtown.

[dargorygel]

##GM NOTE
VOTE COUNT 3.01

Chaqa (2) Johnny Big Horse, Hamilton Brian
Johnny Big Horse: (2) damo666, Chaqa
ghug: (1) Jamiet99uk
Hamilton Brian: (1) ghug

Damo is hammering Johnny

Presently, due to the tie, no one is set to be destroyed.

Not yet voting: celaph, e.m.c^42, rdrivera2005, worcej

Not yet posting adequately: worcej

34 ¼ hours left in this day.

[Jamiet99uk]

After all that lot I am surely obvtown.

If you didn't keep appealing to the crowd like this you'd probably be even more town-read than you are. Nobody is voting for you, so the need to make these appeals to the audience baffles me, frankly.

Nonetheless, you have put some good work in during this phase. Thank you for that. I'll have some more detailed comments on that, when I can.

[rdrivera2005]

Ghug's gun claim

Possibilities

1. He is lying and has a rose and is

a) scum - so unlikely can be ignored

b) town - very possible

2. He has a gun and is

a) scum who has already shot - possible but why claim
b) scum with n3 gun - again why claim?
c) town who has already shot - then why not tell us? Can be ignored.
d) town with n3 gun - let's hope, please shoot a survivor from HB, worcej, rdr

If ghug is town there is a good chance he will draw a kill (due to possibilty of 2d) thus giving at least 2 of town Jamie town Chaqa and town JBH survival.

Hopefully scum NK ghug and he has a N2 rose.

Anyway for today at least ghug is off the table.

Ghug claimed a rose EON1.

[damo666]

After all that lot I am surely obvtown.

If you didn't keep appealing to the crowd like this you'd probably be even more town-read than you are. Nobody is voting for you, so the need to make these appeals to the audience baffles me, frankly.

Nonetheless, you have put some good work in during this phase. Thank you for that. I'll have some more detailed comments on that, when I can.

Bit tic really tbh

[Jamiet99uk]

When I was postulating that Jamie or Snowy would be the prime N2 mafia kills, I expected it to be Jamie the whole time. Mafia feel like more people read snowy as townier than Jamie OR Jamie is scum. Are we 100% Jamie is townclear from the events of N1?

This is why I'm alive.

I am not 100% townclear. Nobody is. (No Damo, not you either). But show some caution - because this is the debate Mafia wanted town to be having. They kept me alive to create this uncertainty.

[damo666]

Ghug's gun claim

Possibilities

1. He is lying and has a rose and is

a) scum - so unlikely can be ignored

b) town - very possible

2. He has a gun and is

a) scum who has already shot - possible but why claim
b) scum with n3 gun - again why claim?
c) town who has already shot - then why not tell us? Can be ignored.
d) town with n3 gun - let's hope, please shoot a survivor from HB, worcej, rdr

If ghug is town there is a good chance he will draw a kill (due to possibilty of 2d) thus giving at least 2 of town Jamie town Chaqa and town JBH survival.

Hopefully scum NK ghug and he has a N2* rose.

Anyway for today at least ghug is off the table.

Ghug claimed a rose EON1.

OK thanks. If we take that as the truth he doesn't have a n2 rose. Anyway I don't think he's a sensible kill today.

* N3 obviously.

[damo666]

If we kill JBH and he flips town then scum have 1 gun max.

Unless they kill both Jamie and Chaqa they have to either hold their factional kill or create a townclear.

[Jamiet99uk]

When I was postulating that Jamie or Snowy would be the prime N2 mafia kills, I expected it to be Jamie the whole time. Mafia feel like more people read snowy as townier than Jamie OR Jamie is scum. Are we 100% Jamie is townclear from the events of N1?

Who is we? I think Jaime is scum. PE thought Jaime is scum. At one point, even BB thought so, but probably not anymore.

This statement is wrong.
In President Eden's last post mentioning me, he described me as very likely town.

Observe:

I need to know mechanically, without a shadow of a doubt, that the guns going off 100% clear snowy, chaqa, and jamie. Because I am not 100% certain. I think that there's a world where scum will gamble around with claims. The rational part of me says that doesn't happen until later just to get deep threats going. The other side says to do it now (D1/N1) since we're relying on innuendo and little information.

They don’t 100% clear anybody. They very likely make snowy and Jamie town. They don’t really mean anything for Chaqa.

• N1 rose is a town play generally bc mafia wants to take as many guns as possible
• No one claimed snowy’s shot -> factional kill
• Chaqa easily could have been mafia trying to shoot a townie with town’s blessing

[Jamiet99uk]

Furthermore, @JBH, President Eden did not list me in his final scumreads:

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

At this point you are either not reading the game, or you are just making up lies.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie, why did you join brainbomb in voting for me?

I figured it was a good way to start the day.

[Jamiet99uk]

Celaph has replaced brainbomb.

Brain's wife is now expected to go into labor wednesday. He decided he needed to focus on family things.

Good choice, and good luck, brain! And Mrs. brain. And baby brain.

Oh, woot. Best of luck to Brainbomb and Mrs. Brainbomb, and in due course to Baby Brainbomb.

Welcome, Celaph.

[Jamiet99uk]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

Why did they shoot him? Was he on to something?

##VOTE CHAQA

Right, so, hang on - clearly you were perfectly aware of this post by PE just before he died, yet you still claimed that he scumread me when he died.

So, you're a liar. And not a good one.

##VOTE JOHNNY BIG HORSE

[Jamiet99uk]

Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.

What?

Where did Rdrivera claim he survived a shot N1?

[Jamiet99uk]

I find your reaction to this exceptionally questionable.

I’m completely befuddled why you’re being difficult. If Rivera was shot at, it is super important and I need to rethink my PoE. I find it hard to believe I missed such an important piece of information???

I was giving celaph intentionally inaccurate information to see what he'd do with it. I feel like I was fair to expect you to realize that, but who knows?

Oh I see you were just fucking about.
Never mind about my previous question, then.

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie -- Not worth trying to short while tired. Might as well wait to read more to work with.

Is this a Sean Connery impersonation?

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok I think I'm caught up.

My guess at the scumteam is:

Johnny, the Pony of Unprecedented Size

Plus one of: EMC or Hamilton Brian

Plus one of: Ghug, Rdrivera, Worcej