M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

If you have a game you want to play on the forum, you can do so here.
Forum rules
This is an area for forum games. Please note that to support mafia games players cannot edit their own posts in this forum. Off Topic threads will be relocated or deleted. Issues taking place in forum games should be dealt with by respective game GMs and escalated to the moderators only if absolutely necessary.
Message
Author
Jamiet99uk
Posts: 16527
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 pm
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 7433
Contact:

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#461 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:14 pm

Oh sorry Darg.
2

Jamiet99uk
Posts: 16527
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 pm
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 7433
Contact:

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#462 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:16 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 6:46 am
ghug/Chaqa was the interaction. ghug has no reason to put Chaqa as top townread. Chaqa's playing nice with ghug. They both got guns, and while I'm not necessarily sure that ghug was going to hipfire Chaqa, I am very confident the reverse was true. There's a detente between them that makes no sense based on personal history or game state, and it strongly suggests they know they're on the same team. They're finding awkward reasons not to sus each other because they know they'd shoot each other if they weren't on the same team.
@President Eden: You just said you think the scum team is Brainbomb, Ghug, and Chaqa.

So here you are theorising that Scum!Chaqa was definitely going to shoot Scum!Ghug?

Please explain.
2

dargorygel
Site Moderator
Site Moderator
Posts: 4578
Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:55 pm
Location: Over the rainbow
Karma: 4680
Contact:

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#463 Post by dargorygel » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:19 pm

##GM NOTE
VOTE COUNT 1.08
(for updated accuracy and convenience)

foodcoats: (4) rdrivera2005, Hamilton Brian, snowy801, brainbomb
brainbomb: (4) President Eden, foodcoats, damo666, Jamiet99uk
President Eden: (2) Johnny Big Horse, ghug
Jamiet99uk: (1) Macca573
worcej: (1) Chaqa

(one end vote: Eden for brain)


All have posted
e.m.c^42 and worcej have not yet voted


No one is in the lead

Still just under 10 hours today.
1

snowy801
Posts: 628
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:47 am
Karma: 549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#464 Post by snowy801 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 pm

I think this premise that everyone suspected or known to hold a gun is scum is supremely.flimsy and at best a horrendous reach. It relies on the conjecture that the scum team is unbelievably stupid (not impossible, but despite joking around some I don't actually believe that of anyone in this game). I immediately could see that the only way to move forward as town was to choose rose, and it does not seem probable that 2 or 3 members of scum failed to notice this, and then proceeded to talk about it after it was made clear that there were at most 2 guns in town.

It does not exonerate brainbomb, as his response to early pressure was erratic and highly unmatural (I state once again that I very much resonate with PE's argument that he thinks brainbomb was upset at having been implicated for mechanical reasons after the max 2 town gun reveal, rather than any in thread substance), but it does make me wonder the desperation PE is currently showing to "solve" the game.

I don't believe there is currently any reason to suspect that chaqa is scum. Not sure about ghug, but that just means I wouldn't elevate him over the remaining candidates as well. Curious, and I don't draw an immediate conclusion from this.
2

brainbomb
Posts: 15595
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:20 pm
Location: the sock drawer
Karma: 4358

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#465 Post by brainbomb » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:46 pm

I took an item
and it was based on the role I received, not pregame

and I am town
thank you

this message was brought to you by Sears
2

snowy801
Posts: 628
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:47 am
Karma: 549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#466 Post by snowy801 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:49 pm

brainbomb, why were you behaving as though you did not read the rules (e.g. knowing it was only town that took 9-11 roses), did not know the number of scum, and did not know why people were making lists of people for?

What would you say was going through your mind as you made each of these sets of posts?
2

President Eden
Posts: 1664
Joined: Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:11 pm
Karma: 1549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#467 Post by President Eden » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:00 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:16 pm
President Eden wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 6:46 am
ghug/Chaqa was the interaction. ghug has no reason to put Chaqa as top townread. Chaqa's playing nice with ghug. They both got guns, and while I'm not necessarily sure that ghug was going to hipfire Chaqa, I am very confident the reverse was true. There's a detente between them that makes no sense based on personal history or game state, and it strongly suggests they know they're on the same team. They're finding awkward reasons not to sus each other because they know they'd shoot each other if they weren't on the same team.
@President Eden: You just said you think the scum team is Brainbomb, Ghug, and Chaqa.

So here you are theorising that Scum!Chaqa was definitely going to shoot Scum!Ghug?

Please explain.
No. I'm saying that the expected move from them taking guns is to shoot each other, or at least for Chaqa to shoot ghug (ghug might not reciprocate). Instead they're being awkwardly and uncharacteristically nice to each other when neither is obvtowning in the thread enough to justify it. They're going out of their way not to sus each other so that they have an excuse not to shoot each other that covers for them being on the same team.
2

President Eden
Posts: 1664
Joined: Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:11 pm
Karma: 1549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#468 Post by President Eden » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:06 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:24 pm
I think this premise that everyone suspected or known to hold a gun is scum is supremely.flimsy and at best a horrendous reach. It relies on the conjecture that the scum team is unbelievably stupid (not impossible, but despite joking around some I don't actually believe that of anyone in this game). I immediately could see that the only way to move forward as town was to choose rose, and it does not seem probable that 2 or 3 members of scum failed to notice this, and then proceeded to talk about it after it was made clear that there were at most 2 guns in town.

It does not exonerate brainbomb, as his response to early pressure was erratic and highly unmatural (I state once again that I very much resonate with PE's argument that he thinks brainbomb was upset at having been implicated for mechanical reasons after the max 2 town gun reveal, rather than any in thread substance), but it does make me wonder the desperation PE is currently showing to "solve" the game.

I don't believe there is currently any reason to suspect that chaqa is scum. Not sure about ghug, but that just means I wouldn't elevate him over the remaining candidates as well. Curious, and I don't draw an immediate conclusion from this.
Why so dramatic? You're really rubbing me the wrong way with the sweeping overstatements.

It's not that everyone that has a gun is mafia, it's that they're significantly more likely to be, both based on what we know about how many people took roses and the general incentives mafia have to take guns in this setup. It is mechanically impossible for all of brainbomb, ghug, and Chaqa to be town if they all took guns. There's nothing "reaching" or "flimsy" about that.

Nor am I "desperate" to solve the game. I see things and I point them out. I don't get why you're shading my posts while agreeing with me.
2

Hamilton Brian
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 2589
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:21 am
Location: Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Karma: 466

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#469 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:16 pm

Well that has changed the direction of the thread somewhat.

The big assumption is that those three have claimed guns. The only one to outright claim a gun in game, I think, is chaqa. That belief rests in chaqa's believability. At this point I think it's worth taking them at their word.

Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?
2

Macca573
Posts: 1111
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:24 am
Location: Probably not in your timezone (They/Them)
Karma: 365

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#470 Post by Macca573 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:23 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:45 am
I see no harm to Town in a full claim.

I hard claim rose.
What? How?
2

snowy801
Posts: 628
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:47 am
Karma: 549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#471 Post by snowy801 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:24 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:06 pm
Why so dramatic? You're really rubbing me the wrong way with the sweeping overstatements.

It's not that everyone that has a gun is mafia, it's that they're significantly more likely to be, both based on what we know about how many people took roses and the general incentives mafia have to take guns in this setup. It is mechanically impossible for all of brainbomb, ghug, and Chaqa to be town if they all took guns. There's nothing "reaching" or "flimsy" about that.
Fortunately, I've never been one to care whether I "rub someone the wrong way" in the scumread sense. Though if I am ever perceived to be making someone's experience unpleasant, by all means let me know!

I tend to care less about what people say, and why people say it. It is true that under the base assumption you lay out, one in three has to be scum, which echoes the very first post you laid out with the 60-100%.

However, it is not known for certain that brainbomb, chaqa, or ghug has a gun. I would arbitrarily assign the following probabilities of those individuals possessing one:

bb: 80%
chaqa: 95%
ghug: 50%

Which is not to make some Bayesian probability appeal, simply to state that you hold a type of certainty in a world where such certainty does not exist. I have considered all the evidence you should have available and determined so, at any rate, though you may feel free to disagree.

Setting aside the issue of brainbomb, which I am as you noted wavering but inclined to agree, I am interested here in you. It is often difficult to discern definitive assertions between someone who actually knows something and someone who merely believes they know something (being on the internet I'm sure we're all familiar with this) but I believe you are expressing confidence you should not realistically have, which worries me.

And so I wonder why you make the claims you make. Could it simply be a ploy to gather a following? Certainly, you often read that nuances in public speeches are a lost cause and you should give them soundbites to rally around. So if you are simply trying to appear confident in this sea of unknowns, so be it. But your actions speak of agendas, which is what I would like to discuss.
President Eden wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:06 pm
Nor am I "desperate" to solve the game. I see things and I point them out. I don't get why you're shading my posts while agreeing with me.
If it were merely that, I do not think you would be claiming you have found all three mafia members 10 hours before deadline and slamming end votes. It is sufficient to most probably identify one scum member by end of day, you see, and as I stated earlier your chaqa-ghug connection is an unbelievable reach which I cannot find a justification for.
2

snowy801
Posts: 628
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:47 am
Karma: 549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#472 Post by snowy801 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:35 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:40 pm
I find it notable that worcej has yet to vote despite his contributions.

Would you say that this is customary for you? If so, who do you think you would hypothetically vote for if someone put a gun to your head and if not, what's different?
worcej, I would like to repose this question to you. I am very much interested in your response.
2

Chaqa
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 6310
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:33 pm
Location: Allentown, PA, USA
Karma: 2488

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#473 Post by Chaqa » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:35 pm

The chance I have a gun is actually 100%, snowy.

@food: I don’t think I ever said there were no guns? I said I picked a gun without having read the setup, which is true.

Eden’s point about me shooting ghug is also true. I had told him I was going to pick a gun and pop him, which I may still do, but it seems a little off now obsessed he is with it
2

Jamiet99uk
Posts: 16527
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 pm
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 7433
Contact:

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#474 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:52 pm

President Eden wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:00 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:16 pm
@President Eden: You just said you think the scum team is Brainbomb, Ghug, and Chaqa.

So here you are theorising that Scum!Chaqa was definitely going to shoot Scum!Ghug?

Please explain.
No. I'm saying that the expected move from them taking guns is to shoot each other, or at least for Chaqa to shoot ghug (ghug might not reciprocate). Instead they're being awkwardly and uncharacteristically nice to each other when neither is obvtowning in the thread enough to justify it. They're going out of their way not to sus each other so that they have an excuse not to shoot each other that covers for them being on the same team.
What makes you so sure that Chaqa with a gun would always target Ghug?
2

Jamiet99uk
Posts: 16527
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 pm
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 7433
Contact:

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#475 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:53 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:16 pm
Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?
That would be a highly dubious statement because it is guaranteed to be false. We know at least 9 town did take a rose.
2

Jamiet99uk
Posts: 16527
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 pm
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 7433
Contact:

Re: M68: Roses N' Roses

#476 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:56 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:35 pm
Eden’s point about me shooting ghug is also true. I had told him I was going to pick a gun and pop him.
Oh, ok then.
2

snowy801
Posts: 628
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:47 am
Karma: 549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#477 Post by snowy801 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:56 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:53 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:16 pm
Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?
That would be a highly dubious statement because it is guaranteed to be false. We know at least 9 town did take a rose.
No, he's saying exactly 11 town didn't take a rose. As in, chaqa said well we know there's not 11 roses because I have a gun. So it could be 10, 9, but not 11.
2

Jamiet99uk
Posts: 16527
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:42 pm
Location: Durham, UK
Karma: 7433
Contact:

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#478 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:01 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:56 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:53 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 1:16 pm
Is there anything dubious about saying "eleven town didn't choose a rose?" How far out would mafia stick their necks out with a claim like that?
That would be a highly dubious statement because it is guaranteed to be false. We know at least 9 town did take a rose.
No, he's saying exactly 11 town didn't take a rose. As in, chaqa said well we know there's not 11 roses because I have a gun. So it could be 10, 9, but not 11.
Oh. Then why didn't he just say "I purport that exactly 1 or 2 town chose guns" ?

That would have been a much clearer statement. The way he phrased it was weird.

Using the word "purport" always adds both emphasis and clarity.
3

snowy801
Posts: 628
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:47 am
Karma: 549

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#479 Post by snowy801 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:11 pm

I could not tell you, except to reiterate chaqa's exact quote which I believe HB was pinging off.
Welp, I can safely say that 11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Rip me
But I suppose I'll let him speak for himself at this point. And Jamiet, nobody uses purport in everyday language.
2

Chaqa
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 6310
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:33 pm
Location: Allentown, PA, USA
Karma: 2488

Re: M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

#480 Post by Chaqa » Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:19 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:11 pm
I could not tell you, except to reiterate chaqa's exact quote which I believe HB was pinging off.
Welp, I can safely say that 11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Rip me
But I suppose I'll let him speak for himself at this point. And Jamiet, nobody uses purport in everyday language.
I don’t see what’s confusing at all about my statement.

11 town didn’t pick a rose.

Maybe 10 did.
2

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests