Re: MAFIA 67 OFFICIAL GAME THREAD —//—//— CURSE OF THE AZURE BONDS [hidden]
Posted: Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:04 pm
And now I have to work. Will try to get back to D3 and forward later or at night.
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WIFOM plays are certainly possible, but I think the RHK death actually looks good for Vecna. If we're assuming scum wants to kill the people that town townread, then RHK dying suggest that scum were bothered by Vecna's townread, giving townpoints to Vecna.
He didn't move to gimix at last minute, which I was reading as townie. But it's probably him playing conservative and avoiding the risk of getting caught like Ghug.↑Hamilton Brian: "I don’t think mafia would be so passive at the end of the day. Vecna is low key and EMC , for being so close to a day k..."
Who do you prefer then? I suggested rdr and you seemed to shoot that down.
I could guess on any number of things regarding Gimix, but I expect that the honest answer is that Vecna just had a solid townread on him, nothing flashy.Macca573 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:59 amAs a debater, I bloody loved reading those posts. It has earned you an ##UNVOTE for now.
I've taken some of the things you've said, and had a couple thoughts. This is not a decision I make lightly.
What I want to know now, is what caused Vecna to target Gimix? How was he sure Gimix was actually newb town? A miss there would have cost him the game (with him a guaranteed out the next day). Where do you think the signaling was?
You have a point, though fear killing someone works best when they are one of the few people sussing you for a number of reasons.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:20 amI feel really interesting how you are bringing a dead town read from N3 that point me as scum to say PE was a fearkill and you just forgot about the two last NKs that were both townreading me and scumreading you at some level. If you aplly basic logical if makes a lot more sense to fearkill closer to milo then at N3.celaph wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:13 am@Macca, to call your attention to two other things that I've come across in reading.
The first is that PE looks a lot like a fear kill posting the following a couple hours before he was NK'd.The second is that in hindsight rdr was leading us the exact opposite direction with his sniper susses.President Eden wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 6:24 pmrivera and Vecna are the ones coming to mind for me. I'm trying not to do the obnoxious reductionist "you haven't been nk'd yet so you're mafia" bit, but as a pair of players who often get picked off early when they're town, I'm underwhelmed by what they've decided to do with their extended lease on life.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 2:56 amThe Sniper is even harder, I was betting on a newbie, considering the way Damo was signalling but yesterday's shot was pretty well timed, so not sure anymore.
Here I disagree with you. If you killed me or Macca instead of emc you will have to push an emc kill which will be against your reads earlier. Killing them you can push me that you was already sussing before. I feel like you have already a big case prepared on me.celaph wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:51 pmYou have a point, though fear killing someone works best when they are one of the few people sussing you for a number of reasons.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:20 amI feel really interesting how you are bringing a dead town read from N3 that point me as scum to say PE was a fearkill and you just forgot about the two last NKs that were both townreading me and scumreading you at some level. If you aplly basic logical if makes a lot more sense to fearkill closer to milo then at N3.celaph wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:13 am@Macca, to call your attention to two other things that I've come across in reading.
The first is that PE looks a lot like a fear kill posting the following a couple hours before he was NK'd.
The second is that in hindsight rdr was leading us the exact opposite direction with his sniper susses.
For one, by killing PE, you remove the vast majority of the sus that is being thrown on you and Vecna. Killing HB and EMC doesn't change the sus on me as substantially as others sus me as well. That makes fear killing a far less inviting proposition.
Secondly, because 3 of the last 4 (final 6 minus Vecna and me) sussed me, it's really easy for you to kill who you want and say that I was fearkilling. You can kill anyone besides you and I and then accuse me of killing them for that exact reason.
Side note: I think it's a stretch to say that HB scumread me when he died. I think he certainly townread you more, but N5 he didn't seem that convinced that I was scum with Vecna.
For one, you can't just say that I'm distorting things as an offhand remark and defense of your own comments. Point out where I am cherry picking quotes or misrepresenting people or otherwise actually distorting things. I quoted a large portion of your reads on Vecna, what in those quotes is distorted?You are again distorting things. I voted Vecna because he wasn´t NK and because I have more town vibes from the other players remaining and it was clear in my vote.
I interacted with Vecna and he started to shade me telling I was keeping my options open, which isn´t true. I guess this is him trying to identify his partner as the best scum play is to keep the options open to try to get a misskill. The way he was flip flopping around trying to get a new target solidified my scum read on him.
Where are you getting that Damo was caught signalling from? Sure worcej sussed him for signalling, but when you defended him he had zero votes. That's a great time to defend someone as they are unlikely to flip, but have sus to clear them of.You think bussing a goon that was caught signalling doesn´t make sense, but bussing the Sniper that wasn´t an obvious DK and that will make 1 scum against 6 town makes sense?
I did in fact do that. I actually think Vecna looked pretty good day 5, a point on which Macca agreed. If you want to add to your list of quotes, note how I thought the Demon kill looked good for Vecna.Also, you openly defended Vecna at that start of the day:
[Snipped quotes of me]
In your first batch of posts after Vecna unvoted me, you said, "Celaph today seems a lot more towny, even suspecting me (or maybe because he is suspecting me)." If you think that something in my posts made Vecna think that I was his teammate, please point it out instead of just saying that it might exist. Otherwise, you have to contend with the fact that you admitted my behavior was substantially better which more than accounts for Vecna's change in vote.Also, Vecna was voting you at day start, but at some point he just changed his mind and started to look for other targets, emc, me and gimix to see if any of them gets traction. I am pretty sure he identified you as his last partner. Vecna knew he won´t last to end game, so he just want to get a misskill to make his partner chances better and he achieved it.
Don't remember exactly. Probably wanted a better read on Macca.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:39 amI started the re-reading and this quote is interesting. Signaling to Sniper?
Considering Damo was also signaling it could be risky, but I don´t really know why scum want to signal to Vecna. I see a reason to signal to a newbie to avoid him shooting a scum, but Vecna know well how to play this role.
Why you did this specific post Celaph?
I'll concede that you can't answer to why PE sussed you, but the rest of this is rather weak.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:43 amWell, I am adressing his arguments and also re-reading. I hope you can see the difference from someone trying to win a debate by fitting a narrative like he was doing and someone that is actually telling the truth. He was pushing exactly things that can´t be answered, like me being away at D1 EOD and Eden N3 scum read on me. I feel like he has this already prepared to convince you to change your mind and vote me, and unfortunetely it seems to be working.Macca573 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:39 amNo. He listed arguments with cited reason. It was well structured and easy to follow. You're attacking his argument in the wrong way, and it's not helping your case.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:14 am
I think Celaph had made a great work bringing a really huge wall of text that is really hard to answer to. If you are a debater you problably can see he is trying to make this day to be about me defending myself and in a debate the more you got in the defensive the more you look guilty. He just made a narrative that fit his agenda on getting me sus. I will adress some of the points, that I think I didn´t before, but I prefer to invest my time re-reading.
So, if you have the time please do yourself a re-read of both me and him and if you have any question please adress me.
Vecna was also added to that list btw, just added after the fact as I forgot about him.
I voted lfischl because I scumread him while Damo was a null for me. I later got off lfischl because his wagon didn't go anywhere and got onto Damo because I hated the Chaqa wagon. I was still rather null on Damo, but his wagon was far less scummy than Chaqa's so I joined it.Here, you voted lfishcl to be the counter wagon to Perp and not Damo (both have 1 vote).
Noting my point above about not particularly townreading ghug, it's not particularly correct to say that my read on him did a 180. More just that it went from null to very scummy quickly. That said, as to why my read changed, that's very easy: the comparison between M65 and M67 was really obvious. You too seemed to instantly draw the connection to M65, yet somehow managed to stop short of sussing ghug as I mentioned earlier.You also made a 360 change on mind on your Ghug read. What made you change your mind here? This is exactly what I expect from a scum that see that goon Damo will go sooner or later and with the other scum alreading making an effort to start a town wagon (Chaqa).
As to why I changed my mind on Damo, you'll note that I've already written about that today.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:02 pmAnother quote I find interesting, trying to detach Ghug and Damo alignment.
But after saying the killing and unCCd PR is a good play you just got convinced and decided to vote him after all. And with another hedgy statement about Ghug.celaph wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 9:49 pmOr similarly why wouldn't scum ghug defend town Damo to get towncred later?
Overall I think Damo's rather sus, but I by no means want to kill an unCC'd PR at this stage. The risk reward is not worth it. That said, I don't think that ghug is tied to Damo in alignment/PR status simply by his defense of Damo. Ghug will look terrible if Damo flips scum, but I don't think it's a good idea to flip Damo yet so we can wait on it.
As for your ghug point, earlier in the D2 I called out ghug on the fact that he only D1 voted Chaqa as scum with no exceptions (at least since M57). Worcej, who has been around longer than I have, said that ghug's Chaqa push was NAI. I hadn't actually dug into the games and so while I didn't fully believe Worcej, I knew he had a better sense of context and didn't want to dismiss him out of hand. Hence my comment.
@rdr Feel free to ignore my earlier request asking where you were getting my signalling to Vecna from. Glad to see you address it yourself.
Your first paragraph may have a point, I honestly haven't given it much thought nor am I particularly interested in doing so.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:20 pmHere I disagree with you. If you killed me or Macca instead of emc you will have to push an emc kill which will be against your reads earlier. Killing them you can push me that you was already sussing before. I feel like you have already a big case prepared on me.celaph wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:51 pmYou have a point, though fear killing someone works best when they are one of the few people sussing you for a number of reasons.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:20 am
I feel really interesting how you are bringing a dead town read from N3 that point me as scum to say PE was a fearkill and you just forgot about the two last NKs that were both townreading me and scumreading you at some level. If you aplly basic logical if makes a lot more sense to fearkill closer to milo then at N3.
For one, by killing PE, you remove the vast majority of the sus that is being thrown on you and Vecna. Killing HB and EMC doesn't change the sus on me as substantially as others sus me as well. That makes fear killing a far less inviting proposition.
Secondly, because 3 of the last 4 (final 6 minus Vecna and me) sussed me, it's really easy for you to kill who you want and say that I was fearkilling. You can kill anyone besides you and I and then accuse me of killing them for that exact reason.
Side note: I think it's a stretch to say that HB scumread me when he died. I think he certainly townread you more, but N5 he didn't seem that convinced that I was scum with Vecna.
On the other side if Macca or me were scum we just kill the other and just let emc vote you.
@rdr, please respond to this especially.celaph wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:26 amI'll concede that you can't answer to why PE sussed you, but the rest of this is rather weak.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:43 amWell, I am adressing his arguments and also re-reading. I hope you can see the difference from someone trying to win a debate by fitting a narrative like he was doing and someone that is actually telling the truth. He was pushing exactly things that can´t be answered, like me being away at D1 EOD and Eden N3 scum read on me. I feel like he has this already prepared to convince you to change your mind and vote me, and unfortunetely it seems to be working.
I'm not pushing you for being away EoD1. I'm pushing you for knowing that you were going to be away EoD1 and still leaving your vote on a joke wagon without even trying to join an actual one. Your vote mattered as much as Gimix's that day and like Gimix, you actively chose to make it that way. You don't have to answer why you weren't here at EoD1, you do have to answer why you didn't vote meaningfully while you were here before EoD1. You presumably thought about who you were going to vote for so I can't see how this question is anywhere near unanswerable.
Side note: it's rather ironic to claim that you're telling the truth after you said that you sussed Vecna for flip flopping when you actually townread him for doing just that.
I appreciate the endvote, but I'd like to give rdr a chance to respond.celaph wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:51 am@macca, if you're scum here, gg well played. End this game.
##vote rdr
##end
Here is the summary on rdr, feel free to go ahead and question as you like.
- His D1 vote history, or more accurately, the lack of said voting history, is incredibly scummy.
- His push on ghug only came after town had built up a sizable wagon on ghug while I sussed ghug far earlier.
- He had a really well played bus on Vecna. The key tells here are that:
- His read on Vecna was forced and showed little indication that he actually scumread Vecna.
- His read on Vecna didn't change throughout D5 despite Vecna looking considerably better that day, nor did he even engage in the counterarguments against Vecna. Despite his poor reasons, he was confident in his choice.
- When I pushed him on why he voted Vecna, he blantantly lied saying that he sussed Vecna for flip flopping when at the time he had townread him for that same action.
I will start answering this:Macca573 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:47 am@rdr, please respond to this especially.celaph wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:26 amI'll concede that you can't answer to why PE sussed you, but the rest of this is rather weak.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:43 am
Well, I am adressing his arguments and also re-reading. I hope you can see the difference from someone trying to win a debate by fitting a narrative like he was doing and someone that is actually telling the truth. He was pushing exactly things that can´t be answered, like me being away at D1 EOD and Eden N3 scum read on me. I feel like he has this already prepared to convince you to change your mind and vote me, and unfortunetely it seems to be working.
I'm not pushing you for being away EoD1. I'm pushing you for knowing that you were going to be away EoD1 and still leaving your vote on a joke wagon without even trying to join an actual one. Your vote mattered as much as Gimix's that day and like Gimix, you actively chose to make it that way. You don't have to answer why you weren't here at EoD1, you do have to answer why you didn't vote meaningfully while you were here before EoD1. You presumably thought about who you were going to vote for so I can't see how this question is anywhere near unanswerable.
Side note: it's rather ironic to claim that you're telling the truth after you said that you sussed Vecna for flip flopping when you actually townread him for doing just that.
After this I kept reading and made more 5 posts and then my boss caled me for a really big meeting with the regional coordinators that I was expecting to end at regular time, but it took long. I just can´t use my phone there and missed the rest of the day.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 8:05 pmBy the way I am catching up, but I am in a tight schedule today at work and will probably miss EOD.
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed May 19, 2021 10:02 amWell, first of all, sorry for not being around at EOD. I get stuck at a work meeting (mainly virtual, but I was on site with my boss) and just can't use my phone.
Second, why on Earth you miskilled Chaqa again on D1 after M65? When Chaqa is a wagon on D1 he is town, you should know better.
Now, I will read the 15 pages I am behind.
If you are town you just don´t jump on your counterwagon that you think is town with more then 2 hours to EOD. This is what I meant whip flip flopping and I was around at EOD 5 where I could have easily jumped to emc wagon but stayed on Vecna.