MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Chaqa]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

WW will just hold their chomp and incriminate me, leading to an additional free kill.

[Chaqa]

So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?

Why don't you tell us who it is?

lol
Because I do not know who it is.
I do not claim to know.
But you are saying that the WW is not chomping me BECAUSE I am not really the cop. But how would the WW know that? You are drawing a picture of a WW who can read my role PM better than I can.

You are attributing a reason for the WW not to eat me that is based solely on your presupposition, that I am not the cop. By your reasoning, and based on what has been presented in the room, you or macca are the best candidates for WW.

I do not think you believe that.

You are just seeing nothing but neon lights DARG AIN'T COP.

I have not decided, yet, if I think that persistence is scummy.

Well, if you really WEREN'T the cop, the WW could have guessed dargo!cop and gotten the message that they were wrong ( i think they get one).

[Hamilton Brian]

Setup 1: 0 roleblocker/janitor (unproven)
setup 2: 0 inventor/ninja (we know this is out)
setup 3: 0 doctor/goon (unproven)
setup 4: 0 watcher/driver (we know this is out)
setup 5: 0 journalist/godfather (we know this is out)
setup 6: 0 cop/stalker (we know this is out)

So we're either in 1 or 3. No one should be claiming to be the doc, but I think it's worth it to put the RB claimants up, especially considering how none of them have been NK'ed.

I am certain we are in Setup 3 unless there is no Town Roleblocker in which case Damo is lying.

Set up 1 would require
1) Jamie lying AND
2) rdr or darg lying AND
3) Chaqa or darg lying

This is so unlikely it can be ignored.

We are in Set Up 3

Unless they’re counting on no one counter claiming. So unlikely a situation but not impossible. Let’s not discount it out of hand. However your funny numbers might be on to something.

[damo666]

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

Neither you nor Chaqa have obvtowned (sorry ghug) and no other player has obvscummed so I see you and Chaqa as the 2 best targets today.

Darg is obviously off the table as should Jamie and me be.
Bona and kgray shouldn't be contemplated because of the crucial timing of their D1 votes.
Food screams town.
Celaph, Macca, Ham and Maniac are possibles but without additional evidence I see no reason to vote any of them ahead of you or Chaqa.

I admit that I can't follow all your analysis... but I don't understand why you and Jamie are off the table but Rivera and Chaqa aren't? Is there a simple answer for that?

Either Jamie or I were roleblocked by scum so are therefore town or werewolf but not mafia, very likely town. To blindly vote me or Jamie is therefore sub optimal.

Assuming darg was RBd by scum rdr and chaqa were blocked by town so cannot be town roleblocker. They have less slots to be town than anyone else.

[kgray]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

I mean yeah, there are tons of reasons. Maybe they think they have a better shot by waiting until the endgame to whittle the players. Maybe they're waiting for more flipped scum because it's harder to guess scum roles than town roles, especially if our PRs are all dead, and they don't want mafia to have a huge upper hand. Maybe they're worried about binoculars and/or the doc. Maybe they don't want to do mafia's dirty work for them. Maybe they don't believe darg is the cop. Maybe they're waiting to take out a known role until they think they might be on the block the following day.

[kgray]

Heh, bot read that as a vote for Maniac. Sorry pal, today's not your day...I think.

##vote celaph

I'd like to press those that have been coasting to lay it on the line.

Do you think celaph is coasting the most out of everybody?

Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.

It wasn't related to celaph? But you voted for celaph and then said you wanted to press those who have been coasting... How is it not related to celaph? Did you answer who else you think is coasting?

[kgray]

I am what I am. I will stand what I said at that point in time.

Look at you picking up kgray's argument and trying to run with it.

Can you talk about that last sentence some more please?

Refers back to your statement about the dead not having good reads, or something like that. Foodcoats came at me trashing following brain, ghug. That's it.

Well I do think you're placing too much weight on dead people's reads. But I was curious about the way you were shading food for picking up my argument and am trying to figure out what you were implying. Do you think he's scum trying to encourage me to suspect you? Do you think the argument has weight?

[kgray]

While I agree that he's been coasting a little, I do not believe Celaph is the best kill for today. There are much more scummier people around.

I'll happily vote for a maniac wagon if it pops off.



(Or y'all could see the light and join me here on Dargo...)

Darg should not happen.

[damo666]

I wish there were a proven way to get through this.

Doctor claims.

Immediately wagon the 4 claimants.

See how the wagons shift at EOD.

Keep going back to the good guessing that scum have done. They haven’t swung at, and missed, any of the claimants. Why not? Were brain and ghug so “good” to be better than a shot at a claimant?

Except there ain't not no doctor!

[Hamilton Brian]

Do you think celaph is coasting the most out of everybody?

Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.

It wasn't related to celaph? But you voted for celaph and then said you wanted to press those who have been coasting... How is it not related to celaph? Did you answer who else you think is coasting?

Celaph has kind of coasted but they’re not the only one.

[damo666]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

WW will just hold their chomp and incriminate me, leading to an additional free kill.

Which we means darg survives. And if you are not ww you are still a good scum candidate.

[kgray]

Damo's analysis is so damo. And his retraction from conclusion pushes me town on him.

Agree with this, last time he was scum doing bad math he doubled down on it.

[Hamilton Brian]

Can you talk about that last sentence some more please?

Refers back to your statement about the dead not having good reads, or something like that. Foodcoats came at me trashing following brain, ghug. That's it.

Well I do think you're placing too much weight on dead people's reads. But I was curious about the way you were shading food for picking up my argument and am trying to figure out what you were implying. Do you think he's scum trying to encourage me to suspect you? Do you think the argument has weight?

Nope; I was simply referring to your words/advice to me, to them. That’s it. Conversational.

[Chaqa]

I would argue that lots of people are coasting this game.

Bona (at points), Celaph, Damo (until today basically), Macca, Maniac (early game especially), Yavu.

Seriously, why have we not flipped Macca and Yavu simply for lurking yet?

##Vote Macca

[damo666]

##vote chaqa

[Chaqa]

##vote chaqa

ya'll wildin

[kgray]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

I wish the bot would let me search all games at once because I know for a fact Damo has used math as a vote justification as scum before and been called for it.

He has done it as town too though.

[kgray]

I wish there were a proven way to get through this.

Doctor claims.

Immediately wagon the 4 claimants.

See how the wagons shift at EOD.

Keep going back to the good guessing that scum have done. They haven’t swung at, and missed, any of the claimants. Why not? Were brain and ghug so “good” to be better than a shot at a claimant?

What...? You want our PR claims to be the competing wagons at EOD? That's outrageous. I don't believe you think that's a good idea.

[kgray]

Neither you nor Chaqa have obvtowned (sorry ghug) and no other player has obvscummed so I see you and Chaqa as the 2 best targets today.

Darg is obviously off the table as should Jamie and me be.
Bona and kgray shouldn't be contemplated because of the crucial timing of their D1 votes.
Food screams town.
Celaph, Macca, Ham and Maniac are possibles but without additional evidence I see no reason to vote any of them ahead of you or Chaqa.

I admit that I can't follow all your analysis... but I don't understand why you and Jamie are off the table but Rivera and Chaqa aren't? Is there a simple answer for that?

Either Jamie or I were roleblocked by scum so are therefore town or werewolf but not mafia, very likely town. To blindly vote me or Jamie is therefore sub optimal.

Assuming darg was RBd by scum rdr and chaqa were blocked by town so cannot be town roleblocker. They have less slots to be town than anyone else.

Oh, right. Thanks.

[kgray]

Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.

It wasn't related to celaph? But you voted for celaph and then said you wanted to press those who have been coasting... How is it not related to celaph? Did you answer who else you think is coasting?

Celaph has kind of coasted but they’re not the only one.

He's the only one you've mentioned. If you want to pressure coasters, why can't you even call out some of the people you think are coasting?