MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Chaqa]

Maniac had a very interesting analysis of Day 1. I thought his conclusions were wrong, but I'm going to do a similar analysis now that we've got a little more information.

With just under three hours to go in Day 1, the vote count looked like this:
DemonRHK (3): foodcoats, Vecna, kgray
Bona (3): brainbomb, Macca, DemonRHK
Dargorygel (3): Kakarot, Bona, rdrivera
Hamilton (2): yavu, worcej
Kakarot (2): damo, dargorygel
Maniac (2): ghug, Jamiet
Kgray (1): Chaqa
Jamiet (1): Maniac
foodcoats (1): Hamilton Brian
No vote: Cavendish/Flum, celaph

The next vote is celaph voting for DemonRHK to put RHK's wagon into a 4-3 lead. Chaqa (me) then moves onto DemonRHK to put it into a 5-3 lead. I will admit, somewhat selfishly, I feel this makes me (and also celaph) look good. I know I'm town, and I have no reason to suspect celaph isn't either.

Hamilton moves from food to yavu (vanity wagons).

Brain moves from Bona to Kakarot. RDR unvotes.

DemonRHK (5): foodcoats, Vecna, kgray, celaph, Chaqa
Kakarot (3): damo, dargorygel, brainbomb
Bona (2): Macca, DemonRHK
Dargorygel (2): Kakarot, Bona
Hamilton (2): yavu, worcej
Maniac (2): ghug, Jamiet
Jamiet (1): Maniac
yavu (1): Hamilton Brian
No vote: Cavendish/Flum, rdrivera

At this point, we are roughly an hour out from EoD and DemonRHK is up by 2 votes. This is where I find things get interesting. Within a minute or two, both kgray and ghug vote for brainbomb. We now know ghug was town, but kgray left the DemonRHK wagon. Keep an eye on this space. Rivera also votes for Hamilton at this point, followed by Hamilton voting for brainbomb. Then, DemonRHK votes for KAKAROT. This vote is super important, which I'll get to in a moment. All of this brings us to:

DemonRHK (4): foodcoats, Vecna, celaph, Chaqa
Kakarot (4): damo, dargorygel, brainbomb, DemonRHK
Hamilton (3): yavu, worcej, rdrivera
brainbomb (3): kgray, ghug, Hamilton Brian
Dargorygel (2): Kakarot, Bona
Maniac (1): Jamiet
Jamiet (1): Maniac
Bona (1): Macca
No vote: Cavendish/Flum

So, when presented with three equally strong wagons (Kak, Brain, Hamilton) to choose from to form his counterwagon, DemonRHK chose Kakarot. What does this mean? I theorize (and Maniac has covered some of this previously):
1. Kakarot is not scum
2. There were other scum members who had the ability to move to the Kakarot wagon
3. There was at most 1 scum on Kakarot already (this one is pretty obvious since the wagonw as Damo, Dargo, Brain. One confTown and one basically confTown).

At this moment, this day could go any way. The last four votes are telling:
1. BONA votes for DemonRHK. To me, this vote should absolutely and demonstrably clear Bona of being scum, which is why I went to bat for him on Day 2 and sacrificed worcej. If Bona were scum, he could have voted for Kakarot. There were still 20 minutes left in the day. Hell, he could have voted for brain or Hamilton. But he put the nail in DemonRHK's coffin. Bona is town.

2. Maniac votes for Hamilton. I don't know what to make of this vote yet. It could either mean Maniac is scum with DemonRHK, but if so, wouldn't he vote for Kakarot? I'm wondering now if this isn't proof Maniac is NOT scum, and is in fact town or WW. I'll need to evaluate this later. - note for self.

3. Kgray moves from brainbomb to DemonRHK
4. Maniac moves to DemonRHK.

These last two votes had rubbed me the wrong way for a long time. Maniac's is now giving me less pause, though. I wonder. Kgray had been voting for DemonRHK earlier, left to form a wagon on brain, and came back with just two minutes left and voted DemonRHK. Does this mean she was returning to her original vote to put the finishing touches on a scum-DK, or does it mean she realized DemonRHK was going down and wanted to get town cred?

------------------------------------
CONCLUSIONS:
1. I still think scum was simply not around at EOD. RHK seemed to present an opportunity for scum to counter-wagon onto Kakarot, but it didn't happen.
2. Out of everyone on the RHK wagon, I think Kgray looks like the most likely busser.
3. Bona and Kakarot look incredibly towny based on VCA.

So, my theory on what happened is this:
1. Scum had been spread around on various wagons, and were generally gone at EOD.
2. Kgray saw RHK getting pressure built up and bailed the wagon so that RHK wouldn't die
3. RHK saw his wagon building, and moved to Kakarot, hoping his teammates would follow
4. RHK's other teammates, for whatever reason, were not there to save him, and Bona put the finishing blow on him.
5. Kgray, seeing this, jumped on as the "securing" vote to gain towncred.

So, who would this implicate?

Looking at the last time people posted before EoD (removed dead players):
Chaqa 00:01
kgray 00:01
Maniac 00:01
Bonatogether 00:05
foodcoats 00:06
rdrivera2005 00:14
Hamilton Brian 00:33
yavuzovic 00:53
Jamiet99uk 02:16
celaph 02:26
dargorygel 04:04
damo666 07:02
Macca573 08:37
Kakarroto 08:42

It appears foodcoats was around at EoD. If he was scum, he could have left the RHK wagon, though it may have been suspicious.

Macca and Damo both were long gone. Possible scum.

Celaph could also have been gone at EoD and not able to move off his scum teammate RHK... I do admit I might be giving him a pass.

It's hard to tell if Hamilton or Yavu were around for EoD. Jamie seems to not have been.

From all of this, I'm going to theorize the scumteam to be:
- DemonRHK (duh)
- Macca
- Kgray (if bussing)
- Damo
- Hamilton or Yavu

I'm probably wrong about 1-2 of these. Celaph and Food are possibly deep cover bussers, but I think it's less clear if bussing even happened.

My town core at the moment is Bona, celaph, dargo, food, Kakarot.

I'm upgrading Maniac from a scum read to a Wolf/null read.

[Chaqa]

##CALL GM

If the Janitor attempted to clean up and was roleblocked, and the person they targeted still died, would the Janitor lose their "charge," or would they still have a charge to use on a future night?

Janitor:
You are the JANITOR. Each day you must vote for a suspect. Once per game, at night, you may clean up the body of another player by PM’ing the GM with the order ##JANITOR <NAME>. At the end of the night, if that player dies, you will receive a report from the GM informing you of their role and any items that they had possessed. Their role will NOT be publicly revealed. If that player does NOT die, you may attempt to clean again in future nights. At night you can talk to the other Mafia in the Mafia QT at <LINK>. You win when the Werewolf and all of the Town have been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from happening.

Generally (there's always exceptions) a roleblock refunds an X-shot ability as the ability wasn't even "attempted".

[Hamilton Brian]

I think flipping Maniac would give us the info we need to solve most of this game. If he flips scum, we know that he was saved. If he flips WW, we've removed the WW from the PoE. If he flips town, we know that scum probably were actually either not involved in Day 3 or maybe they were making moves to save celaph or Macca.

That's a strong argument for Maniac, for sure.

Maniac flip scum = higher suspicion on Flum voters/Kakarotto from D3 and some combination of Worcej/Bona voters from D2.

Maniac flip WW...piece of the puzzle gone.

Maniac flip town...I'm still trying to work through what you're saying about that one but I need to look at the voting again.

The first two pieces I like (meaning I can understand them).

[Hamilton Brian]

Do you think celaph is coasting the most out of everybody?

Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.

Ah so you're voting celaph in order to pressure people who are not celaph? Is that correct?

Who did you mean to pressure by voting celaph? Why did you think voting celaph would pressure these people?

Oh my god!!! I am going to answer this one final time and then be done with it. I obviously haven't made myself clear to either you or kgray but I can't be arsed with it anymore since it's consuming oxygen.

It was an expression meant to suggest, "I'd like the people that are coasting to get into it and participate." Me voting Celaph at that point had NOTHING to do with that. They were not related.

Done.

[Chaqa]

I think flipping Maniac would give us the info we need to solve most of this game. If he flips scum, we know that he was saved. If he flips WW, we've removed the WW from the PoE. If he flips town, we know that scum probably were actually either not involved in Day 3 or maybe they were making moves to save celaph or Macca.

That's a strong argument for Maniac, for sure.

Maniac flip scum = higher suspicion on Flum voters/Kakarotto from D3 and some combination of Worcej/Bona voters from D2.

Maniac flip WW...piece of the puzzle gone.

Maniac flip town...I'm still trying to work through what you're saying about that one but I need to look at the voting again.

The first two pieces I like (meaning I can understand them).

Since writing that post, I've actually come around somewhat based on Day 1 that yesterday maybe was TvT (including Werewolf as "town" here for all intents and purposes).

[Hamilton Brian]

Can you talk about that last sentence some more please?

Refers back to your statement about the dead not having good reads, or something like that. Foodcoats came at me trashing following brain, ghug. That's it.

kgray's not dead. Did you have her as your kill target last night and switch to ghug and forgot and slipped here?

Either I think you're drunk or I am just going to ignore you.

[celaph]

Journalist:
You are the JOURNALIST. Each day you must vote for a suspect. Each night, you may investigate a player by PM’ing the GM with the order ##INVESTIGATE <NAME>. Your target will not be aware of your visit. At the end of the night, you will receive a copy of any & all system messages they receive at the end of the night. You win when the Werewolf and all of the Mafia have been eliminated, or nothing can stop this from happening.

The Journalist says we should kill celaph, so ##vote Celaph

What PM could ghug have intercepted that implicates celaph?

Werewolf Immunity Activated: During the night, <NAME> attempted to kill you, but was prevented from doing so by your immunity!

Maniac, how has your read of me changed since last night?

You talked substantially about how Brain's comments suggested that he had mechanical information on me, yet when ghug flipped it seems like you've instantly moved to assume that he had mechanical information on me. And when pushed on the fact that the available system messages don't support your move, you opted to double down by suggesting that I was ww, a role incompatible with your earlier read based on brain. That progression doesn't feel natural to me.

[damo666]

Except there ain't not no doctor!

I was thinking your logic was looking awful today, damo. And here we have you confirming you are scum!

Great.

Srsly damo how do you know Jamie wasn't lying the night you were allegedly blocked

I don't. But no TRB would require liars regarding nights 2 and 3 as well. I just don't buy it.

[damo666]

##VOTE damo666

Just outed yourself as not being town roleblocker.

Another reason people shouldn't be voting me or Jamie.

[Hamilton Brian]

Celaph could also have been gone at EoD and not able to move off his scum teammate RHK... I do admit I might be giving him a pass.

This is where I landed, too, when I decided that as of this point, Celaph is more town than scum. They didn't say they were going to be away for EoD. If they knew they were going to be, pretty damn risky to drop and leave the vote on a team member. I think it's being considerably assumptive to think that scum partners will take up the charge in one's absence. I think they can really only do so much. Scum!Celaph probably would have done better dropping it on a non-team member, fabricate a reason, then excuse oneself for the day.

[foodcoats]

Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.

Ah so you're voting celaph in order to pressure people who are not celaph? Is that correct?

Who did you mean to pressure by voting celaph? Why did you think voting celaph would pressure these people?

Oh my god!!! I am going to answer this one final time and then be done with it. I obviously haven't made myself clear to either you or kgray but I can't be arsed with it anymore since it's consuming oxygen.

It was an expression meant to suggest, "I'd like the people that are coasting to get into it and participate." Me voting Celaph at that point had NOTHING to do with that. They were not related.

Done.

Okay, sorry if I am not being clear.

Can you just explain to me what your current read on celaph is? Town, null or scum?

[celaph]

"we should" ... does nothing

but always saying

kgray and celaph scumteammmmmmm

if I had these strong thoughts, I'd vote the heck out of it. But alright, you do you.

Am I correct in assuming this means you don't have strong thoughts/opinions?

In defense of kak, he's been talking down about his reads all game. And I think he's been doing it in a way that's towny because he's not using that as an excuse to really avoid producing reads.

It feels a little scummy to be shading his point while ignoring it and leading the conversation another way.

[Hamilton Brian]

Okay, sorry if I am not being clear.

Can you just explain to me what your current read on celaph is? Town, null or scum?

I appreciate the apology, and I am sorry for flying off the handle toward you.

I am reading Celaph more town than scum and the proof in that, for me, is based on the D1 vote. I wrote more about in a just-previous post following Chaqa's D1 vote analysis.

[damo666]

I like Chaqa's D1 VCA

##unvote

[damo666]

##vote rdr

[foodcoats]

Okay, sorry if I am not being clear.

Can you just explain to me what your current read on celaph is? Town, null or scum?

I appreciate the apology, and I am sorry for flying off the handle toward you.

I am reading Celaph more town than scum and the proof in that, for me, is based on the D1 vote. I wrote more about in a just-previous post following Chaqa's D1 vote analysis.

Okay, so you think celaph is town based on your read of D1 votes.

Who will you vote for instead?

[dargorygel]

@chaqa
Do NOT read this question as hostile.

But can you explain why you see that kgray MIGHT be bussing... and not bona? If it is just because it was earlier, that is not enough to discount the possibility, really... is it?

[celaph]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

I think it's towny that Damo had the confidence to go to stats immediately after hearing that it's scum indicative of him. That said, the results here are fairly meaningless. For one, knowing now that town rb can't really stop the mafia kill I can totally see them self-targeting especially N1. As such, I don't think we can necessarily assume that rdr or Chaqa are not rb. Additionally, the probabilities are so close together that any read besides straight stats should supersede this.

[dargorygel]

##vote rdr

But... but... but... he seems so calmly rational to me. Which is usually/often a towntell for rdr, for me.

I am glad this is not the end of this day. I am flowing with your arguments.

[Hellenic Riot]

##CALL GM

If the Janitor attempted to clean up and was roleblocked, and the person they targeted still died, would the Janitor lose their "charge," or would they still have a charge to use on a future night?

##GM Note
The Janitor would be able to re-use their jan.