MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[foodcoats]

I think Kgray is the most likely busser. Then celaph.

Bona is to me the most towny of the voters because he was the deciding vote, and I do not think Bona would do that on Day 1 or at all

Why do you think that? What makes kgray the most likely busser and celaph the second most likely? Let's put bona to the side here. I want to win, Chaqa, and I think you're town, so I need to understand. kgray's voting at EOD1 looks just as good as bona's. Is there something she's done that makes you think she's scum?

Yeah, I explained it in my analysis of the Day 1 wagon earlier in the game. I think being the deciding vote is very player-dependent. Bona wouldn't bus there, so he's town in my book. You and I were around and didn't waiever on the wagon, so I think you're clear (as I know I am).

Kgray was on the wagon and later came back, when her alternative (to vote for Kak) would have tied it. Kgray as scum is, above all else, risk averse (I was on a team with her before, and I know this from experience). She wouldn't risk a tie to save a teammate if it might out her as well.

Celaph, I'm less sure of. It's more that he was on the wagon but seemingly (maybe?) not around (I think I remember seeing him online but I can't be 100% sure). I would look more heavily at him if kgray flips scum, because the two have had a very strong connection all game.

So for me, I want to flip Macca (obv scum), then probably Yavu. After that, I think Kgray would be my next push.

I strongly townread you, Bona, Jamie. Damo and Rivera, there could definitely be scum in there, but I think one at most.

Thanks. The thing that strikes me is that you have townread bona and scumread kgray based only on how they voted on the D1 wagon. I went back and checked and, at least as far back as D4, you do not have any other reasons stated for scumreading kgray.

I do not understand that. kgray has been incredibly involved in solving; bona is more interested in blocking attempts to solve. There are 315+ pages of text that you can look at to observe interactions between these players and the rest of the population. Is there really nothing in the other 9 phases that has influenced your perspective at all?

[rdrivera2005]

I know you were dead last game, but I feel like they played reasonably well as town. Maybe it's just the activity, but I struggle to see Macca as better than null even when trying to read favorably.

Food was arguing that killing Macca doesn't give much info making it a bad town play. I don't think that's a good way to think about things with so few kills left.

Non-janitor gives us little, though janitor helps clarify the positions of the RB'd people like Chaqa and rdr. Though that's weaker than I thought now that I'm saying it aloud.

No, food was arguing that if we're going to flip Macca eventually anyway we might as well first flip someone we think is scum and who would give us some information to keep solving before scum kill a widely-townread townie.

The janitor has nothing to do with my scumread of Chaqa or my townread of Rivera and I don't think it matters much what role scum flip. It is weak.

Is Macca your strongest scumread then?

It's really close between Macca and Bona. I think that there are more reasons to scumread Bona, but also more reasons to townread him while Macca has a few reasons to scumread and very few to townread.

I was thinking that made Macca the safer play, but rdr's rhetoric convinced me that at this point we kind of have to take some risks.

I think this is exactly where I am at this point. Macca just seems scum by lack of any townie tell that they usually does (yes, they usually do interesting posts at catch up after losing EOD). This games the catch ups are just bland.

Bona on the other side I gave a free pass until know because of the D1 voting, but at this point it´s almost impossible to have a scumteam without a busser (it will need to be Damo, Jamiet, Macca and Yav). Not impossible but I don´t have Jamiet as a likely scum.

Anyway, I keep flip floping between those two and think both are reasonable choices, so I will change my vote if Macca is the leading vote close to EOD.

[foodcoats]

No, I think they're are plenty of good reasons to be on Bona. I've argued many of them myself. My point was that many of the arguments against Macca are that they're the default vote and I'm not a fan of that as a counter argument.

celaph, what in particular makes you think Macca is scum? I see you've switched to voting bona, but I was reviewing your arguments today it seems the main reason you scumread Macca is that you scumread bona and Macca together. Do you independently scumread them, or do they need to be scum together?

As I've mentioned before I think it's likely that they're scum together, but that applies to both of them and thus is not a great reason to vote Macca over Bona so I'll look past it.

Look at something like Macca's D3. Very little there is explicitly scummy, but the signal to noise ratio is dismal. It's like they knew they had to be active, but didn't really have much to contribute.

That's a good point. I think that was Macca's busiest day, and you are right, it's a lot of noise.

I'm clipping this reads list from Macca because it could prove fruitful:

So Macca

Who are your townreads, scumreads and nullls please?

Fluminator
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
damo666
dargorygel
foodcoats
ghug
Hamilton Brian
Jamiet99uk (not really, I'm just kinda mad at him rn)
Kakarroto
kgray
Macca573
Maniac
rdrivera2005
yavuzovic

These all aren't super strong, but, made to choose, this is what I'd do.

[foodcoats]

In particular, Macca summing me, darg, Jamie and yav, from my perspective:

me, darg, Jamie and yav,


Means that if Macca is scum, yav is likely on Macca's scum team and got thrown in the blender here.

[damo666]

No, food was arguing that if we're going to flip Macca eventually anyway we might as well first flip someone we think is scum and who would give us some information to keep solving before scum kill a widely-townread townie.

The janitor has nothing to do with my scumread of Chaqa or my townread of Rivera and I don't think it matters much what role scum flip. It is weak.

Is Macca your strongest scumread then?

It's really close between Macca and Bona. I think that there are more reasons to scumread Bona, but also more reasons to townread him while Macca has a few reasons to scumread and very few to townread.

I was thinking that made Macca the safer play, but rdr's rhetoric convinced me that at this point we kind of have to take some risks.

I think this is exactly where I am at this point. Macca just seems scum by lack of any townie tell that they usually does (yes, they usually do interesting posts at catch up after losing EOD). This games the catch ups are just bland.

Bona on the other side I gave a free pass until know because of the D1 voting, but at this point it´s almost impossible to have a scumteam without a busser (it will need to be Damo, Jamiet, Macca and Yav). Not impossible but I don´t have Jamiet as a likely scum.

Anyway, I keep flip floping between those two and think both are reasonable choices, so I will change my vote if Macca is the leading vote close to EOD.

rdr if you are town there is definitely a busser and it is probably Chaqa

[celaph]

@damo, what's your opinion on Macca vs Bona? You've focused a lot on ensuring that we don't get a tie, but ultimately which wagon do you prefer?

[rdrivera2005]

It's really close between Macca and Bona. I think that there are more reasons to scumread Bona, but also more reasons to townread him while Macca has a few reasons to scumread and very few to townread.

I was thinking that made Macca the safer play, but rdr's rhetoric convinced me that at this point we kind of have to take some risks.

I think this is exactly where I am at this point. Macca just seems scum by lack of any townie tell that they usually does (yes, they usually do interesting posts at catch up after losing EOD). This games the catch ups are just bland.

Bona on the other side I gave a free pass until know because of the D1 voting, but at this point it´s almost impossible to have a scumteam without a busser (it will need to be Damo, Jamiet, Macca and Yav). Not impossible but I don´t have Jamiet as a likely scum.

Anyway, I keep flip floping between those two and think both are reasonable choices, so I will change my vote if Macca is the leading vote close to EOD.

rdr if you are town there is definitely a busser and it is probably Chaqa

If you are town we probably have more then one busser.

[celaph]

I think I might be partially to blame for this, but it's disconcerting how little Yavu has been brought up today and how little he's participated. I don't think he's the best kill today, but it makes me worried that the mafia seem happy to let him be inactive.

[Chaqa]

Why do you think that? What makes kgray the most likely busser and celaph the second most likely? Let's put bona to the side here. I want to win, Chaqa, and I think you're town, so I need to understand. kgray's voting at EOD1 looks just as good as bona's. Is there something she's done that makes you think she's scum?

Yeah, I explained it in my analysis of the Day 1 wagon earlier in the game. I think being the deciding vote is very player-dependent. Bona wouldn't bus there, so he's town in my book. You and I were around and didn't waiever on the wagon, so I think you're clear (as I know I am).

Kgray was on the wagon and later came back, when her alternative (to vote for Kak) would have tied it. Kgray as scum is, above all else, risk averse (I was on a team with her before, and I know this from experience). She wouldn't risk a tie to save a teammate if it might out her as well.

Celaph, I'm less sure of. It's more that he was on the wagon but seemingly (maybe?) not around (I think I remember seeing him online but I can't be 100% sure). I would look more heavily at him if kgray flips scum, because the two have had a very strong connection all game.

So for me, I want to flip Macca (obv scum), then probably Yavu. After that, I think Kgray would be my next push.

I strongly townread you, Bona, Jamie. Damo and Rivera, there could definitely be scum in there, but I think one at most.

Thanks. The thing that strikes me is that you have townread bona and scumread kgray based only on how they voted on the D1 wagon. I went back and checked and, at least as far back as D4, you do not have any other reasons stated for scumreading kgray.

I do not understand that. kgray has been incredibly involved in solving; bona is more interested in blocking attempts to solve. There are 315+ pages of text that you can look at to observe interactions between these players and the rest of the population. Is there really nothing in the other 9 phases that has influenced your perspective at all?

Not particularly. There may be more to go on once Macca flips.

If Macca is town we're screwed regardless, so I'm not going to put too much effort into it until I have to. I'm quite confident of my reads on Macca and BOna, though,

[Chaqa]

To clarify: I've had a lot of things I've made notes of in my head throughout the game, but I'm relatively lazy and don't feel like putting effort into a proper case until after we flip Macca. It might seem lazy, but any world where Macca is town is a world where we're not going to win anyway, because that means the entire scum team is in deep cover.

[damo666]

@damo, what's your opinion on Macca vs Bona? You've focused a lot on ensuring that we don't get a tie, but ultimately which wagon do you prefer?

I prefer Macca principally because I have the nagging doubt about Bona due to the timing of his Demon vote.

[rdrivera2005]

I think I might be partially to blame for this, but it's disconcerting how little Yavu has been brought up today and how little he's participated. I don't think he's the best kill today, but it makes me worried that the mafia seem happy to let him be inactive.

If we flip scum today, then Yav is a good choice to be a wagon tomorrow (specially if we flip Macca scum). Now it´s just too late to start another wagon.

[yavuzovic]

I'm pretty sure we are currently in S v S territory wit Yav panicking any deepthreat ots.

Can you clarify what you're saying about Yav?

There were a couple of typos

It should read [paraphrasing for clarity]

I think we are at scum v scum, Yav is panicking (as third man) and we have a deep threat as the outstanding 4th person.

I was just saying it's too optimistic of you to think both wagons are scum. Scums sometimes bus but if one of their members is the top wagon and thry don't want to vote that top wagon, they would vote for someone else, not another scum. Maybe I can't express what is is my head. Mafia would bus the scum on the lead but wouldn't create a second scum wagon against the first.

[Jamiet99uk]

Yo, I'm here, briefly. What's occurring?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Macca why are you still on Unvote?

[yavuzovic]

I call on town Macca voters to either

A switch to Bona
Or
B write an impassioned defence of Bona


We must consolidate. We cannot afford to tie.

Okay hear,
I could consider the case on Bona but if I switch now, it will look too scummy. Normally I wouldn't mind that and go that way but we will lose if I go for Bona because you will kill me the next day. Also Bona sounds townier. I will probably stay on Macca.

[rdrivera2005]

I call on town Macca voters to either

A switch to Bona
Or
B write an impassioned defence of Bona


We must consolidate. We cannot afford to tie.

Okay hear,
I could consider the case on Bona but if I switch now, it will look too scummy. Normally I wouldn't mind that and go that way but we will lose if I go for Bona because you will kill me the next day. Also Bona sounds townier. I will probably stay on Macca.

I don´t understand your reasoning. Town will kill you if you move to Bona and Bona flips scum? Why? And if he flips town there is no tomorrow.
Do you think Bona is scummier then Macca?

[foodcoats]

VOTE BONA

MACCA WILL DIE ANYWAY IF THEY END ON UNVOTE

IT'S LIKE 6 AM IN OZ

[foodcoats]

TWO FOR ONE SALE

SCUM ON FIRE

[foodcoats]

I'll hammer bona for the double right now

I have no doubts

I am pure