MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[foodcoats]

I'd prefer we don't END, FWIW. We need to hear as much as we can from everyone, and I'd like to use the time to re-read as much as possible. Bona made a fair point that my POE seems overly-final and I should include my marginal reads in the list, and I'd like to take my time to do this.

[Chaqa]

I'd prefer we don't END, FWIW. We need to hear as much as we can from everyone, and I'd like to use the time to re-read as much as possible. Bona made a fair point that my POE seems overly-final and I should include my marginal reads in the list, and I'd like to take my time to do this.

I don't think anyone is arguing to end today, more to end maybe an hour before EoD tomorrow so we don't give scum an opportunity to rock the boat.

[celaph]

This makes me worried that we have it wrong and Damo wants us to end before we change our minds.

If I were scum would I be that daft?

It's a good tactic from townpov if you like at the current votes.

If Bona and Macca are both scum Bona could self vote, get a tie and a scum victory.

We need a minimum of 6 votes on one wagon excluding the top 2 wagons themselves.

My end vote is designed to concentrate minds, force the issue ad push scum into a corner.

It's 6-4 at the moment. After a tie and a NK we're at 5-4, still winnable.

[celaph]

Least in favor of killing
food
kgray
damo
Jamie
rdr
Chaqa
yavu
Bona
Macca
Most in favor of killing

If Macca's town here I think we've just lost. There is no way I see them surviving 4 days. We have very little D1-2 to work off. Their catchup D3 was poor. Their push on Darg was bizarre. So little is town here.

For many of the reasons that myself and others have called out, I think Bona looks particularly suspect. The two parts that are sticking out for me are their interactions with Macca and their thought process around the cop soft claim.

Chaqa is falling on my list given the way he's defending Bona. It doesn't feel natural.

Rdr has steadily become townier as the game has gone on. I agree with kgray's argument that his play has felt really natural.

Jamie's looked a lot townier ever since the Maniac vote and I agree with Chaqa's comments here that his play regarding the ww felt both natural and towny, as if he had little to fear.

This is an excellent post.

In addition to Macca having to be scum for town to win I think food has to be town for us to win as his survival looks as inevitable as Macca's demise.

Town

Damo
Food celaph
rdr
Jamie
Kgray
Bona Chaqa
Yav
Macca

Mafia

I can't see Macca or Yav surviving so let's get rid of them first. We can sort the more dubious pair later.

If Macca or Yav are town then well played scum.

I think Bona may well be scum but I'm not convinced enough for him to be the right kill today. I will only vote Bona to save anybody above him in my list.

I have to agree with you both in most points. I just don't understand how on Earth you could put Jamiet so low on your list. I see very little scenarios where scum Jamiet deals with HB the way he did.

I think flipping Macca is the way to go. If we don't lose we will have one scum role more to analyze data and also one more town (scum NK). Does someone have Macca out of his current 4 scum team bet?

Yeah, Macca is out of Bona's POE. And the fact that he hasn't really tried to defend Macca either is one of the main reasons I'm scumreading them.

Because your d1 posts felt not town and they have barely improved since.

Okay, so let's say you're right.

In addition to me, who are the three remaining scum?

Can you please give us your four and your reasoning?

My POE (in no particular order) is you, kgray, celaph, Chaqa, rdr.

You for a persistent inability to be townie for more than 5 minutes at a time.

Kgray for bending over backwards to defend celaph in weird ways.

Kgray's defenses don't really make sense unless celaph is scum. Celaph also (as has been pointed out by others) hasn't put out the sort of reads that he did as town before. He did some d1 but not afterwards.

Chaqa has acted townie but I just can't get over the feeling that he might be scum. He fooled a lot of people last time as scum doing things not entirely dissimilar from what he's doing now.

rdr hasn't felt as probing or plain smart (I would say sharp but that is overused now) this game in a way similar to how Demon wasn't.

[Jamiet99uk]

This makes me worried that we have it wrong and Damo wants us to end before we change our minds.

If I were scum would I be that daft?

It's a good tactic from townpov if you like at the current votes.

If Bona and Macca are both scum Bona could self vote, get a tie and a scum victory.

We need a minimum of 6 votes on one wagon excluding the top 2 wagons themselves.

My end vote is designed to concentrate minds, force the issue ad push scum into a corner.

It's 6-4 at the moment. After a tie and a NK we're at 5-4, still winnable.

Problem is, scum will kill me for certain tonight, so if that happened, tomorrow, you'd still be none the wiser about which of Bona / Macca to choose, in the event one of them happens to be town.

[Jamiet99uk]

You know, actually, maybe it is better to tie it, and force scum to remove me from the game, so that you can decide the final outcome without me.

[celaph]

If I were scum would I be that daft?

It's a good tactic from townpov if you like at the current votes.

If Bona and Macca are both scum Bona could self vote, get a tie and a scum victory.

We need a minimum of 6 votes on one wagon excluding the top 2 wagons themselves.

My end vote is designed to concentrate minds, force the issue ad push scum into a corner.

It's 6-4 at the moment. After a tie and a NK we're at 5-4, still winnable.

Problem is, scum will kill me for certain tonight, so if that happened, tomorrow, you'd still be none the wiser about which of Bona / Macca to choose, in the event one of them happens to be town.

I totally agree, tying is definitely bad. My point is that Damo shouldn't feel a need to end vote because even if Bona managed to tie it, we could still win and Bona's outed himself as conf scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Problem is, scum will kill me for certain tonight, so if that happened, tomorrow, you'd still be none the wiser about which of Bona / Macca to choose, in the event one of them happens to be town.

I totally agree, tying is definitely bad. My point is that Damo shouldn't feel a need to end vote because even if Bona managed to tie it, we could still win and Bona's outed himself as conf scum.

^ This is a townie post.

[yavuzovic]

Actually considering how Macca is scumread with me and I know I'm town, I started to doubt the case on Macca. Maybe it's just an easy push for the scum. But if I change my vote, it won't only be a less scummy candidate, but I will look scummy too. Talking to someone (damo I guess) I said I'm willing to votekill Macca. I don't scumread them any less and I still can't see anyone else worth to kill more than Macca (rivera sounds less scummy than before). I just don't want them to be scumread like I am.

[yavuzovic]

Because the way you are playing remembers scum Damo. I can´t identify with anything you say. Your post just seems to make sense when you talk about mechanics and this is a strong scum tell.
You arbitrary created a POE that´s me, Yav and Flum, which doesn´t make any sense (like you want to look like town Damo that makes a lot of assumptions) and you left of the hook a lot of scummy players like Bona or Macca. And then you give a pass to Flum because he is willing to vote me or Yav, which even less sense.

And last of it, OMGUS.

This is from rdr on D2.

At this point I'm very curious to know what other players think of damo.

I know damo is very math-oriented, but I am completely blown away that damo is not reading the game, just the votes.

I remember Damo looking really good roughly D3 and 4. His reads before then were rather lackluster and his focus on the numbers is concerning, but I have him as likely town and a bad kill for tomorrow. Also, while it is totally possible that scum held RB to clear him, it wouldn't be my first thought as scum and so I think there is a good chance he was honest there.

I agree with this. At N1, all town PRs were alive and the scum didn't know Vecna was PR. I can see the point of holding the RB or using it on Vecna to claim later, and it makes sense but I think it's more likely to be used.

[yavuzovic]

i think it’s important to remember that Kakarroto fooled scum into NKing him. I thought Kak’s claim looked bizarre and scummy (why, why, why would cop ever claim at night when they were a scumlean of several players and there was an extant believed claim?) and I think a level headed team would have killed darg and RBd kak in case and benefited from the confusion, because... that move by Kak would destabilize town if he hadn’t been killed. In particular Chaqa was online and interacting with Kak’s claim and I don’t think scum!Chaqa makes sense there... I think chaqa is savvy enough to stay the course there if he’s scum, because Kak’s claim was so outlandish.

Food I think the best time to claim informative PR is the last minutes of the night. I remember peterlund doing that in a game (I don't remember which) and dying in minutes. Kak intentionally outed it a bit too early for a real PR but if you're PR and you have some important information to reveal, it may be a good idea to reveal it minutes before the EoN. The scum wouldn't have time to change their actions (which was not the case here because Kak was early) but if they somehow set their kill on you, you wouldn't being the information to your grave. Scum mlght have an idea about your role or killing randomly, if they hit you before you reveal (which will happen during the night), you can't reveal your scans.

[yavuzovic]

macca and bona interacted tonight in a way that was the most obvious scum theatre I puked. Macca is getting ready to bus bona.

Do you really think the top wagons are both scum? Well it was the night phase when you wrote that message but these two were already the top scumreads.

[yavuzovic]

Actually I take back my words. Town didn't claim an item, scum might be hiding an item but odds are lower than Vecna being roleblocked. I can't say it for sure but it's possible that Vecna was RBed and damo is lying.

[rdrivera2005]

I'd prefer we don't END, FWIW. We need to hear as much as we can from everyone, and I'd like to use the time to re-read as much as possible. Bona made a fair point that my POE seems overly-final and I should include my marginal reads in the list, and I'd like to take my time to do this.

I don't think anyone is arguing to end today, more to end maybe an hour before EoD tomorrow so we don't give scum an opportunity to rock the boat.

I have to agree with Chaqa here but I also don't think scum will wait until last hour to try to push a misskill at it will be too obvious and they have 4 shots.

Anyway, we should consolidate earlier and avoid any last minute shenanigans.

[kgray]

Rip Dargo.

I think at this point I can hardly see a team without Macca. I have less confidence on Bona, but I understand the reasons to vote him. I am also willing to vote Yav.

My guess for the scum team is Macca, Yav, one of Bona or Celaph and one deep threat between Chaqa, Damo and Kgray. Right now I would bet on Damo that is holding just on his RB claim.

##vote Macca

I get this, and mostly agree, but the problem with "can't see a team without Macca" is that it's based on crossing "townie" people off of the POEs. And if we're wrong about those people being town, then defaulting to Macca just because they didn't make the "townreads" list could end with us losing. It just makes me uncomfortable and I've been tricked by similar situations before.

Did you disagree with my point about Damo caring about TvT wagons? Chaqa is my best guess for the deep threat.

[yavuzovic]

@yavu would love to hear your thoughts on the state of affairs.

I'm trying to give opinions as I read. I think voting out of Macca is dangerous today. They haven't only been scummy, but also their wagon was saved multiple times. I defended them on D3 so it may not be something I have right to criticize. But I also started to find Bona scummy. I don't have a solid reason but his words seemed scummy. I would say they are both scum but this is highly unlikely. 40% of the voters are scum, their influence wouldn't let this. I will stcik with Macca I guess.

[kgray]

##vote bona

I think it should be him or yav

Explain me again why you are so sure about Celaph being town?

I'm not so sure, but I think it's likely. The way he voted Demon when Demon's wagon was gaining momentum was decisive. Looking back through his D1 ISO, he was mildly scumreading Bona and could have voted Bona to make him the lead over Demon. Instead, he called out Demon's post for talking about him but leaving with a weak read. I don't see why scum would call attention to their teammate's read of them like that. And Demon's wagon had more recent momentum than Bona's, so was more likely to stay relevant. I don't think celaph and Bona are scum together, so scum!celaph choosing to vote scum!Demon there over town!Bona doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I'm also still bothered by the D2 celaph wagon and how many votes it got with little resistance. If celaph is scum, why does nobody besides me defend him? Surely scum don't want two dead teammates in two days. I am going to look deeper into the mid-D2 wagons tonight, because we had celaph, Bona, damo and Rivera all being viable.

[rdrivera2005]

Rip Dargo.

I think at this point I can hardly see a team without Macca. I have less confidence on Bona, but I understand the reasons to vote him. I am also willing to vote Yav.

My guess for the scum team is Macca, Yav, one of Bona or Celaph and one deep threat between Chaqa, Damo and Kgray. Right now I would bet on Damo that is holding just on his RB claim.

##vote Macca

I get this, and mostly agree, but the problem with "can't see a team without Macca" is that it's based on crossing "townie" people off of the POEs. And if we're wrong about those people being town, then defaulting to Macca just because they didn't make the "townreads" list could end with us losing. It just makes me uncomfortable and I've been tricked by similar situations before.

Did you disagree with my point about Damo caring about TvT wagons? Chaqa is my best guess for the deep threat.

I understand your view, but I can't see other options. Bona is also an easy miskill to push if he is town. Do you want to push for a deep threat today? I don't see any good result from it. Bona and Macca are both good choices but I can see Bona being town more easily.

And I still want to hear from you why you are so sure about Celaph being town?

[rdrivera2005]

Rip Dargo.

I think at this point I can hardly see a team without Macca. I have less confidence on Bona, but I understand the reasons to vote him. I am also willing to vote Yav.

My guess for the scum team is Macca, Yav, one of Bona or Celaph and one deep threat between Chaqa, Damo and Kgray. Right now I would bet on Damo that is holding just on his RB claim.

##vote Macca

I get this, and mostly agree, but the problem with "can't see a team without Macca" is that it's based on crossing "townie" people off of the POEs. And if we're wrong about those people being town, then defaulting to Macca just because they didn't make the "townreads" list could end with us losing. It just makes me uncomfortable and I've been tricked by similar situations before.

Did you disagree with my point about Damo caring about TvT wagons? Chaqa is my best guess for the deep threat.

I understand your view, but I can't see other options. Bona is also an easy miskill to push if he is town. Do you want to push for a deep threat today? I don't see any good result from it. Bona and Macca are both good choices but I can see Bona being town more easily.

And I still want to hear from you why you are so sure about Celaph being town?

Cross-posted.

[rdrivera2005]

@yavu would love to hear your thoughts on the state of affairs.

I'm trying to give opinions as I read. I think voting out of Macca is dangerous today. They haven't only been scummy, but also their wagon was saved multiple times. I defended them on D3 so it may not be something I have right to criticize. But I also started to find Bona scummy. I don't have a solid reason but his words seemed scummy. I would say they are both scum but this is highly unlikely. 40% of the voters are scum, their influence wouldn't let this. I will stcik with Macca I guess.

This is bad reasoning. I think today is the day where bussing and distancing makes more sense. It won't surprise me if both Macca and Bona are scum.