MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

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Hamilton Brian
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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5821 Post by Hamilton Brian » Sun May 02, 2021 3:35 am

I still think that you kill me, even with me aligning with town, that town is screwed. At least run counter wagons so there’s info. This END BS should be morally embarrassing.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5822 Post by damo666 » Sun May 02, 2021 9:12 am

##unend

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5823 Post by damo666 » Sun May 02, 2021 9:29 am

Let's examine not killing HB.

Obviously the risk is we miskill and lose but that could happen anytime .

We know darg and I are town. So we are guessing 4/9 44.44%.

If we kill HB and either darg or I Nkd it is still 4/9.

Say we stop voting HB and hope we kill scum.

HB then attempts to consume the runner up.

If he fails we have extra info (but it may influence us the wrong way if he tries to eat scum and just got the role wrong).

If he is correct he gets dk immunity and then he has a 50 50 guess on remaining scum roles to win game.

And not that I think he would do this but he could renege on the deal and eat me or darg tonight anyway.

Conclusion:

As I previously thought we cannot afford to not kill HB. It just gives him the opportunity to win the game and little in the way of advantage to us.

##end

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5824 Post by damo666 » Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am

Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5825 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sun May 02, 2021 9:55 am

damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?
Let's be completely honest. We have almost no chance to win this game. If one of Macca or Yav is town the chance is town the chance is zero, because they won't survive 4 days in a row.

The problem with keeping HB alive is that he can't really help town. Scum will just RB him and kill a town. And if for some miracle we start killing scum, the scumbos can throw the game to him.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5826 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sun May 02, 2021 9:57 am

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 3:35 am
I still think that you kill me, even with me aligning with town, that town is screwed. At least run counter wagons so there’s info. This END BS should be morally embarrassing.
HB, show us a plan on how keeping you alive improves town chances. Consider scum can RB you and kill a town and consider the numbers.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5827 Post by Macca573 » Sun May 02, 2021 10:27 am

damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:29 am
Let's examine not killing HB.

Obviously the risk is we miskill and lose but that could happen anytime .

We know darg and I are town. So we are guessing 4/9 44.44%.

If we kill HB and either darg or I Nkd it is still 4/9.

Say we stop voting HB and hope we kill scum.

HB then attempts to consume the runner up.

If he fails we have extra info (but it may influence us the wrong way if he tries to eat scum and just got the role wrong).

If he is correct he gets dk immunity and then he has a 50 50 guess on remaining scum roles to win game.

And not that I think he would do this but he could renege on the deal and eat me or darg tonight anyway.

Conclusion:

As I previously thought we cannot afford to not kill HB. It just gives him the opportunity to win the game and little in the way of advantage to us.

##end
This is what I have been thinking. Thank you for putting into math and smart people words.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5828 Post by yavuzovic » Sun May 02, 2021 10:42 am

##end

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5829 Post by yavuzovic » Sun May 02, 2021 10:54 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:55 am
damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?
Let's be completely honest. We have almost no chance to win this game. If one of Macca or Yav is town the chance is town the chance is zero, because they won't survive 4 days in a row.

The problem with keeping HB alive is that he can't really help town. Scum will just RB him and kill a town. And if for some miracle we start killing scum, the scumbos can throw the game to him.
I know I'm not mafia, so I will go after Macca tomorrow. If we successfully kill Macca tomorrow, I will try to show you how willing I was to kill them since days. If I can convince you and once we reveal more scum information, we can have a chance.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5830 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 02, 2021 11:23 am

foodcoats wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:17 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
I mean, bona just flubbed his story about why he was shading darg’s cop claim, and I’m pretty sure he’s offered no positive analysis the whole game?

Bona is also definitely scum.
I agree, Bona is scum. His story is weak.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5831 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 02, 2021 11:24 am

damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?
It is not.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5832 Post by foodcoats » Sun May 02, 2021 12:00 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:55 am
damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?
Let's be completely honest. We have almost no chance to win this game. If one of Macca or Yav is town the chance is town the chance is zero, because they won't survive 4 days in a row.

The problem with keeping HB alive is that he can't really help town. Scum will just RB him and kill a town. And if for some miracle we start killing scum, the scumbos can throw the game to him.
NO

WE'RE GOING TO DO THIS

LET'S FUCKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5833 Post by damo666 » Sun May 02, 2021 12:07 pm

I get this nagging feeling food is the deep threat

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5834 Post by damo666 » Sun May 02, 2021 12:08 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:24 am
damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?
It is not.
Well what about Chaqa in a team that does not include you?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5835 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sun May 02, 2021 12:14 pm

damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:08 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:24 am
damo666 wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 9:35 am


Is this Chaqa in a Chaqa/yav/rdr/Jamie scum team seizing an unresistable opportunity to win the game?
It is not.
Well what about Chaqa in a team that does not include you?
I think Chaqa is possibly scum, yes.

My scumreads currently are Bonatogether, Macca, and then it's two out of Yav/Chaqa/Rdrivera/Celaph.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5836 Post by foodcoats » Sun May 02, 2021 12:17 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:18 am
foodcoats wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:17 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 11:33 pm
Basically seems like we’re locked into Macca tomorrow. At this point I don’t see how they aren’t scum. I’m less sure after that.
I mean, bona just flubbed his story about why he was shading darg’s cop claim, and I’m pretty sure he’s offered no positive analysis the whole game?

Bona is also definitely scum.
What do you mean flubbed?
I mean that you gave a rash, ill-considered answer that contradicts your iso and is untownie.

Let's look at what happens. Jamie had asked as below, and you responded thusly:
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 6:47 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 6:46 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 6:44 pm


I'm not going to spend every damn hour on mafia. I have other commitments.
Can you please explain your view on darg. With a sensible explanation you can become strongtown
I was trying to softclaim cop to get scum to kill me but then kak went and did the same thing but more.
So, when you finally answer what your position on darg was, you say you were softing cop to draw the NK - nothing more.

I then asked how that could make sense, given the way you attacked darg EOD1, where you made a case that suggested you were ignorant of there even being a cop - which obviously would tell the scum team you were NOT cop - and you responded thusly:
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:03 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:02 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:43 pm
I reread all the major wagons (Demon, HB, Kak, and brain), and I rate them as such, towniest to least:
HB (I just don't see anything hugely out of place here, but he's not helping much either)
brain (I think the Macca thing from him was towny but he overreacted, in my view, and is thinking a lot (perhaps too much) about the werewolf - kinda scummy but I don't want to put him as scum yet)
Kak (just plain weird, kinda seems like a bus on darg? I dunno how to read him)
Demon (playing very subpar and his only vote has been unexplained in a real way)

##vote Demon

I'll bet darg is scum who realized that he fucked up in a big way and is now cashing in the open PR slot to get out but that wagon looks dead.
Bona, you were softing cop but you suggested there was no cop role?
I changed my position over time but didn't say it so I could draw the nk.
Okay, you changed your position over time. But how? Darg then asked about this to clarify, and you responded:
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:23 pm
dargorygel wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:14 pm
Ok. Bona... This has been a copclaim day. I was surprised that kak claimed, in the light of Maniac (and me.) I suppose it's the only game I town. I plan to ask kak his process of thought. Later.

But I can ask you now. Did you believe me at first? When did you? When did you start to plan this? Can you help me understand?
a) No.

b) End of night 3 I think.

c) I just thought "hey this would be good since a bunch of PRs have bitten the dust."
So, what happens EON3/start of D4? The last thing you say on N3 about darg is:
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:52 am
ghug wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:48 am


Why is it moronic? Is it cause you won't be townclear anymore?
No, I'm all for that.

It's because 999,999 times out of a million, that's someone mindlessly saying the wrong thing, not slipping.

Even if darg is lying, he's been "the cop" for 75% of the time he's been the cop if he's the actual cop. It's equally engrained.
But he doesn't claim what you said here - he claims that it's a typo.
So at EON4, you are spewing that you are convinced darg is not cop because of a slip. This doesn't at all look like you are softing; it actually looks like you are hunting (just... not very well, because you are not considering anyone else's arguments about the scenario). So how did you expect scum to see you as "softing?"

Now, if we look at the beginning of D4, you say a bunch of things about how darg is scum - too many to include here, but I encourage all townies to look at Bona's D4. You do not in any way seem to be softing cop with any of the statements you make; rather, you make arguments about why darg is scum for claiming cop as he did on D1 and then for making a typo and writing "doc" instead of "cop." So in other words, you still seem to be hunting for scum - but you continue to ignore everyone else giving you reasons to believe darg is town.

My point is, it NEVER looks like you are softing cop. It looks like you are tunneled madly on darg. You also don't actually seem to evolve your position as you claim; rather, you just tunnel harder (while, again, ignoring contrary evidence).

So, why do I say you "flubbed" your case? I say that because Jamie and damo forced your hand to reply to a question you were avoiding, and you answered too quickly without looking back at what you had said and done - thus creating inconsistencies. You also answered in a totally untownie way; Jamie asked, "Can you please explain your view on darg. With a sensible explanation you can become strongtown;" and the ONLY thing you replied was that you were trying to draw the NK. If you were actually town, you would've seen what Jamie was actually asking and explain "At the end of N3, such-and-such evidence convinced me." Instead, you got defensive and came up with a bad answer that contradicts your ISO.

@Macca @celaph @rdr @yavu

Please tell us what you think of my case.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5837 Post by foodcoats » Sun May 02, 2021 12:44 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:45 pm
DemonRHK wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:40 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:38 pm
What's weird to me is how Demon has been posting but hasn't addressed the elephant in the room. Why would that be, Demon? I think most players, being the lead wagon, would offer some sort of defense. Maybe? :nmr:
What elephant? That I'm catching a ton of votes? People think I'm a shit player and I'm an easy miskill.
I've heard you're a good player (and you showed this in our last game), which is why your sudden apparent incompetence is shocking to me.
I want to come back to this statement bona made on D1. "Your sudden apparent incompetence is shocking to me." That's such a strange thing for town to say. Incompetence? Town are... naturally incompetent. (I think the entire worcej wagon was town, for example.) This seems like a scum slip to me: Bona is angry at his teammate.

In his final reads post D1 where he evaluates the wagons and votes Demon, he still seems to scumread darg, brain and Kakarroto more than Demon. The way he ends up on Demon seems townie at first, which is why I've been townreading bona all this time, but when you really look at it, there's no sensible progression for town!bona to vote for Demon there, based on what he says at the moment and what he has said throughout the day about Demon (which is just calling him "incompetent"). His strongest scumread is of darg (and he has stated he really thought darg was scum at this point) and he thinks Kak was bussing him; he also thinks brain is scummy (and actually called brain scummy earlier in the game). Both of these are viable wagons when he moved to Demon (it was 4/4/3), but he votes for Demon for playing "subpar." He has also shown he loves ties, so why didn't he want to tie it at 4/4/4 with his strongest scumread, brainbomb?

I think this is scum-logic, and even the word comes from the mind of a scum: he was mad at Demon for being "incompetent," catching votes D1 and wanted to punish him.
Bonatogether wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:32 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:25 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:11 pm
You can't actually agree and then not change your behavior without giving a reason as to why I'm still a good wagon.
To keep a two-voter rather than switching to Macca and generating a new one-vote wagon. Having some non-vanity wagons will help drive interesting play that can be analyzed later.

How would you conclude your disagreement with brainbomb? Do you think he is scummy concocting reasons to vote Macca - and then flipping that on yourself? Or do you think he's just misguided/incorrect town?

If you don't think brainbomb is scummy, who do you currently scumread? Who do you confidently townread? Don't worry, I understand it is the beginning of the game and those reads can be hazy and mutable. I'm just curious where you are at, based on the arguments flying around right now. Is there someone you would vote for right now?
That's better, but feels concocted, imo.

I think brain is mildly scummy for it the whole thing.

I scumread you too, and I'm eyeing Chaqa as well.
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:34 am
foodcoats wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:17 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:05 am


I don't like this post because it's unnecessary and unprompted elaboration on someone else's kinda old comment. Bad vibes, really
Bona, you’ve pointed out a lot of things you don’t like. What have you really liked so far? Who do you townread?
I like celaph, kgray, and ghug so far. Most people are only slightly one way or the other so far, but they stand out to me.
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:43 pm
I reread all the major wagons (Demon, HB, Kak, and brain), and I rate them as such, towniest to least:
HB (I just don't see anything hugely out of place here, but he's not helping much either)
brain (I think the Macca thing from him was towny but he overreacted, in my view, and is thinking a lot (perhaps too much) about the werewolf - kinda scummy but I don't want to put him as scum yet)
Kak (just plain weird, kinda seems like a bus on darg? I dunno how to read him)
Demon (playing very subpar and his only vote has been unexplained in a real way)

##vote Demon

I'll bet darg is scum who realized that he fucked up in a big way and is now cashing in the open PR slot to get out but that wagon looks dead.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5838 Post by foodcoats » Sun May 02, 2021 12:49 pm

I'm actually going to restate that last huge post much more simply:

D1, Bona:

1. Scumreads brain for arguing that Macca's opening posts are alignment-indicative;
2. Scumreads darg for claiming cop the way he did;
3. Scumreads Kak for potentially bussing scum!darg;
4. Scumreads Demon for being "incompetent" and "subpar;"
5. Votes for Demon when Kak or brain were also viable wagons.

Is this townie wording, logic and play?

I do not think so.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5839 Post by Macca573 » Sun May 02, 2021 12:50 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:17 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:18 am
foodcoats wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 12:17 am


I mean, bona just flubbed his story about why he was shading darg’s cop claim, and I’m pretty sure he’s offered no positive analysis the whole game?

Bona is also definitely scum.
What do you mean flubbed?
I mean that you gave a rash, ill-considered answer that contradicts your iso and is untownie.

Let's look at what happens. Jamie had asked as below, and you responded thusly:
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 6:47 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 6:46 pm


Can you please explain your view on darg. With a sensible explanation you can become strongtown
I was trying to softclaim cop to get scum to kill me but then kak went and did the same thing but more.
So, when you finally answer what your position on darg was, you say you were softing cop to draw the NK - nothing more.

I then asked how that could make sense, given the way you attacked darg EOD1, where you made a case that suggested you were ignorant of there even being a cop - which obviously would tell the scum team you were NOT cop - and you responded thusly:
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:03 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:02 pm


Bona, you were softing cop but you suggested there was no cop role?
I changed my position over time but didn't say it so I could draw the nk.
Okay, you changed your position over time. But how? Darg then asked about this to clarify, and you responded:
Bonatogether wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:23 pm
dargorygel wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 7:14 pm
Ok. Bona... This has been a copclaim day. I was surprised that kak claimed, in the light of Maniac (and me.) I suppose it's the only game I town. I plan to ask kak his process of thought. Later.

But I can ask you now. Did you believe me at first? When did you? When did you start to plan this? Can you help me understand?
a) No.

b) End of night 3 I think.

c) I just thought "hey this would be good since a bunch of PRs have bitten the dust."
So, what happens EON3/start of D4? The last thing you say on N3 about darg is:
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:52 am
ghug wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 am


No, I'm all for that.

It's because 999,999 times out of a million, that's someone mindlessly saying the wrong thing, not slipping.

Even if darg is lying, he's been "the cop" for 75% of the time he's been the cop if he's the actual cop. It's equally engrained.
But he doesn't claim what you said here - he claims that it's a typo.
So at EON4, you are spewing that you are convinced darg is not cop because of a slip. This doesn't at all look like you are softing; it actually looks like you are hunting (just... not very well, because you are not considering anyone else's arguments about the scenario). So how did you expect scum to see you as "softing?"

Now, if we look at the beginning of D4, you say a bunch of things about how darg is scum - too many to include here, but I encourage all townies to look at Bona's D4. You do not in any way seem to be softing cop with any of the statements you make; rather, you make arguments about why darg is scum for claiming cop as he did on D1 and then for making a typo and writing "doc" instead of "cop." So in other words, you still seem to be hunting for scum - but you continue to ignore everyone else giving you reasons to believe darg is town.

My point is, it NEVER looks like you are softing cop. It looks like you are tunneled madly on darg. You also don't actually seem to evolve your position as you claim; rather, you just tunnel harder (while, again, ignoring contrary evidence).

So, why do I say you "flubbed" your case? I say that because Jamie and damo forced your hand to reply to a question you were avoiding, and you answered too quickly without looking back at what you had said and done - thus creating inconsistencies. You also answered in a totally untownie way; Jamie asked, "Can you please explain your view on darg. With a sensible explanation you can become strongtown;" and the ONLY thing you replied was that you were trying to draw the NK. If you were actually town, you would've seen what Jamie was actually asking and explain "At the end of N3, such-and-such evidence convinced me." Instead, you got defensive and came up with a bad answer that contradicts your ISO.

@Macca @celaph @rdr @yavu

Please tell us what you think of my case.
I think it certainly is a case, and one perhaps worthy of causing change in thought.



I started with a scumread on bona. This switched to town to to his ongoing handling of the darg claim. It took guts to go against the town like that, and I liked that someone had agreed with me.

To find out now that is was to "protect darg", is a bit of a let down.

I agree with your sentiment that it did not seem like he was softing cop. That came to appear when people kept asking him if he was secretly the cop, giving reason to his suspicion, but he flat out denies these claims.
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:34 pm
dargorygel wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:31 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:28 pm
I'm thinking back to Day 1, and RHK voting for Kak over Hamilton combined with Hamilton's weird hedging is reasonably solid evidence...

Macca *has* been a bit better today.

@Darg - what do you think? Macca, Maniac, Hamilton?
I am voting for Ham.

I distrust Macca and Maniac.

Bona, despite your argument, continues to seem scum to me. Probably some annoyance OMGUS. But I'm looking for a fake claim for him, set up by the suggestion in here that he is still doubting because he is going to claim cop.

My order of preference today is Ham, maniac, macca.
I don't plan on claiming cop
From my perspective, this "I was trying to softclaim" comes of as weak and seeming to be trying to cover his back. All in all, I think less of him after than before.

TL;DR I would be willing to vote for Bona tomorrow.

Hamilton Brian
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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5840 Post by Hamilton Brian » Sun May 02, 2021 1:10 pm

Chaqa was my original janitor guess that I sent to HR on D4. There was something in the interactions through the day that made me alter my plan.

##Vote HB

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