MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

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celaph
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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4981 Post by celaph » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:53 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:28 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:15 pm
I can't tell if these continual celaph and Macca wagons are a good or bad thing.
I am pretty sure we will have to DK Macca at some point as they are just not following the game and having them at kilo will be a huge risk.
I agree with you here and I think it is probably the strongest argument for a Macca DK today. The question is really whether tomorrow is kilo.

Worst case scenario 2 miskills and 2 town NKs puts us at 5-4-1 which still winnable both because ww can eat an NK and can kill mafia, but we no longer have control. If we want to avoid that we have to treat 7-4-1 as a soft kilo forcing the Macca kill to today.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4982 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:01 pm

celaph wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:35 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:09 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:05 pm
Whether we give celaph another day or two depends on if we want to take a higher risk now or later. I tend to think we should try to eliminate the more obvious targets first.

We could request the Werewolf attempt to crunch celaph as a VT. If he is a VT, it would basically be a mis-kill. If he isn't, we can assume he's probably mafia (unless he's the town RBr, which would be stinky, but I don't get that vibe based on who has been roleblocked).
My theory being if we're going to take a miskill on celaph at some point, we should at least make it a conditional one...

If celaph is alive tomorrow, we could assume he isn't VT. But it depends on the Werewolf being on board.
:sick: Feels like I'm being set-up for a miskill tomorrow.
Last time someone said this I joke voted you.

This time I'm considering actually voting you.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4983 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:04 pm

celaph wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:53 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:28 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:15 pm
I can't tell if these continual celaph and Macca wagons are a good or bad thing.
I am pretty sure we will have to DK Macca at some point as they are just not following the game and having them at kilo will be a huge risk.
I agree with you here and I think it is probably the strongest argument for a Macca DK today. The question is really whether tomorrow is kilo.

Worst case scenario 2 miskills and 2 town NKs puts us at 5-4-1 which still winnable both because ww can eat an NK and can kill mafia, but we no longer have control. If we want to avoid that we have to treat 7-4-1 as a soft kilo forcing the Macca kill to today.
How would there be four deaths by tomorrow? I could see three (mis-DK plus mafia NK plus WW NK) but how four?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4984 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:07 pm

One thing I'm considering is, it may actually be prudent to do a full claim soon. Normally the Werewolf would be a hindrance, but if they start eating townies, they hand the game to scum, so the incentive to not claim is gone.

Thoughts?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4985 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:07 pm

I hate Bona tunneling darg but have to rule him out for Demon vote.

I’m just saying this to level myself out I guess.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4986 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:09 pm

If we think Demon went onto Kak to signal miskill

And we know brain is town

And we assume darg is cop

How do we think of damo?

Was it more likely Demon chose a wagon with 0 scum or 1?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4987 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:10 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:09 pm
If we think Demon went onto Kak to signal miskill

And we know brain is town

And we assume darg is cop

How do we think of damo?

Was it more likely Demon chose a wagon with 0 scum or 1?
It's really hard to say without knowing who the scumteam is...

Maybe we should flip Hamilton now for two reasons:
1. Seems like very possible scum

THAT ALSO

2. Could have been another Day 1 scum wagon, explaining the RHK->Kakarot play.

Thoughts?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4988 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:22 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:10 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:07 pm
Setup 1: 0 roleblocker/janitor (unproven)
setup 2: 0 inventor/ninja (we know this is out)
setup 3: 0 doctor/goon (unproven)
setup 4: 0 watcher/driver (we know this is out)
setup 5: 0 journalist/godfather (we know this is out)
setup 6: 0 cop/stalker (we know this is out)

So we're either in 1 or 3. No one should be claiming to be the doc, but I think it's worth it to put the RB claimants up, especially considering how none of them have been NK'ed.
I am certain we are in Setup 3 unless there is no Town Roleblocker in which case Damo is lying.
I think it's safe to assume that we are in setup 3 unless proven otherwise. I can see the possibility of mafia faking a roleblock but at least two (three if dargo is town, which I believe) of the remaining members must have claimed. That's a very short term plan because if goon or doc dies, at least half of the team would be outed.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4989 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:43 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:42 pm
I would argue that lots of people are coasting this game.

Bona (at points), Celaph, Damo (until today basically), Macca, Maniac (early game especially), Yavu.

Seriously, why have we not flipped Macca and Yavu simply for lurking yet?

##Vote Macca
I don't think I'm lurking except Day 2, when I was sick.
I also don't think that Macca is lurking for the last two days.
:neutral: I don't know if Chaqa is lying on purpose or we give this impression.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4990 Post by celaph » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:59 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:18 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:01 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:49 pm


I can quote this in response to rdr asking why I think celaph is scummy.

CELAPH NEVER MAKES READS
I didn´t ask you why Celaph is scummy, I asked you why you think that specific message was scummy.
You have been teling why you scumread him all day long and I agrre with your reasoning but I also agree with Chaqa (I think, it´s Chaqa´s) analysis about his vote, which makes me want to not kill him today.
Let's look at it together.
I think it's towny that Damo had the confidence to go to stats immediately after hearing that it's scum indicative of him.
Note the construction of this sentence. He doesn't say "I town-read damo." He carefully mashes together someone else's scumread of damo into a possible townread of damo, but he is not clearly committed to either stance in terms of how he would slot damo.

celaph - correct me if I am wrong. Would you say you TOWNREAD damo?
I said that I found the action towny because I was talking about that action in isolation not Damo as a whole. To answer your question, yes I do townread damo. I was bothered early by his reads, but I think he handled my questions well and I've found in the recent days that our thought processes have been more aligned.

That said, the results here are fairly meaningless. For one, knowing now that town rb can't really stop the mafia kill I can totally see them self-targeting especially N1. As such, I don't think we can necessarily assume that rdr or Chaqa are not rb. Additionally, the probabilities are so close together that any read besides straight stats should supersede this.
This is where I sum it up as "and therefore, nothing." This chunk says absolutely nothing. He concludes that we cannot conclude something necessarily. Do you know what the state of affairs is? That state of affairs is BEING TOWN. Being town, we cannot absolutely conclude ANYTHING.

celaph spewing this kind of garbage indicates that he doesn't care about town solving the game, and that he isn't even the headspace OF solving the game. If he was town, he would more rapidly dismiss this and turn it into something he could use to solve and help him advance the game state.

But doesn't it look kind of good? Doesn't it look like celaph is working away to solve the game? Except he isn't. He is not solving. He is spewing garbage nonsense.
Characterizing my argument as saying that we cannot conclude something necessarily is somewhere between misleading and dishonest. Where in my post do I argue we need to only conclude things in absolutes? You're acting as if Damo made a good argument and that my response was to simply say "well, we can't be sure so ignore this".

Damo justified his vote for rdr with a bad argument (do you disagree that his argument was bad?). I was arguing that Damo's argument was bad and should not be used. I will stand by the fact that my post was not nothing.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4991 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:00 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:10 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:09 pm
If we think Demon went onto Kak to signal miskill

And we know brain is town

And we assume darg is cop

How do we think of damo?

Was it more likely Demon chose a wagon with 0 scum or 1?
It's really hard to say without knowing who the scumteam is...

Maybe we should flip Hamilton now for two reasons:
1. Seems like very possible scum

THAT ALSO

2. Could have been another Day 1 scum wagon, explaining the RHK->Kakarot play.

Thoughts?
Like... the problem for me is... with how townie the RHK wagon appears...

It’s not even crazy that like BOTH Kak and Ham could be scum?

I was just looking at kgray again but like

If kgray is scum

That is top pro scumming

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4992 Post by celaph » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:05 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:04 pm
celaph wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:53 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:28 pm


I am pretty sure we will have to DK Macca at some point as they are just not following the game and having them at kilo will be a huge risk.
I agree with you here and I think it is probably the strongest argument for a Macca DK today. The question is really whether tomorrow is kilo.

Worst case scenario 2 miskills and 2 town NKs puts us at 5-4-1 which still winnable both because ww can eat an NK and can kill mafia, but we no longer have control. If we want to avoid that we have to treat 7-4-1 as a soft kilo forcing the Macca kill to today.
How would there be four deaths by tomorrow? I could see three (mis-DK plus mafia NK plus WW NK) but how four?
2 deaths by tomorrow puts us at 7-4-1. If we miskill a second time we're at 5-4-1 and no longer control the game. That makes the vote at 7-4-1 a soft kilo because we either hit scum or it's very unlikely we win. These numbers obviously change if mafia hit ww, but I don't think that we should be counting on it.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4993 Post by celaph » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:14 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:07 pm
One thing I'm considering is, it may actually be prudent to do a full claim soon. Normally the Werewolf would be a hindrance, but if they start eating townies, they hand the game to scum, so the incentive to not claim is gone.

Thoughts?
I think this precise reason is why the ww hasn't been eating townies so far. That said, if we mass claim then it will be really hard for town to beat ww as they get DK immunity after a successful guess.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4994 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:18 pm

celaph wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:14 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:07 pm
One thing I'm considering is, it may actually be prudent to do a full claim soon. Normally the Werewolf would be a hindrance, but if they start eating townies, they hand the game to scum, so the incentive to not claim is gone.

Thoughts?
I think this precise reason is why the ww hasn't been eating townies so far. That said, if we mass claim then it will be really hard for town to beat ww as they get DK immunity after a successful guess.
Considering we have only one PR left (two if Dargo is lying) what the point on a massclaim? What do you expect to gain? We will have 12 VT claim, Dargo and probably the town RB.
The only claim that makes sense at this point is a cop claim if it´s not Dargo.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4995 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:19 pm

yavuzovic wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:43 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:42 pm
I would argue that lots of people are coasting this game.

Bona (at points), Celaph, Damo (until today basically), Macca, Maniac (early game especially), Yavu.

Seriously, why have we not flipped Macca and Yavu simply for lurking yet?

##Vote Macca
I don't think I'm lurking except Day 2, when I was sick.
I also don't think that Macca is lurking for the last two days.
:neutral: I don't know if Chaqa is lying on purpose or we give this impression.
I would say it's just because neither of you makes much of an impression. Macca I have a vague notion of due to their weird posts and catchup style, but I really can't recall anything substantive you've done besides the JavaScript joke Day 1. Maybe I've been unintentionally missing your posts/points, but I feel like if you were contributing anything important it would have left more of a mark.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4996 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:20 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:00 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:10 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:09 pm
If we think Demon went onto Kak to signal miskill

And we know brain is town

And we assume darg is cop

How do we think of damo?

Was it more likely Demon chose a wagon with 0 scum or 1?
It's really hard to say without knowing who the scumteam is...

Maybe we should flip Hamilton now for two reasons:
1. Seems like very possible scum

THAT ALSO

2. Could have been another Day 1 scum wagon, explaining the RHK->Kakarot play.

Thoughts?
Like... the problem for me is... with how townie the RHK wagon appears...

It’s not even crazy that like BOTH Kak and Ham could be scum?

I was just looking at kgray again but like

If kgray is scum

That is top pro scumming
Hamilton first, though. I feel good about Kak due to the gun play as well.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4997 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:20 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:33 pm
Oh shit.

Set up 1 is possible if Jamie and darg both scum.

N1 scum RBs me, Jamie fake claims

N2 scum RBs rdr, darg fake claims

N3 scum RBs chaqa, darg fake claims

This means we have

i) a cop with loads of info and would explain why Macca is voting darg (not say I shouldn't have said this, in this scenario I thik darg would have noticed)
ii) rdr and Chaqa are both either town or ww

Macca if you are cop time to reveal is now.

If anyone else is cop (Bona) probaly also time to reveal.

I still think set up 3 is way more likely but the above is possible.
The above is a suicide for the scum team if you ask me. I hope the scum team did this, but I don't think they would.
Cop reveals the reads → Dargo gone → Day 2/3 RBs were fake → Jamie lied → Jamie gone → Scum halved
Cop doesn't reveal the reads but dies → Dargo gone → same...
We kill janitor → Plan fails → We find the RB fakers → Scum team halved
They nightkill town RB, or we daykill by accident → Same...

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4998 Post by Hellenic Riot » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:21 pm

Day Four Vote Count 2.0:

celaph (4): Kakarroto, Maniac, dargorygel, yavuzovic
Macca573 (2): Chaqa, damo666
Maniac (1): Jamiet99uk
Kakarroto (1): kgray
dargorygel (1): Macca573
yavuzovic (1): rdrivera2005
damo666 (1): foodcoats
Unvote (1): Hamilton Brian

Not voted (2): Bonatogether, celaph

Currently CELAPH is set to be daykilled.

You have 23 hours and 40 minutes remaining.
2

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4999 Post by Chaqa » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:23 pm

Food, do you remember the game with the Neighborhood where you had been the lightning rod and Jamie wouldn't tell us his role the whole game?

I feel similar this game, where some things *seem* obvious but I can't quite figure out why something feels off.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#5000 Post by foodcoats » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:32 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:23 pm
Food, do you remember the game with the Neighborhood where you had been the lightning rod and Jamie wouldn't tell us his role the whole game?

I feel similar this game, where some things *seem* obvious but I can't quite figure out why something feels off.
Hmmm...

Jamie is definitely off, but...

I mean I can only deduce he is scum?

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