MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[TheMadMonarch]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

Neither you nor Chaqa have obvtowned (sorry ghug) and no other player has obvscummed so I see you and Chaqa as the 2 best targets today.

1.Darg is obviously off the table as should Jamie and me be.
Bona and kgray shouldn't be contemplated because of the crucial timing of their D1 votes.
2.Food screams town.
Celaph, Macca, Ham and Maniac are possibles but without additional evidence I see no reason to vote any of them ahead of you or Chaqa.

bold text added by me

1. Hard disagree. Darg is mega sus. Also not great on Jamie. You're nice though.

2. eh... I would disagree....

[TheMadMonarch]

If Chaqa is not the dk today Town blocker should block Chaqa again. If maniac is not eaten this would strongly indicate Chaqa is WW (or Maniac himself is).

Or WW could just not eat tonight, avoiding missing the, frankly unsure (at least I am), Maniac, and getting an easy miskill.

[TheMadMonarch]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?

I think the WW benefits by having a fake cop (esp. fake cop controversy) and would stay quiet about it. Therefore, the most likely WW by opinion of you is some who is saying nothing about the issue. So not Bona or I.

[damo666]

I won't bore you with the numbers but if we assume that anyone blocked is not Ninja then they have a greater probability of being town than those not blocked. So we should not vote me, Jamie , rdr or Chaqa.

Wrt the WW I think it just as likely they tried to eat journalist Maniac as be blocked so shelving the Chaqa ww theory for the moment.

Apologies to rdr (and Chaqa).

##unvote

[damo666]

If Chaqa is not the dk today Town blocker should block Chaqa again. If maniac is not eaten this would strongly indicate Chaqa is WW (or Maniac himself is).

Why are you just ignoring the chance Maniac is scum and lying about his claim? I have a feeling you might be WW hunting from a scum approach.

Because I'm stupid

[TheMadMonarch]

I won't bore you with the numbers but if we assume that anyone blocked is not Ninja then they have a greater probability of being town than those not blocked. So we should not vote me, Jamie , rdr or Chaqa.

Wrt the WW I think it just as likely they tried to eat journalist Maniac as be blocked so shelving the Chaqa ww theory for the moment.

Apologies to rdr (and Chaqa).

##unvote

Maybe I missed something, but why would we do this?

[damo666]

I won't bore you with the numbers but if we assume that anyone blocked is not Ninja then they have a greater probability of being town than those not blocked. So we should not vote me, Jamie , rdr or Chaqa.

Wrt the WW I think it just as likely they tried to eat journalist Maniac as be blocked so shelving the Chaqa ww theory for the moment.

Apologies to rdr (and Chaqa).

##unvote

Maybe I missed something, but why would we do this?

Because NKills occurred while these blocked. Ninja most likely NK culprit.

[TheMadMonarch]

I won't bore you with the numbers but if we assume that anyone blocked is not Ninja then they have a greater probability of being town than those not blocked. So we should not vote me, Jamie , rdr or Chaqa.

Wrt the WW I think it just as likely they tried to eat journalist Maniac as be blocked so shelving the Chaqa ww theory for the moment.

Apologies to rdr (and Chaqa).

##unvote

Maybe I missed something, but why would we do this?

Because NKills occurred while these blocked. Ninja most likely NK culprit.

As I just said:

THE BACKUP KILLER EXISTS!!! RB WILL NOT STOP MAFIA KILLS!!!

[yavuzovic]

More seriously, it's really, really, really obnoxious that people make this kind of criticism ("you're not reading"). There is a lot of reading to be done playing Forum Mafia and it is inevitable that things will be missed. I have read every single page, but in trying to keep up with all the material, sometimes I will not ingest and fully appreciate the import of every comment, vote, quote, etc.

And, the whole point of the game is to have a conversation, share information, illuminate, cajole, persuade, etc. So why complain that I am asking for additional clarification and discussion?

This being talked, I missed dargo's investigations if claimed. I also can't remember the roleblocks except damo666 and jamiet99uk on D2.

[damo666]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

[damo666]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

* I like this strategy.

[damo666]

More seriously, it's really, really, really obnoxious that people make this kind of criticism ("you're not reading"). There is a lot of reading to be done playing Forum Mafia and it is inevitable that things will be missed. I have read every single page, but in trying to keep up with all the material, sometimes I will not ingest and fully appreciate the import of every comment, vote, quote, etc.

And, the whole point of the game is to have a conversation, share information, illuminate, cajole, persuade, etc. So why complain that I am asking for additional clarification and discussion?

This being talked, I missed dargo's investigations if claimed. I also can't remember the roleblocks except damo666 and jamiet99uk on D2.

Roleblock claims

N1 damo and Jamie
N2 rdr and dargo
N3 chaqa and dargo

[damo666]

Maybe I missed something, but why would we do this?

Because NKills occurred while these blocked. Ninja most likely NK culprit.

As I just said:

THE BACKUP KILLER EXISTS!!! RB WILL NOT STOP MAFIA KILLS!!!

O.
Well let's just kill Maniac anyway.

[TheMadMonarch]

Why did WW not eat copDarg last night?

1. Darg is not cop, to me this is so unlikely it can be ignored.
2. WW was blocked.

Is there any other reason ? Maniac could have been Journo, vt or scum so not a good target.

3. Maniac is WW.

Conclusion either Maniac or Chaqa is WW.

I propose we kill Maniac today and if he does not flip WW town blocker should block Chaqa and if darg not eaten then Chaqa is werewolf and we kill him.

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Also Maniac could be scum.

Unlike this strategy.

##vote Maniac

Perhaps I've forgotten something. Why do we think Maniac could be the WW. I understand that Chaqa was RB'd, but why Maniac?

(I have a vague memory of reading why and possibly agreeing, but I can't find it.)

Also, I dislike this strategy because:

Of course we may choose not to eat in orde to incriminate Chaqa but so what, darg will have survived and Chaqa might be scum anyway.

Where I assume "we" means "he".

[yavuzovic]

Just while I remember if I was WW I'd guess someone was VT on D1, as we only had 1 NK and no doc claim the people who were blocked N1 become prime suspects for WW.

Thoughts on Rdriveria

30 mins to go on D1 and this is the scores on the doors:

DemonRHK 4 foodcoats VECNA celaph Chaqa
Kakarroto 3 damo666 DARGORYGEL BRAINBOMB
Hamilton Brian 3 yavuzovic WORCEJ rdrivera2005
BRAINBOMB 3 ghug Hamilton Brian kgray
dargorygel 2 Kakarroto Bonatogether
Maniac 1 Jamiet99uk
Bonatogether 2 Macca573 DemonRHK
Jamiet99uk 1 Maniac

DemonRHK is about to make his move. he wants to survive, obviously, so what does he do. He has three wagons all with three votes apiece in second place. He has to be making the calculation about how he gets saved. Clearly if one of those wagons is full of scum, he isn't going to get much help in future. So he needs to pick a mainly town wagon. We now know that Kak's wagon was mainly town, so it was a good choice for him. But what does that tell us about the other two wagons? Sure they could be all town and scum were hiding on minor wagons and bussing DemonRHK, but there is also a good possibility that scum have built at least one of those counter wagons to at least give DemonRHK a chance of survival.

This is my main reason for first suspecting rdriveria. As the third placed man on Hamilton he pushed it to major wagon status. If rdriveria is scum DemonEHK would be better joining the Kak wagon and prey for rdriveria or other scum to follow him there.

Now we now know scum didn't save DemonRHK, but that doesn't mean that DemonRHK wasn't planning for a save.

Rdriveria then gets roleblocked N2. On that night there is no only one kill. Either the kill was a WW kill and Scum!Rdriveria was roleblocked from his kill or maybe Watcher!Brainbomb was killed by Scum and Janitor!Rdriveria was blocked from cleaning up. Another possibility is that WW!Rdriveria was blocked (if so thanks as I could've been the WW target N2).

I also think Chaqa and Rdriveria are in same scum team. See my post on p150 where Chaqa refuses to vote for his scum read rdriveria when rdr was a viable wagon. I know chaqa disputes part of this but it's worth a re-read when i die.

My final scum pick is chaqa for the reason stated above.

So in summary, scum are Celaph, Jamiet, Rdriveria, Chaqa and 1 other (I'm tempted to look at Damo maybe but that's not a strong read).

I find this post very good from Maniac. Not only making me feel townier about him but also eliminating my earlier scum team claim: Macca, Rivera, Maniac. I'm still strong about rivera-macca being scum together.

[rdrivera2005]

If Chaqa is not the dk today Town blocker should block Chaqa again. If maniac is not eaten this would strongly indicate Chaqa is WW (or Maniac himself is).

Why are you just ignoring the chance Maniac is scum and lying about his claim? I have a feeling you might be WW hunting from a scum approach.

Because I'm stupid

I can't argue with this

[yavuzovic]

More seriously, it's really, really, really obnoxious that people make this kind of criticism ("you're not reading"). There is a lot of reading to be done playing Forum Mafia and it is inevitable that things will be missed. I have read every single page, but in trying to keep up with all the material, sometimes I will not ingest and fully appreciate the import of every comment, vote, quote, etc.

And, the whole point of the game is to have a conversation, share information, illuminate, cajole, persuade, etc. So why complain that I am asking for additional clarification and discussion?

This being talked, I missed dargo's investigations if claimed. I also can't remember the roleblocks except damo666 and jamiet99uk on D2.

Roleblock claims

N1 damo and Jamie
N2 rdr and dargo
N3 chaqa and dargo

Thank you. Dargo RB is definitely the scum RBer. Even if he's not cop, town RBer wouldn't have a reason to target dargo. And the variety of roleblocked people makes me eliminate the possibility that scum lied about the roleblock to create confusion. (It was talked during the night.) We are down to Setup 3?

[yavuzovic]

If I die kill kgray

But actually celaph

And then some combo of Jamie/Maniac/Chaqa/rd/Macca/yav in roughly that prefer.

And then kgray.

Town: bona, damo, HB, kgray

Super town: darg probably, food, kak

Can scum change the kill order in two minutes after seeing this? I doubt that so ##vote celaph

[yavuzovic]

RIP Ghug, Well played. See you in the God thread soon enough.

This isn't good news but again only one kill and no janitor clean up.

What is going on?

The secret Setup 7

[Hamilton Brian]

Heh, bot read that as a vote for Maniac. Sorry pal, today's not your day...I think.

##vote celaph

I'd like to press those that have been coasting to lay it on the line.

Do you think celaph is coasting the most out of everybody?

Now I think I see where foodcoats was getting the "coasting" business. It wasn't necessarily related to Celaph but for some other people that seem barely present.