MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

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Maniac
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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4761 Post by Maniac » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:21 am

yavuzovic wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 am
Maniac wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:25 am
Yav: Moves from Macca to Maniac making it Maniac 8, Flum 5. I see this as town Yav.
@Maniac, you townread me because I voted you over Flum, and if you're claiming that you are town, I voted for another town and this doesn't make any sense. This is indeed towny and I'm happy I didn't vote for Flum, but I think so because I scumread you. If you were both town, I could fairly be a scum sitting on a random town wagon.
Are you giving up?
Please reply to this.
I’m not giving up.

Scum want multiple town deaths if they can. Killing me D3 when I was probably a good candidate for a N3 WW attack doesn’t make much sense. So when you voted for me, I see that as not scum motivated therefore town. Even WW would want flum dead over me, I think. Does that make sense?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4762 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:22 am

foodcoats wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:12 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:26 am
Is there any amount of evidence to suggest this EoD was T v S? Does Maniac's self-preservation vote look scummier than town?
FWIW I jumped onto Flum even though I read Maniac as scummier because I read the people on Maniac’s wagon as being scum.

If I maintain my reads I have to believe Maniac was more likely town. But I personally feel very disrupted and feel a need to look at towncore and variously held assumptions instead, like darg’s claim, ghug’s pseudoclear, and my townreads of Chaqa and kgray.
This is a very townish reason to vote. @foodcoats Do you still scumread the people on Maniac or did you start to think that the scumteam was on Fluminator

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4763 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:24 am

Maniac wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:21 am
yavuzovic wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:15 am
Maniac wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:25 am
Yav: Moves from Macca to Maniac making it Maniac 8, Flum 5. I see this as town Yav.
@Maniac, you townread me because I voted you over Flum, and if you're claiming that you are town, I voted for another town and this doesn't make any sense. This is indeed towny and I'm happy I didn't vote for Flum, but I think so because I scumread you. If you were both town, I could fairly be a scum sitting on a random town wagon.
Are you giving up?
Please reply to this.
I’m not giving up.

Scum want multiple town deaths if they can. Killing me D3 when I was probably a good candidate for a N3 WW attack doesn’t make much sense. So when you voted for me, I see that as not scum motivated therefore town. Even WW would want flum dead over me, I think. Does that make sense?
I understand but doesn't make you less scummy for me. In fact, I would vote for you. I just want to wait untill I see where that celaph train started.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4764 Post by Maniac » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:28 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:44 am
Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.
Have you factored in that because Rdr and Chaqa were roleblocked when a kill took place that they are unlikely Ninja? I know scum could have a reserve killer or WW might have made the kills. Because all kills have been on specific PRs I doubt any of them were WW which begs the question why? Is Chaqa more likely WW because WW is freer to visit players now Watcher has been killed? There is a chance that TRBr didn’t roleblock anyone on one of the nights and claimed RB. It’s possible they were worried they would hit the other PRs. How does that affect your conclusions?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4765 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:39 am

I start to doubt what was in my head earlier

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4766 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:40 am

Maniac wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:28 am
damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:44 am
Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.
Have you factored in that because Rdr and Chaqa were roleblocked when a kill took place that they are unlikely Ninja? I know scum could have a reserve killer or WW might have made the kills. Because all kills have been on specific PRs I doubt any of them were WW which begs the question why? Is Chaqa more likely WW because WW is freer to visit players now Watcher has been killed? There is a chance that TRBr didn’t roleblock anyone on one of the nights and claimed RB. It’s possible they were worried they would hit the other PRs. How does that affect your conclusions?
I think the hypothesis that town blocker held and claimed is unlikely and can be ignored. I fail to see the benefit.

That rdr and celaph are probably not Ninja is a very good point. The same is ofc true of Jamie and I. I will rework the numbers.

The apparent lack of WW activity might indicate one of the blockees is WW with Chaqa the most likely.

I assume nobody has yet received a failed ww message.

Thanks for your input Maniac. You've got me thinking.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4767 Post by yavuzovic » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:42 am

dargorygel wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:43 pm
Ok... I keep thinking through, and if there is no RB, scum would just continue to lie, if there isn't a town RB.
But is this a good strategy? What happens if we find the janitor? We would detect the fake RB claim

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4768 Post by damo666 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:43 am

If Chaqa is not the dk today Town blocker should block Chaqa again. If maniac is not eaten this would strongly indicate Chaqa is WW (or Maniac himself is).

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4769 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:48 am

Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:45 pm
Macca573 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:08 am
I thought I'd explained this [in reference to me saying that they left without a stated reason], but I'll try again.

I wanted to vote for darg but didn't know if it would go anywhere. When I was the last one left, I deemed it was over, and moved my vote to something that might happen.


I like the rest of this post though, keep it up Bona.
There were two votes total. Damo and you. Why did you not push the wagon?
it was 11:26 when I sent this post.
Macca573 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:26 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:21 pm
##vote Flum
Thank you.

##VOTE Flum

I will now be getting some much needed sleep. See you in the morning (or night I guess).
I wanted to go to bed.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4770 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:49 am

Maniac wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:11 pm
Just while I remember if I was WW I'd guess someone was VT on D1, as we only had 1 NK and no doc claim the people who were blocked N1 become prime suspects for WW.

Thoughts on Rdriveria

30 mins to go on D1 and this is the scores on the doors:

DemonRHK 4 foodcoats VECNA celaph Chaqa
Kakarroto 3 damo666 DARGORYGEL BRAINBOMB
Hamilton Brian 3 yavuzovic WORCEJ rdrivera2005
BRAINBOMB 3 ghug Hamilton Brian kgray
dargorygel 2 Kakarroto Bonatogether
Maniac 1 Jamiet99uk
Bonatogether 2 Macca573 DemonRHK
Jamiet99uk 1 Maniac

DemonRHK is about to make his move. he wants to survive, obviously, so what does he do. He has three wagons all with three votes apiece in second place. He has to be making the calculation about how he gets saved. Clearly if one of those wagons is full of scum, he isn't going to get much help in future. So he needs to pick a mainly town wagon. We now know that Kak's wagon was mainly town, so it was a good choice for him. But what does that tell us about the other two wagons? Sure they could be all town and scum were hiding on minor wagons and bussing DemonRHK, but there is also a good possibility that scum have built at least one of those counter wagons to at least give DemonRHK a chance of survival.

This is my main reason for first suspecting rdriveria. As the third placed man on Hamilton he pushed it to major wagon status. If rdriveria is scum DemonEHK would be better joining the Kak wagon and prey for rdriveria or other scum to follow him there.

Now we now know scum didn't save DemonRHK, but that doesn't mean that DemonRHK wasn't planning for a save.

Rdriveria then gets roleblocked N2. On that night there is no only one kill. Either the kill was a WW kill and Scum!Rdriveria was roleblocked from his kill or maybe Watcher!Brainbomb was killed by Scum and Janitor!Rdriveria was blocked from cleaning up. Another possibility is that WW!Rdriveria was blocked (if so thanks as I could've been the WW target N2).

I also think Chaqa and Rdriveria are in same scum team. See my post on p150 where Chaqa refuses to vote for his scum read rdriveria when rdr was a viable wagon. I know chaqa disputes part of this but it's worth a re-read when i die.

My final scum pick is chaqa for the reason stated above.

So in summary, scum are Celaph, Jamiet, Rdriveria, Chaqa and 1 other (I'm tempted to look at Damo maybe but that's not a strong read).
Due to the backup killer, scum kill can't be roleblocked. (can still be doc saved though)

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4771 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:49 am

foodcoats wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:27 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:32 pm
I like these wagons. I don't agree about celaph and wouldn't vote for him, but I can understand where people are coming from with his wagon. I still am opposed to voting out non-Maniac RHK voters on principle, at least for now. I'm open to voting Flum as well, though Macca is my preferred DK.

I would also vote for Jamie, Yavu, or MAYBE rivera or damo if it came down to it, but those last two are a VERY large step below the othes.

My town core atm is Bona, celaph, dargo, food, ghug, Kak, kgray.

Comfortable staying on Macca atm.
This is just one quote, but Chaqa is pretty adamant about there being 0 or max 1 busser on RHK. Chaqa brings this stance up every phase.

This sticks out really glaringly to me at this point because it’s not a townie conclusion. We don’t know WHAT happened D1 to cause scum to “screw up,” and we can’t discount that scum may have decided it was a legitimate strategy.

If Chaqa is scum he is playing really well, but obviously scum DO play well and win off such performances. I think Chaqa’s fixated town core and persistent suspicion of Maniac off a strict way of viewing the RHK wagon could be a leak in his scum game, where for example he could be scum with Maniac and celaph and is working his tail to appear obvtown and control the narrative. Chaqa hasn’t looked at me or kgray or celaph at all and just lumped us in his towncore. That is suspicious.
Hey Chaqa! Can I join this apparent no questions asked towncore?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4772 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:49 am

damo666 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:18 pm
Macca573 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:54 am
damo666 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:35 am


Zeros indicate no days in that category.
Blanks indicate dead.

Now, would you like me to feed you some breakfast?
Why is demon all blanks then a zero?

Considering it's almost 9pm, unlikely, but thanks for the offer.
The blanks because he was dead days 2 and 3. The x=zero relates to his own vote which wasn't on himself and 'wrong' because he was scum so column C I think. Irrelevant as dead scum in any event.
I still don't really understand it, but thanks for trying to explain!

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4773 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:49 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:43 am
If Chaqa is not the dk today Town blocker should block Chaqa again. If maniac is not eaten this would strongly indicate Chaqa is WW (or Maniac himself is).
Why are you just ignoring the chance Maniac is scum and lying about his claim? I have a feeling you might be WW hunting from a scum approach.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4774 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:49 am

foodcoats wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:06 pm
I’m trying to theory craft a bit on how to win here. I feel like tomorrow’s wagons need to put some fresh meat into the ring or bring more active players under scrutiny. We need something like kgray versus Kakarroto or rdr versus yavu or HB versus Chaqa. If we go after Macca or Maniac I feel like we’re going to end up with still relatively limited information because these players have less activity and have been battling less with the field. (I would also love to see Celaph at the actual end of the day. He’s slipped twice now. But we can come around to him on D5.)

I’m throwing these names out more or less based on nothing. Right now these are all people I’ve been townreading. But the EOD made me feel we were TvT and I think we need something we can argue over more. We need action and high drama; we won’t catch the whole scum team by scraping the bottom of the barrel (...no offense to you scummy types).

To channel my inner worcej, we need to put some strong townies on the block so we can win as a town team in the long run. I think we can afford a higher risk set of wagons tomorrow. If we wait longer we might lose because we will get locked into townreading some strong players who may be strong wolves.
From what I know about mafia, voting for townreads is generally a bad idea?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4775 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:50 am

Hellenic Riot wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:09 pm
Fighting continues to rage through the city, as the fighting raged on. The appearance of the Party Ponies briefly reinforces the demigod position however, as a charge of centaurs pushes the forces of Kronos back, and a lull in the action now begins. Alas, the leader of the ponies is mortally wounded in the charge.

GHUG has died! He was Chiron, the JOURNALIST.

Day Four has now begun. You have 48 hours.
Another one bites the dust! Mafia kinda godmode-ing with these PR guesses...

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4776 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:50 am

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:17 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:15 pm
Maniac wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:11 pm

-- snipped --

I also think Chaqa and Rdriveria are in same scum team. See my post on p150 where Chaqa refuses to vote for his scum read rdriveria when rdr was a viable wagon. I know chaqa disputes part of this but it's worth a re-read when i die.

My final scum pick is chaqa for the reason stated above.

So in summary, scum are Celaph, Jamiet, Rdriveria, Chaqa and 1 other (I'm tempted to look at Damo maybe but that's not a strong read).
Point me to where I had a scum read on rivera. You even called it a "top scum read" at one point.

You're deliberately and repeatedly lying.
Maniac has lied a number of times in this game.
I have to say I'm pretty against lying.

##VOTE Maniac

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4777 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:51 am

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
very interesting eh? No watcher now. There is no downside to doing it unless he's lying.

##VOTE dargo

(yeah, I changed my mind since the last vote. Would vote for either though)

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4778 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:51 am

dargorygel wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:26 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:25 pm
dargorygel wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:24 pm
I do not see that as high risk. Scum could count on being able to false-claim RB, couldn't they?

It only became discoverable because they hit some PRs, and I revealed.

I'll follow ghug for now.
##CELAPH
Invalid vote.

Aren't you on the council or something?
I used to be.
##VOTE CELAPH
(thanks)
Huh? Did I miss something? Was it humour?

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4779 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:51 am

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:15 pm
Setup 5 is out.
Could someone make a list of the setups that are out, are we down to one yet? I haven't been following.

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Re: MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

#4780 Post by Macca573 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:52 am

Bonatogether wrote:
Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:43 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:41 pm
I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.
cause dargo is not the cop
Exactly!!

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