So obviously I do not actually have an incontrovertible and impossible guilty on kgray, as BunnyGo noted at the time, but I find the bloc voting to be deeply problematic and I really do not see a reason to believe she is town here. Let's have a look at the progression of her thoughts on rdrivera, starting with her scum-case on him d1:
kgray wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:16 pm
I'm also mildly suspicious of Rivera because even though he's often not a big poster early, he usually does present some reads. This game all he's done is piggy-back off my brain townread, said basically what I said about Macca (and bozo pointed out why Rivera saying that didn't make sense) and made a weird comment about Maniac being scummy for things that Rivera knows very well that town!Maniac does.
A perfectly reasonable case, though as I pointed out at the time, not a conclusive one. Pertinently she suspected him because he had done nothing and was not giving reads - Something which rdrivera has done absolutely fuck all of ever since. kgray attempted to get a wagon on him going for quite a while at EoD1 before backing out and heading after others, but kept having rdrivera as her top scumread.
But N1, when pushed on whether rdrivera was scum, she's now hedging hard:
kgray wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:48 pm
Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:58 pm
Now kgray, given that you apparently *were* fairly convinced that rdrivera was scum, I have some questions of my own:
A) Why did YOU not switch back from celaph when rdrivera took the lead after you thought the wagon was dead?
B) Do you think those reasons apply to DemonRHK who had the same pattern as you, too?
C) What do you think about the other conclusions from my VCA, primarily how atrocious damo looks there?
I wouldn't say I was fairly convinced, but yeah I definitely thought/think it's possible that Rivera is scum. I don't know, the Rivera wagon wasn't feeling right, I definitely changed my mind about Bunny, and celaph made sense at the time.
[SNIP]
Come D2 this has now transformed into one of her top townreads:
kgray wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:50 pm
Vecna wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:45 pm
someone entertain me some, im here now. I dont have time to catchup on 200 pages atm, but I do wanna get a grasp of shit and hammer some scumbucket again so I can die in peace tonight.
People who should absolutely not die today: brain, bona, Rivera, Bob, Demon, Donny, Hamilton, Ezio
People who are scummy: ghug, celaph, damo, HR
Now, what can have changed in that time? Option one of course is that she has a report on rdrivera, but given that she spent half the day pushing for a celaph flip to work out if there's a psychotrooper then the idea that she's magically townreading rdrivera based solely on a report instead of just pushing her preivous top scumread then this line doesn't hold up to any sort of scrutiny whatsoever. If she were that concerned about a psychotrooper, she'd still be wanting rdrivera. So then, maybe it's his gameplay that suddenly changed?
Well...
Let's first have a look at rdrivera's N1, and a couple of key posts in particular:
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:04 am
Well, missed EOD. I thought it was later.
I kind of understand why I was a wagon and also why lfischl was a wagon. Don't get why he didn't claim his role. We now know for sure Alien lover is out of play. Not much.
Was that Bunny claim real?
I need to read EOD but probably not tonight.
See you.
So first up rdrivera enters and "understands why he was a wagon". Fair enough. Nothing of note here. EXCEPT...
rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:51 am
kgray wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:58 am
Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:36 pm
I want people to explain why ghug & I were the only people trying to prevent a tie there. Everyone who was present had better come up with a good reason for sitting back and letting Bona pull that shit - The only reason it was close is because none of the rest of you shifted
This is a lot of righteous indignation coming from someone who was on a vanity Rivera wagon with one minute to go, especially considering you didn't even strongly scumread Rivera.
That's a good point. I was re-reading EOD and HR vote on me looked really weird as we never interacted, I was offline and was obviously softing a PR. Not a vote I expect from HR closer to EOD.
What the ACTUAL fuck is this post? A) Who the fuck announces that they were softing a PR - *AT NIGHT* - Under no pressure, and for no reason whatsover - Ever? And B) He just said that he understood why he was a wagon, and now all of a sudden he was "obviously softing a PR". These two things are mutually incompatible - How can you think you were an obvious PR but also understand why you were a wagon?
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Anyway, let's move on to rdrivera's D2. I can't be bothered to quote the whole thing.
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... rivera2005
So, rdrivera still has basically no presence whatsoever. He does have a few reads now, but once again most of them are piggybacked. He also, at the point where I voted him and magically summoned him within five minutes, showed that he was clearly reading the thread but deliberately choosing not to post. None of which suggests that there's any reason for kgray to be townreading rdrivera. And of course, when asked about him D2, she could only come up with:
kgray wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:43 pm
Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:32 pm
I'd love to hear why rdrivera is your example here given you scumread him D1 and he's done absolutely fuck all today. He came in and claimed he'd softed a PR D1 (at night, for no reason whatsoever), and then disappeared off the face of the earth. Why are you no longer scumreading him?
Because he said he's obvtown and he only ever says that when he's town. And I decided that he's playing how I expect him to as town, like you originally said, and I don't trust the people saying he was saved. And I'm his spokesperson, and we're vibing this game, and he's town.
IE She couldn't make any explanation whatsoever for why her read has changed. And now of course tonight she's been harping on about Underdogs and how people are likely to change their reads entirely because of them - Something which sounds like some pretty poor scumplay but also sounds like it comes from experience. Is rdrivera an Underdog, and that's why she wanted him D1 but magically forgot about him ever since? Quite possibly yes.
As for RHK, I have no idea if he's actually a lover or just some deluded townie, and don't really care because the only thing he's actually done this game is repeatedly post about how ANGERY everything makes him and show off his macho body like some sweaty bodybuilder at the gym.
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Moving onto the elephant in the room: Why did I tie the vote? Well, mostly because you all deserved it. After repeatedly calling all of you out N1 for the way you sat there and basically allowed Bona to run wild trying to tie the vote D1, what happens D2? Oh, that's right, you once again all sat there and did no consolidating despite numerous off-wagon voters *ACTIVELY POSTING* at the time. So I saw an opportunity to make you all learn not to create the scenario. But more importantly, I saw the way celaph had got off the other counterwagons and instead come aggressively at me and it reminded me strongly of whatever day we almost killed him in M62, and I therefore now have quite a significant townread on celaph. So I decided to load up time.is on my second monitor, furiously refresh to see if people would consolidate, and if not, I'd tie the vote.
Naturally I *could* have pushed on Ezio, but as I have said repeatedly, I really do not see any motivation for scum to lie about their discards. And for scum to lie about their discards to claim they tossed a UNIQUE ROLE makes even less sense - What the fuck is the point of taking that risk and therefore risking the call out? There is none. Maybe you could make an argument that he's a scumplayer who got two good scumcards and didn't want town to comfortably rule one out of being in play, but if that's the case he still just claims he tosses VT or Goon. So I didn't (and still do not) want to get Ezio either. And because we almost certainly don't have many miskills before we lose our majority and maybe even our plurality (something I also pointed out during the day), I'm quite pleased that I tied the vote rather than allowed either person I believe is town to die. And I'm going to look forward to painting "I told you so" out in rainbow glitter in the God QT later about it.
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Now, I recognise there is a reasonable chance I get shot tonight by a vig. I'm not too bothered by that - I always prefer to be NK'd if I think I'm likely to be miskilled, as it's just better for town. But given that there's a potential scum doctor, vig shooting obvious candidates is bad and therefore I think there's also a solid chance that I don't die. HOWEVER - If I am the *only* death tonight, and therefore it's concluded that the mafia killed me, that would change the scenario - I see absolutely zero reason why scum-kgray would kill me, so if I die then that would only make sense if the mafia are trying to frame kgray. In that case, I might even accept I was slightly wrong about her. Though rdrivera's still scum, so she'd be wrong too, and that's what matters most.
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Other reads, which are shortened as I ran out of time:
Strong town: Celaph, Ezio, Hamilton Brian (this is just blatant), Donny Dude, BobMcBob
Medium town: brainbomb (biggest flaw in my lovers theory is that I just don't see him as scum), BunnyGo (I see no reason why he'd be pointing out that PM'ing atrocity as scum, unless he's SK),
Strong scum: rdrivera, kgray
Medium scum: damo (I still see zero reason whatsoever for why he would out there), emc (only turns up when he's the topic), vecna (too little too late for him to be doing anything)
Possible scum: Macca (Gone an awful long way in without actually doing anything and yet cares enough to wake up super early to make sure they vote), ghug (I don't especially buy that he'd townread me here)