webdiplomacy.net

"Bloodsucker (0) -- Is this the faction's 1 kill?"

No, the Aliens have a factional kill - but they can only use it once.

Listen up, you goofy goobers.

- The posting of the Game Threat, and the dealing of role cards, will occur TONIGHT, Sunday, 31st Jan, from 10pm GMT, which is 25hrs before actual Game Start.

- It will take me about 20-30 minutes to PM you all with your cards, so bear with me while that is happening.

- The deadline for players to PICK a card, by responding to me simply stating "A" or "B", will be tomorrow, Monday 1st February, at 10pm GMT, which is one hour before game start.

- If any player fails to pick a card by the deadline, I will flip a coin for you (Heads =Card A / Tails=Card B).

- Game Start will then occur tomorrow, Monday 1st February, at 11pm GMT.

* Game THREAD, dammit autocorrect

Note: When I start the card draw, this thread will CLOSE and you'll have to stop posting in it.

game threat.... lol
Your two choices are A and B.... YOU'D BETTER CHOOSE ONE OR ELSE!!!

dargorygel wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:17 pm

game threat.... lol
Your two choices are A and B.... YOU'D BETTER CHOOSE ONE OR ELSE!!!

Did I answer your questions sufficiently?

The one thing I didn’t consider is HOW MANY goons there could be. It would be amusing if mafia outnumber town. I didn’t consider this an option when looking only at role interactions.

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:46 pm

The one thing I didn’t consider is HOW MANY goons there could be. It would be amusing if mafia outnumber town. I didn’t consider this an option when looking only at role interactions.

There is a pre req that Town cannot be outnumbered. If it occurred there would be a reroll.

@Bunny thank you very much for your detailed analysis. I think we can conclude there will be no Mafia Lover among the mafia lovers.

@Bunny - thanks for that detailed analysis.

It’s probably possible for someone with great maths skills (Damo?) to work out the likely game make up if we all made our choices based on your scoring system.

I think everyone should watch this video for many reasons:

1) The guy is an excellent expositor (he even made his own software to do the animations)

2) It's really interesting (especially given current news)

3) It's relevant for our game!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lG4VkPoG3ko

Maniac wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:51 pm

@Bunny - thanks for that detailed analysis.

It’s probably possible for someone with great maths skills (Damo?) to work out the likely game make up if we all made our choices based on your scoring system.

That becomes hard. But there's something to be done.

First: every role has a 1/3 chance of not being offered. But this is not independent between roles (if you know 3 aren't offered, the others are more likely)

Second: My offering this assessment had some valuation on playstyles. Someone who is likely to be shot (*cough*rdr*cough*) may have different valuations. Someone likely to be daykilled (*cough*Hamilton*cough*) may undervalue bulletproof.

Third: Some people are just looking for different things. I personally have been mafia a lot lately. And my natural style which I may be trying to change has been on the trollier side. Mafia and alien don't appeal to me at the moment, but I tried to address their strengths and weaknesses from a neutral POV. That said, someone else may *want* what those roles offer.

However, with some simplifications, you can do the following math:

A given card has a 1/3 chance of not being offered.

If you take my valuations as the voice of God and agree with them 100%, just count the number of cards that have higher valuation/lower valuation than it. Multiply that by 2/3 and you get the odds it is not picked/picked.

Sorry...ignore multiplying by 2/3.

To calculate an individual card being in the game:

Probability of not = 1/3 + 2/3(number of cards weighted better/number of cards weighted worse)

Whoops. Forgot all the cards of equal value:

Odds of not being chosen:

1/3 (when not offered) + 2/3 * odds not chosen

Odds not chosen = # better cards + 0.5 # equal cards / all other cards

There’s also:

1) good chance I missed something and someone else sees it and now heavily values the card

2) someone chooses a card to be contrarian

3) someone chooses a card for second order effects based on the analysis.

Forgot to ask; does tree stump effect last for entire game? If so, I think I might go for that one above all else, die early and shitpost rest of game :v

e.m.c^42 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:54 pm

Forgot to ask; does tree stump effect last for entire game? If so, I think I might go for that one above all else, die early and shitpost rest of game :v

There are some players I think the bloodsucker is not likely to target for exactly this reason.

I might go random

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:07 pm

e.m.c^42 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:54 pm

Forgot to ask; does tree stump effect last for entire game? If so, I think I might go for that one above all else, die early and shitpost rest of game :v

There are some players I think the bloodsucker is not likely to target for exactly this reason.

See, the genius move here would be to choose the bloodsucker and self-target.

e.m.c^42 wrote: ↑

Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:54 pm

Forgot to ask; does tree stump effect last for entire game? If so, I think I might go for that one above all else, die early and shitpost rest of game :v

Tree Stump lasts the entirety of the rest of the game from the point at which the person is made into a Tree Stump, yes.

You cannot choose to become a Tree Stump, it is not one of the cards in the deck. Becoming a tree stump occurs if you are attacked by the Alien Bloodsucker.