MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[aarodactyl]

This post is really weird. Why him tunneling you or not should influence your engagement with the game? Could you be so blatantly scummy?

He was trying to pressure me to spend all evening playing when we still have a day and a half in the phase.

I believe I just pressured you to vote.

Yeah. But I had plans to make a detailed reads list and I didn’t want to vote until after that. I’ll finish that today and I threw out a vote for your sake last night

[worcej]

Ghug maybe. Damo no.

Bunny maybe.

Even though I just caught Damo lying?

I think if Damo is scum he would have been more careful before making that statement. He was under no real pressure, why as scum he choose to tell a lie about something that can be easily disproved?

It also really wasn’t much of a lie, more of just a wrong characterization of himself.

Town points to Jamie for freaking out about it though.

[worcej]

Also I'm satisfied with damo's answer RE: naked votes if the only data point is from M55. That was seven months ago. I don't expect him to remember a naked vote from that long ago.

If there's more recent data and/or a trend then that's another thing. Jamie, is there?

He also used to naked vote me for the lawlz, but those were more joke votes than anything

[aarodactyl]

FWIW Jamie, if you think it's best to hold off on revealing until later in the day, that seems reasonable to me as well. My answer was simply meant to make the point that if you're sure this person is not VT, and you have no specific way to differentiate town PR from mafia, then the math favors pressing that person because ~70% of the time in this setup (5/7) you are hitting mafia. Obviously how you press is up to your discretion, but if your read is right then you have a really good shot at hitting mafia.

Going a bit meta on this discussion, do you think this whole discussion is townie of Jamie?

[President Eden]

FWIW Jamie, if you think it's best to hold off on revealing until later in the day, that seems reasonable to me as well. My answer was simply meant to make the point that if you're sure this person is not VT, and you have no specific way to differentiate town PR from mafia, then the math favors pressing that person because ~70% of the time in this setup (5/7) you are hitting mafia. Obviously how you press is up to your discretion, but if your read is right then you have a really good shot at hitting mafia.

Also, this is pretty obvious and I'm not going to speculate, but I realize I assumed you weren't a power role yourself. If you are, then the odds rise to ~83% which is incredibly good for day 2.
But regardless ~70% is great for day 2, I would fire away at some point. Doesn't have to be now.

[Bonatogether]

I will say I totally read bona wrong last game

My town vibes are weaker this game but they're not nonexistent.

Yeah, I have been playing this different, mostly cause of a different schedule due to winter break and more hw, but when school starts again tomorrow I'll have more time to put into this.

[Hellenic Riot]

Let's be real Jamie, you going "DAMN SOMEONE MADE SOMETHING THAT MAKES THEM EITHER PR OR SCUM" is such a huge signal for the scumteam to go back and look to see if there is indeed a blatant PR out there that unless you're making the whole thing up then the scumteam has probably all found it anyway

[e.m.c^42]

Wait wait wait I forgot he was playing

##vote Vecna

Ey, this seems fun. Low hanging fruit and all, but still fun.

Why say this and not vote Vecna yourself?

I will ##VOTE VECNA to coax him out of his hidey-hole while I read pages 96 to 101.

Well, why not. ##vote vecna, the more likely he's a wagon the more likely he stays alive.

[President Eden]

FWIW Jamie, if you think it's best to hold off on revealing until later in the day, that seems reasonable to me as well. My answer was simply meant to make the point that if you're sure this person is not VT, and you have no specific way to differentiate town PR from mafia, then the math favors pressing that person because ~70% of the time in this setup (5/7) you are hitting mafia. Obviously how you press is up to your discretion, but if your read is right then you have a really good shot at hitting mafia.

Going a bit meta on this discussion, do you think this whole discussion is townie of Jamie?

Very. He's smart enough to conceivably make something like this up, I just don't think he actually did. Something to keep an eye on if this read never materializes I suppose, but for now I'm pretty sure he's town.
Plus I think he got genuinely mad at me for blowing him off yesterday. I was NOT trying to provoke that reaction, but since it happened, it'd be silly of me not to observe that it'd be crazy for Jamie to freak out at me for correctly observing that he was mafia trying to argue with me in bad faith. His reaction comes from town most of the time there.
I am quite confident Jamie is town and I won't even be thinking about shooting him unless I'm alive at like day 8 or something crazy and it's obvious I've been wrong about everything the whole game.

[aarodactyl]

FWIW Jamie, if you think it's best to hold off on revealing until later in the day, that seems reasonable to me as well. My answer was simply meant to make the point that if you're sure this person is not VT, and you have no specific way to differentiate town PR from mafia, then the math favors pressing that person because ~70% of the time in this setup (5/7) you are hitting mafia. Obviously how you press is up to your discretion, but if your read is right then you have a really good shot at hitting mafia.

Going a bit meta on this discussion, do you think this whole discussion is townie of Jamie?

Very. He's smart enough to conceivably make something like this up, I just don't think he actually did. Something to keep an eye on if this read never materializes I suppose, but for now I'm pretty sure he's town.
Plus I think he got genuinely mad at me for blowing him off yesterday. I was NOT trying to provoke that reaction, but since it happened, it'd be silly of me not to observe that it'd be crazy for Jamie to freak out at me for correctly observing that he was mafia trying to argue with me in bad faith. His reaction comes from town most of the time there.
I am quite confident Jamie is town and I won't even be thinking about shooting him unless I'm alive at like day 8 or something crazy and it's obvious I've been wrong about everything the whole game.

Thanks! I’m townreading him for the same reasons.

[e.m.c^42]

Mafia theory question:

When town should you obvtown or keep something up your sleeve metawise for future games when rolling scum?

The obvious answer is to obvtown as scum, duh. Like me, except that my town play has me wagoned off anyways lol.

[bozotheclown]

Why didn't you say that?

Why did you cast a vote as though your intention was to have as little imact as possible? It feels like you voted for Celaph but really didn't want to say anything or persuade anyone to join you.

DemonRHK voted for Celaph but mentioned Celaph only once. If you saw something significant in DemonRHK's post about Celaph, why not call attention to it?

Very suspect, Damo.

It was my immediate reaction to the flip. I thought it was (or would become) obvious and in fact fairly soon after there were other posts discussing celaph.

Free tell for everyone: I don't make naked votes as scum

False.

You naked voted Foodcoats early in D2 of Mafia 55, in which you were the Mafia [Roleblocker].

##VOTE DAMO

damo did it twice in M62.

[ghug]

He was trying to pressure me to spend all evening playing when we still have a day and a half in the phase.

I believe I just pressured you to vote.

Yeah. But I had plans to make a detailed reads list and I didn’t want to vote until after that. I’ll finish that today and I threw out a vote for your sake last night

My larger goal is to get you throwing out votes more freely and earlily. I know now that it's not scum indicative, but it's still a part of your play that I think is bad.

[ghug]

FWIW Jamie, if you think it's best to hold off on revealing until later in the day, that seems reasonable to me as well. My answer was simply meant to make the point that if you're sure this person is not VT, and you have no specific way to differentiate town PR from mafia, then the math favors pressing that person because ~70% of the time in this setup (5/7) you are hitting mafia. Obviously how you press is up to your discretion, but if your read is right then you have a really good shot at hitting mafia.

Also, this is pretty obvious and I'm not going to speculate, but I realize I assumed you weren't a power role yourself. If you are, then the odds rise to ~83% which is incredibly good for day 2.
But regardless ~70% is great for day 2, I would fire away at some point. Doesn't have to be now.

You forgot the possiblity that he's scum himself

[bozotheclown]

@jamie I’ll vote for option b. At the very least, if you’re completely sure it’s PR or mafia, there no harm in waiting until closer to EOD in case you get more info from reading them.

So that's
Four votes for (a) reveal all at once
and
Three votes for (b) don't tell us yet

If you are serious about letting this vote decide what you do, I think you should tell us what you are talking about.

[e.m.c^42]

Anyway Jamie I clearly am not scum. Ask emc.

At this point you've rolled scum so much that you're simply going to be town for the first few days out of pity for the poor GM.

[bozotheclown]

Mafia theory question:

When town should you obvtown or keep something up your sleeve metawise for future games when rolling scum?

If you know how to appear obviously town, why not do that as scum?

[e.m.c^42]

I would just like to say that while I have used some naughty words, I'm not mad at anybody and I love you all, and I think this is understood, but if it isn't clear to someone out there, I will specifically address you to tell you as much.

It's already clear, but I want a specific address anyways ;D

I love you emc

<3 back atcha'

Thank you, Eden, you have marvelously exquisite taste.

[President Eden]

FWIW Jamie, if you think it's best to hold off on revealing until later in the day, that seems reasonable to me as well. My answer was simply meant to make the point that if you're sure this person is not VT, and you have no specific way to differentiate town PR from mafia, then the math favors pressing that person because ~70% of the time in this setup (5/7) you are hitting mafia. Obviously how you press is up to your discretion, but if your read is right then you have a really good shot at hitting mafia.

Also, this is pretty obvious and I'm not going to speculate, but I realize I assumed you weren't a power role yourself. If you are, then the odds rise to ~83% which is incredibly good for day 2.
But regardless ~70% is great for day 2, I would fire away at some point. Doesn't have to be now.

You forgot the possiblity that he's scum himself

Nah it's irrelevant if he's mafia, he's either making something up or going to out a PR. Plus I just don't think he is. If he's mafia and sells out a teammate for the memes then I don't know what to say lol.

Tell me about Vecna. Why does he wear the mask? Does he not post on weekends? I haven't seen a single instance of him filling an entire page of posts with quoted posts + one-liners. I'm concerned.

[bozotheclown]

PE vs. ghug reminds me of the only game I was previously in with PE, where he and Ezio bussed each other D2.