MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Fluminator]

Nevermind I survived. Someone even more unpopular got voted out first.

[Hellenic Riot]

Aite, time to delve into EoD2, and in particular, EoD2 going forward from a particular post that has stuck in my memory:

PE, I don't think damo is going to happen today

Yea I think ghug is just dead here. If it's ghug/Bona/worcej then most of the leftover votes are likely to break for ghug.

The way this is happening is really sketching me out.

This post, 17 minutes from EoD, is I feel quite important. PE can do maths. The scumteam, unless it's Damo, can also do maths. ghug was at this point looking almost certain, barring a last minute flashwagon (and as it happened, that attempt was on brain, which was even worse for scum), to lose in a straight fight with Bona. So, a scum team member looking at this, and realising this, does in fact have a fairly strong motivation for bussing. If you think ghug is going to die anyway, why not bus him?

So, let's have a look at the wagons at the time of this public assertion:

ghug (5): brainbomb, Chaqa, damo666, Jamie, worcej
Bonatogether (5): bozotheclown, Fluminator, ghug, Hellenic Riot, rdrivera2005
emc (3): aarodactyl, BunnyGo, celaph
Jamie (2): emc, Vecna
BunnyGo (1): Hamilton Brian
damo666 (1): President Eden
bozotheclown (1): Donny Dude
Unvote (1): Bonatogether


Now, one can safely assume Bonatogether will show up and vote ghug and therefore ghug is actually leading. So, each member of the scum team has three or maybe four individual choices:

Option A: Try and save ghug by consolidating onto Bonatogether, despite the fact that it looks likely to fail. Brainbomb's flip from ghug to Bona looks like a scum attempting to do this. Brainbomb was caught and nailed thanks to this (not his fakeclaim, which anyone who's played with bb before could've believed he would do as town).

Option B: Try and save ghug by starting a third wagon that might gain more traction than the Bona wagon is managing to do. Hamilton Brian looks like a scum attempting to do this with votes on BunnyGo and then an attempt to start a wagon on worcej. HB also looked awful because of this, even if it was his last second brainbomb vote that was the real killer for him.

Option C: Cut your losses and bus ghug. If you think he's going to die regardless, which the maths is clearly suggesting, why not?

Option D: Do nothing and hope for the best. Not exactly a real option, but something that could be done.

So, let's go through the possible scum who could've done each option:

------------

SCENARIO A: Consolidating onto Bonatogether in order to save ghug

From this point on, the people who voted Bonatogether are... Brainbomb, BunnyGo, and President Eden. Of these, we already know the alignments of brainbomb and BunnyGo, so the only person who might've made a late consolidation onto Bona to try and save ghug is indeed President Eden. Notably, the known scum member Hamilton Brian did NOT do this, which suggests that at least one scum member did not believe this option would work.

Now, is this because the scum were already on the wagon? Well, if so, they would also know they didn't have the numbers to get Bona killed... So we go back to the maths, except for those three unclears (myself, Bozo, and Fluminator), the maths is now saying that Bona isn't going to die. Therefore Option A isn't actually an option at all. Proceed to Option B or C.

Alrighty then. Let's now look for late posts of the people in question to see whether they started looking for an out of the Bona wagon and therefore that they were trying for a new route forward. Fluminator was absent for over an hour before EoD and thus is irrelevant. I, myself, rule out any of the other proposed wagons and had just shaded the worcej wagon, and I also call out brainbomb for his change off ghug immediately, which I didn't actually recall doing. Nice one me. Anyway, that leaves Bozotheclown: Who does indeed signal a willingness to start/join a third wagon which is on worcej. So Bozo could certainly fit the profile of a scum member who tried to save ghug and realised the Bona wasn't going to cut it. The fact Bozo then went silent from then on (including during the rise and fall of the brainbomb wagon) certainly looks extra bad from that perspective.

And an extra note here: The only person to actually vote worcej whilst Bozo was trying to drum interest up was Hamilton Brian. Bozo himself did not join Brian on worcej. Is this because he wanted to keep some distance between himself and HB, and didn't think the worcej wagon could save ghug, so maybe he should stick on Bona and hope for the best (IE transitioning to Option D)? It's about the only time this game Bozo hasn't followed through on voting worcej, anyway.

-----------

SCENARIO B: Starting a third wagon to save ghug


So, this is probably the best hope for the scum team to save ghug at this stage, given the stalling of both the Bona and emc wagons. And this looks like what known scum member Hamilton Brian was attempting to do: Having tried and failed to get traction on BunnyGo, he then voted worcej, whilst also spat out as many names as possible to consider changing onto:

Anyone at all for Donny, Chaqa, or Bunny? Vecna?

Now not only do this make me immediately throw some townpoints at Donny and Chaqa, but it also shows how scrabbly HB was - Again, a solid sign that he at least didn't think the Bona wagon was going to work. But then... Why didn't this strategy work? webDip has a proud history of flashwagoning people out of nowhere in the last stages of the game. Surely the scum could manufacture another wagon, and someone more convincing than Hamilton could be the one to start it?

ENTER STAGE LEFT: THE BRAINBOMB WAGON - AND THE CROWD GOES WILD!

Boom. Another viable wagon appears, and what's more, it has voters on it! But... Wait. Brainbomb is the godfather. Shit! Not only is that far far worse for the scum to lose than the RB, but by brainbomb being the flashwagon third option, there goes any scum hope had of starting a third option wagon on a townie to save ghug.

So, let's now look at the people on the brainbomb wagon:

First Prize: President Eden. Please applaud. If Eden was doing his best to save ghug, then starting a wagon on the godfather makes no sense whatsoever. Eden clearly wasn't a scum member doing Option A and then transitioning to Option B, because he's just sent Option B up in flames. Nor is this a throwaway vote: Eden quotes ghug in his vote and makes it obvious that ghug has to follow him onto brain. Third wagon dead. Option B dead. Game, set, match.

But before we move on, let's look at who else voted brainbomb:

Enter damo666 and BunnyGo. Bunny is dead, so he exits again. Bye Bunny. damo, on the other hand, as the third vote on brainbomb which really lights the heat on him (It's now ghug 5, Bona 4, brainbomb 3). What on earth is damo's scum motivation for making the godfather a credible counter-candidate to the RB here? If damo wants to bus, he's just going straight to option C and bussing ghug. Damo wasn't on the Bona wagon - he was on the ghug wagon. So we can also throw some truly gigantic town points onto damo for this, because that vote makes no sense whatsoever from a scum perspective.

From there on, only HB's last minute brain vote to try and tie it changes. Thus ends Option B. Requiescat in Pace.

-------------

SCENARIO C: ghug is a dead man walking, I say we kill him.

So, we've seen Eden's maths. We've made the same conclusion. Bona's wagon won't save ghug. At the time of reading, we've either seen HB failing to start a third wagon to save him or - even worse - we've seen President Eden successfully starting a third wagon on the godfather. It's now clear: A scum is going to die, and frankly it has to be ghug.

So, let's first remind ourselves of the people already on ghug at this stage (minus brainbomb):

Chaqa, damo666, Jamie, worcej.

Let's consider these people as potential PRIMARY bussers - And by primary, I mean they were on ghug before it was looking almost certain he would die: They were there for a long time, they were committed, and they may not have the wiggle room to change. Now in damo's case, we already know that's false, because he did change... To brainbomb. Chaqa only voted ghug half an hour before EoD, but he did so at a time when ghug and emc were tied for the lead on four votes each, and Chaqa was on emc. Could this be Chaqa realising earlier than anyone else that ghug was probably going to die and therefore proceeding straight to scum Option C? Maybe, but that would seem unlikely. Chaqa looks fairly solid as a result.

Jamie and worcej had been on ghug for an extremely long time, and they would both have had to be outright desiring ghug died above all else. It's not impossible for scum to aggressively bus like this, but it's pretty rare. Jamie and worcej both therefore look pretty good, and there's no way I'd be willing to vote either until very late in the game as a result. And frankly I expect both of them to be dead long before we get to such a stage. Notably, they were also all present, and therefore all four had the option to bail off the ghug wagon (like brain did and damo sort of did) and chose not to.

Now, that's the potential primary bussers: They voted ghug early, they ensured his wagon was in contention and therefore given the way things were going, that he was probably going to die. Of these, I'm happy to sort Jamie & worcej straight into the townpile, where damo already is. Chaqa, maybe a bit less so, but he's still pretty low down the suspicion order.

From now on, we come to people who voted ghug after it seemed inevitable that a scum member would die (most likely ghug, but the flashwagon on brain factors in here too). These people will be considered as potential SECONDARY bussers: They were not on ghug for long, they did not aggressively want him to die, they did not bring him into contention. But they voted him when it mattered.

Now, notably, nobody joins the ghug wagon in the period where Eden makes his inevitability observation after the death of the emc wagon and when HB is busily trying to start third wagons. This means that all potential secondary busser votes come AFTER Option B has already been exhausted, because PE has started the brainbomb wagon. Which also means that ghug votes from that point on *could* be Option C voters who are doing it not just because ghug is probably doomed, but because the only alternative is far worse (the godfather dying).

Let's now go through these people and their vote timings:

Candidate 1: aarodactyl
https://i.gyazo.com/3df921db0f1b3853ccc ... 8b7b8d.png
https://i.gyazo.com/7fddf0449d321f13e0c ... 5b5db3.png

Well, for a start, aaro - much like Bozo up top in Scenario A, signals a willingness to join potential Option B wagons. Shade is thrown at Donny, Chaqa, Vecna, and emc. The brainbomb wagon, which forms up in the midst of all of this... Is completely ignored. And ghug is voted when the tally is at ghug 5, Bona 4, (emc 3, including aaro), brain 2.

So aaro's vote makes the brain wagon much less likely to succeed, whilst also totally ignoring its existence even despite him discussing multiple other options with people. This is very plausibly a scum in Option C but hoping that Option B is possible. Once again we see someone who is not willing to vote any of those third party options unless other people do (much like Bozo), but in this case, that's less damning as the discussion is much closer to EoD itself. Still, all in all aaro absolutely could have been aiming to protect brainbomb by writing off ghug with his vote, and therefore his secondary bussing credit looks very dry.

The next ghug voter is Hamilton Brian in a vote already mentioned, and which also looks more than anything like an attempt to protect brainbomb - It came just before brainbomb claimed cop. This would back up a theory that the scum at this stage were not scrambling to defend *ghug*, but instead they were scrambling to defend *brainbomb*. Which further colours the aaro vote as a lot less townie than it might otherwise appear.

Post brainbomb cop claim, we now see BunnyGo and damo flip off brain and onto ghug (back to ghug in damo's case). We know Bunny is town, and damo still further increases his towniness here - as he's now both a Primary and a Secondary ghug voter, and the only time he spent off of ghug was the time he spent on brainbomb instead. Very good stuff. We then have HB's attempt to tie it and finally Vecna casting the decisive vote. Thus ends the day.

So in conclusion, when it comes to Scenario C, aarodactyl does not look particularly good for the timing of his ghug vote. Not only did aaro signal willingness to join multiple other wagons should someone get some traction on them going, but his vote timing could easily have been a vote sacrificing ghug to protect brainbomb, and he completely ignored the brain wagon - yet also then called out brain for his claim sounding suspicious, which could be some intense hedging in case brain was flipped... And doesn't really match where aaro's thoughts had looked like being beforehand. Huge red flag there.

----------------

SCENARIO D: Ostriches have the right idea

There are two separate groups here: The people who were present but stayed on vanity wagons, and the people who were totally absent. So we shall divide them accordingly.

Group 1 - Present and Irrelevant: Donny Dude & EMC
Group 2 - Absent and even more irrelevant: celaph & Fluminator

Now, for the group 1 individuals (Donny and EMC), we can once again refer back to the mathematics of ghug's death. They were present. They could surely calculate that ghug was probably going to die in a straight fight with Bona - Which is why if they're scum they never went for Option A. They clearly also chose not to bus, so Option C is out of the equation. That leaves Option B... Did they try and start a third wagon that might save ghug?

Let's start with Donny Dude

What we see here is that he went quiet much earlier in the EoD. In fact, with his vote being 37 minutes before EoD when he started his vanity wagon on Bozo, the votes at that time were actually ghug 4, emc 3, Bona 3, Jamie 2. So he immediately garners some credit with this vote because not only is it NOT a vote on either Bona or emc, but it's also far too soon for him to have concluded that ghug was a dead man walking. His later posts don't give much away, but when I call him out for being on a vanity wagon, Donny shows no interest in shifting from it and in fact casually shades all the wagons by suggesting he doesn't think any of them are scum. Given all of this, Donny looks pretty good. He didn't do anything either to protect or to bus either ghug or brainbomb, and I'm not sure I believe a present scum is going to sit idly by while their two most important teammates are on the block. Of course Donny's silence during the whole rise of the brainbomb wagon is a slight against this - Is he a scum who panicked and went into ostrich mode and buried his head in the sand? But all in all I think Donny looks pretty town through all this.

Now let's move onto EMC:

So we see that emc with half an hour to go is still sitting on Jamie. Now given that at this time, it's ghug 5 emc 3 Bona 3, that could certainly be spun as an unwillingness to vote his teammate when they're the two primary wagons. On Option D ostrich is therefore immediately plausible.

On the other hand, his defence of Bonatogether looks much better: He essentially rules himself out of being able to go for Option A, and this post is in fact one of the ones I must assume that led to PE's initial conclusion that ghug was a dead man walking. This looks much better for emc - He rules himself out of the only strong wagon on town. He also doesn't look to really be trying an Option B - Where we saw Hamilton Brian (and aarodactyl) spitting out multiple names and bozotheclown pushing for a new wagon, emc just happily sits on a wagon he knows is going nowhere (Jamie).

Unfortunately, the other downside is that emc *does* make a defence of brainbomb. So the positives of his inaction are certainly countered by some significant negatives. Could emc have been a scum member who wasn't too bothered if ghug died but was much more bothered had brainbomb been flipped? Yes, possibly. But is there a reason for scum emc to defend Bona whilst ignoring the ghug wagon? Ehhhhh. Maybe, but unconvincing.


-----

Finally we come back Group 2 of Scenario D: The totally absent players of celaph and Fluminator. There's obviously nothing to specifically analyse from them here, so this is a pretty short section. The only thing we *can* analyse is whether or not they could have made a difference - Eden thinks they could singlehandedly have swung it for ghug. I'm less convinced - If we assume that emc would indeed have swung for ghug over Bona when it mattered most (unless he's the partner of one of these two), then that would've required full consolidation onto Bona by the entire scum team to rescue ghug. What I'm less sure on is whether they could have made a decisive difference to a Scenario B where their presence may have allowed the scum to start a third party wagon to rescue ghug - There's no real argument to say that couldn't happen.

When comparing the two, it is notable that if they were scum who were deliberately absent, celaph sitting on emc makes this a completely pointless tactic, but Fluminator *was* on the Bonatogether wagon and therefore could have sat on that and hoped it went through.

Still, any scumread on celaph and Fluminator is going to need more than EoD2 behind it, because there is - Quite obviously - Nothing in said EoD to incriminate (or townread) them.


---------------------

Concluding Reads, when based on EoD2 in isolation:

Very Townie:
Hellenic Riot
damo666 (For being a primary and secondary ghug voter and more importantly for being the person that really made the brainbomb wagon have wheels)
President Eden (brainbomb wagon initiator that obliterated the chance of saving ghug via Option B)

Pretty Townie:
Jamiet99uk (Primary ghug voter)
worcej (Primary ghug voter)
Donny Dude (Chose neither to bus nor protect ghug at a time when it was possible to do either, and further shades all opportunities to join Scenario B wagons)

Fairly Townie:
Chaqa (Primaryish ghug voter)


Null:
celaph (Absent)
Fluminator (Absent, but on the Bona wagon)


Slightly Scummy:
EMC (Present but irrelevant and yet defended brainbomb)

Pretty Scummy:
aarodactyl (Vote timing protected brainbomb, attempted to generate interest in multiple other possibly third party wagons and yet failed to follow through and failed to comment on the brain wagon)

Most Scummy:
bozotheclown (Bona voter who most attempted to generate interest in third party wagons, and yet refused to join the worcej wagon he was signalling interest in when the person on it was known scum Hamilton Brian)

[Hellenic Riot]

Now I hope one of you spends the last 12 minutes reading all of that only to die and realise you just wasted 12 minutes of your life.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm tired and I'm going to post this now:

Celaph or EMC would be my preference for the wagons tomorrow; I feel it's likely at least one of them is scum. I'd go for EMC first, personally. Possibly Fluminator, or for a real wildcard, what if it's President Eden?

Scum: Don't kill me, I've got an important announcement to make tomorrow about whether or not I am or am not or am or not the cop or not.

[Tom Bombadil]

NIGHT HAS ENDED. PLEASE HOLD.

[Tom Bombadil]

Tom had a shit day - the story will continue (just not tonight, sorry)

HELLENIC RIOT HAS DIED. They were Private Angelika Smithson, A VANILLA TOWNIE.

DAY 6 HAS BEGUN. YOU MAY NOW POST

[Donny Dude]

rip hr

[Fluminator]

o7

[damo666]

Wow. Sorry I had you as poss scum HR.

Scum not very good st targeting are they?

##vote Bozo

[Donny Dude]

##vote bozo

[Jamiet99uk]

RIP HR

Sorry you had a bad day, Tom.

That was an odd kill, I can only assume something in HR's great big wall post made them think he was the C[]p?

[Jamiet99uk]

o7

Is this a code?

[damo666]

RIP HR

Sorry you had a bad day, Tom.

That was an odd kill, I can only assume something in HR's great big wall post made them think he was the C[]p?

He was very forceful about EON reveal conditions for the cop to follow. Scum probably took this as a bluff.

The cop is a good gambler are they not?

[Donny Dude]

RIP HR

Sorry you had a bad day, Tom.

That was an odd kill, I can only assume something in HR's great big wall post made them think he was the C[]p?

Why do you believe it to be an odd kill?

[damo666]

o7

Is this a code?

It's a decapitated Bond.

[aarodactyl]

scum are worse than random guessing.

[aarodactyl]

RIP HR

Sorry you had a bad day, Tom.

That was an odd kill, I can only assume something in HR's great big wall post made them think he was the C[]p?

He was very forceful about EON reveal conditions for the cop to follow. Scum probably took this as a bluff.

The cop is a good gambler are they not?

It's that actuarial background

[worcej]

Well, I read it all HR and thanks to the flip, I know you're genuine.

I agree with the bozo~scum baseline and he is definitely in my realm of wanting to flip. Eden can wait in order to verify if we miss here.

##vote bozo

Also, the cop is definitely ballsy as shit with still not claiming... lol...

[worcej]

o7

Is this a code?

It's the salute emoji, commonly used in games like World of Warships or EVE: Online.

[aarodactyl]

##vote bozo

##end