MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

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worcej
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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5841 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:24 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:22 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:19 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:16 pm


That is not the post that I am referring to. This is:
Correct, but I am telling you that you're portraying my vote as just 'agreement' when it morphed more than that over the course of the day and I actually explained the reasoning publicly.

TL;DR - I think you're trying to paint a negative reflection of my voting and are intentionally excluding important context.
The actual vote was just agreement with eden, though.
If all you're looking at is when people vote, then sure.

But by doing that, you're downplaying a lot of context. I voted ghug with 45:10 left in the phase and never moved. If that isn't important to you in any way, then that's on you.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5842 Post by damo666 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:35 pm

@Bona your willingness to self sacrifice is noted but not required.

Vote who you most think is scum. That is more helpful.

And you may as well remove the end vote.

End voting is very scummy in the current circumstances. (@worcej, you too)

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5843 Post by Jamiet99uk » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:39 pm

Damo you haven't mentioned President Eden today.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5844 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:39 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:24 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:17 pm
damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:10 pm


So who would you infer is town if Bona flips town (thus narrowing your scumpool)?
If Bona flips town, I am more inclined to believe that Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, and aarodactyl are all town since they could've swapped off ghug and onto Bona with relative ease.

I'd include you, but I already town you anyways for other reasons.
OK thanks.

I already townread these so as I don't think Bona is scum despite his flapping today I will not be voting Bona because as far as I am concerned I don't really get any extra data.
That's understandable - you're currently on celaph, which strikes me as a random off-wagoner. What information do you plan to gain from this?

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5845 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:40 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:35 pm
@Bona your willingness to self sacrifice is noted but not required.

Vote who you most think is scum. That is more helpful.

And you may as well remove the end vote.

End voting is very scummy in the current circumstances. (@worcej, you too)
Meh, now I'll just keep it to be annoying.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5846 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:41 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:35 pm
@Bona your willingness to self sacrifice is noted but not required.

Vote who you most think is scum. That is more helpful.

And you may as well remove the end vote.

End voting is very scummy in the current circumstances. (@worcej, you too)
##vote celaph

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5847 Post by damo666 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:42 pm

worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:39 pm
damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:24 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:17 pm
If Bona flips town, I am more inclined to believe that Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, and aarodactyl are all town since they could've swapped off ghug and onto Bona with relative ease.

I'd include you, but I already town you anyways for other reasons.
OK thanks.

I already townread these so as I don't think Bona is scum despite his flapping today I will not be voting Bona because as far as I am concerned I don't really get any extra data.
That's understandable - you're currently on celaph, which strikes me as a random off-wagoner. What information do you plan to gain from this?
I'll find out if he's scum or not.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5848 Post by damo666 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:42 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:39 pm
Damo you haven't mentioned President Eden today.
You said he talks shit.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5849 Post by damo666 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:42 pm
worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:39 pm
damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:24 pm


OK thanks.

I already townread these so as I don't think Bona is scum despite his flapping today I will not be voting Bona because as far as I am concerned I don't really get any extra data.
That's understandable - you're currently on celaph, which strikes me as a random off-wagoner. What information do you plan to gain from this?
I'll find out if he's scum or not.
What else did you expect me to say? "None"?

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5850 Post by damo666 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:44 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:41 pm
damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:35 pm
@Bona your willingness to self sacrifice is noted but not required.

Vote who you most think is scum. That is more helpful.

And you may as well remove the end vote.

End voting is very scummy in the current circumstances. (@worcej, you too)
##vote celaph
Thank you.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5851 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:46 pm

Random morning thoughts:
- I don't think HB and ghug vote worcej Day 1 if he's their teammate while there's a growing and viable wagon on HR (that brain is on). Could mean HR is scum, or could mean scum was being opportunistic on voting ND like I thought they were, or both.

- HR's voting history on Day 1 is odd to me. He also did not vote ghug D2.

- Hamilton's vote on Brain Day 2 is still really strange. Was he actually trying to cause a tie? This is one thing that makes me want to consider flipping Bona for information...

- WTF is the cop doing? lol

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5852 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:53 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:46 pm
Random morning thoughts:
- I don't think HB and ghug vote worcej Day 1 if he's their teammate while there's a growing and viable wagon on HR (that brain is on). Could mean HR is scum, or could mean scum was being opportunistic on voting ND like I thought they were, or both.

- HR's voting history on Day 1 is odd to me. He also did not vote ghug D2.

- Hamilton's vote on Brain Day 2 is still really strange. Was he actually trying to cause a tie? This is one thing that makes me want to consider flipping Bona for information...

- WTF is the cop doing? lol
Cop probably scanned brain, vecna, and bunny lmao

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5853 Post by Fluminator » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:54 pm

I know everyone is itching for the cop to reveal, but I agree with whoever is the cop that the right play is to lay low for now. Especially if they only have a few townclears right now.
Everyone chill

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5854 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:54 pm

This may be pre-emptive, but, especially if the Doctor and/or Cop are in the group who DIDN'T vote for ghug, is there merit in a claim today? Doctor can save cop tonight and get him a guaranteed cop scan on someone we decide.

If we assume the cop has gotten let's say 2 or 3 scans (assuming one target was flipped or killed), with one more guaranteed, we can use the PoE and two claim clears to solve this, can't we?

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5855 Post by President Eden » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:55 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:06 pm
President Eden has posted a great deal of well-written prose in this game and appears somehow possessed of supreme confidence in himself despite also appearing to change his mind every hour or two, and being wrong on many occasions.

Makes you think. Could it all be one great performance?
How come this post comes off more performative than anything I've written this game :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5856 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:56 pm

There's 13 players left.

Two PRs can claim. Leaves 11 unclears.

Even worst case, I assume cop can clear or guilt 2 players. Leaves 9.

We flip an unclear today, cop gets a guaranteed scan on another.

IDK, I think this game is pretty solvable with claims, but it can wait another day just fine. I'm just concerned the cop gets ganked tonight without posting scans.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5857 Post by aarodactyl » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:58 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:54 pm
This may be pre-emptive, but, especially if the Doctor and/or Cop are in the group who DIDN'T vote for ghug, is there merit in a claim today? Doctor can save cop tonight and get him a guaranteed cop scan on someone we decide.

If we assume the cop has gotten let's say 2 or 3 scans (assuming one target was flipped or killed), with one more guaranteed, we can use the PoE and two claim clears to solve this, can't we?
If scum miss doctor and cop tonight it means they’ve done worse than random chance

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5858 Post by President Eden » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:01 pm

Cosign everything Chaqa wrote, plus otherwise I'm just going to end up shooting in my POE pool that's ever so slightly too large anyway.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5859 Post by damo666 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:04 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:56 pm
There's 13 players left.

Two PRs can claim. Leaves 11 unclears.

Even worst case, I assume cop can clear or guilt 2 players. Leaves 9.

We flip an unclear today, cop gets a guaranteed scan on another.

IDK, I think this game is pretty solvable with claims, but it can wait another day just fine. I'm just concerned the cop gets ganked tonight without posting scans.
If cop has a guilty on someone who is not clear top wagon they will surely reveal before EOD.

If cop has an inno on someone who is in danger of DK they will surely reveal before EOD.

In neither case they will surely reveal at EON (unless they have had a remarkably unlucky run of scans of course).

I think we should relax regarding cop reveal.

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Re: MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

#5860 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:04 pm

Some math:
Notation is #Town(#TownClear) - #Scum

Currently we sit at 11(0) - 2

PRs claim. Then we're at 11(2) - 2
Cop gives us info. Let's assume no guilty scans, but 2 inno scans (seems reasonable to me), puts us at 11(4) - 2

So we have 4 clears and a small list of 9 to DK going forward. We choose one (the scummiest of the non-ghug voters, likely) and flip them today, then cop scans someone.

We lose the Doc as he's protecting the Cop, but we gain another clear. Then we're either at 9(4) - 2 if we got it wrong today. Flip an unclear, lose the cop overnight.

That puts us to 7(3) - 2. Flip an unclear, next day we're at 5(2) - 2.

Same deal. 3(1) - 2. KYLO.

So... maybe holding is better, but I really think this gives us an opportunity to blow this wide open.

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