MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

Such puzzle. So game. Very deduction.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Unvote

[worcej]

[snip...]

That said, @worcej, I think your conclusions ignore the possibility that a scum put ghug as worse than bona earlier in the day to distance and then realized that they couldn't vote Bona that without looking really scummy.

I don't disregard this possibility and should Bona flip town, that would be the next step in evaluating likelihood of scum.

[worcej]

Before it was very rare for a VT to lie about being a PR. It was considered very anti-town and a risk to outing PRs. And if you were found out lying, you would almost always get daykilled.
To hide the power roles it was basically "never talk about it" instead of "half the players pretend to be it"

I still think as we meta shift that this will lead to some issues down the stretch...

[worcej]

I think Bonatogether's inability to keep his HR/worcej and Hamilton/worcej theories straight make his reads look fabricated. However, I have a feeling where this day is headed with all the cop WIFOM, so I am going to move my vote to celaph for now.

##VOTE celaph

This thought progression doesn't strike me as 'normal' bozo...

[worcej]

What info do we get if Bona flips town?

It would highlight some scum ineptitude and would help me narrow down options for who the last two scum players are.

[worcej]

President Eden has posted a great deal of well-written prose in this game and appears somehow possessed of supreme confidence in himself despite also appearing to change his mind every hour or two, and being wrong on many occasions.

Makes you think. Could it all be one great performance?

Somewhat floated this idea out there already.

[worcej]

Bonatogether self-voting and end-voting on himself isn't clever but I'm torn between whether it means he's frustrated town, or scum that's been told to self-vote in order to look like frustrated town.

This seems plausible, but also a stretch.

I do think a Bona flip opens a lot more of the VCA for D2 and he is the obvious choice for flipping due to his reads not making sense.

[Bonatogether]

[snip...]

That said, @worcej, I think your conclusions ignore the possibility that a scum put ghug as worse than bona earlier in the day to distance and then realized that they couldn't vote Bona that without looking really scummy.

I don't disregard this possibility and should Bona flip town, that would be the next step in evaluating likelihood of scum.

@celaph @worcej this is the list of people who voted ghug and are still alive: worcej, Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, aarodactyl, damo666

Worcej said that he was just agreeing with Eden with his vote, although he never moved his vote afterwards, even when Eden switched around. Didn't post anything about me.

Jamie is obvtown imo, but he joked (?) that I was noob scum with ghug, and didn't mention me much else. He also caught ghug, so I don't think it's him.

Chaqa is actually pretty likely under this theory - he said he preferred either ghug or me for most of the day, then an hour before EoD said he'd vote me or emc, then he votes ghug.

aaro has consistent reads. He put me in Tier 2 and ghug in Tier 4, and then voted ghug.

damo put both me and ghug as * (more asterisk is more scum), and he switched several times throughout the day between worcej, then ghug and I. Notably he had to reduce worcej from a ** to a * to justify a vote on me.

[damo666]

[snip...]

That said, @worcej, I think your conclusions ignore the possibility that a scum put ghug as worse than bona earlier in the day to distance and then realized that they couldn't vote Bona that without looking really scummy.

I don't disregard this possibility and should Bona flip town, that would be the next step in evaluating likelihood of scum.

@celaph @worcej this is the list of people who voted ghug and are still alive: worcej, Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, aarodactyl, damo666

Worcej said that he was just agreeing with Eden with his vote, although he never moved his vote afterwards, even when Eden switched around. Didn't post anything about me.

Jamie is obvtown imo, but he joked (?) that I was noob scum with ghug, and didn't mention me much else. He also caught ghug, so I don't think it's him.

Chaqa is actually pretty likely under this theory - he said he preferred either ghug or me for most of the day, then an hour before EoD said he'd vote me or emc, then he votes ghug.

aaro has consistent reads. He put me in Tier 2 and ghug in Tier 4, and then voted ghug.

damo put both me and ghug as * (more asterisk is more scum), and he switched several times throughout the day between worcej, then ghug and I. Notably he had to reduce worcej from a ** to a * to justify a vote on me.

Untrue. Worcej's posts became significantly townier. Nothing to do with you at all.

[damo666]

What info do we get if Bona flips town?

It would highlight some scum ineptitude and would help me narrow down options for who the last two scum players are.

So who would you infer is town if Bona flips town (thus narrowing your scumpool)?

[Bonatogether]

damo put both me and ghug as * (more asterisk is more scum), and he switched several times throughout the day between worcej, then ghug and I. Notably he had to reduce worcej from a ** to a * to justify a vote on me.

Untrue. Worcej's posts became significantly townier. Nothing to do with you at all.

My point is still that you had to fiddle with your reads to get a vote on me or ghug

[worcej]

@celaph @worcej this is the list of people who voted ghug and are still alive: worcej, Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, aarodactyl, damo666

Worcej said that he was just agreeing with Eden with his vote, although he never moved his vote afterwards, even when Eden switched around. Didn't post anything about me.

This isn't the whole picture - I exchanged with ghug directly about why I was voting him and pointed out that he was off and almost entirely defensive, which was not typical town!ghug behavior when he gets pushed in the past.

This is the post specifically:

That was D1 that, we are now on D2 and he expressed similar laziness. That's the beef I have with it.

Do you buy Jamie's argument that I scumslipped?

No - but that rabbit hole is a definite town!Jamie move, so I town him like Eden is.

In general, you’re just here to me. This is a concern in that I expect more pot stirring and action, but really you’re just on the defense.

And I didn't just listen to Eden and go 'good case, you got my vote', I agreed and shared his opinions and just didn't take the time/effort to type the same stuff out about ghug since he already did.

And yes, I didn't post about you then because I didn't scum you (and still don't honestly), but there is so much interaction and lack of interaction surrounding you from the three known scum that it's important to explicitly know your alignment at this point to ascertain what the hell the scum team were doing on EOD2.

[Bonatogether]

@celaph @worcej this is the list of people who voted ghug and are still alive: worcej, Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, aarodactyl, damo666

Worcej said that he was just agreeing with Eden with his vote, although he never moved his vote afterwards, even when Eden switched around. Didn't post anything about me.

This isn't the whole picture - I exchanged with ghug directly about why I was voting him and pointed out that he was off and almost entirely defensive, which was not typical town!ghug behavior when he gets pushed in the past.

This is the post specifically:

Do you buy Jamie's argument that I scumslipped?

No - but that rabbit hole is a definite town!Jamie move, so I town him like Eden is.

In general, you’re just here to me. This is a concern in that I expect more pot stirring and action, but really you’re just on the defense.

And I didn't just listen to Eden and go 'good case, you got my vote', I agreed and shared his opinions and just didn't take the time/effort to type the same stuff out about ghug since he already did.

And yes, I didn't post about you then because I didn't scum you (and still don't honestly), but there is so much interaction and lack of interaction surrounding you from the three known scum that it's important to explicitly know your alignment at this point to ascertain what the hell the scum team were doing on EOD2.

That is not the post that I am referring to. This is:

Also, ##vote ghug

Eden made the point, just agreeing with it via my vote.

[worcej]

What info do we get if Bona flips town?

It would highlight some scum ineptitude and would help me narrow down options for who the last two scum players are.

So who would you infer is town if Bona flips town (thus narrowing your scumpool)?

If Bona flips town, I am more inclined to believe that Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, and aarodactyl are all town since they could've swapped off ghug and onto Bona with relative ease.

I'd include you, but I already town you anyways for other reasons.

[worcej]

@celaph @worcej this is the list of people who voted ghug and are still alive: worcej, Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, aarodactyl, damo666

Worcej said that he was just agreeing with Eden with his vote, although he never moved his vote afterwards, even when Eden switched around. Didn't post anything about me.

This isn't the whole picture - I exchanged with ghug directly about why I was voting him and pointed out that he was off and almost entirely defensive, which was not typical town!ghug behavior when he gets pushed in the past.

This is the post specifically:

No - but that rabbit hole is a definite town!Jamie move, so I town him like Eden is.

In general, you’re just here to me. This is a concern in that I expect more pot stirring and action, but really you’re just on the defense.

And I didn't just listen to Eden and go 'good case, you got my vote', I agreed and shared his opinions and just didn't take the time/effort to type the same stuff out about ghug since he already did.

And yes, I didn't post about you then because I didn't scum you (and still don't honestly), but there is so much interaction and lack of interaction surrounding you from the three known scum that it's important to explicitly know your alignment at this point to ascertain what the hell the scum team were doing on EOD2.

That is not the post that I am referring to. This is:

Also, ##vote ghug

Eden made the point, just agreeing with it via my vote.

Correct, but I am telling you that you're portraying my vote as just 'agreement' when it morphed more than that over the course of the day and I actually explained the reasoning publicly.

TL;DR - I think you're trying to paint a negative reflection of my voting and are intentionally excluding important context.

[aarodactyl]

@donny I reread everyone and have some changes related to my earlier list. My problem is that I see reasons to townread almost everyone to some degree. One consequence of that is I think I can post decent defenses for Bona, Bozo, and myself. Of these I think Bona makes for the best kill as I have the easiest time building a scum Bona narrative.

Jamie -- Obvtown for all the same reasons as last time.
Aaro -- Very likely town. I think he is very self-reflective and generally acting pro-towny. I think aaro's annoyance with ghug's D2 tunnel threat feels genuine. I don't think that aaro's reads (here and here) come from a SvS place and his D2 ghug vote looks good. I also like their movement from EMC to HB feels natural and looks good after the HB flip.
PE -- Very likely town. Maybe this will age like milk, but the overall arch of PE this game reminds me of kgray last game. A towny who does most things correctly, but will be targeted long term for VCA. I stand by my earlier read that I think their townread of me comes from a towny place as well as my more recent comments that I think they look good after Bunny flipped.
HR -- Likely town. Will skip as I just explained most of my thoughts on him. The only scum HR arguments I've heard have come from HB and Bona and are/were full of holes.
Worcej -- Lean town. I don't think the ghug Worcej D2 interactions were SvS. I think Worcej looks good for his vote on ghug D2. I'm inclined to give him a town point or two for weird posts D3.
Donny -- Town lean. Two things scare me about Donny. The first is that I feel the post he is getting the most town credit for is not his. Secondly, I see some of myself in his play: he makes insightful comments, but isn't the one to lead a push. He has a lot of good posts, but it doesn't feel like they materialized into good votes D2. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt because I think he deserves it, but if there is a deep threat, I think it’s him.
Flum/Durga -- Lean town, but don't hate killing and would love to have a cop scan for. The obvious scar on their gameplay is their defense of scum most notably ghug, but otherwise I don't mind their play. I think a lot of Durga's D1 is pro-town. Flum's D2 looks like town Flum from last game though maybe he changed his style after I commented on it then. I struggle a bit with his inactivity, but I'm tempted to call in NAI for now though I'd like to see more in the future.
Bozo — Town lean to null. Bozo hyper-focuses on details in the thread. Sometimes I think he is focusing on a really key detail and sometimes it feels like he’s focusing on something way off target. That makes him hard to evaluate particularly with a VCA that is meh at best. For example, he has very good analysis of both HB and BB, but I dislike his push on ND/Worcej.
Bona -- Lean town to null, though I don't hate flipping. Intentionally left off for later.
Chaqa -- Town lean to null. I worry that I'm giving Chaqa extra scum points out of fear. I don't think the D1 ghug Chaqa interactions were scum theater. His general play strikes me as pro-town. I'm seeing a lot more interactions with conf scum than last game. I think this pressure on HB looks good post flip.
Damo -- Town lean to null. I think his reasoning this game has been much easier to follow than last. I think his pressure on HB looks good. Overall I think damo looks good in VCA, but I love basically nothing he has posted.
EMC -- Null. I am not a particularly big fan of EMC's D1-3. It felt like he was speaking a lot, but not saying much. I struggle to point so someone he has pushed before HB and even then he shaded the HB wagon. It felt like the most thought he had given to anything is Bozo's colors. In terms of VCA, he doesn't look good. Lastly, I don't entirely agree with Chaqa's idea that scum EMC would shoot him. I'm not sure what to think about rdr, but I think bunny would definitely be a higher priority kill than Chaqa.

Do you scum read anyone? Because you’re not in any of your reads

[damo666]

damo put both me and ghug as * (more asterisk is more scum), and he switched several times throughout the day between worcej, then ghug and I. Notably he had to reduce worcej from a ** to a * to justify a vote on me.

Untrue. Worcej's posts became significantly townier. Nothing to do with you at all.

My point is still that you had to fiddle with your reads to get a vote on me or ghug

No. If and when my reads change I alter my vote if necessary to the greatest scumread with a viable wagon.

[Bonatogether]

This isn't the whole picture - I exchanged with ghug directly about why I was voting him and pointed out that he was off and almost entirely defensive, which was not typical town!ghug behavior when he gets pushed in the past.

This is the post specifically:


And I didn't just listen to Eden and go 'good case, you got my vote', I agreed and shared his opinions and just didn't take the time/effort to type the same stuff out about ghug since he already did.

And yes, I didn't post about you then because I didn't scum you (and still don't honestly), but there is so much interaction and lack of interaction surrounding you from the three known scum that it's important to explicitly know your alignment at this point to ascertain what the hell the scum team were doing on EOD2.

That is not the post that I am referring to. This is:

Also, ##vote ghug

Eden made the point, just agreeing with it via my vote.

Correct, but I am telling you that you're portraying my vote as just 'agreement' when it morphed more than that over the course of the day and I actually explained the reasoning publicly.

TL;DR - I think you're trying to paint a negative reflection of my voting and are intentionally excluding important context.

The actual vote was just agreement with eden, though.

[damo666]

It would highlight some scum ineptitude and would help me narrow down options for who the last two scum players are.

So who would you infer is town if Bona flips town (thus narrowing your scumpool)?

If Bona flips town, I am more inclined to believe that Jamiet99uk, Chaqa, and aarodactyl are all town since they could've swapped off ghug and onto Bona with relative ease.

I'd include you, but I already town you anyways for other reasons.

OK thanks.

I already townread these so as I don't think Bona is scum despite his flapping today I will not be voting Bona because as far as I am concerned I don't really get any extra data.