MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Hellenic Riot]

It doesn't really make sense for Bona to be mafia here.

ghug was the most valuable mafia role, and were Bona mafia, the reasoning from HR, rivera, et al was really solid. Bona should have been bused to save ghug. A third front shouldn't have been opened on brainbomb.

If Bona is town, then the mafia might have been wary enough of the optics of dogpiling a townie to save the most powerful mafia role to hesitate. A third front splits up the votes enough that they can consolidate at the last minute to ensure ghug doesn't die.

I don't think the RB is more valuable than the Godfather, personally.

Granting that premise and assuming for sake of argument that Bona is not the Godfather, do you agree with my conclusion?

Perhaps. I feel like that EoD only makes sense if (at least) one of Bona or Brain is scum. If Bona is scum then ghug's aversion to that wagon and decision to make a third one could make reasonable sense - Either because A) He didn't want to bus, or B) He didn't think the Bona wagon would go through even if there was bussing, which is plausible given how long it had been a thing without many others signalling interest. And if both are scum I can definitely see ghug wanting to bus brain over wanting to bus Bona, because Bona is a lot more likely to be able to sneak through to the endgame (especially if teammate Brain died as his counterwagon). But my most likely outcome is indeed Brain-scum, Bona probably not.


And yes, if Bona is the godfather then that would rather invalidate that conclusion, as I think the godfather is much more important than the roleblocker. The RB dying doesn't really give us any more info. The GF dying instantly clears every single inno the cop ever gets.

[Bonatogether]

@brain there’s a good chance you’re going to die tomorrow (but really three real days) since II think you’re near the top of a lot of scum lists. So you might as well churn out a lot of really good reads so if you’re town, we can ignore them

lol

[President Eden]

I think you are right about the Godfather being a stronger role than the Roleblocker, for what it's worth.

But now that I think about it...

PE, I don't think damo is going to happen today

Yea I think ghug is just dead here. If it's ghug/Bona/worcej then most of the leftover votes are likely to break for ghug.

The way this is happening is really sketching me out.

In the world where ghug is Roleblocker and Bona is Godfather, opening a third front is silly. Their less valuable power role was about to get killed. Why risk shuffling the votes around with a third front and potentially end up losing your more valuable power role? At that point it's better for ghug to distance from Bona and hold the L.

If Bona is Goon, then again opening a third front is silly, except they're supposed to bus Bona instead of letting ghug hold the L.

If Bona is town, then maybe it makes sense to open a third front that would shake up the votes, with the hope that the shakeup breaks against Bona in the end. A straight up dogpile on Bona would be too risky, but if I'm leading a yeetwagon on brainbomb, they have their shakeup and they didn't even have to do it.

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

[Bonatogether]

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

[aarodactyl]

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

[aarodactyl]

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

To add on to this, surely the real cop would know not to reveal until night was over

[President Eden]

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

If you and brainbomb are both town, the mafia is indifferent to which of you two die; they just want to save ghug. If they felt they could win the ghug vs you fight straight up, they wouldn't bother with trying to push brainbomb, they would just push you. It follows that they thought they couldn't win that fight.
In that case, they would be incentivized to shake things up by starting a yeetwagon on brainbomb. If they accidentally pull predominantly you-voters onto brainbomb, then they haven't lost anything compared to staying pat; ghug is dead in either case. But if the brainbomb voters mostly come from the ghug wagon, then there's a chance that they split the not-you votes and put the you-voters on top.

If you are town but brainbomb is mafia, then instead of being indifferent to which of you or brainbomb die, they're going to have a preference that you die. The rest of the logic is the exact same: they wanted to split the not-you vote so that your wagon won. If they accidentally killed brainbomb off somehow, then they at least saved their Roleblocker (which also makes it likely that if brainbomb is mafia, he is Goon).

Hence, brainbomb's alignment is irrelevant to reading you. The incentives favor their play regardless of brainbomb's alignment, if you are town.

[Bonatogether]

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

brain does this every game apparently. It plays to his town meta.

[President Eden]

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

To add on to this, surely the real cop would know not to reveal until night was over

This is a great point.

brainbomb, you asked if we had questions. Here's one. Why did you retract immediately after ghug flipped?

[Donny Dude]

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

[President Eden]

I disagree. On the assumption that I'm town, then they could potentially save their roleblocker by sacrificing a goon (brain).

If brain is town, then why would they push him? He's some VT, functionally the same as me, but less scumread. If he's scum, they can point out all the scum things he's done, and brain can intentionally do scummy things to draw the vote (like a preemptive defense, and claiming cop) and their rber is saved for at least a day or two.

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

brain does this every game apparently. It plays to his town meta.

It's the retraction that's weird here. If brainbomb is town then it's totally free to maintain your claim, no matter how implausible it is, until the next day at least.

[Bonatogether]

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

To add on to this, surely the real cop would know not to reveal until night was over
[/quote]

Exactly, so we know he was lying. Therefore he is either VT or scum, and claiming and then retracting cop plays into his town meta. It's wifom if this is scum!brain or town!brain, but I believe that it is scum!brain trying to look town.

[Donny Dude]

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

Though I direct this at Eden, bona and aaro feel free to chime in.

[Bonatogether]

It's the retraction that's weird here. If brainbomb is town then it's totally free to maintain your claim, no matter how implausible it is, until the next day at least.

so he's scum and we can vote him tomorrow

[Bonatogether]

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

Though I direct this at Eden, bona and aaro feel free to chime in.

If there was a similar occurance (SvT, then mafia add a S to split the vote and get the town out), then worcej and Hellenic would both be scum. I think we should vote one out the day after we vote brain so that we can determine if that's what happened. There's already some sus on worcej, so he's a viable target for this even without this.

[aarodactyl]

Why does brain hard claim cop and then retract if VT? At the very least, they’d retract after the night phase

To add on to this, surely the real cop would know not to reveal until night was over

Exactly, so we know he was lying. Therefore he is either VT or scum, and claiming and then retracting cop plays into his town meta. It's wifom if this is scum!brain or town!brain, but I believe that it is scum!brain trying to look town.
[/quote]

I think it's somewhat likely that vt!brain did the cop thing to live and then panicked and didn't want to out the real cop, but I think that's unlikely.

[President Eden]

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

I like to think that we've had an incredibly pro-town atmosphere this game that will prevent those kinds of pitfalls. There's very little tunneling, and the few significant TvT arguments (e.g. Jamie and myself) resolved themselves without being major distractions to the thread. We just have to avoid complacency and apathy, which is what derailed town last game.

EOD1 and EOD2 were definitely similar in the sense that each had three meaningful wagons, yea. The trouble I have in comparing them is that we don't know that we had a mafia up for grabs at EOD1. A lot of the meaningful speculation about other wagons' alignments in EOD2 has come from the fact that ghug flipped mafia.

Solving worcej's alignment would be helpful to understanding day 1 for sure. I think ghug and Durga were probably the only two mafia on that wagon, but I've mentioned before that the specific interpersonal dynamics among those two and ND would make a bus there appreciably likely when it would normally be a ridiculous play. It does bother me how much my two mafia suspects from that wagon were shouting down the HR kill and trying to steer people toward ND... I'm not sure that I can get anything productive out of this though lol.

[President Eden]

To add on to this, surely the real cop would know not to reveal until night was over

Exactly, so we know he was lying. Therefore he is either VT or scum, and claiming and then retracting cop plays into his town meta. It's wifom if this is scum!brain or town!brain, but I believe that it is scum!brain trying to look town.

I think it's somewhat likely that vt!brain did the cop thing to live and then panicked and didn't want to out the real cop, but I think that's unlikely.

Given a certain vote to which I don't wish to call any unnecessary attention, I will say this is actually somewhat plausible.

[Donny Dude]

That is a good point on eod1. And I do agree on the pro town atmosphere too.
I am going to compile a post on things starting on d1 where brain and ghug agree and any stark differences I catch.
This I figure may help us to figure out their mindset and how they react to others.

[Bonatogether]

Exactly, so we know he was lying. Therefore he is either VT or scum, and claiming and then retracting cop plays into his town meta. It's wifom if this is scum!brain or town!brain, but I believe that it is scum!brain trying to look town.

I think it's somewhat likely that vt!brain did the cop thing to live and then panicked and didn't want to out the real cop, but I think that's unlikely.

Given a certain vote to which I don't wish to call any unnecessary attention, I will say this is actually somewhat plausible.

Brain's smart enough to know that a dead vt is better than an outed cop. He also never got above 3rd place/4 votes. There was no reason for him to panic.