Mafia 57 Matrix

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Hellenic Riot
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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3601 Post by Hellenic Riot » Wed Jul 22, 2020 1:36 am

goldfinger0303 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:35 pm
I'm not sure what my misdirection antics are either. I've just been trying to educate HB a little today.

Jamiet, ghug - you are my top town reads left alive. I think the three of us should decide one person to push, and stick together. If we are not mutually each others top town reads, work with your top two town reads and consolidate on one person.

There are five scum left. If we spread out on too many wagons, they can blitz at last second. We should make sure that's not possible. I currently am pretty comfortable on Fox.

I think bo/Ezio can also reasonable be considered town after the ship reveals - I think Nanook was off kilter in scumreading him, because scum were already hitting the ship hard before bo even came aboard, and didn't change tactics after. Perhaps we form a bloc with them as well.

I still think emc is unlikely to be scum, given the D1 and D3 histories.

I think there's likely scum in the yoyo/therul and temasek/peterlund spots. I would consider moving there as well.
What part of the D1 & D3 histories makes you think emc is unlikely to be scum?

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3602 Post by goldfinger0303 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:36 am

I would've thought Jamie and I would be on the same page with emc. But here's how I see it.

I know I'm town, and I have a good feeling Jamiet's town.

That means the *entire* wagon on emc D1 was town, and almost the *entire* D3 wagon was on town.

First off, that means nobody saved emc. No scum D1 tried to save emc. D3 I'll have to look back at the post history.

Second - what are the odds of - for two consecutive days - (I'm discarding D2 as an actual day) *no* scum bussed their buddy who was drawing heat? I think it low.

Behaviorally, emc hasn't been very towny at all. But simply by wagon analysis I don't think he's scum.

Oh, and @Jamiet - I'm more on Fox than HR at the moment. Tell me why I'm wrong about emc.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3603 Post by peterlund » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:44 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:00 pm
Lynch HR, Gold and emc. Look closely at bo and Jamiet, don´t let them fly under the radar.

See you.
For now I go with Rdriveras last words. ##vote HR

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3604 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:23 pm

peterlund wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:44 am
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:00 pm
Lynch HR, Gold and emc. Look closely at bo and Jamiet, don´t let them fly under the radar.

See you.
For now I go with Rdriveras last words. ##vote HR
Well, one of Bunny's pieces of advice was "listen to the dead." I had a difficult time not being suspicious of them but that seems to be decent advice.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3605 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:46 pm

All that being said, I'd challenge RDR on some of those.

I think Jamie is town; there's palpable frustration in their tone. We're losing this quite soundly, and Jamie's passion is clear.
Goldie: I think town unless offering tidbits of advice, tutelage, etc is a way of ensuring my vote doesn't land on them. What's that strategy called in mafia parlance?
HR: not sure, leg work today
Bismarck: not sure
Ghug: not sure
Tom: unsure
Fox: not sure, lots of speculation and leading wagon
EMC: thought they were scum based on movement around D1 end votes; I felt like they were being protected and I still don't feel I've read anything that strongly suggests otherwise.
Temasek/replacement: performance in the game was distant and unengaged. Scum.
Therul/replacement: same as Temasek; scum
Bo/replacement: unsure; speculation (?) was they were on the ship along with Goldie and one is scum and I need to check if that's been refuted. If it is true and my thoughts on Goldie are such, then Bo is scum.

I am thinking of dropping the vote on EMC. I'd like to see the tie drive votes around. I would think that would drive a decisive commitment on someone, plus a defence if they really are town. I don't want to add a new person as a vote as I don't want us to get so far split .

##Vote EMC

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3606 Post by Hellenic Riot » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:44 pm

goldfinger0303 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:36 am
I would've thought Jamie and I would be on the same page with emc. But here's how I see it.

I know I'm town, and I have a good feeling Jamiet's town.

That means the *entire* wagon on emc D1 was town, and almost the *entire* D3 wagon was on town.

First off, that means nobody saved emc. No scum D1 tried to save emc. D3 I'll have to look back at the post history.

Second - what are the odds of - for two consecutive days - (I'm discarding D2 as an actual day) *no* scum bussed their buddy who was drawing heat? I think it low.

Behaviorally, emc hasn't been very towny at all. But simply by wagon analysis I don't think he's scum.

Oh, and @Jamiet - I'm more on Fox than HR at the moment. Tell me why I'm wrong about emc.
What the hell is the logic here? You townread everyone who voted emc, so that means that no scum tried to save emc? That's like... The complete opposite of what a logical conclusion is there.

Not to mention the fact that both me & Tom both openly said we were voting to save emc at times, so concluding that emc wasn't saved by anyone at all is so absolutely flawed that I don't understand how you can possibly jump through this many hoops at all.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3607 Post by Hellenic Riot » Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:47 pm

peterlund wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:44 am
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:00 pm
Lynch HR, Gold and emc. Look closely at bo and Jamiet, don´t let them fly under the radar.

See you.
For now I go with Rdriveras last words. ##vote HR
Why did u prioritise me over his other last words?

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3608 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:20 pm

Hellenic Riot wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:47 pm


Why did u prioritise me over his other last words?
Fair point, HR. What else are you basing your vote on, other than RDR’s words, Peter?

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3609 Post by ghug » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:27 pm

Hellenic Riot wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 2:44 pm
goldfinger0303 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:36 am
I would've thought Jamie and I would be on the same page with emc. But here's how I see it.

I know I'm town, and I have a good feeling Jamiet's town.

That means the *entire* wagon on emc D1 was town, and almost the *entire* D3 wagon was on town.

First off, that means nobody saved emc. No scum D1 tried to save emc. D3 I'll have to look back at the post history.

Second - what are the odds of - for two consecutive days - (I'm discarding D2 as an actual day) *no* scum bussed their buddy who was drawing heat? I think it low.

Behaviorally, emc hasn't been very towny at all. But simply by wagon analysis I don't think he's scum.

Oh, and @Jamiet - I'm more on Fox than HR at the moment. Tell me why I'm wrong about emc.
What the hell is the logic here? You townread everyone who voted emc, so that means that no scum tried to save emc? That's like... The complete opposite of what a logical conclusion is there.

Not to mention the fact that both me & Tom both openly said we were voting to save emc at times, so concluding that emc wasn't saved by anyone at all is so absolutely flawed that I don't understand how you can possibly jump through this many hoops at all.
There's also the fact that the D1 wagon materialized in like five minutes and wouldn't have given scum time to bus.

The D3 point is interesting, but would kinda make me suspect HB more.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3610 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:42 pm

ghug wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:27 pm

The D3 point is interesting, but would kinda make me suspect HB more.
Why?

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3611 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:00 pm

With town's goal to be trying to coalesce on a reasonable suspect, I would expect there to be greater discussion.

Why aren't EMC and Foxcastle making an impassioned plea about why they aren't suitable wagons? Because they both are? With 5 hours to go, there's nothing.

Why aren't the replacements putting in anything? Because they're scum too?

Is Jamie scum? They've played a very engaged game up until the past 2 days, but to go quiet now?

I know I'm just throwing darts in random directions. I'm not seeing anything outstandingly suspicious in words, and the conflicts between players aren't really revealing anything to me.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3612 Post by ghug » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:04 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:42 pm
ghug wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:27 pm

The D3 point is interesting, but would kinda make me suspect HB more.
Why?
Because you and gold are the only identity-unknown players who voted emc day 3, and gold is right that it's unlikely nobody was busing.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3613 Post by Jamiet99uk » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:07 pm

Less than 5 hours left.

EMC has not posted or voted.

My vote is staying on him.

He has no fucking excuses left.

##END

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3614 Post by e.m.c^42 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:12 pm

Hi Jamie, sorry that you are so agitated, you are correct in that I have no excuses lol

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3615 Post by e.m.c^42 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:15 pm

I don't really have any other updated reads. Everything is already out there.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3616 Post by e.m.c^42 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:19 pm

re: Jamie's case on HR. I can see it in the sense that his mild detachment-neutrality is scum-based rather than town, due to it not being as alignment indicative as other styles of play.

I don't think the fact that he didn't explicitly townread me until trying to save is scummy, as I didn't realise I townread rivera until it was close and the wagons were up.

I kind of do not read as much aggression in his posts as you are claiming, but perhaps that's just fault on me? Some parts have merit but overall he would be a third or fourth option vote for me atm.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3617 Post by ghug » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:20 pm

e.m.c^42 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:15 pm
I don't really have any other updated reads. Everything is already out there.
Is it?

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3618 Post by Hamilton Brian » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:26 pm

ghug wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:04 pm

Because you and gold are the only identity-unknown players who voted emc day 3, and gold is right that it's unlikely nobody was busing.
That’s a reasonable hypothesis. Gold went back and forth though, before landing on TFB.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3619 Post by e.m.c^42 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:27 pm

At this point PoE probably gives best results lol

Townreads on HB, theryoyo, bosezio, still hold pretty strong.

The townread on Fox does not hold as much, so am reconsidering. Gold has moved up slightly in towniness but I can't shake off suspicions. Tombomb...kind of level as Gold. HR I still townread enough. Ghug, if he's scum, we're duly fucked lol

Petersek I still haven't a clue. Jamie I find scummy but since no-one else has really engaged with that case, a bit concerned I'm just lost and pinning things that aren't there.

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Re: Mafia 57 Matrix

#3620 Post by e.m.c^42 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:28 pm

ghug wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:20 pm
e.m.c^42 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:15 pm
I don't really have any other updated reads. Everything is already out there.
Is it?
Well, the important stuff is. Based on how they hold to the reasons of the read from time of posting to now is most of the change, but there hasn't been much.

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