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Claesar wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:22 am

I know France has been quiet so far. Squigs isn't France and never was. I'm going to be doing some press for France soon.. Bit busy at the moment though. Stay tuned!

Last turn, TMOSW was impersonating France, but I guess now they'll have to find yet another country (Turkey, maybe?).

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:36 am

Claesar wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:22 am

I know France has been quiet so far. Squigs isn't France and never was. I'm going to be doing some press for France soon.. Bit busy at the moment though. Stay tuned!

Last turn, TMOSW was impersonating France, but I guess now they'll have to find yet another country (Turkey, maybe?).

I don’t think I will! I think Claesar must be England, considering how much they want me to get out of there.

Germany: I will accept your offer of working against England. As such, I will be moving Bur-Bel. If you attack Bur or bounce me in Bel though, all bets are off of course.

England: Sorry.

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:41 pm

I don’t think I will! I think Claesar must be England, considering how much they want me to get out of there.

Germany: I will accept your offer of working against England. As such, I will be moving Bur-Bel. If you attack Bur or bounce me in Bel though, all bets are off of course.

England: Sorry.

We'll see who's France from the moves this turn! If Squigs thinks it's you, he'll stab. If he understands it's me, he would be wise not to.

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:41 pm

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:36 am

Claesar wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:22 am

I know France has been quiet so far. Squigs isn't France and never was. I'm going to be doing some press for France soon.. Bit busy at the moment though. Stay tuned!

Last turn, TMOSW was impersonating France, but I guess now they'll have to find yet another country (Turkey, maybe?).

I don’t think I will! I think Claesar must be England, considering how much they want me to get out of there.

Germany: I will accept your offer of working against England. As such, I will be moving Bur-Bel. If you attack Bur or bounce me in Bel though, all bets are off of course.

England: Sorry.

I like Claesar France more, because otherwise I probably have him as an immediate neighbor and I'm scared of such a possibility.

-with due respect, k.u.k. Minister of Silly Walks.

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:58 pm

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:41 pm

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:36 am

Last turn, TMOSW was impersonating France, but I guess now they'll have to find yet another country (Turkey, maybe?).

I don’t think I will! I think Claesar must be England, considering how much they want me to get out of there.

Germany: I will accept your offer of working against England. As such, I will be moving Bur-Bel. If you attack Bur or bounce me in Bel though, all bets are off of course.

England: Sorry.

I like Claesar France more, because otherwise I probably have him as an immediate neighbor and I'm scared of such a possibility.

-with due respect, k.u.k. Minister of Silly Walks.

So that means that you do not think that Claesar is England? Why not?

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:06 pm

So that means that you do not think that Claesar is England? Why not?

If I was England, I'd be agreeing to Squigs' proposal while impersonating France. "Yes, I'll go to Belgium" should guarantee a German stab here.

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:06 pm

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:58 pm

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:41 pm

I don’t think I will! I think Claesar must be England, considering how much they want me to get out of there.

Germany: I will accept your offer of working against England. As such, I will be moving Bur-Bel. If you attack Bur or bounce me in Bel though, all bets are off of course.

England: Sorry.

I like Claesar France more, because otherwise I probably have him as an immediate neighbor and I'm scared of such a possibility.

-with due respect, k.u.k. Minister of Silly Walks.

So that means that you do not think that Claesar is England? Why not?

It's all about probabilities.
Given: I am Austria and Claesar is not France (the first assumption is obvious and the second is a necessary condition of the question.
1. Claesar is not Austria, because I am.
2. Claesar can be either England, Germany, Italy, Russia, or Turkey, because he is neither Austria nor France.
3. Assuming equal probability of all outcomes, P(E)=20%.
4. All other countries Claesar could be are my immediate neighbors, so P(N.ofA.)=P(E')=80%

Of course, the probabilities are not equal, so the approach of looking at the press for each country and discussing all signs for or against someone being it would yield more accurate results. This is more psychological than mathematical, so my analysis in this sphere is by no means accurate, but I got the following results, in order of descending probability:
1. Austria (funnily enough);
2. Italy (TFB is playing it there, but I would expect the same or similar moves from Claesar, too);
3. France (that was a rather convincing performance);
4. Turkey (the silent one);
5. England (there were so many impersonators I now half believe the true England will stay silent all the time, if they even exist);
6. Russia (with all the angry messages about Russian strategy, probably not);
7. A bored spectator (we cannot outright discard such a possibility);
8. Germany (no idea why anyone would urge the others to attack him. Not in 1902).

Well, If I’ve been kicked out of France, I guess I’ll head to turkey and do press for them. Until someone else comes along anyway.

Austria: We are in a good position to go against Russia, but I don’t know how much I can trust you as long as you are in Greece and Serbia. If you are willing to let me take one of those, I would be more willing to talk.

Russia: I’ll get back to you after seeing what Austria does. For now, Armenia is a DMZ.

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:43 pm

Well, If I’ve been kicked out of France, I guess I’ll head to turkey and do press for them. Until someone else comes along anyway.

Austria: We are in a good position to go against Russia, but I don’t know how much I can trust you as long as you are in Greece and Serbia. If you are willing to let me take one of those, I would be more willing to talk.

Russia: I’ll get back to you after seeing what Austria does. For now, Armenia is a DMZ.

As I said already, I will proceed with a Lepanto unless (until) I get stabbed by Italy. Nice to see the last remaining position filled in, though

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:52 pm

As I said already, I will proceed with a Lepanto unless (until) I get stabbed by Italy. Nice to see the last remaining position filled in, though

So be it.

I’m that case then,
Russia: How would you feel about an alliance against Austria and eventually Italy. I need to handle them in the southern Balkans, but we are in a good position to go against Austria in their homeland as well.

Sincerely,
The Sultan

Claesar wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:32 am

Squigs44 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:59 am

I find it difficult to believe you are France, but I suppose it is possible.
I also find it difficult to believe that you actually think I stabbed France by building A Munich, as it is tactically better than Berlin in every way offensive and defensive.
I also find it hard to believe that France would back off of England after building a Fleet in Brest.

But hey, whatever you need to say to throw England off works for me, so long as France is sensible at the end of the day.

I gave you a chance to be honest, but this is just utter garbage. Munich is not the best tactically. How does A Mun attack England? You made the most aggressive build towards me possible. If I follow your ridiculous advice and move to Belgium, I'll be unable to defend Mar/Par when you move into Bur behind me.

My offer was fair, but I'm reconsidering now.

A Ber doesn't attack England though either. You have yet to show me a reason that a Berlin build is better than a Munich build. Remember that France moved into Bur last phase, towards me, when I said I was letting it be. Building a unit in Munich to protect that isn't a declaration of war on France.

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:52 am

Temasek22 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:34 am

No one is even active here sadly

Winter doesn't seem to be a period of very intense negotiations. Hopefully thing will cheer up now.

To Italy: let's follow through with the Lepanto. I see that you are indeed a friend.

Excellent. I'm glad to hear this. Let's permanently silence the silent Turk.

Squigs44 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:38 pm

A Ber doesn't attack England though either. You have yet to show me a reason that a Berlin build is better than a Munich build. Remember that France moved into Bur last phase, towards me, when I said I was letting it be. Building a unit in Munich to protect that isn't a declaration of war on France.

A Berlin build would've been better because you'd still have a French ally. And Berlin protects Munich just as well.

Yes, I moved into Burgundy last turn. I agree this is slightly anti-German. Doesn't warrant a hostile A Mun build though.

TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:20 pm

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:52 am

Temasek22 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:34 am

No one is even active here sadly

Winter doesn't seem to be a period of very intense negotiations. Hopefully thing will cheer up now.

To Italy: let's follow through with the Lepanto. I see that you are indeed a friend.

Excellent. I'm glad to hear this. Let's permanently silence the silent Turk.

Turkey isn’t very happy about that.

Sincerely,
The Sultan

Claesar wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:38 pm

Squigs44 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:38 pm

A Ber doesn't attack England though either. You have yet to show me a reason that a Berlin build is better than a Munich build. Remember that France moved into Bur last phase, towards me, when I said I was letting it be. Building a unit in Munich to protect that isn't a declaration of war on France.

A Berlin build would've been better because you'd still have a French ally. And Berlin protects Munich just as well.

Yes, I moved into Burgundy last turn. I agree this is slightly anti-German. Doesn't warrant a hostile A Mun build though.

Building a unit in a home SC when another country has an army next to it is not an aggressive move and you know it. After all this press I have half a mind to actually force my way into Burgundy just to show you what aggressive looks like.

It really seems to me that Claesar is really a country that has a vested interest in killing France. Think about it:

1. Leaving Bel to the Germans and Portugal to whoever wants it.

2. Bringing the Germans to the brink of war over a move that they explained and France could counter (i.e. If Germany brought A Mun-Bur, France could use Mar and the pushed back army to take it back).

Do these seem like things that France would do? I think Claesar is either England or Italy, and MOSW's analysis from earlier today supports that they are Italy.

Sincerely,
The Sultan

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:43 pm

It really seems to me that Claesar is really a country that has a vested interest in killing France. Think about it:

1. Leaving Bel to the Germans and Portugal to whoever wants it.

2. Bringing the Germans to the brink of war over a move that they explained and France could counter (i.e. If Germany brought A Mun-Bur, France could use Mar and the pushed back army to take it back).

Do these seem like things that France would do? I think Claesar is either England or Italy, and MOSW's analysis from earlier today supports that they are Italy.

Sincerely,
The Sultan

I was about to mention TFB's performance as Italy, hands down the most convincing of all up to this point, but I found out that he didn't, as I thought, predicted the move into Trieste, but explained it afterwards, and this was about the only clue I had against this statement.
So yes, looks like we've figured this out.

However, as the Kaiser und Konig, I shall continue regarding TFB as the official representative of Italy for all diplomatic purposes until he states the contrary or Claesar makes a convincing argument about him really being Italy.

Oh dear, the sudden reintroduction of mafia might pull me away from that lol

Kaiser, my German neighbour, wherever you might be in this thread - join me in arms against France? This may be crass, but let's put it this way - with the way France has been playing, at least working with this lil' island nation won't get you inane declarations of war through questionable moves lol

Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:16 pm

The Minister of Silly Walks wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:43 pm

It really seems to me that Claesar is really a country that has a vested interest in killing France. Think about it:

1. Leaving Bel to the Germans and Portugal to whoever wants it.

2. Bringing the Germans to the brink of war over a move that they explained and France could counter (i.e. If Germany brought A Mun-Bur, France could use Mar and the pushed back army to take it back).

Do these seem like things that France would do? I think Claesar is either England or Italy, and MOSW's analysis from earlier today supports that they are Italy.

Sincerely,
The Sultan

I was about to mention TFB's performance as Italy, hands down the most convincing of all up to this point, but I found out that he didn't, as I thought, predicted the move into Trieste, but explained it afterwards, and this was about the only clue I had against this statement.
So yes, looks like we've figured this out.

However, as the Kaiser und Konig, I shall continue regarding TFB as the official representative of Italy for all diplomatic purposes until he states the contrary or Claesar makes a convincing argument about him really being Italy.

Honestly I think he entirely knows what he's doing by moving to Trieste, which would explain why he continuously asked Austria to bounce either of Bud or Vie, hoping to sneak in behind.