Forum Public Press Game Thread

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Claesar
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#341 Post by Claesar » Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:40 pm

My tournament is finished and I'm good to go! Let's get this disappointing farce of a show back on the road.
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Minister of Silly Walks
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#342 Post by Minister of Silly Walks » Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:47 pm

Claesar wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:36 pm

England - TMOSW? - F

This may seem harsh as you took Belgium due to neighbouring incompetence, but you left North Sea open. NEVER DO THAT! North Sea is worth more than an SC. Your moves made me want to cry. Besides, what's your plan from here? You lose Norway and Belgium next year, so that build is futile. Find an ally.
TMOSW isn't England, either, much for the same reason as EMC. We don't have a candidate for England and I doubt we ever will.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#343 Post by Minister of Silly Walks » Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:22 pm

Claesar wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:36 pm

Italy - FlyingBoat - C

You were outguessed. Did you know the great players win 80-90% of their 50-50s? There's so much you can do to sway the odds in your favour. Can you ensure success this year?
Also, winning 80% of 50-50 guesses is still luck, not skill.
If the two options are equal in all respects, this is a fully random 50-50 guess, and your chances are just that. If not, as the case usually be, then one option must be superior in some way. The opponent can take this into account and plan to counteract accordingly. Then you can account for that in your own plans and readjust them. Then everything descends into such a cycle of recursion that the choice must be made at random lest the brains start boiling, and the chances are at best marginally different from the aforementioned 50-50.
Of course, there are other mechanisms of adjusting the odds, such as press, but in most cases those follow the same pattern (Is this piece of press genuine? Or is it made to make me follow option a)? Or is it made to make me think it is made to make me follow a) so I would do b) instead and not counteract a)? Or...)
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#344 Post by e.m.c^42 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:29 am

I'm not exactly sure anymore even just to negotiate on behalf on someone, when the neighbours (who are also being negotiated on behalf by someone else) have players who don't order the best, or even decent movesets offered, lol

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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#345 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:45 am

Minister of Silly Walks wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:22 pm
Claesar wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:36 pm

Italy - FlyingBoat - C

You were outguessed. Did you know the great players win 80-90% of their 50-50s? There's so much you can do to sway the odds in your favour. Can you ensure success this year?
Also, winning 80% of 50-50 guesses is still luck, not skill.
If the two options are equal in all respects, this is a fully random 50-50 guess, and your chances are just that. If not, as the case usually be, then one option must be superior in some way. The opponent can take this into account and plan to counteract accordingly. Then you can account for that in your own plans and readjust them. Then everything descends into such a cycle of recursion that the choice must be made at random lest the brains start boiling, and the chances are at best marginally different from the aforementioned 50-50.
Of course, there are other mechanisms of adjusting the odds, such as press, but in most cases those follow the same pattern (Is this piece of press genuine? Or is it made to make me follow option a)? Or is it made to make me think it is made to make me follow a) so I would do b) instead and not counteract a)? Or...)
This argument is wrong. I win a massive majority of my coinflips. The tactical odds might be 50/50. But if you're any good at tactics or press you can dramatically increase those odds. I went in depth on this on previous School of War posts which I highly recommend reading.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#346 Post by Minister of Silly Walks » Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:38 am

jmo1121109 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:45 am
Minister of Silly Walks wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:22 pm
Claesar wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:36 pm

Italy - FlyingBoat - C

You were outguessed. Did you know the great players win 80-90% of their 50-50s? There's so much you can do to sway the odds in your favour. Can you ensure success this year?
Also, winning 80% of 50-50 guesses is still luck, not skill.
If the two options are equal in all respects, this is a fully random 50-50 guess, and your chances are just that. If not, as the case usually be, then one option must be superior in some way. The opponent can take this into account and plan to counteract accordingly. Then you can account for that in your own plans and readjust them. Then everything descends into such a cycle of recursion that the choice must be made at random lest the brains start boiling, and the chances are at best marginally different from the aforementioned 50-50.
Of course, there are other mechanisms of adjusting the odds, such as press, but in most cases those follow the same pattern (Is this piece of press genuine? Or is it made to make me follow option a)? Or is it made to make me think it is made to make me follow a) so I would do b) instead and not counteract a)? Or...)
This argument is wrong. I win a massive majority of my coinflips. The tactical odds might be 50/50. But if you're any good at tactics or press you can dramatically increase those odds. I went in depth on this on previous School of War posts which I highly recommend reading.
Could you give me a link, please?
Some statistics would be welcome, too.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#347 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:07 am

I go into it a bit here https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... 527#p89527

Also all SOW's ever held are available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Where multiple professors and top players on the site have covered this topic before.
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goldfinger0303
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#348 Post by goldfinger0303 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:40 am

Man, fora public press game there's next to no press, eh?
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#349 Post by Claesar » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:48 am

Well, I'm still staring at the map. Fleet Berlin means Squigs isn't Germany, so I don't know what to think right now. Perhaps TMOSW or EMC is Germany..
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#350 Post by goldfinger0303 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:49 am

Gonna give Germany a nice big ol' F for that build though.

Does Germany not realize how weak France is? And how he stands to gain....next to nothing off the downfall of France. Meanwhile should he take on England he'd get 3 SCs easily, and thats before he turns on Russia. An E/G with England in this strong a position (as surely the German would see to it that England remained in Belgium and Norway) just leads to a big bad Englishman staring at Germany with hungry eyes once F/R are down.

Because it's not like they're talking to each other.

It's not like they're developing a rapport that can be taken to the end game.

And more importantly Germany has a solid Italian ally who *is* communicating with him, has moved into position to assist Germany, and Germany just hung them out to dry. Italy, if I were in your shoes I'd be so pissed that I'd move to Tyrolia.

Austria, the more Russia focuses up north, the less resources he has to fight you. Maybe use this opportunity to focus down the Turk
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#351 Post by goldfinger0303 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:54 am

Also, if Russia and Turkey were actually communicating, I'd be a little worried if I were Austria.

There's a solid 50/50 at play with Bud/Serb/Vie should they communicate. Plus, Russia just needs to kick out to Bohemia and Vienna is near guaranteed come fall. Hey Italy maybe that Tyrolia move won't be so bad after all
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#352 Post by goldfinger0303 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:11 am

Also for those wonder how to coordinate via public press, something like this is best to do it.

Turkey: "I will be moving to Serbia. Russia, decide if you want to support me + move to Vienna, or try to take Bud this turn"

You set up a guaranteed move that your ally can build their moves off of.

More importantly, you can also use these moves to trick the opponent into doing a bad counter.

For example, the Smyrna situation. Austria can go to Italy "Hey, I'll support the convoy into Smyrna. You do a 50/50 between that and Syria"

Turkey's counters are Smryna-Syria and Con SH Smyrna. A 50/50.

This introduces a 50/50 where 25% of the time Italy successfully moves to Smyrna, 25% of the time Italy successfully moves to Syria, and 50% of the time the moves fail.

However (assuming Russia doesn't SH Bulgaria, or Austria anticipates this and taps), what Austria can do instead is a 50/50 themselves - between issuing the support as asked and doing a double supported move to Bulgaria.

Now the end result is something like this. 25% of the time Austria will end up in Bulgaria. 25% of the time Italy will end up in Syria, and 25% of the time Italy will end up in Smyrna. (Check my math though, it's very early for me and I'm still sleepy).

This of course forces Turkey to expand to 3 options (H Smyrna, H Smyrna with Con support, Smyrna-Syria) which will reduce the expected probability somewhat. But overall it's a very interesting but of game theory and attackers can usually hold a bit of an advantage by remaining ambiguous.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#353 Post by goldfinger0303 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:14 am

My point in the last post being that Austria should only offer support unconditionally (given trust is already established) if they don't actually intend to follow what they say, and a good defensive player will always take that into account.

I hope everyone follows. Because the only reason Austria offer support is to draw the Con support hold off Bulgaria and create an opportunity for themselves there.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#354 Post by Claesar » Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:03 am

goldfinger0303 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:11 am
...
Now the end result is something like this. 25% of the time Austria will end up in Bulgaria. 25% of the time Italy will end up in Syria, and 25% of the time Italy will end up in Smyrna. (Check my math though, it's very early for me and I'm still sleepy).
...
In this case, Italy ending up in Smyrna drops to 12.5% as Austria might not support it. Other than that you're right.

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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#355 Post by goldfinger0303 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:55 pm

Claesar wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:03 am
goldfinger0303 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:11 am
...
Now the end result is something like this. 25% of the time Austria will end up in Bulgaria. 25% of the time Italy will end up in Syria, and 25% of the time Italy will end up in Smyrna. (Check my math though, it's very early for me and I'm still sleepy).
...
In this case, Italy ending up in Smyrna drops to 12.5% as Austria might not support it. Other than that you're right.
I think I was factoring in Turkey successfully moving to Syria and Italy walking in
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#356 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:02 pm

@gold I like that analysis but it's a little lacking around Austria and tapping. The main reason for that is Russia made a move for Vienna last turn right? So that means that Austria is forced to assume that another move is coming. Either a supported move against Budapest, which would have to come from Galicia with Rum support to avoid risking Rum, or a solo move on Vienna. Austria needs a unit in Vienna to make any progress in this risky game they're playing. Therefore the best move set for them tactically is to move Trieste to Vienna with support from Budapest while using Serbia to either tap Rum or support hold Budapest. There's a few other options, but tactically it makes the most sense for Austria's needs.

Or at least...it was the best tactical move until I pointed it out, because once that's pointed out it means that because Serbia will be tied up, Austria cannot perform a 3 support attack on Bulg meaning that Turkey would be free to use Const to support hold Smyrna which is otherwise less likely to happen. Meaning the Italian and Austrian best move of supporting Tunis to Smyrna now becomes a little less tempting.

It's really this back and forth of assumptions that is hurting Italy and Austria drastically. The BEST move for Austria would really be to have Italy support himself into Aegean, forcing Austria's fleet to disband, letting him rebuild it as a more useful army to move against Russia or even Germany. But it's slightly less appealing to Italy since he faces a tougher battle taking Turkish centers without it.

The really weird part to me, is that all of the options that exist massively favor Italy and Austria and disfavor Russia and Turkey. A/I is on the verge of exploding into a massive dominating force while the west is in a gridlock...which makes Germany's build in Berlin baffling to me. It's only real purpose would be to take Sweden, but if that happens then Russia is weakened, speeding up the fall of R/T, meaning Austria grows at a rate probably quick enough to solo. In a normal game you could coordinate against a solo, but in a PP game it's damn near impossible if the opponent is a decent tactical player. The only saving grace was that Russia built North and is going to take Norway before the 2 German units are aligned. But England isn't likely to just forgive that and not break support in Norway.

The other baffling thing that I see is Italy intentionally hurting France. France is the weakest of E/G right now and the west is oddly balanced for it. But Italy sitting in Pied is throwing off that balance and will likely give G or E the leverage they need to break through. Italy is poised to start growing but not for another couple turns of attacking. Trying to delay western imbalance should be the goal, but that doesn't seem to be clicking for Italy. Very odd.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#357 Post by Minister of Silly Walks » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:24 pm

jmo1121109 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:02 pm

Or at least...it was the best tactical move until I pointed it out, because once that's pointed out it means that because Serbia will be tied up, Austria cannot perform a 3 support attack on Bulg meaning that Turkey would be free to use Const to support hold Smyrna which is otherwise less likely to happen. Meaning the Italian and Austrian best move of supporting Tunis to Smyrna now becomes a little less tempting.
That was a part of what I pointed out: as every instance of analyzing situation causes changes in the situation, the information must be re-analyzed and after several iterations everything goes so deep into the game theory the moves could as well be random.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#358 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:26 pm

Minister of Silly Walks wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:24 pm
jmo1121109 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:02 pm

Or at least...it was the best tactical move until I pointed it out, because once that's pointed out it means that because Serbia will be tied up, Austria cannot perform a 3 support attack on Bulg meaning that Turkey would be free to use Const to support hold Smyrna which is otherwise less likely to happen. Meaning the Italian and Austrian best move of supporting Tunis to Smyrna now becomes a little less tempting.
That was a part of what I pointed out: as every instance of analyzing situation causes changes in the situation, the information must be re-analyzed and after several iterations everything goes so deep into the game theory the moves could as well be random.
Nah, if you're methodical in what is said when you can 100% manipulate things to your advantage. My win/draw percentage speaks for itself on this topic too :)
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#359 Post by Minister of Silly Walks » Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:48 pm

jmo1121109 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:26 pm
Minister of Silly Walks wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:24 pm
jmo1121109 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:02 pm

Or at least...it was the best tactical move until I pointed it out, because once that's pointed out it means that because Serbia will be tied up, Austria cannot perform a 3 support attack on Bulg meaning that Turkey would be free to use Const to support hold Smyrna which is otherwise less likely to happen. Meaning the Italian and Austrian best move of supporting Tunis to Smyrna now becomes a little less tempting.
That was a part of what I pointed out: as every instance of analyzing situation causes changes in the situation, the information must be re-analyzed and after several iterations everything goes so deep into the game theory the moves could as well be random.
Nah, if you're methodical in what is said when you can 100% manipulate things to your advantage. My win/draw percentage speaks for itself on this topic too :)
Yes, I admit I didn't really take the press into consideration. But that's more of psychology than math, so it is rather difficult for me to make any reliable calculations there.
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Re: Forum Public Press Game Thread

#360 Post by jmo1121109 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:32 pm

Minister of Silly Walks wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:48 pm
jmo1121109 wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:26 pm
Minister of Silly Walks wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 7:24 pm


That was a part of what I pointed out: as every instance of analyzing situation causes changes in the situation, the information must be re-analyzed and after several iterations everything goes so deep into the game theory the moves could as well be random.
Nah, if you're methodical in what is said when you can 100% manipulate things to your advantage. My win/draw percentage speaks for itself on this topic too :)
Yes, I admit I didn't really take the press into consideration. But that's more of psychology than math, so it is rather difficult for me to make any reliable calculations there.
It's not just the press, even in a gunboat game, the way people perceive the math is what allows the removal of luck. The perception is predictable.
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