Page 126 of 264
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:58 am
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 am
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:36 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:14 am
Exactly.
I think there is as much of a chance that worcej is mafia as either of the Companion claimants individually. Also, if worcej is not the BH, the fake Companion claimer might be the real BH.
If that's the case, they should counteclaim worcej. We don't want to lynch the BH.
The only way we win with the BH is if the last mafia we lynch is his last target.
Worcej is a safe Lynch. Worst case he’s BH best case he’s RP or scum.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:59 am
by Chaqa
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:47 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 am
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:36 am
I think there is as much of a chance that worcej is mafia as either of the Companion claimants individually. Also, if worcej is not the BH, the fake Companion claimer might be the real BH.
If that's the case, they should counteclaim worcej. We don't want to lynch the BH.
And even if that happens, we caught worcej then. If worcej is BH and we lynch him we have not caught anyone else.
I don’t understand why everyone is so quick to chance a 50/50 on a town PR when we have a confirmed non-town to lynch.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:06 am
by KalelChase
Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:46 pm
teacon7 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:44 pm
Let's talk about the VT claimants.
Chaqa: town +3, maf 0, reaver +2, BH +1
emc: town 0, maf +5, reaver +2, BH + 1.
bozo: town +3 maf +0 reaver +2 BH 0.
Temasek - town 0 maf 1 reav 1 bh 1.
ND: town 3 maf 1 reav 1 bh 0.
Foxcastle: town 0 maf 0 reav 1 bh 0.
What are these numbers supposed to mean?
It's his spreadsheet. Lynch him! lol... sorry, long day. (still on page 115)
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:07 am
by KalelChase
teacon7 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:53 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:48 pm
At what point do we consider ending the phase?
I'd love to hear from Itshosuke and Kalel.
Tom should weigh in.
emc needs time to read up and post.
we might consider quieting down so they have less to reread
I'm pretty sure I've put all my info out there... Itshosuke is the one laying-low/playing-shy. If you guys need something else from me let me know.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:07 am
by KalelChase
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:29 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:26 pm
Chaqa wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:22 pm
Yes. It would make sense for the Roleblocker to claim Companion, wouldn't it? That way they could verify their RB claims.
In which case, we really want to know who they roleblocked, don't we?
Yes, but this is why I also think damo needs to (either today or Day 3) scan Kalel, because if they both have roleblock powers, both of them can verify themselves as needed. There's an outside chance Kalel is the RP, though, which is why I think we scan him first - Super is either Companion or Roleblocker, but Kalel is either Companion or RP, therefore scan priority.
When was there a case against me for being RP? I admit I'm scanning through the thread pretty quickly. I'm disgusted and slightly honored at the same time.
My daughter calls me Optimist Prime, but that's a play on transformers. (on page 121 now)
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:08 am
by xorxes
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:53 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 am
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:36 am
I think there is as much of a chance that worcej is mafia as either of the Companion claimants individually. Also, if worcej is not the BH, the fake Companion claimer might be the real BH.
If that's the case, they should counteclaim worcej. We don't want to lynch the BH.
You may not want to, but you should. The BH has a win condition that most likely causes a town loss. I am fine lynching worcej if he is the BH or not, he is a risk to town either way. Do you not find worcej's claimed targets suspicious?
Maybe, I'm not sure what choice of targets would be best for a fake claim to be believable. Why do you think he chose them?
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:08 am
by damo666
Chaqa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:59 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:47 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 am
If that's the case, they should counteclaim worcej. We don't want to lynch the BH.
And even if that happens, we caught worcej then. If worcej is BH and we lynch him we have not caught anyone else.
I don’t understand why everyone is so quick to chance a 50/50 on a town PR when we have a confirmed non-town to lynch.
Not everyone and not quick.
However, that notwithstanding, maybe because worcej is > 50% BH and PR has back up if mislynched (hence another townclear and proven scum).
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:08 am
by peterlund
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:53 am
I suppose to be ultra safe we could have 3 out of teacon Peter Tom and darg vote for one of those four but is that just getting silly?
It is safe against one switch with:
W1 xorxes
W2 2 voters
W3 2 voters
W4 3 voters
In the odd case that 2 switches the last minute, we catch one other scum, which is not too bad.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:09 am
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:54 am
dargorygel wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:12 am
I know worcej MIGHT be reaver. But the logic there doesn't seem to me to be support that he is. Just that he isn't NOT the reaver. He might be scum, but so WILL be one of the companions.
Vote a companion. They have backups.
Which also will rule out another VT claimant from the potential scum list.
I don’t necessarily disagree but we have to lynch up to seven people... we have to avoid mislynches as much as possible.
We have to lynch up to six people. We don't want to waste lynches on people we don't have to lynch.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:10 am
by damo666
peterlund wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:08 am
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:53 am
I suppose to be ultra safe we could have 3 out of teacon Peter Tom and darg vote for one of those four but is that just getting silly?
It is safe against one switch with:
W1 xorxes
W2 2 voters
W3 2 voters
W4 3 voters
In the odd case that 2 switches the last minute, we catch one other scum, which is not too bad.
We ain't got that many trustees!
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:11 am
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:55 am
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:17 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:14 am
Exactly.
This is valid and because people are sometimes a tad slow there might be a late wagon on one or both of these which is why I am reluctant to read them and prefer to restrict it to the vt list.
I think taking the risk of a mislynch is very unnecessary.
I explained why counting the lynch of BH as "not a mislynch" is numberwise inaccurate.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:11 am
by KalelChase
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:20 pm
KalelChase wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:26 pm
xorxes wrote: ↑Wed Jan 01, 2020 5:09 pm
In fact, on a quick reread, I could not find a single opinion from him on the matter.
Then you're not looking really hard. If you really want I can give you the post number.
@Kalel, can you give me the post number? I didn't spot it on a new reread either.
Post 615 (page 31) - responding to RDR saying he'd claim if you cleared.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:14 am
by xorxes
Chaqa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:59 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:47 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 am
If that's the case, they should counteclaim worcej. We don't want to lynch the BH.
And even if that happens, we caught worcej then. If worcej is BH and we lynch him we have not caught anyone else.
I don’t understand why everyone is so quick to chance a 50/50 on a town PR when we have a confirmed non-town to lynch.
We need wagon info. We need to reduce the number of unknown VTs. Lynching between the Companions gives us that. And we don't lose a Companion even if we mislynch.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:16 am
by KalelChase
xorxes wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:33 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2020 6:19 pm
As for finding the scum:
I know that Goldfinger is scum.
We assume that either ItsHosuke / KalelChase is scum, don't we?
Worcej cannot possibly be town.
Bozo seems very likely to be scum to me.
EMC has gone completely into hiding and my guess is he completes the set.
So why is everyone piling on worcej and wasting a whole day of wagon annalysis instead of putting some pressure on those we need to sort out?
You're the captain... Point us at someone. Are you and Jamie in agreement it's Bozo? He's not even a wagon right now.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:20 am
by bozotheclown
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:08 am
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:53 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:42 am
If that's the case, they should counteclaim worcej. We don't want to lynch the BH.
You may not want to, but you should. The BH has a win condition that most likely causes a town loss. I am fine lynching worcej if he is the BH or not, he is a risk to town either way. Do you not find worcej's claimed targets suspicious?
Maybe, I'm not sure what choice of targets would be best for a fake claim to be believable. Why do you think he chose them?
If worcej is not the BH and therefore his targets are fake, choosing VT claimants could get town to mislynch a VT. The random chance of his 3 targets being VT claimants at the time he claimed was (6/17)*(5/16)*(4/15), or 2.9%.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:24 am
by xorxes
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:20 am
xorxes wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:08 am
bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:53 am
You may not want to, but you should. The BH has a win condition that most likely causes a town loss. I am fine lynching worcej if he is the BH or not, he is a risk to town either way. Do you not find worcej's claimed targets suspicious?
Maybe, I'm not sure what choice of targets would be best for a fake claim to be believable. Why do you think he chose them?
If worcej is not the BH and therefore his targets are fake, choosing VT claimants could get town to mislynch a VT. The random chance of his 3 targets being VT claimants at the time he claimed was (6/17)*(5/16)*(4/15), or 2.9%.
Why would town want to lynch his targets though? They are not more or less likely to be scum just because they are BH targets.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:37 am
by BunnyGo
damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:08 am
dargorygel wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:03 am
So how can we switch to a companion vote without messing up the voting plan? We need to be United on a wagon, right?
I will switch back if needed.
But for now ##vote itshosuke (really superstition)
Yes. As long as Bunny, Xorxes and I don't move votes and nobody joins either wagon it doesn't matter where other votes go (though obviously should be restricted to Itso Kalel or worcej).
Btw Darg nice to both still be here day 2 eh?
Too many da names.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:39 am
by BunnyGo
dargorygel wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:12 am
I know worcej MIGHT be reaver. But the logic there doesn't seem to me to be support that he is. Just that he isn't NOT the reaver. He might be scum, but so WILL be one of the companions.
Vote a companion. They have backups.
Which also will rule out another VT claimant from the potential scum list.
If the vote is between companions, I would like to strongly register my vote for hosuke.
The claim once might came (coached)
The awkwardness of asking questions in public as a noob
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:39 am
by BunnyGo
Please don’t. You’re smarter than this.
Re: MAFIA 52: You Can't Take The Sky From Me [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:44 am
by ItsHosuke
I was expecting to talk my way out of a scum role but Superstition was actually the companion. I'm at a loss of words.
##vote Kalel