MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

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Kitsune
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Tema, Kitsune and the Suicide Blondes

#601 Post by Kitsune » Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:39 pm

Temasek22 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:38 am
This has, I have to say, been a bizarre D1 compared to my three earlier games.

There has been no major wagon to discuss on, and activity has, frankly, been quite low.

Let's talk about no lynch then.

Usually the D1 lynch is almost always town, though wagon movements and other factors could help entering mid/late game, which is the main argument to not NL D1 anyways despite the unfavourable statistics against us town.

However, with small rival mafia factions who want each other dead as much as we want them to, and a hostile 3P in the mix. I would say it is harder than usual to obtain useful info from a lynch. That and the average of 2.5 NKs each night that might hit scum as well, are probs why no lynch might work this game.

However, odds of lynching maf and hostile 3P are significantly higher than previous games,with 7/23 compared to 6/20, 5/20 and 5/19

Tell me what you guys think, I want the best for us.
So I actually like this reasoning. I like that you're considering it and it gets you towncreds (which I will log into my sheet later today as I trawl through the thread). I've never been especially happy with the meta that a D1 no-lynch vote is scummy, even despite the near universal trend of hitting town.

On the other hand it's been explained to me (each game actually) that it's important to start generating a voting pattern and that a dead town is a small price to pay for that.

Narrowing things down further,

You're correct that we're more likely to lynch maf or hostile 3P because there are simply more of them.

You're correct that mafia and 3P actually have a fair chance at killing mafia over town this game, which is a relief given how many nk options are out there.

Interestingly this is the first game I've seen where specific non-powered town roles know they're on a 3P's target list. So we may well see fVTs opening themselves up to lynch or mafia kill to deny Jack his first win condition - or at least have a plausible reason why Town might falseclaim as well.

I'm not saying that's what our dear Dr Chipotle is doing. But I'm not not saying that either.

So overall I'm going to split my read and response here.

I do read Tem's thought process as helpful and townie.

I feel there are 12/23 targets it would assist Town to lynch, to varying degrees of benefit.

As such, I feel town needs to vote to lynch - even if I haven't chosen a target yet.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#602 Post by Chaqa » Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:41 pm

ND wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:38 pm
If that's what you think @Chaqa then you clearly don't read what I write. But then again, I shouldn't expect anything more from you.
I don't know who you think you are or why you think you know me, but if you have a problem you can fuck off.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#603 Post by ND » Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:50 pm

Spicy

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Re: Tema, Kitsune and the Suicide Blondes

#604 Post by BunnyGo » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:02 pm

Kitsune wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:39 pm
Temasek22 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:38 am
This has, I have to say, been a bizarre D1 compared to my three earlier games.

There has been no major wagon to discuss on, and activity has, frankly, been quite low.

Let's talk about no lynch then.

Usually the D1 lynch is almost always town, though wagon movements and other factors could help entering mid/late game, which is the main argument to not NL D1 anyways despite the unfavourable statistics against us town.

However, with small rival mafia factions who want each other dead as much as we want them to, and a hostile 3P in the mix. I would say it is harder than usual to obtain useful info from a lynch. That and the average of 2.5 NKs each night that might hit scum as well, are probs why no lynch might work this game.

However, odds of lynching maf and hostile 3P are significantly higher than previous games,with 7/23 compared to 6/20, 5/20 and 5/19

Tell me what you guys think, I want the best for us.
So I actually like this reasoning. I like that you're considering it and it gets you towncreds (which I will log into my sheet later today as I trawl through the thread). I've never been especially happy with the meta that a D1 no-lynch vote is scummy, even despite the near universal trend of hitting town.

On the other hand it's been explained to me (each game actually) that it's important to start generating a voting pattern and that a dead town is a small price to pay for that.

Narrowing things down further,

You're correct that we're more likely to lynch maf or hostile 3P because there are simply more of them.

You're correct that mafia and 3P actually have a fair chance at killing mafia over town this game, which is a relief given how many nk options are out there.

Interestingly this is the first game I've seen where specific non-powered town roles know they're on a 3P's target list. So we may well see fVTs opening themselves up to lynch or mafia kill to deny Jack his first win condition - or at least have a plausible reason why Town might falseclaim as well.

I'm not saying that's what our dear Dr Chipotle is doing. But I'm not not saying that either.

So overall I'm going to split my read and response here.

I do read Tem's thought process as helpful and townie.

I feel there are 12/23 targets it would assist Town to lynch, to varying degrees of benefit.

As such, I feel town needs to vote to lynch - even if I haven't chosen a target yet.
As frost pointed out you’ve accidentally voted for computer.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#605 Post by xorxes » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:02 pm

damo666 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:41 pm
The Bob wagon is bad.

He's probably town and probably male.
So you still believe he was trying to draw Jack's kill, even though he said he was also joking and also reaction testing, all at the same time?

I would have found it more believable if he had said that he had no idea what he was doing, but claiming that he was doing a mix of the three (all of which had been suggested by other people as possible explanations) just doesn't add up.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#606 Post by xorxes » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:10 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:04 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:41 pm
The Bob wagon is bad.

He's probably town and probably male.
I want to give towncred to Damo for this. The fact he recognizes the Bob wagon is bad is minor, but pointing out the male/female thing is a big town+ for me, it's something to consider that I don't think scum would necessarily be worried about so early.
The one person who cares about males vs females at this stage is Jack the Ripper. For everyone else it should be a non-issue not even worth discussing.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#607 Post by Temasek22 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:11 pm

OK, I'm back.

We don't do daylight savings here, so I got here an hour early I guess. :lol:

No lynch seems like it wouldn't work so I'm open to voting Bob (who gives a panicking sort of feel) and Hosuke (whose posts appear quite scummy and is my eternal nemesis)

I'll get back 30 mins later

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#608 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:12 pm

About 5 pp to catch up. Back soon.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#609 Post by xorxes » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:14 pm

BionicMole wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:17 pm
FlaviusAetius wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:40 pm





Computer_Genius hasnt done anything this game, and thats exactly why you shouldnt lynch him, Im SUPER against lynching lurkers day 1, theres a thousand reasons why you could be lurking, but most importantly we can actually have meaningful discussion Day 1, but if all we do is chalk it up to lurking, not a good look. Plus then active scum can just hide in plain sight, ontop of this we can force the lurkers to speak when their on, no reason to vote them...plus if they are really inactive they are modkilled anyways seems pretty useless ESPECIALLY on Day 1
That is the reason for getting my vote, to force them to say something so we can get their input. Same as it was when I had my vote on Bunny. I don't have anyone that is jumping out at me as 100% scum so if I am going to be part of a mislynch I would rather it be on someone that hasn't helped solve the mystery. We get information with the least amount of damage imo.
We don't really know the amount of damage, they may end up being Sherlock Holmes, Dr Watson, etc. So it's a risk.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#610 Post by Chaqa » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:15 pm

Computer Genius is currently set to be modkilled or replaced. Seems silly to vote for him. The Bob wagon stinks.

I urge people to join me on Dargo.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#611 Post by Kitsune » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:16 pm

frostwind wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:19 pm
Kitsune wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:15 pm
[ /quote ]
Hi Kit! You might have noticed our worries about your one-meme-and-go. Any opinions on the game strategy? (also your quote is broken, so if you don't actually want to vote Computer then I recommend you clarify).
Hi Frost, welcome to the group!

Thanks for pointing that out, I hadn't actually intended to vote to Computer and the broken quote was an oops. I'll find a better target to put that on since I see he's at risk of being modkilled (but then so was I).

I had planned to post Ello Ello Ello a lot D1 as sort of a Vecna tribute, but then I got sidetracked and it seemed less funny coming back in at this stage. So yeah :) Back to your regularly scheduled Kit, slightly distracted but interested in digging.

Also one note - I believe Jack is 3P nk immune, but is wholly vulnerable to mafia kills.

In my view:

Chaqa's reveal was a mistake, but 75% chance it's genuine. Townlean, but not necessarily PTownlean.

Bozotheclown reads less driven than usual. He's listening to other suggestions and talking with other players. He's less "sure" about his One True Way and seems entirely reasonable. In most places I would take this as townlean, but based on recent meta I'll scumlean him instead. (and sorry bozo if you do turn out to be town - I prefer this playstyle, so I don't want to punish it if this is TownBozo too).

Based on my Chaqa lean, I'm looking more closely at Dargo but I don't see the point Chaqa is trying to make. I mean I understand what he says but I don't see the same things in Dargo's posts, so null-read for now.

I haven't looked closely at Computer, but feel a vote in his direction would be a waste at this point.

Looking at the other top wagon I see BobMcBob... and I hate to say it, but his activity (more than mine to be sure) versus content (almost non-existent from my brief ISO just now) reads as very scummy.

##Vote BobMcBob

(and if we are wrong, then at least he has more time for the Masters)

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#612 Post by BobMcBob » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:16 pm

That gambler hardclaim was going to be my one "good" play all game and now you all want to lynch me for it? #@%$, maybe I should have tried a different "good" play.

Man, I hate it when people come and jump on me for backtracking and stuff. Look, you're not going to get a straight answer out of me, because I want to leave nuances in there. I don't want to tunnel because if I'm wrong you'll all lynch me anyways and I likely will be (and even if I'm right you'd probably lynch me for being off-meta). I'm sorry that you all don't like my playstyle, but if that's why you want to lynch me, go ahead. I see I'm not contributing anything anyway, even when I try.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#613 Post by Chaqa » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:18 pm

I really just don't see the case on Bob.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#614 Post by xorxes » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:21 pm

FlaviusAetius wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:29 pm
xorxes wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:28 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:17 pm


There are people who you should judge their language choices closely, Vapor is not one of them.
Vapor made a huge blunder in the first attempt of the meme game by not reading the publicly available role descriptions. I don't put it past him that he made a similar blunder this game. I think he's probably town, but I have a "he could very well be Jack the Ripper" based on that wording in the back of my mind.
everyone saw the wording, and its also not a uncommon thing to say, its very unlikely that is the case
That's not the point. The point is that he was purporting not to know whether Jack needed to kill the females with his own knife for them to count. But he obviously knew that Jack's kills were done using his knife. There are other possible explanations, but one explanation is that he was trying to pretend to know less than what he knew.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#615 Post by e.m.c^42 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:23 pm

Miracle upon miracles, emc has returned in time to catch up. I see that Kit has appeared, and from bot our current top wagon is Bob for some reason, followed by a noob lurker who likely forgot about game. I have no idea why these are our top two choices, lol

Bob seemed ok to me, unless there has been development in recent pages? At least, not scummier than any others in his category
and still voting for comp at this point seems...strange to me, especially since it's not made of new players (looking at xorx and bozo here)

will do consolidation in a bit

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#616 Post by damo666 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:26 pm

BobMcBob wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:16 pm
That gambler hardclaim was going to be my one "good" play all game and now you all want to lynch me for it? #@%$, maybe I should have tried a different "good" play.

Man, I hate it when people come and jump on me for backtracking and stuff. Look, you're not going to get a straight answer out of me, because I want to leave nuances in there. I don't want to tunnel because if I'm wrong you'll all lynch me anyways and I likely will be (and even if I'm right you'd probably lynch me for being off-meta). I'm sorry that you all don't like my playstyle, but if that's why you want to lynch me, go ahead. I see I'm not contributing anything anyway, even when I try.
Could you try saying again what you mean please. I cannot understand this.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#617 Post by xorxes » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:26 pm

e.m.c^42 wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:23 pm
Miracle upon miracles, emc has returned in time to catch up. I see that Kit has appeared, and from bot our current top wagon is Bob for some reason, followed by a noob lurker who likely forgot about game. I have no idea why these are our top two choices, lol

Bob seemed ok to me, unless there has been development in recent pages? At least, not scummier than any others in his category
and still voting for comp at this point seems...strange to me, especially since it's not made of new players (looking at xorx and bozo here)

will do consolidation in a bit
It's better than not voting for anyone...

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#618 Post by xorxes » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:29 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 8:42 pm
It is looking more likely that Computer_Genius is not going to come back to vote, and that would be a dangerous slot if it is a scum slot and gets replaced.

##VOTE Computer_Genius
Yes, scum that don't need to explain their D1 actions because they were not responsible are dangerous.

There's also the risk that they are a town PR, but the hope is that if they were they would have been more invested in the game.

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#619 Post by Chaqa » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:30 pm

Voting for Computer_Genius is a waste. He's about to be replaced or modkilled.

Voting for Bob is slightly better, but that wagon reeks.

Join me on Dargo!

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Re: MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

#620 Post by e.m.c^42 » Sun Nov 24, 2019 10:32 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:32 am
BionicMole wrote:
Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:19 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:52 pm


Eh...I think if I do the same thing every game it’s gonna get old. Gonna go lurk the rest of the day. See you after EOD.
After how involved Bunny was last game, this gives me the wrong vibe, He's getting my vote until he comes back and stops lurking.

##Vote BunnyGo
I know you're still new (so am I), but this is the scummiest post (even more than bozo asking for all the 3P focus) so far.

Kitsune not being here at all is the only scummier thing.

Oh man...I'm soooooo tempted to change my vote.

@Xorxes & Einstein (emc) what do you two thing?
Not necessarily, it seems like solid "safety" logic, especially for a new player. There were a good number of both town and scum motivations for doing what you did, so taking a surface-level stance for anti-wifom does not appear particularly scummy, especially when it's used for most of other lurker votes.

Looking at his other posts up til now, he seems towny enough from skim

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