So I actually like this reasoning. I like that you're considering it and it gets you towncreds (which I will log into my sheet later today as I trawl through the thread). I've never been especially happy with the meta that a D1 no-lynch vote is scummy, even despite the near universal trend of hitting town.Temasek22 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:38 amThis has, I have to say, been a bizarre D1 compared to my three earlier games.
There has been no major wagon to discuss on, and activity has, frankly, been quite low.
Let's talk about no lynch then.
Usually the D1 lynch is almost always town, though wagon movements and other factors could help entering mid/late game, which is the main argument to not NL D1 anyways despite the unfavourable statistics against us town.
However, with small rival mafia factions who want each other dead as much as we want them to, and a hostile 3P in the mix. I would say it is harder than usual to obtain useful info from a lynch. That and the average of 2.5 NKs each night that might hit scum as well, are probs why no lynch might work this game.
However, odds of lynching maf and hostile 3P are significantly higher than previous games,with 7/23 compared to 6/20, 5/20 and 5/19
Tell me what you guys think, I want the best for us.
On the other hand it's been explained to me (each game actually) that it's important to start generating a voting pattern and that a dead town is a small price to pay for that.
Narrowing things down further,
You're correct that we're more likely to lynch maf or hostile 3P because there are simply more of them.
You're correct that mafia and 3P actually have a fair chance at killing mafia over town this game, which is a relief given how many nk options are out there.
Interestingly this is the first game I've seen where specific non-powered town roles know they're on a 3P's target list. So we may well see fVTs opening themselves up to lynch or mafia kill to deny Jack his first win condition - or at least have a plausible reason why Town might falseclaim as well.
I'm not saying that's what our dear Dr Chipotle is doing. But I'm not not saying that either.
So overall I'm going to split my read and response here.
I do read Tem's thought process as helpful and townie.
I feel there are 12/23 targets it would assist Town to lynch, to varying degrees of benefit.
As such, I feel town needs to vote to lynch - even if I haven't chosen a target yet.