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I think it is actually better to lynch Captmeme than let him be modkilled.

We'll be in a good position if we can keep getting COP scans and Guns into confirmed town hands. If that costs us a unclear VT then so be it.

This is a safe play as it doesn't threaten our GS, Nurse or COP.

Who would scum then target? I'm VT, DemonRHK is as-clear, perhaps Tom again but they'd need to RB DemonRHK so COP can get another scan off? If they target anyone else it would reduce the non-clear list and could provide us with more infomation than they want to give us.

@CaptMeme - thanks for stepping in and sorry this one hasn't worked out. It's incredible that you lurk so much that we didn't even know if you were lurking or not playing.

##vote CaptMeme

Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:48 pm

Maniac - It would be very difficult for me to be convinced to vote for thamrick at this point.

noted

Tom Bombadil wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:47 pm

Who are your top 3 lynch targets today foxy?

Looking at that now, and have some time to reread, so will be going over Bo_, rdrivera, reedeer, bozo, mean, and Balki.

DemonRHK is still my top scumread, but either I'm wrong or his wagon will come up when another Watcher does, so I'm not going to push that. If Captainmeme is really going to capitulate, I expect that means he's town; we'll see what happens, but I don't expect to stay on him.

If the vote was right now, I'd probably fall on Balki. Bozo hasn't done anything that made me think he was Town, so he'd be another option. I might have said Tham, as he was feeling scummy to me for a while, but he's seemed townie to me more as of late.

How do you feel about what Maniac is proposing?

Actually, Maniac's plan might be best. I'm not really sure about a lot of people right now, and Captainmeme would be hedging a one-townie loss against a two-townie loss...

A hero hath returnest.

##GM Note:

Yoyoyozo has replaced Captainmeme

thamrick wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:09 am

1) That's fair I suppose. So knowing that Balki claimed a RB N1 too, which do you think is more likely:

a) you were Nurse RB'd, Balki was scum RB'd
b) you were scum RB'd, Balki was Nurse RB'd
c) Balki is lying about his RB

1) I assume you mean D2, not D1.

3) When you have time, please find it for me.

4) Let me know if I'm following you correctly, you're saying you think the scum team has a mafia veteran on it because they would know of the strategy to skip a NK and make Tom look good, but you're also saying you don't think it is likely that that is what happened with Tom?

I agree that simply based on numbers, it is likely that someone who is considered an experienced mafia player is on the mafia team. Who does not qualify as an experienced mafia player from our remaining alive player pool in your opinion?

New question: What is making you unsure of Tom's clear status, besides that it is a viable strategy? What is making you doubt his claim?

thamrick wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:12 am

To elaborate on my new question - it seems like you're scumreading Tom and that's making you doubt his claim. What is making you scumread him?

1.)It could be either of the first two. The reason I did not claim was because I thought it was (a) but (b) is just as possible. I doubt they holstered their RB, but the might have

The reason I think that there is a veteran is not because of that strategy, but I guess its because I have all ways scum read at least one of those guys, and I also don't have the best Idea of who is scum, and so I think there has been some coaching.

Tharmaric, Demon, fox, mean, me, and bozo are all not veterans in my eyes. Some are close, but nothing like vasha and bo and balki and the like.

Again, I think tom is basically town, but I think there is a possibility he is not.

Yo yo yo yoyoyozo! Welcome to the game

Also welcome yoyo. What do you think of meme, and dargs actions before you. Take your time to read up, but that is the question we all want to know of you.

Yoyoyozo wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:50 pm

A hero hath returnest.

Welcome Yoyo! Would you please let us know who has access to the mafia QT?

Hellenic Riot wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:50 pm

##GM Note:

Yoyoyozo has replaced Captainmeme

More reason to lunch him. Welcome yoyo

Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:08 pm

Yoyoyozo wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:50 pm

A hero hath returnest.

Welcome Yoyo! Would you please let us know who has access to the mafia QT?

What’s a mafia QT?

Give me a little time to figure out the game. I’m notoriously good at end game analysis so give me some time to get a good profile on everyone

If I haven’t played with you before, can you tell me a little about your history with forum mafia? And who dun it?

People I’ve played with before: who dun it?

We're pretty sure that darg was guilty but meme was innocent.

@reedeer - referencing question 1 from my previous post, why do you consider option c) a nonpossibility?

Also, why do you not consider RHK an experienced mafia player? I just quickly looked back at the last 10 or so games and he has played at least 5 of them. And I know he was at least in 1 of M19 or M20 with me.

On a reread of Bo_sox, I'm inclined to think he's Town.

P. 44. Calls GM to ask what's happening with Supersteve and if he'll be modkilled. If he's scum, he knows that Supersteve is town. Why raise the issue? Would it make sense to try to push a modkill that's already likely (BB points out that GMs townslipped Steve when they didn't immediately replace him)?

Bo and Rjm get into early on Day 2, P46-49. This interaction makes Bo look townie to me. What was Rjm told in the Mafia QT? If he was told to lurk, he didn't. Was he told to play town by asking questions and building cases? If so, he comes right out of the Night to spend an hour and a half on it with Bo. I just can't see this being a scum v. scum right after they spent 24 hours chatting in the Mafia QT. If Bo was scum, and Rjm got advice in the Mafia QT on how to improve his game and his towncred, that interaction either should have not included Bo at all, or should have come out looking a lot different.

I think Rjm was told to go ask questions and build cases against townies. He tries this tack of getting in people's again with Brainbomb and Thamrick a bit later (though he's less aggressive about it). More on Rjm later, though.

P. 108. Bo pushes hard against lynching ND and for lynching Yavuz after the cop claim. Scum would have known that Yavuz and ND were both town, but not that Yavuz was not the cop and that ND wasn't the miller. Bo starts out saying that he didn't believe Yavuz's claim (and as a participant in the last game, he has good precedent for that; Bo seems to see what Yavuz was up early on, even if he didn't state it outright), and pushes heavily for lynching Yav rather than ND. If Bo is scum, he might think that Yav is the cop and want to get rid of him with a lynch, but it's also the case that he knows that if ND flips miller and Yavuz is cop confirmed, the resulting machinations would possibly blow cover on the rest of Town's PRs. He would have to weigh that against being on the wagon to lynch the cop. But given he played with Yavuz in the last game, I think it's more likely he just didn't believe the cop claim, and was willing to trade Yavuz for the scum on the other side of the equation.

His D1 and D2 votes are less useful. He sits on Brain and then ND respectively.

After sitting on ND for D2, he would have known that it might look suspicious to vote for Yav, particularly if he flipped cop (which I think would be scum's default assumption). So it looks towny to me that he went after Yav anyway.

@Yoyo,

I think our best evidence comes from Day 1 and Day 2 votes. We got mafia on both days.

Day 1 the wagons were Jamiet (lynched and flipped town), ND (turned out to be a VT), and Balki (received a town-aligned role PM). Jamiet was at only one vote for most of the day, but he received a large set of votes in the final 10 minutes or so of the phase.

Day 2 we had a clear VT (Maniac) thanks to an Oracle flip. Maniac set up some lynch pools that mostly included folks who had been pretty lurky. At the end, it came down to RJ (new player), Ezio (later flipped VT), and Vashta. Vashta got a bunch of votes, and then RJ got a bunch of votes at the end, and flipped scum.

Looking carefully at the final hour or so of each of those days is likely your best bet to get organized.

On Day 3, Yavuz claimed Cop with a guilty scan on ND. DemonRHK, who had previously claimed Watcher, counterfeited the Cop claim based on the alleged Night 1 visit. Yavuz stuck to his guns, and we lynched ND, who flipped VT. Yavuz was shot early the next day, and flipped eccentric VT. The day 3 vote is harder to interpret because we don't really know what Mafia knew about the claims (they have stalker), but my working theory is that Mafia would have sat back and tried to stay out of the fray as town sort of melted down around a fake claim.

My scumreads are MLQ, Bo_Sox, and....wait who is that, I can't quite read it...oh--Yoyo!

Maniac is clear VT. Tom is clear after a NK save. Reedeer is very likely town based on a Day 1 vote. Bozo is very likely town because Mafia killed Brainbomb after brainbomb claimed cop with an innocent scan on Bozo. DemonRHK is clear Watcher or else he will die when the real watcher flips. Thamrick is uber-towny.

Vashta is maybe town because he was the alternate wagon to RJ on day 2, but harder to know because the lynchpool was artificially constrained.

Foxcastle and rdrivera have good voting records, but the timing of their votes is harder to interpret, so they are null.

Also, Tom claimed to be saved last night, and the Nurse who did the saving is still alive, so Tom is basically clear.

The bot "issue" with votes cast the same minute being shown in the wrong order in the vote tracker, should now be fixed. (Sorting is now done using message ids instead of message posting time.)

Reconsidering some of Rjm's scum/town reads.

P. 43. Leaves Balki, Bo_sox, Mean, rdrivera, reedeer, and Tham off his EON reads. Everybody else on the list gets pretty clear scum or town read, so did he leave off null reads (and if so, it seemed like Mean should be on there as town...) ?

He scumreads:
Darg, DemonRHK, Ezio, ND, Snowy, Supersteve*, Vashta, and Yavuz.
*(not scumread directly, but would lynch)

He townreads:
Bozo, Brain, Foxcastle, Maniac, Tom.

This is end of Night 1, so there's possibly been a discussion of bussing in general, or even who to bus, in the Mafia QT. So, which is more likely: that he didn't bus anyone in his EON reads, or that Darg, DemonRHK, or Vashta are scum?

P. 62. New set of scumreads (ordered most scummy to least):
Ezio, bo_sox, Tom, ND, Vashta, thamrick.

Vashta is the only of Rjm's scumread that appears on both lists and is otherwise not cleared... His first scumread of Vashta seems based on Vashta lurking, but his second is, "arguments for town Vash I can't handle and don't properly trust yet so I'm going with gut again." Which is weak, but to be clear, his scumreads on everyone were pretty equally weak. Jamiet also voted Vash.