Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[Tom Bombadil]

I get that Maniac.

But what I am arguing is that I'm the more likely one to be cop. Following that reason they would have killed me, the one who doesn't fakeclaim and who has breadcrumbs.

There is a reason they chose to kill the less likely cop candidate - and I think its because they thought the risk-reward of softclearing bozo was higher.

[Foxcastle]

I cannot type today. "Let's all wish..." -_-

[Tom Bombadil]

lol. What an honor(?)

[Foxcastle]

In the last game, when Bo was also scum, he thought keeping Brain around helped sow confusion. By the time it came time to kill Brain, Bo had been lynched and the prevailing argument was that Brain is actually pretty good at this, and it would be wise to also eliminate a PR claim. I'm not sure that informs us much on what happened N2 here...

What do you mean?

I mean that there is an item of evidence that at least one member of the scumteam (Bo), in an entirely different game, under different circumstances, said he didn't want to kill Brainbomb because he thought Brainbomb's confusion was useful to scum.

[Foxcastle]

I get that Maniac.

But what I am arguing is that I'm the more likely one to be cop. Following that reason they would have killed me, the one who doesn't fakeclaim and who has breadcrumbs.

There is a reason they chose to kill the less likely cop candidate - and I think its because they thought the risk-reward of softclearing bozo was higher.

Brain fakeclaims a lot. How much does he counterclaim, because that's a different animal... The scumteam had time to change their vote, but not a lot of time to discuss it. Maybe they concluded that Brainbomb counterclaiming was more likely to be real.

[thamrick]

*a single tear rolls down my cheek* it's been a long, windy, long-winded road. First and foremost I'd like to thank my one true savior, town-Jesus. Peace out and town-God-Tom bless!

[Tom Bombadil]

I suppose thats fair Foxy. I don't really have an answer to that, as I'm not sure brains proclivity to counterclaim. And I suppose there may be some extra weight to a cc compared to a claim.

[MeanLaQueefa]

Given that brainbomb already claimed gunsmith, I don't think there was anyway scum would believe brain would claim a different, less powerful, PR than he actually was (if scum thought he faked gunsmith, but was really cop). Doing that would be too reckless and stupid for brainbomb to attempt. Hopefully... I don't know brain's play outside this game, but that seems like a really dumb thing to do and I don't think they bought it.

[Foxcastle]

Also, who do they think Town is going to try to protect? They might have assumed that the Watcher would be more inclined to believe your claim and watch you, so they might have thought Brain's NK would be more likely to succeed.

[MeanLaQueefa]

There's been a lot more dead and random people looking at the thread lately. Wonder if that means we're being more entertaining than we realize...

[Foxcastle]

Dead and randos who can see the Mafia and God threads... <ominous music>

[Tom Bombadil]

I don't think would have been too worried about the watcher. They would be trying to kill the most likely cop.

Like I said when I initially claimed. With watcher hidden, they can watch me every night and unless scum trades me 1 for 1 (watcher would have to reveal or make it clear who visited me in case he died) then I keep getting scans off.

I think they would target who they felt was most likely cop.

[thamrick]

Yeah. I don't really know how to read into it. There's a lot of variables. They obviously thought Tom's claim had some merit as they tried to NK him the next night.

I don't think we can draw the conclusion that Bozo is the GF from Brain being killed, but I don't think we can rule it out either.

Basically at this point, all of the non-clears have a positive in the corner and it just remains to decide which is more likely a false-positive.

me - RB claim, hounded Bo all D4

Foxy - hounded RJ D2. Stuck out the vote on him.

Vashta - counter wagon to RJ, no push for Yav

reedeer - votes for Jamiet and Bo, RB claim D1

rdrivera - Bo's counterwagon of choice, votes on Jamiet, Rj, Bo claimed guilty scan

bozo - Brain's inno claim

Balki - D1 RB claim, Jamiet push D1, made Bo lead wagon

Yoyo - meme's possible townslip

I can't think of anything for MLQ.

[Foxcastle]

Might not be on EON. My reads...

Balki is my next vote for scum. Bozo has been a consistent null read, so I could vote for him after some thought. Dargomemoyo could also get a vote from me, since at this point we are getting to the tipping point where null lurkers will become dangerous deadweight.

Rdrivera, Reedeer, and Vashta are town leans for me, still. Tham - Still feels scummy to me, but I admit I don't have a real strong case on that.

Tham had seemed scummy to me for a while, but it was apparently just a phase he was going through, and I now town read him. Mean is a townread for me, as well; I don't think scum would have slipped the things she did if they had seen the inside of the Mafia QT.

[Foxcastle]

Sigh. I really am bad at typing today. Disregard that that sentence on Tham with the dash in the third paragraph, it's left over from copy-pasting.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I made a follow up post about this, but it didn't get posted for some reason earlier.

Balki, you would have gotten scrutiny like I did if you were on the yav wagon, ND is definitely where you wanted to be if you're scum, both wagons were town that day so him flipping town is completely irrelevant.

And yes, you didn't bus rjm, but that makes the most sense because rjm was a hard scum to bus because he was the witch, mafia's most powerful role. Bo didn't bus him either.

Exactly.

There are two narratives that explain what wagon someone ends up on. Scum might have voted for scum in order to get town cred. Scum might have voted for town in order to lynch townies. You have successfully stated the possible scum reasons to end up on the wagons that I've ended up on.

What you have failed to do is recognize the Town reasons for voting how I've voted, or engaged with my stated reasons backing up my votes. I don't vote without having a large explanation in thread, so that I can be held accountable for my votes and my reasons.

I think your view of me has been tainted, and you are making a mistake. I actually believe now that you are town making that mistake.

In any event, I agree I need to die, and I'd like to be shot first thing tomorrow.

[MeanLaQueefa]

So if I'm town now, who is scum balki?

[Balki Bartokomous]

So if I'm town now, who is scum balki?

Here is the pool of potential scum, in my eyes, ordered from most likely to least likely:

Bozo, Yoyo, Vashta, Foxy Knoxy, rdriv

We should be trying to kill Hooker, which means we kill Balki and one in this group other than Bozo tomorrow. PRs stay hidden. Then we kill 2 the next day.

As soon as we flip Hooker, we probably flip Bozo next. And these pools might be even smaller and better defined if we get some useful PR info tonight.

I think we are likely to win soon, and I'll buy you a drink in the God thread.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Obviously it gets easier if Tom's scans are useful. Tomq's scans should be interpreted as: "Innocent means could be GF," and guilty means "could be Hooker." We lynch the Hooker pool first.

[thamrick]

Oh, in case I didn't mention it already, Maniac was right D2, it definitely makes the most sense to not claim RB's. We don't want scum knowing who is available to NK without protection the next night.

RHK should say whether he was RB'd first. If not, he can reveal his Watcher info. I feel like it's relatively safe to say he won't have Nurse protection tonight, unless the Nurse believes him much more than I do lol.

Nurse can decide to reveal if they think it's a good time tomorrow. We're close to auto-win depending on what happens tonight.

If I don't figure out who shot Ezio soon, it's literally going to drive me crazy.