Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[Foxcastle]

Well, that got interesting.

1) I think Thamrick is right on the order of operations in terms of killing ND and what that reveals to us.

2) I think Balki is right that, if there's a chance town-ND has a bulletproof vest, we should shoot him. Surviving the shot townclears him and he's still alive, or if he's scum, he won't survive. The former gives him a chance to survive at least, the latter is a fine outcome anyway. (Unless the bulletproof vest protects him from lynching, in which case there's little difference...)

3) While I get Bo's logic, I'm not sure I'm okay with the predicate of "killing the cop gets 2 scum", since if there are two scum in there, we get them anyway without killing Yavuz first.

I find Yavuz's claim consistent with his play from last game, where he was town and had a strong tendency toward martyrdom (including voting for himself when he was a leading wagon, logging off and not coming back until after the lynch, though he was miraculously saved).

But in case a shot can't be got... ##VOTE ND

[Tom Bombadil]

##vote yav

[thamrick]

Thanks HR! I wondered whether the vest made you immune to NK or not.

So, I still think we shoot ND. It'd be unfortunate if we waste a gun on a vested townie, but it's pretty unlikely he has a vest (1/8).

If he is vested, there's a 7/8 chance Yav is lying so we could lynch him. We know ND is town so I don't think we waste a lynch on figuring out whether he's Miller or VT.

The only if in this equation to me is if we actually have a gun.

[Hellenic Riot]

##GM Note: The vest does not make you immune to a lynch, but in that scenario it would not be revealed at all. As it was enchanted by the friendly wizard, it is invisible until called upon. It protects from gunshots and night kills.

[Foxcastle]

Thanks, GM

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE ND

Now we know Demon or yavuzovic must be fake claiming, so I agree we need to see ND's alignment. Even ND seems to agree, maybe he is a Miller, or maybe scum trying to sound like town.

[rdrivera2005]

I am starting to think Yav could be Stalker. But still not sure about lynching him.

I have to leave in 30 minutes to a family birthday and I am not sure I will be around at EOD.

[Hellenic Riot]

D3 Vote Count 2.0

ND (6): yavuzovic, Maniac, thamrick, reedeer1, rdrivera2005, Foxcastle
yavuzovic (3): DemonRHK, bo_sox48, Tom Bombadil
MeanLaQueefa (1): Balki Bartokomous
bozotheclown (1): MeanLaQueefa
VashtaNeurotic (1): bozotheclown
captainmeme (1): ND

Not voted (2): VashtaNeurotic, captainmeme

End votes (1/8): DemonRHK

captainmeme has not made the required two posts.

Currently ND is set to be lynched!

You have 2 hours and 38 minutes remaining.

[captainmeme]

What exactly has happened, sorry? We've had a Cop claim?

[thamrick]

What exactly has happened, sorry? We've had a Cop claim?

Not sure how far back to catch you up.

Maniac threatened RHK with a gun. He claimed Watcher, said he watched Brain N1, Tom N2.

Someone, we don't know who, shot Ezio

Yav claimed Cop. Said he investigated Brain N1, ND N2. Received a guilty scan of ND.

RHK says his Watcher report didn't show Yav visiting Brain N1.

We want to shoot ND.

[bo_sox48]

I have no idea what is mathematically best. Math is not my thing. I see that there are multiple ways to get a 2-for-1 tradeoff and that there is a chance that if yav is the real cop, he's more useful than a VT. Barely.

The fact of the matter behind my entire analysis is that I don't believe that yav is the cop, I do believe that ND is town, and I do believe that RHK is the watcher. That is the point that I have been hoping to make, but it is quite clear that rationalizing through the possibilities is harder than flipping someone that is probably not mafia and seeing where we're at, so this town doesn't want to do it. I'm going to give it one last go anyway, and if yall decide to put ND out of his misery instead of trying to actually determine his alignment yourselves, then that's fine. Hopefully it works out.

I put together what I felt was a good case against ND earlier in this game and then brainbomb said this:

"Why does newb scum!rjmcf vote scum!ND and stay on him thru EOD."

If you can actually read through that gibberish, brainbomb makes a good point. Rj voted for ND and then left, despite ND being a leading wagon. If ND were, as I supposed, a more important mafia role than Jamie, why would Rj have done that? This point trumped my case.

I pointed out that Rj did the exact same thing to Tom on D2, and that is why I townread him as well.

If yall are going to suppose that ND is mafia, you are going to have to first reconcile this point. Yavuzovic, interestingly enough, has never bothered to do so despite apparently having a guilty scan on him. If you can manage that, you are a better investigator than our cop as well as me, because I tried to think of something that might explain it. I wanted there to be something that explained it. If there is, I'll be pretty happy, honestly.

If yall are going to suppose that ND is probably not mafia, like I do, then lynch him anyway, you're doing so under the premise that he is the miller. I am not going to put my foot down on ND's throat on the premise that he is the miller because I do not particularly like lynching townies. Moreover, I would not ascribe to a 1-in-many chance that ND is the miller even if I believed that yav was the real cop and that RHK is the liar here.

I proposed a way to make this determination by reading thoroughly and making a definitive judgment as opposed to following a math equation. I thought there was a math equation to back me up, but there clearly isn't. If yall were to make a definitive judgment and say that yeah, you think ND is scum, and you could actually tell me why, and then follow that up with a good reason for thinking either yav or RHK is scum and tell me why, I would be more comfortable with things.

That said, I'm leaving for work shortly and I won't be here for EOD, so if you have any desire to try and change my mind, you have about a half hour.

[reedeer1]

@Bo
I understand your sentiment, but lynching ND is the safer option. I am of the opinion that ND is town, and that Yuav is scum, but just in case he is telling the truth, we should lynch the non PR. What would be best is shooting ND, and then lynching the looser in that situation. You are making yourself look scummy in your attempts to lynch a un cc'd PR.

[Foxcastle]

If ND isn't going to counterclaim, that means he's either Vanilla Townie, Miller, or stupid scum. And if VT or Miller, well, that's bad, but we do get to lunch a liar after that, which is good.

If Yav is scum, he'll still go down if we lynch ND first. He will still make it much, much easier to find the last scum. Because if we don't have ways to scan potential scum, that makes it easier for scum to get to LyLo.

[bo_sox48]

I don't care if I look scummy. Solving the game matters more to me than how I appear to all of you. I'm still alive fairly deep into a game as town for the first time in quite awhile and it wouldn't make sense for me to die at least in the next night or two, so I want to solve the game. Don't try and intimidate me into changing my gameplay, reedeer.

Shooting ND would be best, but it's quite apparent that we don't have a gun. If we do have a gun and it's hidden, then the gunsmith should probably reveal that at the EON so that they get what would be a third gun off out of four and point us toward someone that may well be mafia. Not now.

[thamrick]

Bo, that's fair. I think the most likely scenario is that ND flips town and Yav is lying.

I get that lynching townies sucks.

However, I don't think we can afford to risk dunking the cop just because he potentially misplayed his hand as town. A townie is most likely going to die tonight anyways.

If Yav actually is cop, and we lynch him today, we likely lose another PR or a townclear tonight. That would really suck. We're still in good shape, but we don't know whether ND is Miller or scum and we probably have to lynch him regardless.

If Yav isn't cop, we've lynched scum. As you said, we haven't confirmed RHK, but he looks really good. ND is pretty close to clear. I think it's possible you're scum with Yav and one of the other two and know that lynching Yav will at least make one of your teammates look good enough to possibly get into endgame.

I don't see why the risk is worth it. Yes shooting an innocent ND doesn't feel good. However, it is a better way to getting the info than lynching Yav.

*EDITS* I agree. It seems as if we don't have a gun. I'm not sure why Maniac is being sketchy with that info as it's equally as obvious to them if we don't shoot ND today. Lynching ND now isn't as good as shooting him, I agree. But I still think it's the right move. I'll think it over some more though.

[yavuzovic]

Guys, don't shoot me or ND,
After EoD,
IF I'M CLEAR, you shoot RHK or Mean
IF I'M LYING, I will be volunteer to be shot.

[thamrick]

Lynching ND today - no chance of using the vest if he happens to have it. I'm fairly sure that regardless of the outcome of this, we're going to catch at least one scum so not the worst loss.

My gut initial argument against it was that it forces us to use a lynch tomorrow on the outed scum and we don't get info to get us closer to finding the other scum. However, it's a reasonably safe assumption that GS is able to get another gun out tonight. So we can just shoot them at the start of the next day.

I still don't see why it makes Yav the better lynch today. Yav looks suspicious on reread, but like I said. He did hint at being cop earlier.

Are there any conspicuous claim creates preassure on somebody? I mean does anyone always criminate a player?

There's a cop and he investigates somebody. If a person charges each other, that might mean he have really strong suspicious.

[thamrick]

Guys, don't shoot me or ND,
After EoD,
IF I'M CLEAR, you shoot RHK or Mean
IF I'M LYING, I will be volunteer to be shot.

Why wouldn't you want to shoot ND?

[thamrick]

Guys, don't shoot me or ND,
After EoD,
IF I'M CLEAR, you shoot RHK or Mean
IF I'M LYING, I will be volunteer to be shot.

Why wouldn't you want to shoot ND?

How would you be clear if we don't know ND's alignment?

[DemonRHK]

Guys, don't shoot me or ND,
After EoD,
IF I'M CLEAR, you shoot RHK or Mean
IF I'M LYING, I will be volunteer to be shot.

To hell with that. Why the hell are you even bringing Mean up?
Maniac, I have confidence you didn't waste a bullet on Ezio. PLEASE shoot this scumbag. Or shoot me and hang this scumbag. Don't let this come down to Night Action roulette. If he's the hooker (which I assume) we are super in there.