MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

I really do apologize, I just haven't had my usual bandwidth for WebDip the past week.

Not that lack of participation to the extent I've dropped off is acceptable, but I have been trying a new method that involves less traditional scumhunting. I am bad at traditional scumhunting, because I see things I think are scummy and then look for confirmation, which is usually easy to construct. I have had better success by looking at nulls and looking at sets of people that could be scum. (It worked for Chaqa and Dargo last game, and put me on a much better path the first iteration of this game).

So, sorry for sucking, but also manage your expectations.

What have you learned from applying this method?

Who are your reads?

[Foxcastle]

@Fox what scum groupings have you found that work?

Part of my problem is that I keep/kept coming back to Sulit/Kitsune/Yuuki (RIP)/Kalel, and was a little worried that I was just tunneling on people I didn't know. Maniac, Neph, and Dargo also make me twitch.

Rdrivera is kinda a big question, but leaning town for now.

I'm pretty sure BunnyGo is town, I think Chaqa is probably town.

[BunnyGo]

@Fox what scum groupings have you found that work?

Part of my problem is that I keep/kept coming back to Sulit/Kitsune/Yuuki (RIP)/Kalel, and was a little worried that I was just tunneling on people I didn't know. Maniac, Neph, and Dargo also make me twitch.

Rdrivera is kinda a big question, but leaning town for now.

I'm pretty sure BunnyGo is town, I think Chaqa is probably town.

Do you have 20 minutes?

[EspressoPatronum]

I have a lot of re-reading to do.

"Vision" should "look" as soon as possible. I obviously trust you.

I have to ask... how does it help us to know Gamora? Does anyone besides EP see this?

I am still interested in catching the SK. I hate that blue guy. Without restating my reasons, I'll add that if I AM Gamora... that gives me more urgency.

I've been thinking about the idea of passing stones around among 'clear-ish' people. I like keeping scum guessing, but it does leave the position of them unsure. (Reacting to Kit's discussion, mostly.) IF we could keep track of them, it would be good. But I don't see how we could. At first, I thought of proposing a 'give it back' policy. But I don't think we know who GIVES it, if we receive one.

Giving back a stone, though IS a kind of clear, if we could figure out a way to do it.

If you had a stone, who would you give it to?

lol
Wouldn't answering this question give scum deduction information? YOU wouldn't answer, and neither should I.

Although I understand, I think, the question. Aren't you just asking for my townreads?
I'm still mentally catching up, but:
I believe Jamie.
I sorta believe EP (with some doubt.)
Your fake claim makes you a sorta clear. (Speaking of which: @EP, why does chaqa's fakeclaim make you scumread him?)
Kit
Others, at this point, I am swinging on, or still thinking.

I thought it was scummy because it was different from the BB and Maniac fake claims.

In BB's tracker claim, he rescinded the claim quickly, only using it to get a reaction from rdr and Fox. While we know BB was town, his fake had an element of towniness if you accepted his stated intent. At the time, not believing his stated intent (ie. To gain information) meant you would find the action scummy, but believing his stated intent would make the action towny.

In Maniac's vig claim, it seemed too risky to come from scum, as a lie=death to the real vig. An important note here is that the real vig could disprove the fake claim without a CC. Also, Maniac's tone in the claim posts made it seem like a joke.

In Chaqa's stone claim, I saw no intended help to the town + there was no danger besides a real CC (which benefits scum with an item tracker). Since the time of my posting, Chaqa has said his intended goal with the fake claim was to buy Maniac some breathing room if Maniac had used the stone. This seems like a legitimate goal, so the only question now is whether we find it believable.

I'm considering Chaqa's reasoning for the claim, I find it less scummy than having no reason but more scummy than not fake claiming at all. I'm not sold on whether I believe his stated intent behind the fake claim.

@darg do you find Chaqa's reasons believable? Would you have found the action town indicative even if Chaqa gave no reasons?

[EspressoPatronum]

At the risk of channeling bozo,
What do y'all think of my roots of a plan? Can a stone pass be used to provide a clear? (On the basis that Thanos and Scum wouldn't give a stone back... while a townie would.)

How could the mechanics of this work?
Perhaps...
0) once the thief is gone
a) stone holder announces the pass
b) the stone recipient keeps mum
c) the next day, the recipient returns the stone
d) Hulkoid protects the original holder (who announced) if it is at night.
e) When the stone is returned, the original clears the passee/passer IF appropriate.

Dargo, you are really channeling Bozo (sorry Bozo, can't miss this chance,lol).

Town have only one sure stone now and it's the Vision one. You are really suggesting he risk giving it to scum or SK and expose himself? That's a so bad idea that I can't even say it's scummy motivated.

So, from Day 1 we know Thanos is among the group:
- Neph
- Rivera
- Bunny
- Kitsune
- KalEl

You are assuming Thanos has the Time Stone, which would mean he/she was on the Yuuki wagon as well. Guess who the only person who fits that is?

It's you. Rivera.

He just Thanos-slipped.

Gotcha.

It's a pretty fair to assume the SK has the time stone now, but I guess you could call it a slip if you squint hard enough when you're reading it.

Might as well add it to the ever-growing list of SK!rdr evidence anyway.

[BunnyGo]

##VOTE SULIT

very willing to change later...

[EspressoPatronum]

NOT saying now... with the thief around.

When the Thief is gone it might work with a sort of ring of round-robin and passing forward, but it would need to be done in Day Phase to avoid night kills impacting the process.

I tend to agree that it's not worth the risk.

Right now with the Thief (which I understand you're not saying) it would go from "risky" to "suicidal", at night especially.

With the order of operations the way they are, at night Yuuki could have announced he was going to pass the stone and been robbed and killed before the transfer actually took place.

At day the biggest risk is their getting lynched, and if the wrong person announces they're passing the previous owner of the stone can deny this.

Aye... taking off my bozo hat
(Bozo, if you're reading this... I DO actually enjoy your plans, and think that we more often should/could follow them)

Back to reality...

Again I ask (EP, but anyone) what value does EP have in figuring out Gamora? Didn't EP just paint a target on 'someone's' back?

Thanos is the only one who 100% knows who Gamora is.

My argument is this:
P0. Thanos wants to lunch Gamora to start NKing with an active soul stone
P1. If more NKs speeds up the game
P2. And a faster game means we hit lylo/mylo sooner
P3. And town hitting mylo/lylo sooner is bad for town
C. Then it is bad for town to allow more NKs.

Considering that conclusion, I think it's in our best interest to have an idea on who Gamora might be so we can avoid lynching them, which in turn prevents more NKs. It'll be bad if scum gets the soul stone, but it's worse if the SK gets it first.

[EspressoPatronum]

Aye... taking off my bozo hat
(Bozo, if you're reading this... I DO actually enjoy your plans, and think that we more often should/could follow them)

Back to reality...

Again I ask (EP, but anyone) what value does EP have in figuring out Gamora? Didn't EP just paint a target on 'someone's' back?

Well, assuming he's right then he just made you unlynchable.

Doesn't help mafia to night kill you so you're safe there.
SK can't night kill until he lynches you and is in the wagon.

I think it's useful for us to find Gamora as early as we can, just complicated by the fact that you can't know that we're right. I was going to look over the Day 2 voting patterns (especially early in the day before the wagons took over) to see if there was anything I couldn't explain that might point to Thanos having more information than he should do, but I looked at the sheer chatter in Day 2 and frankly it wasn't the priority.

I still will, we have 48 hours ahead of us (plus or minus 12... please Timestone wielder, grant us rest!)

How are we supposed to find Gamora? Why is everyone so worried about this?

It's a natural conclusion to all of the SK theories in N2.

[EspressoPatronum]

@
TEMASEK
KALEL CHASE
YUUKI

Each of you has posted less than the GM. Even given the volume of Bunny's GM calls, this is an inadequate level of participation.

I'm sure at least one of you is scum. I'll re-read you all on the train this afternoon and report my findings.

Until then, you signed up to play this game! So take part, dammit!!

I'm gonna go ahead and say yuuki won't be answering your prod.

He's dead.

[BunnyGo]

When the Thief is gone it might work with a sort of ring of round-robin and passing forward, but it would need to be done in Day Phase to avoid night kills impacting the process.

I tend to agree that it's not worth the risk.

Right now with the Thief (which I understand you're not saying) it would go from "risky" to "suicidal", at night especially.

With the order of operations the way they are, at night Yuuki could have announced he was going to pass the stone and been robbed and killed before the transfer actually took place.

At day the biggest risk is their getting lynched, and if the wrong person announces they're passing the previous owner of the stone can deny this.

Aye... taking off my bozo hat
(Bozo, if you're reading this... I DO actually enjoy your plans, and think that we more often should/could follow them)

Back to reality...

Again I ask (EP, but anyone) what value does EP have in figuring out Gamora? Didn't EP just paint a target on 'someone's' back?

Thanos is the only one who 100% knows who Gamora is.

My argument is this:
P0. Thanos wants to lunch Gamora to start NKing with an active soul stone
P1. If more NKs speeds up the game
P2. And a faster game means we hit lylo/mylo sooner
P3. And town hitting mylo/lylo sooner is bad for town
C. Then it is bad for town to allow more NKs.

Considering that conclusion, I think it's in our best interest to have an idea on who Gamora might be so we can avoid lynching them, which in turn prevents more NKs. It'll be bad if scum gets the soul stone, but it's worse if the SK gets it first.

Scum won't want the stone.

They'll know that eventually they might get lynched and Thanos get's the stone *while* looking good. Then he NKs them and wins.

No...if Vision reveals gamorra, she should live to EOG

[rdrivera2005]

the rdr vote is based on false logic

Please clarify?

The argument is based on the logic that Thanos would risk revealing himself for a non-soul stone. On D1. Why would Thanos do this? Thanos gets to play the long game. Just sit back. Wait for a chance to lynch Gomorra safely. Gather stones when possible. Cruise to victory.

RDR's play only makes sense if we assume he's not concerned about survival.

Exactly. I would add that we should be hunting scum and not SK at this point, but then everybody will say I am SK trying to change the focus.

Anyway, I did a re-read on Bunny as I suspected he could be budding me, but my conclusion is that he is either town or one of the best scum players I have ever seen. Pretty sure it's the first.

[Foxcastle]

@Fox what scum groupings have you found that work?

Part of my problem is that I keep/kept coming back to Sulit/Kitsune/Yuuki (RIP)/Kalel, and was a little worried that I was just tunneling on people I didn't know. Maniac, Neph, and Dargo also make me twitch.

Rdrivera is kinda a big question, but leaning town for now.

I'm pretty sure BunnyGo is town, I think Chaqa is probably town.

Do you have 20 minutes?

I will have 20 minutes in about an hour, probably.

[EspressoPatronum]

##GM note

Item thief can steal any item, this includes stones and items given out by the Smith

So when you wrote this:

Items in your item pool are immune to the item thief.

you meant "Items not given out yet" are immune?

Yes, items in the pool of items that could still be randomly given out

Noted. Thanks for the clarification!

[BunnyGo]

Part of my problem is that I keep/kept coming back to Sulit/Kitsune/Yuuki (RIP)/Kalel, and was a little worried that I was just tunneling on people I didn't know. Maniac, Neph, and Dargo also make me twitch.

Rdrivera is kinda a big question, but leaning town for now.

I'm pretty sure BunnyGo is town, I think Chaqa is probably town.

Do you have 20 minutes?

I will have 20 minutes in about an hour, probably.

Cool...I was thinking try researching like a trial. Pick a town or scum read you have and then do everything you can to prove that you're wrong. Post the results here. Best case you can make. On whomever.

[EspressoPatronum]

I believe the next EOD is 1100 25/09 (timestone not withstanding).

I have a hospital appt at 0915 so may well not be available.

It is therefore quite probable my vote as of about 12 hours out will stand.

Hope you're ok, damo! May the appointment bring resolution.

Yeah, good luck damo!

[EspressoPatronum]

Oh and as for my drop off on night 1 of posting, I had an all day job interview. Work does take precedent sometimes to this.

Best of luck on the results! Fingers crossed.

Thanks, I got the job offer the next day! Here's to the end of 13 months unemployment (the middle chunk due to surgery when job hunting had to disappear). And here's to having a spouse with a good enough job to carry me through.

Ayyy, cheers to that! Congrats :D

[EspressoPatronum]

16 Remaining players:

Town
E.P.
Jamiet

Scum/SK Group - based on presumption SK was on Bozo
Neph
Rivera
Bunny
Kitsune
KalEl

Scum Group
Chaqa
Damo
Dargo
Foodcoats
Fox - N1 RB claim
Maniac
Sulit
Temasek
Vapor

Just for categorization. The Scum/SK group is where we should prioritize lynching, IMO.

You have fourteen scumreads?

Chaqa must be playing the stats game. He wants to have a scumread on the whole scum team

[Chaqa]

16 Remaining players:

Town
E.P.
Jamiet

Scum/SK Group - based on presumption SK was on Bozo
Neph
Rivera
Bunny
Kitsune
KalEl

Scum Group
Chaqa
Damo
Dargo
Foodcoats
Fox - N1 RB claim
Maniac
Sulit
Temasek
Vapor

Just for categorization. The Scum/SK group is where we should prioritize lynching, IMO.

You have fourteen scumreads?

Lol no, I just broke everyone into two broad categories with no regard for read to demonstrate the optimal lynch pool is much smaller than people act.

[Chaqa]

When the Thief is gone it might work with a sort of ring of round-robin and passing forward, but it would need to be done in Day Phase to avoid night kills impacting the process.

I tend to agree that it's not worth the risk.

Right now with the Thief (which I understand you're not saying) it would go from "risky" to "suicidal", at night especially.

With the order of operations the way they are, at night Yuuki could have announced he was going to pass the stone and been robbed and killed before the transfer actually took place.

At day the biggest risk is their getting lynched, and if the wrong person announces they're passing the previous owner of the stone can deny this.

Aye... taking off my bozo hat
(Bozo, if you're reading this... I DO actually enjoy your plans, and think that we more often should/could follow them)

Back to reality...

Again I ask (EP, but anyone) what value does EP have in figuring out Gamora? Didn't EP just paint a target on 'someone's' back?

Thanos is the only one who 100% knows who Gamora is.

My argument is this:
P0. Thanos wants to lunch Gamora to start NKing with an active soul stone
P1. If more NKs speeds up the game
P2. And a faster game means we hit lylo/mylo sooner
P3. And town hitting mylo/lylo sooner is bad for town
C. Then it is bad for town to allow more NKs.

Considering that conclusion, I think it's in our best interest to have an idea on who Gamora might be so we can avoid lynching them, which in turn prevents more NKs. It'll be bad if scum gets the soul stone, but it's worse if the SK gets it first.

FFS we don't need to worry about Gamora AT ALL unless she's revealed by the Mind Stone,

[EspressoPatronum]

the rdr vote is based on false logic

Please clarify?

The argument is based on the logic that Thanos would risk revealing himself for a non-soul stone. On D1. Why would Thanos do this? Thanos gets to play the long game. Just sit back. Wait for a chance to lynch Gomorra safely. Gather stones when possible. Cruise to victory.

RDR's play only makes sense if we assume he's not concerned about survival.

Having other stones makes the SKs job of lynching Gamora a lot easier bcz of the Power Stone, so it's plausible that he'd take a small risk in revealing himself to get a Time Stone.